Bayesian fisheries stock assessment: integrating and updating knowledge

In this thesis the use of the Bayesian approach to statistical inference in fisheries stock assessment is studied. The work was conducted in collaboration of the Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute by using the problem of monitoring and prediction of the juvenile salmon population in the River Tornionjoki as an example application. The River Tornionjoki is the largest salmon river flowing into the Baltic Sea. This thesis tackles the issues of model formulation and model checking as well as computational problems related to Bayesian modelling in the context of fisheries stock assessment. Each article of the thesis provides a novel method either for extracting information from data obtained via a particular type of sampling system or for integrating the information about the fish stock from multiple sources in terms of a population dynamics model. Mark-recapture and removal sampling schemes and a random catch sampling method are covered for the estimation of the population size. In addition, a method for estimating the stock composition of a salmon catch based on DNA samples is also presented. For most of the articles, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation has been used as a tool to approximate the posterior distribution. Problems arising from the sampling method are also briefly discussed and potential solutions for these problems are proposed. Special emphasis in the discussion is given to the philosophical foundation of the Bayesian approach in the context of fisheries stock assessment. It is argued that the role of subjective prior knowledge needed in practically all parts of a Bayesian model should be recognized and consequently fully utilised in the process of model formulation.

Sangen ialo Rucous : Schwenckfeldiläisten rukouskirja Mikael Agricolan lähteenä

Sangen ialo Rucous. The prayer book of the Schwenckfeldiens as a source for Michael Agricola The significance of the prayer book published by the Finnish reformer Michael Agricola in the year of 1544 has not been comprehended enough among the prayer literature of the Reformation century. Especially in foreign research literature one of the era s most extensive and versatile prayer books has been practically disregarded. According to the prayer book, Agricola appears to be a traditionalist, who derives most of his source material from medieval and old church prayer books. The low number of the prayers from Evangelical prayer books is noteworthy. The study in hand examines Agricola s theology expressed in his translation work of the prayer book of the mystic spiritualistic Schwenckfeldien movement. The prayer book of the Schwenckdeldiens diverged from Lutheranism was called Bekantnus der sünden and it was composed around the year of 1526. Agricola is the only prayer book collector who has regarded it as necessary to add all the 45 prayers of the Schwenckfeldien prayer book and its introduction to his book. In the prayers containing the Schwenckfeldien communion theology and Christology Agricola has not changed the content of the text, apparently because he was not aware of the problems involved in the Schwenckfeldien theology. On a few occasions Agricola added points of view concerning the church, priesthood, preaching the Word and sacraments to his prayers, which the Schwenckfeldiens despised. From the ten additions four Agricola created himself, the rest he borrowed from Wolfgang Capito s prayer book. As a source Agricola used Capito s Latin prayer book together with the German text from Bekantnus. When looking at the studied material, Agricola does not turn out to be a creative translator. Even though he had a model for a less restricted translation in Wolfgang Capito s prayer book, he sticks to his habit of translating word by word. Because not even a good example has had a liberating effect on his translation principles, Agricola cannot be considered a theologically orientated writer. The translation of the Schwenckfeldien prayers Agricola starts with Capito s prayer book. Very soon he takes the Bekantnus alongside Capito s text and abandons the use of Capito s prayer book in the middle of the translation process. Comparing Agricola s translation with the two texts in different languages has made it possible to create the disposition theory described above. On the basis of the disposition theory it can be concluded that Agricola first worked out a precise plan for his prayer book. Then he translated prayers theme by theme using multiple sources at the same time. Later Agricola fixed the disposition, which does not seem to have a direct paragon. From the prayers of the Schwenckfeldien prayer book Agricola translated 26 texts using the Bekantnus as an only base, from Capito s prayer book he translated four texts and 17 texts he translated using the two basic texts simultaneously. In the previous studies, words and texts added by Agricola have been examined as one problem unit. In this study the additions have been placed into three different categories: additions consequential on tautological parataxis, specifying additions and additions significant to the content. Due to Agricola s meticulous translation techniques, there are so few additions. Agricola does not show his own creativity even in the additions significant to the content but uses there some complete sentences or word fragments from the other prayers he has translated. In the translations of the prayers there are some unique appearing words and the analysis of the translation work shed a new light on the background of their first literary appearance in Finnish. Agricola s linguistic abilities turned out to be great. In those prayers where Agricola uses both the German and Latin basic texts at the same time, the translation process is a very intensive twine made on the basis of the two sources.

The effects of human induced disturbances on the sediment geochemistry of Baltic Sea embayments with a focus on eutrophication history

Historical sediment nutrient concentrations and heavy-metal distributions were studied in five embayments in the Gulf of Finland and an adjacent lake. The main objective of the study was to examine the response of these water bodies to temporal changes in human activities. Sediment cores were collected from the sites and dated using 210Pb and 137Cs. The cores were analyzed for total carbon (TC), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), organic phosphorus (OP), inorganic phosphorus (IP), biogenic silica (BSi), loss on ignition (LOI), grain size, Cu, Zn, Al, Fe, Mn, K, Ca, Mg and Na. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to summarize the trends in the geochemical variables and to compare trends between the different sites. The links between the catchment land use and sediment geochemical data were studied using a multivariate technique of redundancy analysis (RDA). Human activities produce marked geochemical variations in coastal sediments. These variations and signals are often challenging to interpret due to various sedimentological and post-depositional factors affecting the sediment profiles. In general, the sites studied here show significant upcore increases in sedimentation rates, TP and TN concentrations. Also Cu, which is considered to be a good indicator of anthropogenic influence, showed clear increases from 1850 towards the top part of the cores. Based on the RDA-analysis, in the least disturbed embayments with high forest cover, the sediments are dominated by lithogenic indicators Fe, K, Al and Mg. In embayments close to urban settlement, the sediments have high Cu concentrations and a high sediment Fe/Mn ratio. This study suggests that sediment accumulation rates vary significantly from site to site and that the overall sedimentation can be linked to the geomorphology and basin bathymetry, which appear to be the major factors governing sedimentation rates; i.e. a high sediment accumulation rate is not characteristic either to urban or to rural sites. The geochemical trends are strongly site specific and depend on the local geochemical background, basin characteristics and anthropogenic metal and nutrient loading. Of the studied geochemical indicators, OP shows the least monotonic trends in all studied sites. When compared to other available data, OP seems to be the most reliable geochemical indicator describing the trophic development of the study sites, whereas Cu and Zn appear to be good indicators for anthropogenic influence. As sedimentation environments, estuarine and marine sites are more complex than lacustrine basins with multiple sources of sediment input and more energetic conditions in the former. The crucial differences between lacustrine and estuarine/coastal sedimentation environments are mostly related to Fe. P sedimentation is largely governed by Fe redox-reactions in estuarine environments. In freshwaters, presence of Fe is clearly linked to the sedimentation of other lithogenic metals, and therefore P sedimentation and preservation has a more direct linkage to organic matter sedimentation.

The role of lakes in carbon cycling in boreal catchments

Lakes are an important component of ecosystem carbon cycle through both organic carbon sequestration and carbon dioxide and methane emissions, although they cover only a small fraction of the Earth's surface area. Lake sediments are considered to be one of rather perma-nent sinks of carbon in boreal regions and furthermore, freshwater ecosystems process large amounts of carbon originating from terrestrial sources. These carbon fluxes are highly uncer-tain especially in the changing climate. -- The present study provides a large-scale view on carbon sources and fluxes in boreal lakes situated in different landscapes. We present carbon concentrations in water, pools in lake se-diments, and carbon gas (CO2 and CH4) fluxes from lakes. The study is based on spatially extensive and randomly selected Nordic Lake Survey (NLS) database with 874 lakes. The large database allows the identification of the various factors (lake size, climate, and catchment land use) determining lake water carbon concentrations, pools and gas fluxes in different types of lakes along a latitudinal gradient from 60oN to 69oN. Lakes in different landscapes vary in their carbon quantity and quality. Carbon (C) content (total organic and inorganic carbon) in lakes is highest in agriculture and peatland dominated areas. In peatland rich areas organic carbon dominated in lakes but in agricultural areas both organic and inorganic C concentrations were high. Total inorganic carbon in the lake water was strongly dependent on the bedrock and soil quality in the catchment, especially in areas where human influence in the catchment is low. In inhabited areas both agriculture and habitation in the catchment increase lake TIC concentrations, since in the disturbed soils both weathering and leaching are presumably more efficient than in pristine areas. TOC concentrations in lakes were related to either catchment sources, mainly peatlands, or to retention in the upper watercourses. Retention as a regulator of the TOC concentrations dominated in southern Finland, whereas the peatland sources were important in northern Finland. The homogeneous land use in the north and the restricted catchment sources of TOC contribute to the close relationship between peatlands and the TOC concentrations in the northern lakes. In southern Finland the more favorable climate for degradation and the multiple sources of TOC in the mixed land use highlight the importance of retention. Carbon processing was intensive in the small lakes. Both CO2 emission and the Holocene C pool in sediments per square meter of the lake area were highest in the smallest lakes. How-ever, because the total area of the small lakes on the areal level is limited, the large lakes are important units in C processing in the landscape. Both CO2 and CH4 concentrations and emissions were high in eutrophic lakes. High availability of nutrients and the fresh organic matter enhance degradation in these lakes. Eutrophic lakes are often small and shallow, enabling high contact between the water column and the sediment. At the landscape level, the lakes in agricultural areas are often eutrophic due to fertile soils and fertilization of the catchments, and therefore they also showed the highest CO2 and CH4 concentrations. Export from the catchments and in-lake degradation were suggested to be equally important sources of CO2 and CH4 in fall when the lake water column was intensively mixed and the transport of sub-stances from the catchment was high due to the rainy season. In the stagnant periods, especially in the winter, in-lake degradation as a gas source was highlighted due to minimal mixing and limited transport of C from the catchment. The strong relationship between the annual CO2 level of lakes and the annual precipitation suggests that climate change can have a major impact on C cycling in the catchments. Increase in precipitation enhances DOC export from the catchments and leads to increasing greenhouse gas emissions from lakes. The total annual CO2 emission from Finnish lakes was estimated to be 1400 Gg C a-1. The total lake sediment C pool in Finland was estimated to be 0.62 Pg, giving an annual sink in Finnish lakes of 65 Gg C a-1.

Image Heritage - The Temporal Dimension in Consumers' Corporate Image Constructions

Images and brands have been topics of great interest in both academia and practice for a long time. The company’s image, which in this study is considered equivalent to the actual corporate brand, has become a strategic issue and one of the company’s most valuable assets. In contrast to mainstream corporate branding research focusing on consumerimages as steered and managed by the company, in the present study a genuine consumer-focus is taken. The question is asked: how do consumers perceive the company, and especially, how are their experiences of the company over time reflected in the corporate image? The findings indicate that consumers’ corporate images can be seen as being constructed through dynamic relational processes based on a multifaceted network of earlier images from multiple sources over time. The essential finding is that corporate images have a heritage. In the thesis, the concept of image heritage is introduced, which stands for the consumer’s earlier company-related experiences from multiple sources over time. In other words, consumers construct their images of the company based on earlier recalled images, perhaps dating back many years in time. Therefore, corporate images have roots - an image heritage – on which the images are constructed in the present. For companies, image heritage is a key for understanding consumers, and thereby also a key for consumer-focused branding strategies and activities. As image heritage is the consumer’s interpretation base and context for image constructions here and now, branding strategies and activities that meet this consumer-reality has a potential to become more effective. This thesis is positioned in the tradition of The Nordic School of Marketing Thought and introduces a relational dynamic perspective into branding through consumers’ image heritage. Anne Rindell is associated to CERS, the Center for Relationship Marketing and Service Management at the Swedish School of Economics and Business Administration.