The Influence of World Factors on Finnish Stock Market Volatility

This paper investigates to what extent the volatility of Finnish stock portfolios is transmitted through the "world volatility". We operationalize the volatility processes of Finnish leverage, industry, and size portfolio returns by asymmetric GARCH specifications according to Glosten et al. (1993). We use daily return data for January, 2, 1987 to December 30, 1998. We find that the world shock significantly enters the domestic models, and that the impact has increased over time. This applies also for the variance ratios, and the correlations to the world. The larger the firm, the larger is the world impact. The conditional variance is higher during recessions. The asymmetry parameter is surprisingly non-significant, and the leverage hypothesis cannot be verified. The return generating process of the domestic portfolio returns does usually not include the world information set, thus indicating that the returns are generated by a segmented conditional asset pricing model.

Three Essays on the Volatility of Finnish Stock Returns (summary section only)

First, in Essay 1, we test whether it is possible to forecast Finnish Options Index return volatility by examining the out-of-sample predictive ability of several common volatility models with alternative well-known methods; and find additional evidence for the predictability of volatility and for the superiority of the more complicated models over the simpler ones. Secondly, in Essay 2, the aggregated volatility of stocks listed on the Helsinki Stock Exchange is decomposed into a market, industry-and firm-level component, and it is found that firm-level (i.e., idiosyncratic) volatility has increased in time, is more substantial than the two former, predicts GDP growth, moves countercyclically and as well as the other components is persistent. Thirdly, in Essay 3, we are among the first in the literature to seek for firm-specific determinants of idiosyncratic volatility in a multivariate setting, and find for the cross-section of stocks listed on the Helsinki Stock Exchange that industrial focus, trading volume, and block ownership, are positively associated with idiosyncratic volatility estimates––obtained from both the CAPM and the Fama and French three-factor model with local and international benchmark portfolios––whereas a negative relation holds between firm age as well as size and idiosyncratic volatility.

Essays on Stock Market Reactions to New Information

A functioning stock market is an essential component of a competitive economy, since it provides a mechanism for allocating the economy’s capital stock. In an ideal situation, the stock market will steer capital in a manner that maximizes the total utility of the economy. As prices of traded stocks depend on and vary with information available to investors, it is apparent that information plays a crucial role in a functioning stock market. However, even though information indisputably matters, several issues regarding how stock markets process and react to new information still remain unanswered. The purpose of this thesis is to explore the link between new information and stock market reactions. The first essay utilizes new methodological tools in order to investigate the average reaction of investors to new financial statement information. The second essay explores the behavior of different types of investors when new financial statement information is disclosed to the market. The third essay looks into the interrelation between investor size, behavior and overconfidence. The fourth essay approaches the puzzle of negative skewness in stock returns from an altogether different angle than previous studies. The first essay presents evidence of the second derivatives of some financial statement signals containing more information than the first derivatives. Further, empirical evidence also indicates that some of the investigated signals proxy risk while others contain information priced with a delay. The second essay documents different categories of investors demonstrating systematical differences in their behavior when new financial statement information arrives to the market. In addition, a theoretical model building on differences in investor overconfidence is put forward in order to explain the observed behavior. The third essay shows that investor size describes investor behavior very well. This finding is predicted by the model proposed in the second essay, and hence strengthens the model. The behavioral differences between investors of different size furthermore have significant economic implications. Finally, the fourth essay finds strong evidence of management news disclosure practices causing negative skewness in stock returns.

Monetary Policy, Stock Price Misalignments and Macroeconomic Instability

Perhaps the most fundamental prediction of financial theory is that the expected returns on financial assets are determined by the amount of risk contained in their payoffs. Assets with a riskier payoff pattern should provide higher expected returns than assets that are otherwise similar but provide payoffs that contain less risk. Financial theory also predicts that not all types of risks should be compensated with higher expected returns. It is well-known that the asset-specific risk can be diversified away, whereas the systematic component of risk that affects all assets remains even in large portfolios. Thus, the asset-specific risk that the investor can easily get rid of by diversification should not lead to higher expected returns, and only the shared movement of individual asset returns – the sensitivity of these assets to a set of systematic risk factors – should matter for asset pricing. It is within this framework that this thesis is situated. The first essay proposes a new systematic risk factor, hypothesized to be correlated with changes in investor risk aversion, which manages to explain a large fraction of the return variation in the cross-section of stock returns. The second and third essays investigate the pricing of asset-specific risk, uncorrelated with commonly used risk factors, in the cross-section of stock returns. The three essays mentioned above use stock market data from the U.S. The fourth essay presents a new total return stock market index for the Finnish stock market beginning from the opening of the Helsinki Stock Exchange in 1912 and ending in 1969 when other total return indices become available. Because a total return stock market index for the period prior to 1970 has not been available before, academics and stock market participants have not known the historical return that stock market investors in Finland could have achieved on their investments. The new stock market index presented in essay 4 makes it possible, for the first time, to calculate the historical average return on the Finnish stock market and to conduct further studies that require long time-series of data.

Essays on Risk and Return

Perhaps the most fundamental prediction of financial theory is that the expected returns on financial assets are determined by the amount of risk contained in their payoffs. Assets with a riskier payoff pattern should provide higher expected returns than assets that are otherwise similar but provide payoffs that contain less risk. Financial theory also predicts that not all types of risks should be compensated with higher expected returns. It is well-known that the asset-specific risk can be diversified away, whereas the systematic component of risk that affects all assets remains even in large portfolios. Thus, the asset-specific risk that the investor can easily get rid of by diversification should not lead to higher expected returns, and only the shared movement of individual asset returns – the sensitivity of these assets to a set of systematic risk factors – should matter for asset pricing. It is within this framework that this thesis is situated. The first essay proposes a new systematic risk factor, hypothesized to be correlated with changes in investor risk aversion, which manages to explain a large fraction of the return variation in the cross-section of stock returns. The second and third essays investigate the pricing of asset-specific risk, uncorrelated with commonly used risk factors, in the cross-section of stock returns. The three essays mentioned above use stock market data from the U.S. The fourth essay presents a new total return stock market index for the Finnish stock market beginning from the opening of the Helsinki Stock Exchange in 1912 and ending in 1969 when other total return indices become available. Because a total return stock market index for the period prior to 1970 has not been available before, academics and stock market participants have not known the historical return that stock market investors in Finland could have achieved on their investments. The new stock market index presented in essay 4 makes it possible, for the first time, to calculate the historical average return on the Finnish stock market and to conduct further studies that require long time-series of data.

Essays on Financial Analyst Forecasts and Recommendations

The trade of the financial analyst is currently a much-debated issue in today’s media. As a large part of the investment analysis is conducted under the broker firms’ regime, the incentives of the financial analyst and the investor do not always align. The broker firm’s commercial incentives may be to maximise its commission from securities trading and underwriting fees. The purpose of this thesis is to extend our understanding of the work of a financial analyst, the incentives he faces and how these affect his actions. The first essay investigates how the economic significance of the coverage of a particular firm impacts the analysts’ accuracy of estimation. The hypothesis is that analysts put more effort in analysing firms with a relatively higher trading volume, as these firms usually yield higher commissions. The second essay investigates how analysts interpret new financial statement information. The essay shows that analysts underreact or overreact to prior reported earnings, depending on the short-term pattern in reported earnings. The third essay investigates the possible investment value in Finnish stock recommendations, issued by sell side analysts. It is established that consensus recommendations issued on Finnish stocks contain investment value. Further, the investment value in consensus recommendations improves significantly through the exclusion of recommendations issued by banks. The fourth essay investigates investors’ behaviour prior to financial analysts’ earnings forecast revisions. Lately, the financial press have reported cases were financial analysts warn their preferred clients of possible earnings forecast revisions. However, in the light of the empirical results, it appears that the problem of analysts leaking information to some selected customers does not appear systematically on the Finnish stock market.

Test of the Clustering Hypothesis in the Helsinki Exchanges

This paper investigates the clustering pattern in the Finnish stock market. Using trading volume and time as factors capturing the clustering pattern in the market, the Keim and Madhavan (1996) and the Engle and Russell (1998) model provide the framework for the analysis. The descriptive and the parametric analysis provide evidences that an important determinant of the famous U-shape pattern in the market is the rate of information arrivals as measured by large trading volumes and durations at the market open and close. Precisely, 1) the larger the trading volume, the greater the impact on prices both in the short and the long run, thus prices will differ across quantities. 2) Large trading volume is a non-linear function of price changes in the long run. 3) Arrival times are positively autocorrelated, indicating a clustering pattern and 4) Information arrivals as approximated by durations are negatively related to trading flow.