67 resultados para Factor-Augmented Vector Autorregression (FAVAR).

em Helda - Digital Repository of University of Helsinki


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Part I: Parkinson’s disease is a slowly progressive neurodegenerative disorder in which particularly the dopaminergic neurons of the substantia nigra pars compacta degenerate and die. Current conventional treatment is based on restraining symptoms but it has no effect on the progression of the disease. Gene therapy research has focused on the possibility of restoring the lost brain function by at least two means: substitution of critical enzymes needed for the synthesis of dopamine and slowing down the progression of the disease by supporting the functions of the remaining nigral dopaminergic neurons by neurotrophic factors. The striatal levels of enzymes such as tyrosine hydroxylase, dopadecarboxylase and GTP-CH1 are decreased as the disease progresses. By replacing one or all of the enzymes, dopamine levels in the striatum may be restored to normal and behavioral impairments caused by the disease may be ameliorated especially in the later stages of the disease. The neurotrophic factors glial cell derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF) and neurturin have shown to protect and restore functions of dopaminergic cell somas and terminals as well as improve behavior in animal lesion models. This therapy may be best suited at the early stages of the disease when there are more dopaminergic neurons for neurotrophic factors to reach. Viral vector-mediated gene transfer provides a tool to deliver proteins with complex structures into specific brain locations and provides long-term protein over-expression. Part II: The aim of our study was to investigate the effects of two orally dosed COMT inhibitors entacapone (10 and 30 mg/kg) and tolcapone (10 and 30 mg/kg) with a subsequent administration of a peripheral dopadecarboxylase inhibitor carbidopa (30 mg/kg) and L- dopa (30 mg/kg) on dopamine and its metabolite levels in the dorsal striatum and nucleus accumbens of freely moving rats using dual-probe in vivo microdialysis. Earlier similarly designed studies have only been conducted in the dorsal striatum. We also confirmed the result of earlier ex vivo studies regarding the effects of intraperitoneally dosed tolcapone (30 mg/kg) and entacapone (30 mg/kg) on striatal and hepatic COMT activity. The results obtained from the dorsal striatum were generally in line with earlier studies, where tolcapone tended to increase dopamine and DOPAC levels and decrease HVA levels. Entacapone tended to keep striatal dopamine and HVA levels elevated longer than in controls and also tended to elevate the levels of DOPAC. Surprisingly in the nucleus accumbens, dopamine levels after either dose of entacapone or tolcapone were not elevated. Accumbal DOPAC levels, especially in the tolcapone 30 mg/kg group, were elevated nearly to the same extent as measured in the dorsal striatum. Entacapone 10 mg/kg elevated accumbal HVA levels more than the dose of 30 mg/kg and the effect was more pronounced in the nucleus accumbens than in the dorsal striatum. This suggests that entacapone 30 mg/kg has minor central effects. Also our ex vivo study results obtained from the dorsal striatum suggest that entacapone 30 mg/kg has minor and transient central effects, even though central HVA levels were not suppressed below those of the control group in either brain area in the microdialysis study. Both entacapone and tolcapone suppressed hepatic COMT activity more than striatal COMT activity. Tolcapone was more effective than entacapone in the dorsal striatum. The differences between dopamine and its metabolite levels in the dorsal striatum and nucleus accumbens may be due to different properties of the two brain areas.

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In the thesis we consider inference for cointegration in vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The thesis consists of an introduction and four papers. The first paper proposes a new test for cointegration in VAR models that is directly based on the eigenvalues of the least squares (LS) estimate of the autoregressive matrix. In the second paper we compare a small sample correction for the likelihood ratio (LR) test of cointegrating rank and the bootstrap. The simulation experiments show that the bootstrap works very well in practice and dominates the correction factor. The tests are applied to international stock prices data, and the .nite sample performance of the tests are investigated by simulating the data. The third paper studies the demand for money in Sweden 1970—2000 using the I(2) model. In the fourth paper we re-examine the evidence of cointegration between international stock prices. The paper shows that some of the previous empirical results can be explained by the small-sample bias and size distortion of Johansen’s LR tests for cointegration. In all papers we work with two data sets. The first data set is a Swedish money demand data set with observations on the money stock, the consumer price index, gross domestic product (GDP), the short-term interest rate and the long-term interest rate. The data are quarterly and the sample period is 1970(1)—2000(1). The second data set consists of month-end stock market index observations for Finland, France, Germany, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States from 1980(1) to 1997(2). Both data sets are typical of the sample sizes encountered in economic data, and the applications illustrate the usefulness of the models and tests discussed in the thesis.

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In recent years, thanks to developments in information technology, large-dimensional datasets have been increasingly available. Researchers now have access to thousands of economic series and the information contained in them can be used to create accurate forecasts and to test economic theories. To exploit this large amount of information, researchers and policymakers need an appropriate econometric model.Usual time series models, vector autoregression for example, cannot incorporate more than a few variables. There are two ways to solve this problem: use variable selection procedures or gather the information contained in the series to create an index model. This thesis focuses on one of the most widespread index model, the dynamic factor model (the theory behind this model, based on previous literature, is the core of the first part of this study), and its use in forecasting Finnish macroeconomic indicators (which is the focus of the second part of the thesis). In particular, I forecast economic activity indicators (e.g. GDP) and price indicators (e.g. consumer price index), from 3 large Finnish datasets. The first dataset contains a large series of aggregated data obtained from the Statistics Finland database. The second dataset is composed by economic indicators from Bank of Finland. The last dataset is formed by disaggregated data from Statistic Finland, which I call micro dataset. The forecasts are computed following a two steps procedure: in the first step I estimate a set of common factors from the original dataset. The second step consists in formulating forecasting equations including the factors extracted previously. The predictions are evaluated using relative mean squared forecast error, where the benchmark model is a univariate autoregressive model. The results are dataset-dependent. The forecasts based on factor models are very accurate for the first dataset (the Statistics Finland one), while they are considerably worse for the Bank of Finland dataset. The forecasts derived from the micro dataset are still good, but less accurate than the ones obtained in the first case. This work leads to multiple research developments. The results here obtained can be replicated for longer datasets. The non-aggregated data can be represented in an even more disaggregated form (firm level). Finally, the use of the micro data, one of the major contributions of this thesis, can be useful in the imputation of missing values and the creation of flash estimates of macroeconomic indicator (nowcasting).

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The leading cause of death in the Western world continues to be coronary heart disease (CHD). At the root of the disease process is dyslipidemia an aberration in the relevant amounts of circulating blood lipids. Cholesterol builds up in the arterial wall and following rupture of these plaques, myocardial infarction or stroke can occur. Heart disease runs in families and a number of hereditary forms are known. The leading cause of adult dyslipidemia presently however is overweight and obesity. This thesis work presents an investigation of the molecular genetics of common, hereditary dyslipidemia and the tightly related condition of obesity. Familial combined hyperlipidemia (FCHL) is the most common hereditary dyslipidemia in man with an estimated population prevalence of 1-6%. This complex disease is characterized by elevated levels of serum total cholesterol, triglycerides or both and is observed in about 20% of individuals with premature CHD. Our group identified the disease to be associated with genetic variation in the USF1 transcription factor gene. USF1 has a key role in regulating other genes that control lipid and glucose metabolism as well as the inflammatory response all central processes in the progression of atherosclerosis and CHD. The first two works of this thesis aimed at understanding how these USF1 variants result in increased disease risk. Among the many, non-coding single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that associated with the disease, one was found to have a functional effect. The risk-enhancing allele of this SNP seems to eradicate the ability of the important hormone insulin to induce the expression of USF1 in peripheral tissues. The resultant changes in the expression of numerous USF1 target genes over time probably enhance and accelerate the atherogenic processes. Dyslipidemias often represent an outcome of obesity and in the final work of this thesis we wanted to address the metabolic pathways related to acquired obesity. It is recognized that active processes in adipose tissue play an important role in the development of dyslipidemia, insulin resistance and other pathological conditions associated with obesity. To minimize the confounding effects of genetic differences present in most human studies, we investigated a rare collection of identical twins that differed significantly in the amount of body fat. In the obese, but otherwise healthy young adults, several notable changes were observed. In addition to chronic inflammation, the adipose tissue of the obese co-twins was characterized by a marked (47%) decrease in amount of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) a change associated with mitochondrial dysfunction. The catabolism of branched chain amino acids (BCAAs) was identified as the most down-regulated process in the obese co-twins. A concordant increase in the serum level of these insulin secretagogues was identified. This hyperaminoacidemia may provide the feed-back signal from insulin resistant adipose tissue to the pancreas to ensure an appropriately augmented secretory response. The down regulation of BCAA catabolism correlated closely with liver fat accumulation and insulin. The single most up-regulated gene (5.9 fold) in the obese co-twins was osteopontin (SPP1) a cytokine involved in macrophage recruitment to adipose tissue. SPP1 is here implicated as an important player in the development of insulin resistance. These studies of exceptional study samples provide better understanding of the underlying pathology in common dyslipidemias and other obesity associated diseases important for future improvement of intervention strategies and treatments to combat atherosclerosis and coronary heart disease.

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In the ovary, two new members of the large TGF-beta superfamily of growth factors were discovered in the 1990s. The oocyte was shown to express two closely related growth factors that were named growth differentiation factor 9 (GDF-9) and growth differentiation factor 9B (GDF-9B). Both of these proteins are required for normal ovarian follicle development although their individual significance varies between species. GDF-9 and GDF-9B mRNAs are expressed in the human oocytes from the primary follicle stage onwards. This thesis project was aimed to define the signalling mechanisms utilized by the oocyte secreted GDF-9. We used primary cultures of human granulosa luteal cells (hGL) as our cell model, and recombinant adenovirus-mediated gene transfer in manipulating the TGF-b family signalling cascade molecules in these cells. Overexpression of the constitutively active forms of the seven type I receptors, the activin receptor-like kinases 1-7 (ALK1-7), using recombinant adenoviruses caused a specific activation of either the Smad1 or Smad2 pathway proteins depending on the ALK used. Activation of both Smad1 and Smad2 proteins also stimulated the expression of dimeric inhibin B protein in hGL cells. Treatment with recombinant GDF-9 protein induced the specific activation of the Smad2 pathway and stimulated the expression of inhibin betaB subunit mRNA as well as inhibin B protein secretion in our cell model. Recombinant GDF-9 also activated the Smad3-responsive CAGA-luciferase reported construct, and the GDF-9 response in hGL cells was markedly potentiated upon the overexpression of Alk5 by adenoviral gene transduction. Alk5 overexpression also enhanced the GDF-9 induced inhibin B secretion by these cells. Similarly, in a mouse teratocarcinoma cell line P19, GDF-9 could activate the Smad2/3 pathway, and overexpression of ALK5 in COS7 cells rendered them responsive to GDF-9. Furthermore, transfection of rat granulosa cells with small interfering RNA for ALK5 or overexpression of the inhibitory Smad7 resulted in dose-dependent suppression of GDF-9 effects. In conclusion, this thesis shows that both Smad1 and Smad2 pathways are involved in controlling the regulation of inhibin B secretion. Therefore, in addition to endocrine control of inhibin production by the pituitary gonadotropins, also local paracrine factors within in the ovary, like the oocyte-derived growth factors, may contribute to controlling inhibin secretion. This thesis shows as well that like other TGF-beta family ligands, also GDF-9 signalling is mediated by the canonical type I and type II receptors with serine/threonine kinase activity, and the intracellular transcription factors, the Smads. Although GDF-9 binds to the BMP type II receptor, its downstream actions are specifically mediated by the type I receptor, ALK5, and the Smad2 and Smad3 proteins.

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Diseases caused by the Lancefield group A streptococcus, Streptococcus pyogenes, are amongst the most challenging to clinicians and public health specialists alike. Although severe infections caused by S. pyogenes are relatively uncommon, affecting around 3 per 100,000 of the population per annum in developed countries, the case fatality is high relative to many other infections. Despite a long scientific tradition of studying their occurrence and characteristics, many aspects of their epidemiology remain poorly understood, and potential control measures undefined. Epidemiological studies can play an important role in identifying host, pathogen and environmental factors associated with risk of disease, manifestation of particular syndromes or poor survival. This can be of value in targeting prevention activities, as well directing further basic research, potentially paving the way for the identification of novel therapeutic targets. The formation of a European network, Strep-EURO, provided an opportunity to explore epidemiological patterns across Europe. Funded by the Fifth Framework Programme of the European Commission s Directorate-General for Research (QLK2.CT.2002.01398), the Strep-EURO network was launched in September 2002. Twelve participants across eleven countries took part, led by the University of Lund in Sweden. Cases were defined as patients with S. pyogenes isolated from a normally sterile site, or non-sterile site in combination with clinical signs of streptococcal toxic shock syndrome (STSS). All participating countries undertook prospective enhanced surveillance between 1st January 2003 and 31st December 2004 to identify cases diagnosed during this period. A standardised surveillance dataset was defined, comprising demographic, clinical and risk factor information collected through a questionnaire. Isolates were collected by the national reference laboratories and characterised according to their M protein using conventional serological and emm gene typing. Descriptive statistics and multivariable analyses were undertaken to compare characteristics of cases between countries and identify factors associated with increased risk of death or development of STSS. Crude and age-adjusted rates of infection were calculated for each country where a catchment population could be defined. The project succeeded in establishing the first European surveillance network for severe S. pyogenes infections, with 5522 cases identified over the two years. Analysis of data gathered in the eleven countries yielded important new information on the epidemiology of severe S. pyogenes infections in Europe during the 2000s. Comprehensive epidemiological data on these infections were obtained for the first time from France, Greece and Romania. Incidence estimates identified a general north-south gradient, from high to low. Remarkably similar age-standardised rates were observed among the three Nordic participants, between 2.2 and 2.3 per 100,000 population. Rates in the UK were higher still, 2.9/100,000, elevated by an upsurge in drug injectors. Rates from these northern countries were reasonably close to those observed in the USA and Australia during this period. In contrast, rates of reports in the more central and southern countries (Czech Republic, Romania, Cyprus and Italy) were substantially lower, 0.3 to 1.5 per 100,000 population, a likely reflection of poorer uptake of microbiological diagnostic methods within these countries. Analysis of project data brought some new insights into risk factors for severe S. pyogenes infection, especially the importance of injecting drug users in the UK, with infections in this group fundamentally reshaping the epidemiology of these infections during this period. Several novel findings arose through this work, including the high degree of congruence in seasonal patterns between countries and the seasonal changes in case fatality rates. Elderly patients, those with compromised immune systems, those who developed STSS and those infected with an emm/M78, emm/M5, emm/M3 or emm/M1 were found to be most likely to die as a result of their infection, whereas those diagnosed with cellulitis, septic arthritis, puerperal sepsis or with non-focal infection were associated with low risk of death, as were infections occurring during October. Analysis of augmented data from the UK found use of NSAIDs to be significantly associated with development of STSS, adding further fuel to the debate surrounding the role of NSAIDs in the development of severe disease. As a largely community-acquired infection, occurring sporadically and diffusely throughout the population, opportunities for control of severe infections caused by S. pyogenes remain limited, primarily involving contact chemoprophylaxis where clusters arise. Analysis of UK Strep-EURO data were used to quantify the risk to household contacts of cases, forming the basis of national guidance on the management of infection. Vaccines currently under development could offer a more effective control programme in future. Surveillance of invasive infections caused by S. pyogenes is of considerable public health importance as a means of identifying long and short-term trends in incidence, allowing the need for, or impact of, public health measures to be evaluated. As a dynamic pathogen co-existing among a dynamic population, new opportunities for exploitation of its human host are likely to arise periodically, and as such continued monitoring remains essential.

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Critical cellular decisions such as should the cell proliferate, migrate or differentiate, are regulated by stimulatory signals from the extracellular environment, like growth factors. These signals are transformed to cellular responses through their binding to specific receptors present at the surface of the recipient cell. The epidermal growth factor receptor (EGF-R/ErbB) pathway plays key roles in governing these signals to intracellular events and cell-to-cell communication. The EGF-R forms a signaling network that participates in the specification of cell fate and coordinates cell proliferation. Ligand binding triggers receptor dimerization leading to the recruitment of kinases and adaptor proteins. This step simultaneously initiates multiple signal transduction pathways, which result in activation of transcription factors and other target proteins, leading to cellular alterations. It is known that mutations of EGF-R or in the components of these pathways, such as Ras and Raf, are commonly involved in human cancer. The four best characterized signaling pathways induced by EGF-R are the mitogen-activated protein kinase cascades (MAPKs), the lipid kinase phosphatidylinositol 3 kinase (PI3K), a group of transcription factors called Signal Transducers and Activator of Transcription (STAT), and the phospholipase Cγ; (PLCγ) pathways. The activation of each cascade culminates in kinase translocation to the nucleus to stimulate various transcription factors including activator protein 1 (AP-1). AP-1 family proteins are basic leucine zipper (bZIP) transcription factors that are implicated in the regulation of a variety of cellular processes (proliferation and survival, growth, differentiation, apoptosis, cell migration, transformation). Therefore, the regulation of AP-1 activity is critical for the decision of cell fate and their deregulated expression is widely associated with many types of cancers, such as breast and prostate cancers. The aims of this study were to characterize the roles of EGF-R signaling during normal development and malignant growth in vitro and in vivo using different cell lines and tissue samples. We show here that EGF-R regulates cell proliferation but is also required for regulation of AP-1 target gene expression in fibroblasts in a MAP-kinase mediated manner. Furthermore, EGF-R signaling is essential for enterocyte proliferation and migration during intestinal maturation. EGF-R signaling network, especially PI3-K-Akt pathway mediated AP-1 activity is involved in cellular survival in response to ionizing radiation. Taken together, these results elucidate the connection of EGF-R and AP-1 in various cellular contexts and show their importance in the regulation of cellular behaviour presenting new treatment cues for intestinal perforations and cancer therapy.