A Cointegration Approach to Topics in Empirical Macroeconomics (summary section only)

Mikael Juselius’ doctoral dissertation covers a range of significant issues in modern macroeconomics by empirically testing a number of important theoretical hypotheses. The first essay presents indirect evidence within the framework of the cointegrated VAR model on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor by using Finnish manufacturing data. Instead of estimating the elasticity of substitution by using the first order conditions, he develops a new approach that utilizes a CES production function in a model with a 3-stage decision process: investment in the long run, wage bargaining in the medium run and price and employment decisions in the short run. He estimates the elasticity of substitution to be below one. The second essay tests the restrictions implied by the core equations of the New Keynesian Model (NKM) in a vector autoregressive model (VAR) by using both Euro area and U.S. data. Both the new Keynesian Phillips curve and the aggregate demand curve are estimated and tested. The restrictions implied by the core equations of the NKM are rejected on both U.S. and Euro area data. These results are important for further research. The third essay is methodologically similar to essay 2, but it concentrates on Finnish macro data by adopting a theoretical framework of an open economy. Juselius’ results suggests that the open economy NKM framework is too stylized to provide an adequate explanation for Finnish inflation. The final essay provides a macroeconometric model of Finnish inflation and associated explanatory variables and it estimates the relative importance of different inflation theories. His main finding is that Finnish inflation is primarily determined by excess demand in the product market and by changes in the long-term interest rate. This study is part of the research agenda carried out by the Research Unit of Economic Structure and Growth (RUESG). The aim of RUESG it to conduct theoretical and empirical research with respect to important issues in industrial economics, real option theory, game theory, organization theory, theory of financial systems as well as to study problems in labor markets, macroeconomics, natural resources, taxation and time series econometrics. RUESG was established at the beginning of 1995 and is one of the National Centers of Excellence in research selected by the Academy of Finland. It is financed jointly by the Academy of Finland, the University of Helsinki, the Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation, Bank of Finland and the Nokia Group. This support is gratefully acknowledged.

The role of productivity in the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of predator-prey interaction

Productivity is predicted to drive the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of predator-prey interaction through changes in resource allocation between different traits. However, resources are seldom constantly available and thus temporal variation in productivity could have considerable effect on the species' potential to evolve. To study this, three long-term microbial laboratory experiments were established where Serratia marcescens prey bacteria was exposed to predation of protist Tetrahymena thermophila in different prey resource environments. The consequences of prey resource availability for the ecological properties of the predator-prey system, such as trophic dynamics, stability, and virulence, were determined. The evolutionary changes in species traits and prey genetic diversity were measured. The prey defence evolved stronger in high productivity environment. Increased allocation to defence incurred cost in terms of reduced prey resource use ability, which probably constrained prey evolution by increasing the effect of resource competition. However, the magnitude of this trade-off diminished when measured in high resource concentrations. Predation selected for white, non-pigmented, highly defensive prey clones that produced predation resistant biofilm. The biofilm defence was also potentially accompanied with cytotoxicity for predators and could have been traded off with high motility. Evidence for the evolution of predators was also found in one experiment suggesting that co-evolutionary dynamics could affect the evolution and ecology of predator-prey interaction. Temporal variation in resource availability increased variation in predator densities leading to temporally fluctuating selection for prey defences and resource use ability. Temporal variation in resource availability was also able to constrain prey evolution when the allocation to defence incurred high cost. However, when the magnitude of prey trade-off was small and the resource turnover was periodically high, temporal variation facilitated the formation of predator resistant biofilm. The evolution of prey defence constrained the transfer of energy from basal to higher trophic levels, decreasing the strength of top-down regulation on prey community. Predation and temporal variation in productivity decreased the stability of populations and prey traits in general. However, predation-induced destabilization was less pronounced in the high productivity environment where the evolution of prey defence was stronger. In addition, evolution of prey defence weakened the environmental variation induced destabilization of predator population dynamics. Moreover, protozoan predation decreased the S. marcescens virulence in the insect host moth (Parasemia plantaginis) suggesting that species interactions outside the context of host-pathogen relationship could be important indirect drivers for the evolution of pathogenesis. This thesis demonstrates that rapid evolution can affect various ecological properties of predator-prey interaction. The effect of evolution on the ecological dynamics depended on the productivity of the environment, being most evident in the constant environments with high productivity.

Music in the recovering brain

Listening to music involves a widely distributed bilateral network of brain regions that controls many auditory perceptual, cognitive, emotional, and motor functions. Exposure to music can also temporarily improve mood, reduce stress, and enhance cognitive performance as well as promote neural plasticity. However, very little is currently known about the relationship between music perception and auditory and cognitive processes or about the potential therapeutic effects of listening to music after neural damage. This thesis explores the interplay of auditory, cognitive, and emotional factors related to music processing after a middle cerebral artery (MCA) stroke. In the acute recovery phase, 60 MCA stroke patients were randomly assigned to a music listening group, an audio book listening group, or a control group. All patients underwent neuropsychological assessments, magnetoencephalography (MEG) measurements, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans repeatedly during a six-month post-stroke period. The results revealed that amusia, a deficit of music perception, is a common and persistent deficit after a stroke, especially if the stroke affects the frontal and temporal brain areas in the right hemisphere. Amusia is clearly associated with deficits in both auditory encoding, as indicated by the magnetic mismatch negativity (MMNm) response, and domain-general cognitive processes, such as attention, working memory, and executive functions. Furthermore, both music and audio book listening increased the MMNm, whereas only music listening improved the recovery of verbal memory and focused attention as well as prevented a depressed and confused mood during the first post-stroke months. These findings indicate a close link between musical, auditory, and cognitive processes in the brain. Importantly, they also encourage the use of listening to music as a rehabilitative leisure activity after a stroke and suggest that the auditory environment can induce long-term plastic changes in the recovering brain.

Evidence in European Asylum Procedures

This thesis explores the particular framework of evidentiary assessment of three selected appellate national asylum procedures in Europe and discusses the relationship between these procedures, on the one hand, and between these procedures and other legal systems, including the EU legal order and international law, on the other. A theme running throughout the thesis is the EU strivings towards approximation of national asylum procedures and my study analyses the evidentiary assessment of national procedures with the aim of pinpointing similarities and differences, and the influences which affect these distinctions. The thesis first explores the frames construed for national evidentiary solutions by studying the object of decision-making and the impact of legal systems outside the national. Second, the study analyses the factual evidentiary assessment of three national procedures - German, Finnish and English. Thirdly, the study explores the interrelationship between these procedures and the legal systems influencing them and poses questions in relation to the strivings of EU and methods of convergence. The thesis begins by stating the framework and starting points for the research. It moves on to establish keys of comparison concerning four elements of evidentiary assessment that are of importance to any appellate asylum procedure, and that can be compared between national procedures, on the one hand, and between international, regional and national frameworks, on the other. Four keys of comparison are established: the burden of proof, demands for evidentiary robustness, the standard of proof and requirements for the methods of evidentiary assessment. These keys of comparison are then identified in three national appellate asylum procedures, and in order to come to conclusions on the evidentiary standards of the appellate asylum procedures, relevant elements of the asylum procedures in general are presented. Further, institutional, formal and procedural matters which have an impact on the evidentiary standards in the national appellate procedures are analysed. From there, the thesis moves on to establish the relationship between national evidentiary standards and the legal systems which affect them, and gives reasons for similarities and divergences. Further, the thesis studies the impact of the national frameworks on the regional and international level. Lastly, the dissertation makes a de lege ferenda survey of the relationship between EU developments, the goal of harmonization in relation to national asylum procedures and the particular feature of evidentiary standards in national appellate asylum procedures. Methodology The thesis follows legal dogmatic methods. The aim is to analyse legal norms and legal constructions and give them content and context. My study takes as its outset an understanding of the purposes for legal research also regarding evidence and asylum to determine the contents of valid law through analysis and systematization. However, as evidentiary issues traditionally are normatively vaguely defined, a strict traditional normative dogmatic approach is not applied. For the same reason a traditionalist and strict legal positivism is not applied. The dogmatics applied to the analysis of the study is supported by practical analysis. The aim is not only to reach conclusions concerning the contents of legal norms and the requirements of law, but also to study the use and practical functioning of these norms, giving them a practcial context. Further, the study relies on a comparative method. A functionalist comparative method is employed and keys of comparison are found in evidentiary standards of three selected national appellate asylum procedures. The functioning equivalences of German, Finnish and English evidentiary standards of appellate asylum procedures are compared, and they are positioned in an European and international legal setting. Research Results The thesis provides results regarding the use of evidence in national appellate asylum procedures. It is established that evidentiary solutions do indeed impact on the asylum procedure and that the results of the procedure are dependent on the evidentiary solutions made in the procedures. Variations in, amongst other things, the interpretation of the burden of proof, the applied standard of proof and the method for determining evidentiary value, are analysed. It is established that national impacts play an important role in the adaptation of national appellate procedures to external requirements. Further, it is established that the impact of national procedures on as well the international framework as on EU law varies between the studied countries, partly depending on the position of the Member State in legislative advances at the EU level. In this comparative study it is, further, established that the impact of EU requirements concerning evidentiary issues may be have positive as well as negative effects with regard to the desired harmonization. It is also concluded that harmonization using means of convergence that primaly target legal frameworks may not in all instances be optimal in relation to evidentiary standards, and that more varied and pragmatic means of convergence must be introduced in order to secure harmonization also in terms of evidence. To date, legal culture and traditions seem to prevail over direct efforts at procedural harmonization.