Suomen maatalouden tuottamat kasvihuonekaasujen päästöt eri politiikkaskenaarioissa

Climate change is the single biggest environmental problem in the world at the moment. Although the effects are still not fully understood and there is considerable amount of uncertainty, many na-tions have decided to mitigate the change. On the societal level, a planner who tries to find an eco-nomically optimal solution to an environmental pollution problem seeks to reduce pollution from the sources where reductions are most cost-effective. This study aims to find out how effective the instruments of the agricultural policy are in the case of climate change mitigation in Finland. The theoretical base of this study is the neoclassical economic theory that is based on the assumption of a rational economic agent who maximizes his own utility. This theoretical base has been widened towards the direction clearly essential to the matter: the theory of environmental eco-nomics. Deeply relevant to this problem and central in the theory of environmental economics are the concepts of externalities and public goods. What are also relevant are the problems of global pollution and non-point-source pollution. Econometric modelling was the method that was applied to this study. The Finnish part of the AGMEMOD-model, covering the whole EU, was used for the estimation of the development of pollution. This model is a seemingly recursive, partially dynamic partial-equilibrium model that was constructed to predict the development of Finnish agricultural production of the most important products. For the study, I personally updated the model and also widened its scope in some relevant matters. Also, I devised a table that can calculate the emissions of greenhouse gases according to the rules set by the IPCC. With the model I investigated five alternative scenarios in comparison to the base-line scenario of Agenda 2000 agricultural policy. The alternative scenarios were: 1) the CAP reform of 2003, 2) free trade on agricultural commodities, 3) technological change, 4) banning the cultivation of organic soils and 5) the combination of the last three scenarios as the maximal achievement in reduction. The maximal achievement in the alternative scenario 5 was 1/3 of the level achieved on the base-line scenario. CAP reform caused only a minor reduction when com-pared to the base-line scenario. Instead, the free trade scenario and the scenario of technological change alone caused a significant reduction. The biggest single reduction was achieved by banning the cultivation of organic land. However, this was also the most questionable scenario to be real-ized, the reasons for this are further elaborated in the paper. The maximal reduction that can be achieved in the Finnish agricultural sector is about 11 % of the emission reduction that is needed to comply with the Kyoto protocol.

Characterisation and source identification of pollution episodes caused by long-range transported aerosols

Aerosol particles can cause detrimental environmental and health effects. The particles and their precursor gases are emitted from various anthropogenic and natural sources. It is important to know the origin and properties of aerosols to efficiently reduce their harmful effects. The diameter of aerosol particles (Dp) varies between ~0.001 and ~100 μm. Fine particles (PM2.5: Dp < 2.5 μm) are especially interesting because they are the most harmful and can be transported over long distances. The aim of this thesis is to study the impact on air quality by pollution episodes of long-range transported aerosols affecting the composition of the boundary-layer atmosphere in remote and relatively unpolluted regions of the world. The sources and physicochemical properties of aerosols were investigated in detail, based on various measurements (1) in southern Finland during selected long-range transport (LRT) pollution episodes and unpolluted periods and (2) over the Atlantic Ocean between Europe and Antarctica during a voyage. Furthermore, the frequency of LRT pollution episodes of fine particles in southern Finland was investigated over a period of 8 years, using long-term air quality monitoring data. In southern Finland, the annual mean PM2.5 mass concentrations were low but LRT caused high peaks of daily mean concentrations every year. At an urban background site in Helsinki, the updated WHO guideline value (24-h PM2.5 mean 25 μg/m3) was exceeded during 1-7 LRT episodes each year during 1999-2006. The daily mean concentrations varied between 25 and 49 μg/m3 during the episodes, which was 3-6 times higher than the mean concentration in the long term. The in-depth studies of selected LRT episodes in southern Finland revealed that biomass burning in agricultural fields and wildfires, occurring mainly in Eastern Europe, deteriorated air quality on a continental scale. The strongest LRT episodes of fine particles resulted from open biomass-burning fires but the emissions from other anthropogenic sources in Eastern Europe also caused significant LRT episodes. Particle mass and number concentrations increased strongly in the accumulation mode (Dp ~ 0.09-1 μm) during the LRT episodes. However, the concentrations of smaller particles (Dp < 0.09 μm) remained low or even decreased due to the uptake of vapours and molecular clusters by LRT particles. The chemical analysis of individual particles showed that the proportions of several anthropogenic particle types increased (e.g. tar balls, metal oxides/hydroxides, spherical silicate fly ash particles and various calcium-rich particles) in southern Finland during an LRT episode, when aerosols originated from the polluted regions of Eastern Europe and some open biomass-burning smoke was also brought in by LRT. During unpolluted periods when air masses arrived from the north, the proportions of marine aerosols increased. In unpolluted rural regions of southern Finland, both accumulation mode particles and small-sized (Dp ~ 1-3 μm) coarse mode particles originated mostly from LRT. However, the composition of particles was totally different in these size fractions. In both size fractions, strong internal mixing of chemical components was typical for LRT particles. Thus, the aging of particles has significant impacts on their chemical, hygroscopic and optical properties, which can largely alter the environmental and health effects of LRT aerosols. Over the Atlantic Ocean, the individual particle composition of small-sized (Dp ~ 1-3 μm) coarse mode particles was affected by continental aerosol plumes to distances of at least 100-1000 km from the coast (e.g. pollutants from industrialized Europe, desert dust from the Sahara and biomass-burning aerosols near the Gulf of Guinea). The rate of chloride depletion from sea-salt particles was high near the coasts of Europe and Africa when air masses arrived from polluted continental regions. Thus, the LRT of continental aerosols had significant impacts on the composition of the marine boundary-layer atmosphere and seawater. In conclusion, integration of the results obtained using different measurement techniques captured the large spatial and temporal variability of aerosols as observed at terrestrial and marine sites, and assisted in establishing the causal link between land-bound emissions, LRT and air quality.

Environmental effects of thermal and radioactive discharges from nuclear power plants in the boreal brackish-water conditions of the northern Baltic Sea

During recent decades, thermal and radioactive discharges from nuclear power plants into the aquatic environment have become the subject of lively debate as an ecological concern. The target of this thesis was to summarize the large quantity of results obtained in extensive monitoring programmes and studies carried out in recipient sea areas off the Finnish nuclear power plants at Loviisa and Olkiluoto during more than four decades. The Loviisa NPP is located on the coast of the Gulf of Finland and Olkiluoto NPP on that of the Bothnian Sea. The state of the Gulf of Finland is clearly more eutrophic; the nutrient concentrations in the surface water are about 1½ 2 times higher at Loviisa than at Olkiluoto, and the total phosphorus concentrations still increased in both areas (even doubled at Loviisa) between the early 1970s and 2000. Thus, it is a challenge to distinguish the local effects of thermal discharges from the general eutrophication process of the Gulf of Finland. The salinity is generally low in the brackish-water conditions of the northern Baltic Sea, being however about 1 higher at Olkiluoto than at Loviisa (the salinity of surface water varying at the latter from near to 0 in early spring to 4 6 in late autumn). Thus, many marine and fresh-water organisms live in the Loviisa area close to their limit of existence, which makes the biota sensitive to any additional stress. The characteristics of the discharge areas of the two sites differ from each other in many respects: the discharge area at Loviisa is a semi-enclosed bay in the inner archipelago, where the exchange of water is limited, while the discharge area at Olkiluoto is more open, and the exchange of water with the open Bothnian Sea is more effective. The effects of the cooling water discharged from the power plants on the temperatures in the sea were most obvious in winter. The formation of a permanent ice cover in the discharge areas has been delayed in early winter, and the break-up of the ice occurs earlier in spring. The prolonging of the growing season and the disturbance of the overwintering time, in conditions where the biota has adjusted to a distinct rest period in winter, have been the most significant biological effects of the thermal pollution. The soft-bottom macrofauna at Loviisa has deteriorated to the point of almost total extinction at many sampling stations during the past 40 years. A similar decline has been reported for the whole eastern Gulf of Finland. However, the local eutrophication process seems to have contributed into the decline of the zoobenthos in the discharge area at Loviisa. Thermal discharges have increased the production of organic matter, which again has led to more organic bottom deposits. These have in turn increased the tendency of the isolated deeps to a depletion of oxygen, and this has further caused strong remobilization of phosphorus from the bottom sediments. Phytoplankton primary production and primary production capacity doubled in the whole area between the late 1960s and the late 1990s, but started to decrease a little at the beginning of this century. The focus of the production shifted from spring to mid- and late summer. The general rise in the level of primary production was mainly due to the increase in nutrient concentrations over the whole Gulf of Finland, but the thermal discharge contributed to a stronger increase of production in the discharge area compared to that in the intake area. The eutrophication of littoral vegetation in the discharge area has been the most obvious, unambiguous and significant biological effect of the heated water. Myriophyllum spicatum, Potamogeton perfoliatus and Potamogeton pectinatus, and vigorous growths of numerous filamentous algae as their epiphytes have strongly increased in the vicinity of the cooling water outlet, where they have formed dense populations in the littoral zone in late summer. However, the strongest increase of phytobenthos has extended only to a distance of about 1 km from the outlet, i.e., the changes in vegetation have been largest in those areas that remain ice-free in winter. Similar trends were also discernible at Olkiluoto, but to a clearly smaller extent, which was due to the definitely weaker level of background eutrophy and nutrient concentrations in the Bothnian Sea, and the differing local hydrographical and biological factors prevailing in the Olkiluoto area. The level of primary production has also increased at Olkiluoto, but has remained at a clearly lower level than at Loviisa. In spite of the analogous changes observed in the macrozoobenthos, the benthic fauna has remained strong and diversified in the Olkiluoto area. Small amounts of local discharge nuclides were regularly detected in environmental samples taken from the discharge areas: tritium in seawater samples, and activation products, such as 60Co, 58Co, 54Mn, 110mAg, 51Cr, in suspended particulate matter, bottom sediments and in several indicator organisms (e.g., periphyton and Fucus vesiculosus) that effectively accumulate radioactive substances from the medium. The tritium discharges and the consequent detection frequency and concentrations of tritium in seawater were higher at Loviisa, but the concentrations of the activation products were higher at Olkiluoto, where traces of local discharge nuclides were also observed over a clearly wider area, due to the better exchange of water than at Loviisa, where local discharge nuclides were only detected outside Hästholmsfjärden Bay quite rarely and in smaller amounts. At the farthest, an insignificant trace amount (0.2 Bq kg-1 d.w.) of 60Co originating from Olkiluoto was detected in Fucus at a distance of 137 km from the power plant. Discharge nuclides from the local nuclear power plants were almost exclusively detected at the lower trophic levels of the ecosystems. Traces of local discharge nuclides were very seldom detected in fish, and even then only in very low quantities. As a consequence of the reduced discharges, the concentrations of local discharge nuclides in the environment have decreased noticeably in recent years at both Loviisa and Olkiluoto. Although the concentrations in environmental samples, and above all, the discharge data, are presented as seemingly large numbers, the radiation doses caused by them to the population and to the biota are very low, practically insignificant. The effects of the thermal discharges have been more significant, at least to the wildlife in the discharge areas of the cooling water, although the area of impact has been relatively small. The results show that the nutrient level and the exchange of water in the discharge area of a nuclear power plant are of crucial importance.