Paradigms in Statistical Inference for Finite Populations; Up to the 1950s

Modern sample surveys started to spread after statistician at the U.S. Bureau of the Census in the 1940s had developed a sampling design for the Current Population Survey (CPS). A significant factor was also that digital computers became available for statisticians. In the beginning of 1950s, the theory was documented in textbooks on survey sampling. This thesis is about the development of the statistical inference for sample surveys. For the first time the idea of statistical inference was enunciated by a French scientist, P. S. Laplace. In 1781, he published a plan for a partial investigation in which he determined the sample size needed to reach the desired accuracy in estimation. The plan was based on Laplace s Principle of Inverse Probability and on his derivation of the Central Limit Theorem. They were published in a memoir in 1774 which is one of the origins of statistical inference. Laplace s inference model was based on Bernoulli trials and binominal probabilities. He assumed that populations were changing constantly. It was depicted by assuming a priori distributions for parameters. Laplace s inference model dominated statistical thinking for a century. Sample selection in Laplace s investigations was purposive. In 1894 in the International Statistical Institute meeting, Norwegian Anders Kiaer presented the idea of the Representative Method to draw samples. Its idea was that the sample would be a miniature of the population. It is still prevailing. The virtues of random sampling were known but practical problems of sample selection and data collection hindered its use. Arhtur Bowley realized the potentials of Kiaer s method and in the beginning of the 20th century carried out several surveys in the UK. He also developed the theory of statistical inference for finite populations. It was based on Laplace s inference model. R. A. Fisher contributions in the 1920 s constitute a watershed in the statistical science He revolutionized the theory of statistics. In addition, he introduced a new statistical inference model which is still the prevailing paradigm. The essential idea is to draw repeatedly samples from the same population and the assumption that population parameters are constants. Fisher s theory did not include a priori probabilities. Jerzy Neyman adopted Fisher s inference model and applied it to finite populations with the difference that Neyman s inference model does not include any assumptions of the distributions of the study variables. Applying Fisher s fiducial argument he developed the theory for confidence intervals. Neyman s last contribution to survey sampling presented a theory for double sampling. This gave the central idea for statisticians at the U.S. Census Bureau to develop the complex survey design for the CPS. Important criterion was to have a method in which the costs of data collection were acceptable, and which provided approximately equal interviewer workloads, besides sufficient accuracy in estimation.

Publishing in the Networked World: Transforming the Nature of Communication, 14th International Conference on Electronic Publishing 16-18 June 2010, Helsinki, Finland

The title of the 14th International Conference on Electronic Publishing (ELPUB), “Publishing in the networked world: Transforming the nature of communication”, is a timely one. Scholarly communication and scientific publishing has recently been undergoing subtle changes. Published papers are no longer fixed physical objects, as they once were. The “convergence” of information, communication, publishing and web technologies along with the emergence of Web 2.0 and social networks has completely transformed scholarly communication and scientific papers turned to living and changing entities in the online world. The themes (electronic publishing and social networks; scholarly publishing models; and technological convergence) selected for the conference are meant to address the issues involved in this transformation process. We are pleased to present the proceedings book with more than 30 papers and short communications addressing these issues. What you hold in your hands is a by-product and the culmination of almost a Year long work of many people including conference organizers, authors, reviewers, editors and print and online publishers. The ELPUB 2010 conference was organized and hosted by the Hanken School of Economics in Helsinki, Finland. Professors Turid Hedlund of Hanken School of Economics and Yaşar Tonta of Hacettepe University Department of Information Management (Ankara, Turkey) served as General Chair and Program Chair, respectively. We received more than 50 submissions from several countries. All submissions were peer-reviewed by members of an international Program Committee whose contributions proved most valuable and appreciated. The 14th ELPUB conference carries on the tradition of previous conferences held in the United Kingdom (1997 and 2001), Hungary (1998), Sweden (1999), Russia (2000), the Czech Republic (2002), Portugal (2003), Brazil (2004), Belgium (2005), Bulgaria (2006), Austria (2007), Canada (2008) and Italy (2009). The ELPUB Digital Library, http://elpub.scix.net serves as archive for the papers presented at the ELPUB conferences through the years. The 15th ELPUB conference will be organized by the Department of Information Management of Hacettepe University and will take place in Ankara, Turkey, from 14-16 June 2011. (Details can be found at the ELPUB web site as the conference date nears by.) We thank Marcus Sandberg and Hannu Sääskilahti for copyediting, Library Director Tua Hindersson – Söderholm for accepting to publish the online as well as the print version of the proceedings. Thanks also to Patrik Welling for maintaining the conference web site and Tanja Dahlgren for administrative support. We warmly acknowledge the support in organizing the conference to colleagues at Hanken School of Economics and our sponsors.