Ilmastonmuutoksen ääri-ilmiöihin liittyvän riskienhallinnan kustannus–hyötyanalyysi osana julkista päätöksentekoa. IRTORISKI-hankkeen loppuraportti.

IRTORISKI-hankkeessa tutkittiin, miten kustannus–hyötyanalyysin käyttöä ilmastonmuutoksen sopeutumissuunnittelussa voitaisiin helpottaa niin, että sitä pystyttäisiin hyödyntämään kustannustehokkaasti sekä ilmastonmuutokseen liittyvien vaarojen priorisoinnissa että ennaltaehkäisevien toimenpiteiden vertailussa. Tutkimuksessa käytettiin esimerkkitapauksina jokitulvaa ja rankkasateiden aiheuttamaa tulvaa kaupunkiolosuhteissa. Tapahtumapuuanalyysia laajennettiin siten, että siitä käyvät ilmi sekä suorat vahingot että lopulliset makrotaloudelliset vaikutukset. Arviot suorista taloudellisista vahingoista perustuivat aikaisempiin tutkimuksiin, kun taas makrotaloudellisia vaikutuksia simuloitiin yleisen tasapainon mallin avulla. Tapaustutkimusten valinnasta, tapahtumapuun käytöstä, sen laajennusosasta sekä lasketuista makrotaloudellisista vaikutuksista keskusteltiin sidosryhmien edustajien kanssa kolmessa asiantuntijaistunnossa.

Postglacial climate changes and vegetation responses in northern Europe

Postglacial climate changes and vegetation responses were studied using a combination of biological and physical indicators preserved in lake sediments. Low-frequency trends, high-frequency events and rapid shifts in temperature and moisture balance were probed using pollen-based quantitative temperature reconstructions and oxygen-isotopes from authigenic carbonate and aquatic cellulose, respectively. Pollen and plant macrofossils were employed to shed light on the presence and response rates of plant populations in response to climate changes, particularly focusing on common boreal and temperate tree species. Additional geochemical and isotopic tracers facilitated the interpretation of pollen- and oxygen-isotope data. The results show that the common boreal trees were present in the Baltic region (~55°N) during the Lateglacial, which contrasts with the traditional view of species refuge locations in the south-European peninsulas during the glacial/interglacial cycles. The findings of this work are in agreement with recent paleoecological and genetic evidence suggesting that scattered populations of tree species persisted at higher latitudes, and that these taxa were likely limited to boreal trees. Moreover, the results demonstrate that stepwise changes in plant communities took place in concert with major climate fluctuations of the glacial/interglacial transition. Postglacial climate trends in northern Europe were characterized by rise, maxima and fall in temperatures and related changes in moisture balance. Following the deglaciation of the Northern Hemisphere and the early Holocene reorganization of the ice-ocean-atmosphere system, the long-term temperature trends followed gradually decreasing summer insolation. The early Holocene (~11,700-8000 cal yr BP) was overall cool, moist and oceanic, although the earliest Holocene effective humidity may have been low particularly in the eastern part of northern Europe. The gradual warming trend was interrupted by a cold event ~8200 cal yr BP. The maximum temperatures, ~1.5-3.0°C above modern values, were attained ~8000-4000 cal yr BP. This mid-Holocene peak warmth was coupled with low lake levels, low effective humidity and summertime drought. The late Holocene (~4000 cal yr BP-present) was characterized by gradually decreasing temperatures, higher lake levels and higher effective humidity. Moreover, the gradual trends of the late Holocene were probably superimposed by higher-frequency variability. The spatial variability of the Holocene temperature and moisture balance patterns were tentatively attributed to the differing heat capacities of continents and oceans, changes in atmospheric circulation modes and position of sites and subregions with respect to large water bodies and topographic barriers. The combination of physical and biological proxy archives is a pivotal aspect of this work, because non-climatic factors, such as postglacial migration, disturbances and competitive interactions, can influence reshuffling of vegetation and hence, pollen-based climate reconstructions. The oxygen-isotope records and other physical proxies presented in this work manifest that postglacial climate changes were the main driver of the establishment and expansion of temperate and boreal tree populations, and hence, large-scale and long-term vegetation patterns were in dynamic equilibrium with climate. A notable exception to this pattern may be the postglacial invasion of Norway spruce and the related suppression of mid-Holocene temperate forest. This salient step in north-European vegetation history, the development of the modern boreal ecosystem, cannot be unambiguously explained by current evidence of postglacial climate changes. The results of this work highlight that plant populations, including long-lived trees, may be able to respond strikingly rapidly to changes in climate. Moreover, interannual and seasonal variation and extreme events can exert an important influence on vegetation reshuffling. Importantly, the studies imply that the presence of diffuse refuge populations or local stands among the prevailing vegetation may have provided the means for extraordinarily rapid vegetation responses. Hence, if scattered populations are not provided and tree populations are to migrate long distances, their capacity to keep up with predicted rates of future climate change may be lower than previously thought.

Matti Laurila : Jääkäriupseeri, suojeluskuntapäällikkö, rintamakomentaja

Matti Laurila (1895 1983) This is a biographical research of a Jaeger officer, a Civil Guard Chief, a Field Commander Matti Laurila. A broader practice of qualitative methods was utilized in the research. The main aim is a permanent reconstruction and reinterpretation of past events through the experiences of the study object. The life and times of Laurila are intertwined with the crucial events that led to the Finnish Declaration of Independence. Afterwards he helped to ensure that the young republic also stayed independent. As a Jaeger in the winter of 1917 Laurila witnessed an incident he would never forget. After disobeying a direct order, Sven Saarikoski from Lapua was shot dead by his commanding officer, K. A. Ståhlberg, on the ice of the river Aa. Laurila faced the horrors of war at closer quarters, for he lost his father and his brother in the battle of Länkipohja on 16th March 1918. This battle was a major turning point for Laurila and profoundly influenced the rest of his life. The relationship between Laurila and his superiors was problematic almost throughout his military career, haunted as he was by the memory of Sven Saarikoski's execution and the losses in Länkipohja The position of Laurila as an authority in South Ostrobothnia was a key factor in preventing the extreme right from rallying enough Civil Guard troops to escalate the embryonic Mäntsälä rebellion of 1932. After the rebellion Laurila routinely opposed anything he saw as a threat to the independence of the Civil Guard. He would flatly refuse to even consider the integration of the Civil Guard into the national defence force. His uncompromising stand in this matter annoyed some among the higher ranking officers. After the Winter War Laurila got himself into a dispute with Jaeger Colonel H. E. Hannuksela that would have long-lasting consequences. The conflicts between them became widely known in the attack phase of the Continuation War in 1941 at the latest. Laurila had to give up his military career at the end of 1944. In the years that followed he did what he could to ensure that the South Ostrobothnia Civil Guard patrimony remained in the province. Laurila's position as a respected authority in South Ostrobothnia remained unchanged until his death.

Cellular and network mechanisms generating spontaneous population events in the immature rat hippocampus

Distinct endogenous network events, generated independently of sensory input, are a general feature of various structures of the immature central nervous system. In the immature hippocampus, these type of events are seen as "giant depolarizing potentials" (GDPs) in intracellular recordings in vitro. GABA, the major inhibitory neurotransmitter of the adult brain, has a depolarizing action in immature neurons, and GDPs have been proposed to be driven by GABAergic transmission. Moreover, GDPs have been thought to reflect an early pattern that disappears during development in parallel with the maturation of hyperpolarizing GABAergic inhibition. However, the adult hippocampus in vivo also generates endogenous network events known as sharp (positive) waves (SPWs), which reflect synchronous discharges of CA3 pyramidal neurons and are thought to be involved in cognitive functions. In this thesis, mechanisms of GDP generation were studied with intra- and extracellular recordings in the neonatal rat hippocampus in vitro and in vivo. Immature CA3 pyramidal neurons were found to generate intrinsic bursts of spikes and to act as cellular pacemakers for GDP activity whereas depolarizing GABAergic signalling was found to have a temporally non-patterned facilitatory role in the generation of the network events. Furthermore, the data indicate that the intrinsic bursts of neonatal CA3 pyramidal neurons and, consequently, GDPs are driven by a persistent Na+ current and terminated by a slow Ca2+-dependent K+ current. Gramicidin-perforated patch recordings showed that the depolarizing driving force for GABAA receptor-mediated actions is provided by Cl- uptake via the Na-K-C1 cotransporter, NKCC1, in the immature CA3 pyramids. A specific blocker of NKCC1, bumetanide, inhibited SPWs and GDPs in the neonatal rat hippocampus in vivo and in vitro, respectively. Finally, pharmacological blockade of the GABA transporter-1 prolonged the decay of the large GDP-associated GABA transients but not of single postsynaptic GABAA receptor-mediated currents. As a whole the data in this thesis indicate that the mechanism of GDP generation, based on the interconnected network of bursting CA3 pyramidal neurons, is similar to that involved in adult SPW activity. Hence, GDPs do not reflect a network pattern that disappears during development but they are the in vitro counterpart of neonatal SPWs.

Life events and social support among patients with major depressive disorder

The study is part of a research project of 269 psychiatric patients with major depression, Vantaa Depression Study, in the Department of Mental Health and Alcohol Research of the National Public Health Institute and the Department of Psychiatry of the Peijas Medical Care District. The aim was to study at the onset of MDE psychosocial differences in subgroups of patients and clustering of events into time before depression and its prodromal phase, to study whether more severe life events and less social support predict poorer outcome in all patients, but most among those currently in partial remission, whether social support declines as a consequence of time spent in MDE, is sensitive to improvement, and whether social support is influenced by neuroticism and extraversion. After screening, a semistructured interview (SCAN, version 2.0) was used for the presence of DSM-IV MDE, and other psychiatric diagnoses. Life events and social support were studied with semistructured methods (IRLE, Paykel 1983; IMSR, Brugha et al. 1987), perceived social support and neuroticism/extraversion with questionnaires (PSSS-R, Blumenthal et al. 1987; EPI, Eysenck and Eysenck 1964) at baseline, 6 and 18 months. At the onset of depression life events were common. No major differences between subgroups of patients were found; the younger had more events, whereas those with comorbid alcoholism and personality disorders perceived less support. Although events were distributed evenly between the time before depression, the prodromal phase and the index MDE, two thirds of the patients attributed their depression to some life event. Adversities and poor perceived support influenced the outcome of all psychiatric patients, most in the subgroup of full remission. In the partial remission group, the impact of severe events and in the MDE, perceived support was important. Low objective and subjective support were predicted by longer time spent in MDE. Along with improvement subjective support improved. Neuroticism and extraversion were associated with the size of social network and perceived support and predicted change of perceived support. In conclusion, adversities were common in all phases of depression. They may thus have many roles; before depression they may precipitate it, in the prodromal phase worsen symptoms, and during the MDE, the outcome of depression. Patients often attributed their depression to a life event. Psychosocial subgroup differences were quite small. Perceived support predicted the outcome of depression, and time spent in MDE objective and subjective support. Neuroticism and extraversion may modify the level and change particularly in perceived support, thereby indirectly effecting vulnerability to depression.

Winter feeding strategies for suckler cows in cold climatic conditions

In Finland, suckler cow production is carried out in circumstances characterized by a long winter period and a short grazing period. The traditional winter housing system for suckler cows has been insulated or uninsulated buildings, but there is a demand for developing less expensive housing systems. In addition, more information is needed on new winter feeding strategies, carried out in inexpensive winter facilities with conventional (hay, grass silage, straw) or alternative (treated straw, industrial by-product, whole-crop silage) feeds. The new feeding techniques should not have any detrimental effects on animal welfare in order to be acceptable to both farmers and consumers. Furthermore, no official feeding recommendations for suckler cows are available in Finland and, thus, recommendations for dairy cows have been used. However, this may lead to over- or underfeeding of suckler cows and, finally, to decreased economic output. In Experiment I, second-calf beef-dairy suckler cows were used to compare the effects of diets based on hay (H) or urea-treated straw (US) at two feeding levels (Moderate; M vs. Low; L) on the performance of cows and calves. Live weight (LW) gain during the indoor feeding was lower for cows on level L than on level M. Cows on diet US lost more LW indoors than those on diet H. The cows replenished the LW losses on good pasture. Calf LW gain and cow milk production were unaffected by the treatments. Conception rate was unaffected by the treatments but was only 69%. Urea-treated straw proved to be a suitable winter feed for spring-calving suckler cows. Experiment II studied the effects of feeding accuracy on the performance of first- and second-calf beef-dairy cows and calves. In II-1, the day-to-day variation in the roughage offered ranged up to ± 40%. In II-2, the same variation was used in two-week periods. Variation of the roughages offered had minor effects on cow performance. Reproduction was unaffected by the feeding accuracy. Accurate feeding is not necessary for young beef-dairy crosses, if the total amount of energy offered over a period of a few weeks fulfills the energy requirements. Effects of feeding strategies with alternative feeds on the performance of mature beef-dairy and beef cows and calves were evaluated in Experiment III. Two studies consisted of two feeding strategies (Step-up vs. Flat-rate) and two diets (Control vs. Alternative). There were no differences between treatments in the cow LW, body condition score (BCS), calf pre-weaning LW gain and cow reproduction. A flat-rate strategy can be practised in the nutrition of mature suckler cows. Oat hull based flour-mill by product can partly replace grass silage and straw in the winter diet. Whole-crop barley silage can be offered as a sole feed to suckler cows. Experiment IV evaluated during the winter feeding period the effects of replacing grass silage with whole-crop barley or oat silage on mature beef cow and calf performance. Both whole-crop silages were suitable winter feeds for suckler cows in cold outdoor winter conditions. Experiment V aimed at assessing the effects of daily feeding vs. feeding every third day on the performance of mature beef cows and calves. No differences between the treatments were observed in cow LW, BCS, milk production and calf LW. The serum concentrations of urea and long-chain fatty acids were increased on the third day after feeding in the cows fed every third day. Despite of that the feeding every third day is an acceptable feeding strategy for mature suckler cows. Experiment VI studied the effects of feeding levels and long-term cold climatic conditions on mature beef cows and calves. The cows were overwintered in outdoor facilities or in an uninsulated indoor facility. Whole-crop barley silage was offered either ad libitum or restricted. All the facilities offered adequate shelter for the cows. The restricted offering of whole-crop barley silage provided enough energy for the cows. The Finnish energy recommendations for dairy cows were too high for mature beef breed suckler cows in good body condition at housing, even in cold conditions. Therefore, there is need to determine feeding recommendations for suckler cows in Finland. The results showed that the required amount of energy can be offered to the cows using conventional or alternative feeds provided at a lower feeding level, with an inaccurate feeding, flat-rate feeding or feeding every third day strategy. The cows must have an opportunity to replenish the LW and BCS losses at pasture before the next winter. Production in cold conditions can be practised in inexpensive facilities when shelter against rain and wind, a dry resting place, adequate amounts of feed suitable for cold conditions and water are provided for the animals as was done in the present study.

Climate forcing on avian life history

In the 21st century, human-induced global climate change has been highlighted as one of the most serious threats to ecosystems worldwide. According to global climate scenarios, the mean temperature in Finland is expected to increase by 1.8 4.0°C by the end of the century. The regional and seasonal change in temperature has predicted to be spatially and temporally asymmetric, where the High-Arctic and Antarctic areas and winter and spring seasons have been projected to face the highest temperature increase. To understand how species respond to the ongoing climate change, we need to study how climate affects species in different phases of their life cycle. The impact of climate on breeding and migration of eight large-sized bird species was studied in this thesis, taking food availability into account. The findings show that climatic variables have considerable impact on the life-history traits of large-sized birds in northern Europe. The magnitude of climatic effects on migration and breeding was comparable with that of food supply, conventionally regarded as the main factor affecting these life-history traits. Based on the results of this thesis and the current climate scenarios, the following not mutually exclusive responses are possible in the near future. Firstly, asymmetric climate change may result in a mistiming of breeding because mild winters and early spring may lead to earlier breeding, whereas offspring are hatching into colder conditions which elevate mortality. Secondly, climate induced responses can differ between species with different breeding tactics (income vs. capital breeding), so that especially capital breeders can gain advantage on global warming as they can sustain higher energy resources. Thirdly, increasing precipitation has the potential to reduce the breeding success of many species by exposing nestlings to more severe post-hatching conditions and hampering the hunting conditions of parents. Fourthly, decreasing ice cover and earlier ice-break in the Baltic Sea will allow earlier spring migration in waterfowl. In eiders, this can potentially lead to more productive breeding. Fifthly, warming temperatures can favour parents preparing for breeding and increase nestling survival. Lastly, the climate-induced phenological changes in life history events will likely continue. Furthermore, interactions between climate and food resources can be complex and interact with each other. Eiders provide an illustrative example of this complexity, being caught in the crossfire between more benign ice conditions and lower salinity negatively affecting their prime food resource. The general conclusion is that climate is controlling not only the phenology of the species but also their reproductive output, thus affecting the entire population dynamics.

DNA Packaging and Host Cell Lysis: Late Events in Bacteriophage PRD1 Infection

The object of this study is a tailless internal membrane-containing bacteriophage PRD1. It has a dsDNA genome with covalently bound terminal proteins required for replication. The uniqueness of the structure makes this phage a desirable object of research. PRD1 has been studied for some 30 years during which time a lot of information has accumulated on its structure and life-cycle. The two least characterised steps of the PRD1 life-cycle, the genome packaging and virus release are investigated here. PRD1 shares the main principles of virion assembly (DNA packaging in particular) and host cell lysis with other dsDNA bacteriophages. However, this phage has some fascinating individual peculiarities, such as DNA packaging into a membrane vesicle inside the capsid, absence of apparent portal protein, holin inhibitor and procapsid expansion. In the course of this study we have identified the components of the DNA packaging vertex of the capsid, and determined the function of protein P6 in packaging. We managed to purify the procapsids for an in vitro packaging system, optimise the reaction and significantly increase its efficiency. We developed a new method to determine DNA translocation and were able to quantify the efficiency and the rate of packaging. A model for PRD1 DNA packaging was also proposed. Another part of this study covers the lysis of the host cell. As other dsDNA bacteriophages PRD1 has been proposed to utilise a two-component lysis system. The existence of this lysis system in PRD1 has been proven by experiments using recombinant proteins and the multi-step nature of the lysis process has been established.

From the river to the open sea - a critical life phase of young Atlantic salmon migrating from the Simojoki river

Long-term monitoring data collected from wild smolts of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in the Simojoki river, northern Finland, were used in studying the relationships between the smolt size and age, smolt and postsmolt migration, environmental conditions and postsmolt survival. The onset of the smolt run was significantly dependent on the rising water temperature and decreasing discharge of the river in the spring. The mean length of smolts migrating early in the season was commonly higher and the mean age always older than among smolts migrating later. Many of the smolts migrating early in the season and almost all smolts migrating later had started their new growth in spring in the river before their sea entry. Among postsmolts, the time required for emigration from the estuary was dependent on the sea surface temperature (SST) off the river, being significantly shorter in years with warm than cold sea temperatures. After leaving the estuary, the postsmolts migrated southwards along the eastern coast of the northern Gulf of Bothnia, the geographical distribution of the tag recoveries coinciding with the warm thermal zone in spring in the coastal area. After arriving in the southern Gulf of Bothnia in late summer the postsmolts mostly migrated near the western coast, reaching the Baltic Main Basin in late autumn. Until the early 1990s there was only a weak positive association between smolt length and postsmolt survival. However, following a subsequent decrease in the mean smolt size, a significant positive dependence was observed between smolt size and the reported recapture rate of tagged salmon. The differences in recapture rates between smolts tagged during the first and second half of the annual migration season were insignificant, indicating that the seasonal variation in smolt size and age seem to be too small to affect survival. Among the climatic factors examined, the summer SST in the Gulf of Bothnia was most clearly related to the survival of the wild postsmolts. Postsmolt survival appeared to be highest in years when the SST in June in the Bothnian Bay varied between 9 and 12 ºC. In addition, the survival of wild postsmolts showed a significant positive dependence on the SST in July in the Bothnian Sea, but not on the abundance of the prey fish (0+ herring, Clupea harengus and sprat, Sprattus sprattus) in the Bothnian Sea and in the Baltic Main Basin. The results suggest, that if the incidence of extreme weather conditions were to increase due to climatic changes, it would probably reduce the postsmolt survival of wild salmon populations. For improving the performance of hatchery-reared smolts, it could be useful to examine opportunities to produce smolts that are in their smolt traits and abilities more similar to the wild smolts described in this thesis.

Ionosphere-atmosphere interaction during solar proton events

Among the most striking natural phenomena affecting ozone are solar proton events (SPE), during which high-energy protons precipitate into the middle atmosphere in the polar regions. Ionisation caused by the protons results in changes in the lower ionosphere, and in production of neutral odd nitrogen and odd hydrogen species which then destroy ozone in well-known catalytic chemical reaction chains. Large SPEs are able to decrease the ozone concentration of upper stratosphere and mesosphere, but are not expected to significantly affect the ozone layer at 15--30~km altitude. In this work we have used the Sodankylä Ion and Neutral Chemistry Model (SIC) in studies of the short-term effects caused by SPEs. The model results were found to be in a good agreement with ionospheric observations from incoherent scatter radars, riometers, and VLF radio receivers as well as with measurements from the GOMOS/Envisat satellite instrument. For the first time, GOMOS was able to observe the SPE effects on odd nitrogen and ozone in the winter polar region. Ozone observations from GOMOS were validated against those from MIPAS/Envisat instrument, and a good agreement was found throughout the middle atmosphere. For the case of the SPE of October/November 2003, long-term ozone depletion was observed in the upper stratosphere. The depletion was further enhanced by the descent of odd nitrogen from the mesosphere inside the polar vortex, until the recovery occurred in late December. During the event, substantial diurnal variation of ozone depletion was seen in the mesosphere, caused mainly by the the strong diurnal cycle of the odd hydrogen species. In the lower ionosphere, SPEs increase the electron density which is very low in normal conditions. Therefore, SPEs make radar observations easier. In the case of the SPE of October, 1989, we studied the sunset transition of negative charge from electrons to ions, a long-standing problem. The observed phenomenon, which is controlled by the amount of solar radiation, was successfully explained by considering twilight changes in both the rate of photodetachment of negative ions and concentrations of minor neutral species. Changes in the magnetic field of the Earth control the extent of SPE-affected area. For the SPE of November 2001, the results indicated that for low and middle levels of geomagnetic disturbance the estimated cosmic radio noise absorption levels based on a magnetic field model are in a good agreement with ionospheric observations. For high levels of disturbance, the model overestimates the stretching of the geomagnetic field and the geographical extent of SPE-affected area. This work shows the importance of ionosphere-atmosphere interaction for SPE studies. By using both ionospheric and atmospheric observations, we have been able to cover for the most part the whole chain of SPE-triggered processes, from proton-induced ionisation to depletion of ozone.