The influence of school smoking policy and school prevention programs on the smoking behaviour of high school students in Prince Edward Island, Canada

The aim of the study was to examine the influence of school smoking policy and school smoking prevention programs on the smoking behaviour of students in high schools in Prince Edward Island using the School Health Action Planning Evaluation System (SHAPES). A total sample included 13,131 observations of students in grades 10-12 in ten high schools in Prince Edward Island over three waves of data collection (1999, 2000, and 2001). Changes in prevalence of smoking and factors influencing smoking behaviour were analyzed using descriptive statistics and Chi-Square tests. Multi-level logistic regression analyses were used to examine how both school and student characteristics were associated with smoking behaviour (I, II, III, IV). Since students were located within schools, a basic 2-level nested structure was used in which individual students (level 1) were nested within schools (level 2). For grade 12 students, the combination of both school policies and programs was not associated with the risk of smoking and the presence of the new policy was not associated with decreased risk of smoking, unless there were clear rules in place (I). For the grade 10 study, (II) schools with both policies and programs were not associated with decreased risk of smoking. However, the smoking behaviour of older students (grade 12) at a school was associated with younger students’ (grade 10) smoking behaviour. Students first enrolled in a high school in grade 9, rather than grade 10, were at increased risk of occasional smoking. For students who transitioned from grade 10 to 12 (III), close friends smoking had a substantial influence on smoking behaviour for both males and females (III). Having one or more close friends who smoke (Odds Ratio (OR) = 37.46; 95% CI = 19.39 to 72.36), one or more smokers in the home (OR = 2.35; 95% CI = 1.67 to 3.30) and seeing teachers and staff smoking on or near school property (OR=1.78; 95% CI = 1.13 to 2.80), were strongly associated with increased risk of smoking for grade 12 students. Smoking behaviour increased for both junior (Group 1) and senior (Group 2) students (IV). Group 1 students indicated a greater decrease in smoking behaviour and factors influencing smoking behaviour compared to those of Group 2. Students overestimating the percentage of youth their age who smoke was strongly associated with increased likelihood of smoking. Smoking rates showed a decreasing trend (1999, 2000, and 2001). However, policies and programs alone were not successful in influencing smoking behaviour of youth. Rather, factors within the students and schools contextual environment influenced smoking behaviour. Comprehensive approaches are required for school-based tobacco prevention interventions. Keywords: schools, policy, programs, smoking prevention, adolescents Subject Terms: school-based programming, public health, health promotion

Smoking from Adolescence to Adulthood : A 15-year Follow-up of the North Karelia Youth Project

The aim of the study was to examine the effects of a smoking prevention program and smoking from early adolescence to early adulthood by using longitudinal data. In addition, predictors of smoking, smoking cessation, and associations of smoking with socio-economic factors and other health behaviours were assessed. The data was gathered in connection with the North Karelia Youth Project follow-up study during 15 years. A two-year cardiovascular disease risk factor prevention program was carried out among students from grades seven to nine in four schools in North Karelia. Two schools were selected from Kuopio province for the control schools. The North Karelia Project, a community-based cardiovascular disease prevention program, was implemented in the same area. At the baseline in 1978 the subjects were 13-year-olds (n=903) and in the following surveys 15-, 16-, 17-, 21- and 28-year-olds. The parents of the subjects were studied twice, in 1978 and 1980. A two-year intervention based on social influence approach prevented the onset of smoking for several years. The continuity of smoking from adolescence to adulthood was strong: most adolescent smokers were still smoking in adulthood. Moreover, approximately half of the 28-year-old smokers had started smoking after the age of 15. Previous smoking status and smoking by friends were the most important predictors of smoking. One third of all adolescent smokers had stopped smoking before the age of 28, averaging at 2.3 % annual decline. The socioeconomic status of the subject and, especially, education were strongly related to smoking, the lower socioeconomic groups smoking the most. Parental socioeconomic status and intergenerational social mobility were not significantly related to the smoking of the subject in adolescence or adulthood. Smoking was associated positively with the use of alcohol and negatively with physical activity from adolescence to adulthood. The results support the feasibility of a school-based social influence program with a community-based program in smoking prevention among adolescents. Strong continuity of smoking from adolescence to adulthood supports the importance of preventing the onset of smoking in adolescence. It would be useful to continue prevention programs also after the comprehensive school, since so many young start smoking after that. It would likewise be important to develop cessation programs tailor-made for adolescents and young adults. Additionally, the results support the importance of using methods based on social influence in smoking prevention and cessation programs, targeting especially such risk groups as those with low socioeconomic status as well as those with other unhealthy behaviours.

Dyslipidaemia, glucose intolerance and cardiovascular disease mortality and morbidity in Europeans and Asians

Dyslipidaemia, a major risk factor of cardiovascular disease (CVD), is prevalent not only in diabetic patients but also in individuals with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) or impaired fasting glucose (IFG). The aims of this study were: 1) to investigate lipid levels in relation to glucose in European (Study I) and Asian (Study II) populations without a prior history of diabetes; 2) to study the ethnic difference in lipid profiles controlling for glucose levels (Study III); 3) to estimate the relative risk for cardiovascular mortality (Study IV) and morbidity (Study V) associated with dyslipidaemia in individuals with different glucose tolerance status. Data of 15 European cohorts with 19 476 subjects (I and III) and 13 Asian cohorts with 19 763 individuals (II and III) from 21 countries aged 25-89 years, without a prior history of diabetes at enrollment, representing Asian Indian, Chinese, European, Japanese and Mauritian Indian, were compared. The lipid-CVD relationship was studied in 14 European cohorts of 17 763 men and women which provided with follow-up data on vital status, with 871 CVD deaths occurred during the average 10-year follow-up (IV). The impact of dyslipidaemia on incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) in persons with different glucose categories (V) was further evaluated in 6 European studies, with 9087 individuals free of CHD at baseline and 457 developed CHD during follow-up. Z-scores of each lipid component were used in the data analysis (I, II, IV and V) to reduce the differences in methodology between studies. Analyses of cardiovascular mortality and morbidity were performed using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis adjusting for potential confounding factors. Within each glucose category, fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels were correlated with increasing levels of triglycerides (TG), total cholesterol (TC), TC to high-density lipoprotein (HDL) ratio and non-HDL cholesterol (non-HDL-C) (p<0.05 in most of the ethnic groups) and inversely associated with HDL-C (p<0.05 in some, but not all, of the populations). The association of lipids with 2-h plasma glucose (2hPG) followed a similar pattern as that for the FPG, except the stronger association of HDL-C with 2hPG. Compared with Central & Northern (C & N) Europeans, multivariable adjusted odd ratios (95% CIs) for having low HDL-C were 4.74 (4.19-5.37), 5.05 (3.88-6.56), 3.07 (2.15-4.40) and 2.37 (1.67-3.35) in Asian Indian men but 0.12 (0.09-0.16), 0.07 (0.04-0.13), 0.11 (0.07-0.20) and 0.16 (0.08-0.32) in Chinese men who had normoglycaemia, prediabetes, undiagnosed and diagnosed diabetes, respectively. Similar results were obtained for women. The prevalence of low HDL-C remained higher in Asian Indians than in others even in individuals with LDL-C < 3 mmol/l. Dyslipidaemia was associated with increased CVD mortality or CHD incidence in individuals with isolated fasting hyperglycaemia or IFG, but not in those with isolated post-load hyperglycaemia or IGT. In conclusion, hyperglycaemia is associated with adverse lipid profiles in Europeans and Asians without a prior history of diabetes. There are distinct patterns of lipid profiles associated with ethnicity regardless of the glucose levels, suggesting that ethnic-specific strategies and guidelines on risk assessment and prevention of CVD are required. Dyslipidaemia predicts CVD in either diabetic or non-diabetic individuals defined based on the fasting glucose criteria, but not on the 2-hour criteria. The findings may imply considering different management strategies in people with fasting or post-load hyperglycaemia.

Prevention of type 2 diabetes with lifestyle intervention - emphasis on dietary composition and identification of high-risk individuals

Type 2 diabetes is an increasing, serious, and costly public health problem. The increase in the prevalence of the disease can mainly be attributed to changing lifestyles leading to physical inactivity, overweight, and obesity. These lifestyle-related risk factors offer also a possibility for preventive interventions. Until recently, proper evidence regarding the prevention of type 2 diabetes has been virtually missing. To be cost-effective, intensive interventions to prevent type 2 diabetes should be directed to people at an increased risk of the disease. The aim of this series of studies was to investigate whether type 2 diabetes can be prevented by lifestyle intervention in high-risk individuals, and to develop a practical method to identify individuals who are at high risk of type 2 diabetes and would benefit from such an intervention. To study the effect of lifestyle intervention on diabetes risk, we recruited 522 volunteer, middle-aged (aged 40 - 64 at baseline), overweight (body mass index > 25 kg/m2) men (n = 172) and women (n = 350) with impaired glucose tolerance to the Diabetes Prevention Study (DPS). The participants were randomly allocated either to the intensive lifestyle intervention group or the control group. The control group received general dietary and exercise advice at baseline, and had annual physician's examination. The participants in the intervention group received, in addition, individualised dietary counselling by a nutritionist. They were also offered circuit-type resistance training sessions and were advised to increase overall physical activity. The intervention goals were to reduce body weight (5% or more reduction from baseline weight), limit dietary fat (< 30% of total energy consumed) and saturated fat (< 10% of total energy consumed), and to increase dietary fibre intake (15 g / 1000 kcal or more) and physical activity (≥ 30 minutes/day). Diabetes status was assessed annually by a repeated 75 g oral glucose tolerance testing. First analysis on end-points was completed after a mean follow-up of 3.2 years, and the intervention phase was terminated after a mean duration of 3.9 years. After that, the study participants continued to visit the study clinics for the annual examinations, for a mean of 3 years. The intervention group showed significantly greater improvement in each intervention goal. After 1 and 3 years, mean weight reductions were 4.5 and 3.5 kg in the intervention group and 1.0 kg and 0.9 kg in the control group. Cardiovascular risk factors improved more in the intervention group. After a mean follow-up of 3.2 years, the risk of diabetes was reduced by 58% in the intervention group compared with the control group. The reduction in the incidence of diabetes was directly associated with achieved lifestyle goals. Furthermore, those who consumed moderate-fat, high-fibre diet achieved the largest weight reduction and, even after adjustment for weight reduction, the lowest diabetes risk during the intervention period. After discontinuation of the counselling, the differences in lifestyle variables between the groups still remained favourable for the intervention group. During the post-intervention follow-up period of 3 years, the risk of diabetes was still 36% lower among the former intervention group participants, compared with the former control group participants. To develop a simple screening tool to identify individuals who are at high risk of type 2 diabetes, follow-up data of two population-based cohorts of 35-64 year old men and women was used. The National FINRISK Study 1987 cohort (model development data) included 4435 subjects, with 182 new drug-treated cases of diabetes identified during ten years, and the FINRISK Study 1992 cohort (model validation data) included 4615 subjects, with 67 new cases of drug-treated diabetes during five years, ascertained using the Social Insurance Institution's Drug register. Baseline age, body mass index, waist circumference, history of antihypertensive drug treatment and high blood glucose, physical activity and daily consumption of fruits, berries or vegetables were selected into the risk score as categorical variables. In the 1987 cohort the optimal cut-off point of the risk score identified 78% of those who got diabetes during the follow-up (= sensitivity of the test) and 77% of those who remained free of diabetes (= specificity of the test). In the 1992 cohort the risk score performed equally well. The final Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) form includes, in addition to the predictors of the model, a question about family history of diabetes and the age category of over 64 years. When applied to the DPS population, the baseline FINDRISC value was associated with diabetes risk among the control group participants only, indicating that the intensive lifestyle intervention given to the intervention group participants abolished the diabetes risk associated with baseline risk factors. In conclusion, the intensive lifestyle intervention produced long-term beneficial changes in diet, physical activity, body weight, and cardiovascular risk factors, and reduced diabetes risk. Furthermore, the effects of the intervention were sustained after the intervention was discontinued. The FINDRISC proved to be a simple, fast, inexpensive, non-invasive, and reliable tool to identify individuals at high risk of type 2 diabetes. The use of FINDRISC to identify high-risk subjects, followed by lifestyle intervention, provides a feasible scheme in preventing type 2 diabetes, which could be implemented in the primary health care system.

Oral health, smoking and adolescence

The present cross-sectional study examined the effect of smoking on oral health in a birth cohort of 15 to 16-year-old Finnish adolescents. The hypothesis was that oral health parameters were poorer among smoking than non-smoking subjects and that a tobacco intervention program could be effective among the adolescents. The study was conducted in the Kotka Health Center, Kotka, Finland. Altogether 501 out of 545 subjects (15- to 16-year-old boys [n = 258] and girls [n = 243]) were clinically examined in 2004 and 2005. The sample frame was a birth cohort of all subjects in 1989 and 1990, living in Kotka. A structured questionnaire was also filled in by the participants to record their general health and health habits, such as smoking, tooth brushing, and medication used. The participants were classified into nonsmokers, current smokers, and former smokers. Subgingival pooled plaque samples were taken and stimulated salivary samples were also collected. The subjects were asked from which of seven professional groups (doctors, school nurses, dental nurses, general nurses, dentists, teachers and media professionals) they would prefer to receive information about tobacco. The two most popular groups they picked up were dentists and school nurses. Current smokers (n=127) were then randomly assigned into three groups: the dentist group (n =44), the school-nurse group (n =42), and the control group (n =39). The intervention was based on a national recommendation of evidence based guidelines by The Finnish Medical Society Duodecim ( 5A counseling system). Two months after the intervention, a second questionnaire was sent to the smokers in the intervention groups. Smoking cessation, smoking quantity per week, and self-rated addiction for smoking (SRA) were recorded. The results were analyzed using the R-statistical program. The results showed that 15% of the subjects had periodontitis. Smokers (25%) had more periodontitis than non-smokers (66%) (p < 0.001). Smoking boys (24%) also had more caries lesions than non-smokers (69%) (p < 0.001), and they brushed their teeth less frequently than non-smokers. Smoking significantly impaired periodontal health of the subjects, even when the confounding effects of plaque and tooth brushing were adjusted. Smoking pack-years, intensified the effects of smoking. Periodontal bacteria Prevotella nigrescens, Prevotella intermedia, Tannerella forsythia and Treponema denticola were more frequently detected among the smokers than non-smokers, especially among smoking girls. Smoking significantly decreased the values of both the salivary periodontal biomarkers MMP-8 (p=0.04) and PMN elastase (p=0.02) in boys. The effect was strengthened by pack years of smoking (MMP-8 p=0.04; elastase p0.01). Of those who participated in the intervention, 19 % quit smoking. The key factors associated with smoking cessation were best friend`s influence, nicotine dependence and diurnal type. When the best friend was not a smoker, the risk ratio (RR) of quit smoking after the intervention was 7.0 (Cl 95% 4.6 10.7). Of the diurnal types, the morning people seemed to be more likely to quit (RR 2.2 [Cl 95% 1.4 3.6]). Nicotine dependence also elicited an opposite effect: those who scored between 3 and 5 dependence scores were less likely to quit. In conclusion, smoking appears to be a major etiological risk factor for oral health. However, the early signs of periodontal disease were mild in the subjects studied. Based on the opinions of the adolescent s, dental professionals may have a key position in their smoking cessation. The harmful effects of smoking on oral health could be used in counselling. Best friend`s influence, nicotine dependence and diurnal type, all factors associated with smoking cessation, should be taken more carefully into account in the prevention programs for adolescents.

Candidate gene studies on cardiovascular traits

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are a major cause of death and disability in Western countries and a growing health problem in the developing world. The genetic component of both coronary heart disease (CHD) and ischemic stroke events has been established in twin studies, and the traits predisposing to CVD, such as hypertension, dyslipidemias, obesity, diabetes, and smoking behavior, are all partly hereditary. Better understanding of the pathophysiology of CVD-related traits could help to target disease prevention and clinical treatment to individuals at an especially high disease risk and provide novel pharmaceutical interventions. This thesis aimed to clarify the genetic background of CVD at a population level using large Nordic population cohorts and a candidate gene approach. The first study concentrated on the allelic diversity of the thrombomodulin (THBD) gene in two Finnish cohorts, FINRISK-92 and FINRISK-97. The results from this study implied that THBD variants do not substantially contribute to CVD risk. In the second study, three other candidate genes were added to the analyses. The study investigated the epistatic effects of coagulation factor V (F5), intercellular adhesion molecule -1 (ICAM1), protein C (PROC), and THBD in the same FINRISK cohorts. The results were encouraging; we were able to identify several single SNPs and SNP combinations associating with CVD and mortality. Interestingly, THBD variants appeared in the associating SNP combinations despite the negative results from Study I, suggesting that THBD contributes to CVD through gene-gene interactions. In the third study, upstream transcription factor -1 (USF1) was analyzed in a cohort of Swedish men. USF1 was associated with metabolic syndrome, characterized by accumulation of different CVD risk factors. A putative protective and a putative risk variant were identified. A direct association with CVD was not observed. The longitudinal nature of the study also clarified the effect of USF1 variants on CVD risk factors followed in four examinations throughout adulthood. The three studies provided valuable information on the study of complex traits, highlighting the use of large study samples, the importance of replication, and the full coverage of the major allelic variants of the target genes to assure reliable findings. Although the genetic basis of coronary heart disease and ischemic stroke remains unknown, single genetic findings may facilitate the recognition of high-risk subgroups.

Coffee and risk of type 2 diabetes

Type 2 diabetes is one of the diseases that largely determined by lifestyle factors. Coffee is one of the most consumed beverages in the world and recently released data suggest the effects of coffee consumption on type 2 diabetes. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the effects of habitual coffee consumption on various aspects of type 2 diabetes and its most common complications. This study is part of the national FINRISK studies. Baseline surveys were carried out between 1972 and 1997. The surveys covered two eastern regions in 1972 and 1977, but were expanded to include a third region in southwestern Finland in 1982, 1987, 1992, and 1997. The Helsinki capital area was included in the survey in 1992 and 1997 and the Oulu province, in northern Finland, in 1997. Each survey was drawn from an independent random sample of the national register of subjects aged 25-64. In 1997, an additional sample of subjects aged 65-74 was conducted. The blood pressure, weight, and height of subjects were measured. By using self-administered questionnaires data were collected on medical history, socioeconomic factors, physical activity, smoking habits, and alcohol, coffee, and tea consumption. Higher coffee consumption was associated with higher body mass index, occupational physical activity and cigarette smoking, and lower blood pressure, education level, leisure time physical activity, tea consumption and alcohol use. Age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure and current smoking were positively associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes, however, education, and occupational, commuting and leisure time physical activity were inversely associated. The significant inverse association between coffee consumption and the risk of type 2 diabetes was found in both sexes but the association was stronger in women. Coffee consumption was significantly and inversely associated with fasting glucose, 2-hour plasma glucose, fasting insulin, impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose regulation, and hyperinsulinemia among both men and women and with isolated impaired glucose tolerance among women. Serum gamma-glutamyltransferase modified the association between coffee consumption and incident diabetes. Among subjects with high serum -glutamyltransferase (>75th percentile), coffee consumption showed an inverse association for women, as well as men and women combined. An inverse association also occurred between coffee consumption and the risk of total, cardiovascular disease, and coronary heart disease mortality among patients with type 2 diabetes. The results of this study showed that habitual coffee consumption may be associated with a reduced risk of type 2 diabetes. Coffee consumption may have some effects on several markers of glycemia, and may lower the incident of type 2 diabetes in high normal serum -glutamyltransferase levels. Total, cardiovascular disease, and coronary heart disease mortality rate among subjects with type 2 diabetes may also be reduced by coffee consumption.

Trust, participation and health among ageing people : A cross-sectional cohort study of men and women born in 1926-30, 1936-40, and 1946-50 in the Lahti region, southern Finland

The purpose of the present study was to explore the associations between good self-rated health and economic and social factors in different regions among ageing people in the Päijät-Häme region in southern Finland. The data of this study were collected in 2002 as part of the research and development project Ikihyvä 2002 2012 (Good Ageing in Lahti region GOAL project). The baseline data set consisted of 2,815 participants born in 1926 30, 1936 40, and 1946 50. The response rate was 66 %. According to the previous studies, trust in other people and social participation as the main aspects of social capital are associated with self-rated health. In addition, socioeconomic position (SEP) and self-rated health are associated, but all SEP indicators do not have identical associations with health. However, there is a lack of knowledge of the health associations and regional differences with these factors, especially among ageing people. Regarding these questions, the present study gives new information. According to the results of this study, self-perceived adequacy of income was significantly associated with good self-rated health, especially in the urban areas. Similar associations were found in the rural areas, though education was also considered an important factor. Adequacy of income was an even stronger predictor of good health than the actual income. Women had better self-rated health than men only in the urban areas. The youngest respondents had quite equally better self-rated health than the others. Social participation and access to help when needed were associated with good self-rated health, especially in the urban area and the sparsely populated rural areas. The result was comparable in the rural population centres. The correlation of trust with self-rated health was significant in the urban area. High social capital was associated with good self-rated health in the urban area. The association was quite similar in the other areas, though it was statistically insignificant. High social capital consisted of co-existent high social participation and high trust. The association of traditionalism (low participation and high trust) with self-rated health was also substantial in the urban area. The associations of self-rated health with low social capital (low participation and low trust) and the miniaturisation of community (high participation and low trust) were less significant. From the forms of single participation, going to art exhibitions, theatre, movies, and concerts among women, and studying and self-development among men were positively related to self-rated health. Unexpectedly, among women, active participation in religious events and voluntary work was negatively associated with self-rated health. This may indicate a coping method with ill-health. As a whole, only minor variations in self-rated health were found between the areas. However, the significance of the factors associated with self-rated health varied according to the areas. Economic factors, especially self-perceived adequacy of income was strongly associated with good self-rated health. Also when adjusting for economic and several other background factors social factors (particularly high social capital, social participation, and access to help when needed) were associated with self-rated health. Thus, economic and social factors have a significant relation with the health of the ageing, and improving these factors may have favourable effects on health among ageing people.

Anthropometric measures of obesity-their association with type 2 diabetes and hypertension across ethnic groups

Clinical trials have shown that weight reduction with lifestyles can delay or prevent diabetes and reduce blood pressure. An appropriate definition of obesity using anthropometric measures is useful in predicting diabetes and hypertension at the population level. However, there is debate on which of the measures of obesity is best or most strongly associated with diabetes and hypertension and on what are the optimal cut-off values for body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) in this regard. The aims of the study were 1) to compare the strength of the association for undiagnosed or newly diagnosed diabetes (or hypertension) with anthropometric measures of obesity in people of Asian origin, 2) to detect ethnic differences in the association of undiagnosed diabetes with obesity, 3) to identify ethnic- and sex-specific change point values of BMI and WC for changes in the prevalence of diabetes and 4) to evaluate the ethnic-specific WC cutoff values proposed by the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) in 2005 for central obesity. The study population comprised 28 435 men and 35 198 women, ≥ 25 years of age, from 39 cohorts participating in the DECODA and DECODE studies, including 5 Asian Indian (n = 13 537), 3 Mauritian Indian (n = 4505) and Mauritian Creole (n = 1075), 8 Chinese (n =10 801), 1 Filipino (n = 3841), 7 Japanese (n = 7934), 1 Mongolian (n = 1991), and 14 European (n = 20 979) studies. The prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and central obesity was estimated, using descriptive statistics, and the differences were determined with the χ2 test. The odds ratios (ORs) or  coefficients (from the logistic model) and hazard ratios (HRs, from the Cox model to interval censored data) for BMI, WC, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-to-stature ratio (WSR) were estimated for diabetes and hypertension. The differences between BMI and WC, WHR or WSR were compared, applying paired homogeneity tests (Wald statistics with 1 df). Hierarchical three-level Bayesian change point analysis, adjusting for age, was applied to identify the most likely cut-off/change point values for BMI and WC in association with previously undiagnosed diabetes. The ORs for diabetes in men (women) with BMI, WC, WHR and WSR were 1.52 (1.59), 1.54 (1.70), 1.53 (1.50) and 1.62 (1.70), respectively and the corresponding ORs for hypertension were 1.68 (1.55), 1.66 (1.51), 1.45 (1.28) and 1.63 (1.50). For diabetes the OR for BMI did not differ from that for WC or WHR, but was lower than that for WSR (p = 0.001) in men while in women the ORs were higher for WC and WSR than for BMI (both p < 0.05). Hypertension was more strongly associated with BMI than with WHR in men (p < 0.001) and most strongly with BMI than with WHR (p < 0.001), WSR (p < 0.01) and WC (p < 0.05) in women. The HRs for incidence of diabetes and hypertension did not differ between BMI and the other three central obesity measures in Mauritian Indians and Mauritian Creoles during follow-ups of 5, 6 and 11 years. The prevalence of diabetes was highest in Asian Indians, lowest in Europeans and intermediate in others, given the same BMI or WC category. The  coefficients for diabetes in BMI (kg/m2) were (men/women): 0.34/0.28, 0.41/0.43, 0.42/0.61, 0.36/0.59 and 0.33/0.49 for Asian Indian, Chinese, Japanese, Mauritian Indian and European (overall homogeneity test: p > 0.05 in men and p < 0.001 in women). Similar results were obtained in WC (cm). Asian Indian women had lower  coefficients than women of other ethnicities. The change points for BMI were 29.5, 25.6, 24.0, 24.0 and 21.5 in men and 29.4, 25.2, 24.9, 25.3 and 22.5 (kg/m2) in women of European, Chinese, Mauritian Indian, Japanese, and Asian Indian descent. The change points for WC were 100, 85, 79 and 82 cm in men and 91, 82, 82 and 76 cm in women of European, Chinese, Mauritian Indian, and Asian Indian. The prevalence of central obesity using the 2005 IDF definition was higher in Japanese men but lower in Japanese women than in their Asian counterparts. The prevalence of central obesity was 52 times higher in Japanese men but 0.8 times lower in Japanese women compared to the National Cholesterol Education Programme definition. The findings suggest that both BMI and WC predicted diabetes and hypertension equally well in all ethnic groups. At the same BMI or WC level, the prevalence of diabetes was highest in Asian Indians, lowest in Europeans and intermediate in others. Ethnic- and sex-specific change points of BMI and WC should be considered in setting diagnostic criteria for obesity to detect undiagnosed or newly diagnosed diabetes.

Impact of Tobacco Control Policy on Smoking and Exposure to Environmental Tobacco Smoke

The aim of the study was to evaluate the impact of the Finnish tobacco control measures for reduction of smoking. First, the trends and patterns in ever smoking among adult Finns in 1978 2001 as well as the associations of trends with the Tobacco Control Act in 1976 were examined. Secondly, the impact of the 1976 TCA on the proportion of ever daily smokers in different socioeconomic groups was studied. Thirdly, the impact of the 1995 TCAA on recent trends in the prevalence of daily smoking was evaluated by gender and employment status. Fourthly, the trends of exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) at workplaces and homes were investigated. The study is based on data of the Health Behaviour among the Finnish Adult Population surveys. Among Finnish men smoking initiation declined from earlier to later cohorts, whereas among women it increased in successive birth cohorts born before 1956. The lasting differences between birth cohorts as regards ever daily smoking reflected well the impact of measures to reduce smoking in Finland in 1976. Smoking initiation in the birth cohorts (born in 1961 or later) which were in critical age as regards the risk of smoking initiation when the TCA came into force was less common than could be expected according to the trends seen in the earlier birth cohorts. Marked socioeconomic differences were found in smoking in the different birth cohorts. Smoking was more prevalent in the lower socioeconomic groups than in the higher ones, and the differences were larger in the later birth cohorts compared to the earlier ones. The differences between the birth cohorts in ever daily smoking were compatible with the hypothetical impact of the TCA in almost all socioeconomic groups, except farmers. Among men the 1976 TCA appears to have had the greatest impact on white-collar employees. Among women the effect of the act was highly significant in all socioeconomic groups. However, female smoking prevalence continues to show wide socioeconomic disparities. Daily smoking decreased among employees after the 1995 TCAA, supporting the hypothesis of the lowering impact of the amendment on daily smoking due to increased smoking cessation. No parallel change in daily smoking was found in the population without direct expose to ETS legislation (farmers, students, housewives, pensioners or unemployed). Exposure to ETS decreased markedly among non-smokers at work after the 1995 TCAA. The 1976 TCA and the 1995 TCAA were useful in controlling smoking initiation and cessation, but their impact was not equal across the population groups. The results of this study strongly suggested that tobacco control policies markedly contribute to the decrease in smoking and in exposure to environmental tobacco smoke.

Inpatient hospital care and its costs among type 1 diabetic patients in Finland : a nationwide longitudinal study

Background. In Finland, the incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) is the highest in the world, and it continues to increase steadily. No effective preventative interventions exist either for individuals at high risk or for the population as a whole. In addition to problems with daily lifelong insulin replacement therapy, T1DM patients with long-lasting disease suffer from various diabetes related complications. The complications can lead to severe impairments and reductions in functional capacity and quality of life and in the worst case they can be fatal. Longitudinal studies on the costs of T1DM are extremely rare, especially in Finland. Typically, in these studies, distinctions between the various types of diabetes have not been made, and costs have not been calculated separately for the sexes. Aims. The aim of this study was to describe inpatient hospital care and costs of inpatient care in a cohort of 5,166 T1DM patients by sex during 1973-1998 in Finland. Inpatient care and costs of care due to T1DM without complications, due to T1DM with complications and due to other causes were calculated separately. Material and Methods. The study population consisted of all Finnish T1DM patients diagnosed before the age of 18 years between January 1st in 1965 and December 31st in 1979 and derived from the Finnish population based T1DM register (N=5,120 in 1979 and N=4,701 in 1997). Data on hospitalisations were obtained from the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register. Results. In the early stages of T1DM, the majority of the use of inpatient care was due to the treatment of T1DM without complications. There were enormous increases in the use of inpatient care for certain complications when T1DM lasted longer (from 9.5 years to 16.5 years). For women, the yearly number of bed-days for renal complications increased 4.8-fold, for peripheral vascular disease 4.3-fold and for ophthalmic complications 2.5-fold. For men, the corresponding increases were as follows: 5-fold, 6.9-fold and 2.5-fold. The yearly bed-days for glaucoma increased 8-fold, nephropathy 7-fold and microangiopathy 6-fold in the total population. During these 7 years, the yearly numbers of bed-days for T1DM without complications dropped dramatically. The length of stay in inpatient care decreased notably, but hospital visits became more frequent when the length of duration of T1DM increased from 9.5 years to 16.5 years. The costs of treatments due to complications increased when T1DM lasted longer. Costs due to inpatient care of complications in the cohort 2.5-folded as duration of T1DM increased from 9.5 years to 16.5 years, while the total costs of inpatient care in the cohort dropped by 22% due to an 80% decrease in the costs of care of T1DM without complications. Treating complications of female patients was more expensive than treating complications of men when T1DM had lasted 9.5 years; the mean annual costs for inpatient care of a female diabetic (any cause) were 1,642 , and the yearly costs of care of complications were 237 . The corresponding yearly mean costs for a male patient were 1,198 and 167 . Treating complications of female patients was more expensive than that of male patients also when the duration of diabetes was 16.5 years, although the difference in average annual costs between sexes was somewhat smaller. Conclusions. In the early phases of T1DM, the treatment of T1DM without complications causes a considerable amount of hospital bed-days. The use of inpatient care due to complications of T1DM strongly increases with ageing of patients. The economic burden of inpatient care of T1DM is substantial.

Type 1 and type 2 diabetes among young adults in Finland : Incidence and perinatal exposures

This study aimed to examine the incidence of young adult-onset T1DM and T2DM among Finns, and to explore the possible risk factors for young adult-onset T1DM and T2DM that occur during the perinatal period and childhood. In the studies I-II, the incidence of diabetes was examined among 15-39-year-old Finns during the years 1992-2001. Information on the new diagnoses of diabetes was collected from four sources: standardized national reports filled in by diabetes nurses, the Hospital Discharge Register, the Drug Reimbursement Register, and the Drug Prescription Register. The type of diabetes was assigned using information obtained from these four data sources. The incidence of T1DM was 18 per 100,000/year, and there was a clear male predominance in the incidence of T1DM. The incidence of T1DM increased on average 3.9% per year during 1992-2001. The incidence of T2DM was 13 per 100,000/year, and it displayed an increase of 4.3% per year. In the studies III-V, the effects of perinatal exposures and childhood growth on the risk for young adult-onset T1DM and T2DM were explored in a case-control setting. Individuals diagnosed with T1DM (n=1,388) and T2DM (n=1,121) during the period 1992-1996 were chosen as the diabetes cases for the study, and two controls were chosen for each case from the National Population Register. Data on the study subjects parents and siblings was obtained from the National Population Register. The study subjects original birth records and child welfare clinic records were traced nationwide. The risk for young adult-onset T2DM was the lowest among the offspring of mothers aged about 30 years, whereas the risk for T2DM increased towards younger and older maternal ages. Birth orders second to fourth were found protective of T2DM. In addition, the risk for T2DM was observed to decrease with increasing birth weight until 4.2 kg, after which the risk began to increase. A high body mass index (BMI) at the BMI rebound between ages 3-11 years substantially increased the risk for T2DM, and the excess weight gain in individuals diagnosed with T2DM began in early childhood. Maternal age, birth order, or body size at birth had no effect on the risk for young adult-onset T1DM. Instead, individuals with T1DM were observed to have a higher maximum BMI before the age of 3 than their control subjects. In conclusion, the increasing trend in the development of both T1DM and T2DM among young Finnish adults is alarming. The high risk for T1DM among the Finnish population extends to at least 40 years of age, and at least 200-300 young Finnish adults are diagnosed with T2DM every year. Growth during the fetal period and childhood notably affects the risk for T2DM. T2DM prevention should also target childhood obesity. Rapid growth during the first years of life may be a risk factor for late-onset T1DM.

On probability-based inference under data missing by design

Whether a statistician wants to complement a probability model for observed data with a prior distribution and carry out fully probabilistic inference, or base the inference only on the likelihood function, may be a fundamental question in theory, but in practice it may well be of less importance if the likelihood contains much more information than the prior. Maximum likelihood inference can be justified as a Gaussian approximation at the posterior mode, using flat priors. However, in situations where parametric assumptions in standard statistical models would be too rigid, more flexible model formulation, combined with fully probabilistic inference, can be achieved using hierarchical Bayesian parametrization. This work includes five articles, all of which apply probability modeling under various problems involving incomplete observation. Three of the papers apply maximum likelihood estimation and two of them hierarchical Bayesian modeling. Because maximum likelihood may be presented as a special case of Bayesian inference, but not the other way round, in the introductory part of this work we present a framework for probability-based inference using only Bayesian concepts. We also re-derive some results presented in the original articles using the toolbox equipped herein, to show that they are also justifiable under this more general framework. Here the assumption of exchangeability and de Finetti's representation theorem are applied repeatedly for justifying the use of standard parametric probability models with conditionally independent likelihood contributions. It is argued that this same reasoning can be applied also under sampling from a finite population. The main emphasis here is in probability-based inference under incomplete observation due to study design. This is illustrated using a generic two-phase cohort sampling design as an example. The alternative approaches presented for analysis of such a design are full likelihood, which utilizes all observed information, and conditional likelihood, which is restricted to a completely observed set, conditioning on the rule that generated that set. Conditional likelihood inference is also applied for a joint analysis of prevalence and incidence data, a situation subject to both left censoring and left truncation. Other topics covered are model uncertainty and causal inference using posterior predictive distributions. We formulate a non-parametric monotonic regression model for one or more covariates and a Bayesian estimation procedure, and apply the model in the context of optimal sequential treatment regimes, demonstrating that inference based on posterior predictive distributions is feasible also in this case.

Cereal alkylresorcinols as dietary biomarkers-absorption and occurrence in biological membranes

Several studies link the consumption of whole-grain products to a lowered risk of chronic diseases, such as certain types of cancer, type II diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases. However, the final conclusions of the exact protective mechanisms remain unclear, partly due to a lack of a suitable biomarker for the whole-grain cereals intake. Alkylresorcinols (AR) are phenolic lipids abundant in the outer parts of wheat and rye grains usually with homologues of C15:0- C25:0 alkyl chains, and are suggested to function as whole-grain biomarkers. Mammalian lignan enterolactone has also previously been studied as a potential whole-grain biomarker. In the present work a quantified gas chromatography-mass spectrometry method for the analysis of AR in plasma, erythrocytes, and lipoproteins was developed. The method was used to determine human and pig plasma AR concentrations after the intake of whole-grain wheat and rye products compared to low-fibre wheat bread diets to assess the usability of AR as biomarkers of whole-grain intake. AR plasma concentrations were compared to serum ENL concentrations. AR absorption and elimination kinetics were investigated in a pig model. AR occurrence in human erythrocyte membranes and plasma lipoproteins were determined, and the distribution of AR in blood was evaluated. Plasma AR seem to be absorbed via the lymphatic system from the small intestine, like many other lipophilic compounds. Their apparent elimination half-life is relatively short and is similar to that of tocopherols, which have a similar chemical structure. Plasma AR concentrations increased significantly after a one- to eight-week intake of whole-grain wheat and further on with whole-grain rye bread. The concentrations were also higher after habitual Finnish diet compared to diet with low-fibre bread. Inter-individual variation after a one-week intake of the same amount of bread was high, but the mean plasma AR concentrations increased with increasing AR intake. AR are incorporated into erythrocyte membranes and plasma lipoproteins, and VLDL and HDL were the main AR carriers in human plasma. Based on these studies, plasma AR could function as specific biomarkers of dietary whole-grain products. AR are exclusively found in whole-grains and are more suitable as specific biomarkers of whole-grain intake than previously investigated mammalian lignan enterolactone, that is formed from several plants other than cereals in the diet. Plasma AR C17:0/C21:0 -ratio could distinguish whether whole-grain products in the diet are mainly wheat or rye. AR could be used in epidemiological studies to determine whole-grain intake and to better assess the role of whole-grains in disease prevention.

Depression and Cognition in Type 2 Diabetes from a Life Course Perspective

Background: Type 2 diabetes is linked to several complications which add to both physical and mental distress. Depression is a common co-morbidity of diabetes which can occur both as a cause and a consequence of type 2 diabetes. Depression has been shown to correlate with glucose regulation and treating depression might prove beneficial for glucose regulation as well as for mental well being. Another complication which might affect diabetes management is cognitive decline. Several risk factors and complications of diabetes might modify the risk for developing cognitive impairment, which is increased 1.5 times among subjects with type 2 diabetes. Type 2 diabetes, depression and impaired cognitive performance have all been linked to low birth weight. This thesis aimed to explore the effects and interactions of birth weight, depression and cognitive ability in relation to type 2 diabetes from a life course perspective. Subjects and methods: Studies I, II and V were part of the Helsinki Birth Cohort Study. 2003 subjects participated in an extensive clinical examination at an average age of 61 years. A standard glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was performed and depressive symptoms were assessed using the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI). In addition data was obtained from child welfare clinics and national registers. A subset of the cohort (n=1247) also performed a test on cognitive performance (CogState ®) at the average age of 64. Studies III and IV were randomised clinical trials where mildly depressed diabetic subjects were treated with paroxetine or placebo and the effect on metabolic parameters and quality of life was assessed. The first trial included 14 women and lasted 10 weeks, while the second trial included 43 subjects, both men and women, and lasted 6 months. Results: Type 2 diabetes was positively associated with the occurrence of depressive symptoms. Among diabetic subjects 23.6% had depressive symptoms, compared to 16.7% of subjects with normal glucose tolerance (OR = 1.77, p<0.001). Formal mediation analysis revealed that cardiovascular disease (CVD) is likely to act as a mediator in the association. Furthermore, low birth weight was found to modify the association between type 2 diabetes, CVD and depression. The association between BDI score and having type 2 diabetes or CVD was twice as strong in the subgroup with low birth weight (≤ 2500g) compared with the group with birth weight > 2500g (p for interaction 0.058). In the six months long randomised clinical trial (study IV) paroxetine had a transient beneficial effect on glycosylated haemoglobin A1c (GHbA1c) and quality of life when compared to placebo after three months of treatment. In study V we found that subjects with known diabetes had a consistently poorer level of cognitive performance than subjects with normal glucose tolerance in most of the tested cognitive domains. This effect was further amplified among those born with a small birth weight (p for interaction 0.002). Conclusions: Type 2 diabetes is associated with a higher occurrence of depressive symptoms compared to subjects with normal glucose tolerance. This association is especially strong among subjects with CVD and those born with a low birth weight. Treating depressed diabetic subjects with paroxetine has no long term effect on glucose regulation. Physicians should be aware of depression as an important co-morbidity of type 2 diabetes. Both depression and the cognitive decline often seen among diabetic subjects are increased if the subject is born with a low birth weight. Physicians should recognise low birth weight as an additional risk factor and modifier of diabetic complications.