Bayesian statistical analysis of bacterial diversity

Bacteria play an important role in many ecological systems. The molecular characterization of bacteria using either cultivation-dependent or cultivation-independent methods reveals the large scale of bacterial diversity in natural communities, and the vastness of subpopulations within a species or genus. Understanding how bacterial diversity varies across different environments and also within populations should provide insights into many important questions of bacterial evolution and population dynamics. This thesis presents novel statistical methods for analyzing bacterial diversity using widely employed molecular fingerprinting techniques. The first objective of this thesis was to develop Bayesian clustering models to identify bacterial population structures. Bacterial isolates were identified using multilous sequence typing (MLST), and Bayesian clustering models were used to explore the evolutionary relationships among isolates. Our method involves the inference of genetic population structures via an unsupervised clustering framework where the dependence between loci is represented using graphical models. The population dynamics that generate such a population stratification were investigated using a stochastic model, in which homologous recombination between subpopulations can be quantified within a gene flow network. The second part of the thesis focuses on cluster analysis of community compositional data produced by two different cultivation-independent analyses: terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP) analysis, and fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) analysis. The cluster analysis aims to group bacterial communities that are similar in composition, which is an important step for understanding the overall influences of environmental and ecological perturbations on bacterial diversity. A common feature of T-RFLP and FAME data is zero-inflation, which indicates that the observation of a zero value is much more frequent than would be expected, for example, from a Poisson distribution in the discrete case, or a Gaussian distribution in the continuous case. We provided two strategies for modeling zero-inflation in the clustering framework, which were validated by both synthetic and empirical complex data sets. We show in the thesis that our model that takes into account dependencies between loci in MLST data can produce better clustering results than those methods which assume independent loci. Furthermore, computer algorithms that are efficient in analyzing large scale data were adopted for meeting the increasing computational need. Our method that detects homologous recombination in subpopulations may provide a theoretical criterion for defining bacterial species. The clustering of bacterial community data include T-RFLP and FAME provides an initial effort for discovering the evolutionary dynamics that structure and maintain bacterial diversity in the natural environment.

Breath Testing by Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy for Solvent Intoxication Diagnostics

Technical or contaminated ethanol products are sometimes ingested either accidentally or on purpose. Typical misused products are black-market liquor and automotive products, e.g., windshield washer fluids. In addition to less toxic solvents, these liquids may contain the deadly methanol. Symptoms of even lethal solvent poisoning are often non-specific at the early stage. The present series of studies was carried out to develop a method for solvent intoxication breath diagnostics to speed up the diagnosis procedure conventionally based on blood tests. Especially in the case of methanol ingestion, the analysis method should be sufficiently sensitive and accurate to determine the presence of even small amounts of methanol from the mixture of ethanol and other less-toxic components. In addition to the studies on the FT-IR method, the Dräger 7110 evidential breath analyzer was examined to determine its ability to reveal a coexisting toxic solvent. An industrial Fourier transform infrared analyzer was modified for breath testing. The sample cell fittings were widened and the cell size reduced in order to get an alveolar sample directly from a single exhalation. The performance and the feasibility of the Gasmet FT-IR analyzer were tested in clinical settings and in the laboratory. Actual human breath screening studies were carried out with healthy volunteers, inebriated homeless men, emergency room patients and methanol-intoxicated patients. A number of the breath analysis results were compared to blood test results in order to approximate the blood-breath relationship. In the laboratory experiments, the analytical performance of the Gasmet FT-IR analyzer and Dräger 7110 evidential breath analyzer was evaluated by means of artificial samples resembling exhaled breath. The investigations demonstrated that a successful breath ethanol analysis by Dräger 7110 evidential breath analyzer could exclude any significant methanol intoxication. In contrast, the device did not detect very high levels of acetone, 1-propanol and 2-propanol in simulated breath. The Dräger 7110 evidential breath ethanol analyzer was not equipped to recognize the interfering component. According to the studies the Gasmet FT-IR analyzer was adequately sensitive, selective and accurate for solvent intoxication diagnostics. In addition to diagnostics, the fast breath solvent analysis proved feasible for controlling the ethanol and methanol concentration during haemodialysis treatment. Because of the simplicity of the sampling and analysis procedure, non-laboratory personnel, such as police officers or social workers, could also operate the analyzer for screening purposes.

Categorical Meteorological Products: Evaluation and Analysis

In meteorology, observations and forecasts of a wide range of phenomena for example, snow, clouds, hail, fog, and tornados can be categorical, that is, they can only have discrete values (e.g., "snow" and "no snow"). Concentrating on satellite-based snow and cloud analyses, this thesis explores methods that have been developed for evaluation of categorical products and analyses. Different algorithms for satellite products generate different results; sometimes the differences are subtle, sometimes all too visible. In addition to differences between algorithms, the satellite products are influenced by physical processes and conditions, such as diurnal and seasonal variation in solar radiation, topography, and land use. The analysis of satellite-based snow cover analyses from NOAA, NASA, and EUMETSAT, and snow analyses for numerical weather prediction models from FMI and ECMWF was complicated by the fact that we did not have the true knowledge of snow extent, and we were forced simply to measure the agreement between different products. The Sammon mapping, a multidimensional scaling method, was then used to visualize the differences between different products. The trustworthiness of the results for cloud analyses [EUMETSAT Meteorological Products Extraction Facility cloud mask (MPEF), together with the Nowcasting Satellite Application Facility (SAFNWC) cloud masks provided by Météo-France (SAFNWC/MSG) and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SAFNWC/PPS)] compared with ceilometers of the Helsinki Testbed was estimated by constructing confidence intervals (CIs). Bootstrapping, a statistical resampling method, was used to construct CIs, especially in the presence of spatial and temporal correlation. The reference data for validation are constantly in short supply. In general, the needs of a particular project drive the requirements for evaluation, for example, for the accuracy and the timeliness of the particular data and methods. In this vein, we discuss tentatively how data provided by general public, e.g., photos shared on the Internet photo-sharing service Flickr, can be used as a new source for validation. Results show that they are of reasonable quality and their use for case studies can be warmly recommended. Last, the use of cluster analysis on meteorological in-situ measurements was explored. The Autoclass algorithm was used to construct compact representations of synoptic conditions of fog at Finnish airports.