Valuation of reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland : Choice experiment with attention to heterogeneous and discontinuous preferences and respondent uncertainty

Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea is a serious problem. This thesis estimates the benefit to Finns from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland, the most eutrophied part of the Baltic Sea, by applying the choice experiment method, which belongs to the family of stated preference methods. Because stated preference methods have been subject to criticism, e.g., due to their hypothetical survey context, this thesis contributes to the discussion by studying two anomalies that may lead to biased welfare estimates: respondent uncertainty and preference discontinuity. The former refers to the difficulty of stating one s preferences for an environmental good in a hypothetical context. The latter implies a departure from the continuity assumption of conventional consumer theory, which forms the basis for the method and the analysis. In the three essays of the thesis, discrete choice data are analyzed with the multinomial logit and mixed logit models. On average, Finns are willing to contribute to the water quality improvement. The probability for willingness increases with residential or recreational contact with the gulf, higher than average income, younger than average age, and the absence of dependent children in the household. On average, for Finns the relatively most important characteristic of water quality is water clarity followed by the desire for fewer occurrences of blue-green algae. For future nutrient reduction scenarios, the annual mean household willingness to pay estimates range from 271 to 448 and the aggregate welfare estimates for Finns range from 28 billion to 54 billion euros, depending on the model and the intensity of the reduction. Out of the respondents (N=726), 72.1% state in a follow-up question that they are either Certain or Quite certain about their answer when choosing the preferred alternative in the experiment. Based on the analysis of other follow-up questions and another sample (N=307), 10.4% of the respondents are identified as potentially having discontinuous preferences. In relation to both anomalies, the respondent- and questionnaire-specific variables are found among the underlying causes and a departure from standard analysis may improve the model fit and the efficiency of estimates, depending on the chosen modeling approach. The introduction of uncertainty about the future state of the Gulf increases the acceptance of the valuation scenario which may indicate an increased credibility of a proposed scenario. In conclusion, modeling preference heterogeneity is an essential part of the analysis of discrete choice data. The results regarding uncertainty in stating one s preferences and non-standard choice behavior are promising: accounting for these anomalies in the analysis may improve the precision of the estimates of benefit from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland.

Precipitation-induced runoff and leaching from milled peat mining mires by peat types : a comparative method for estimating the loading of water bodies during peat pruduction

Precipitation-induced runoff and leaching from milled peat mining mires by peat types: a comparative method for estimating the loading of water bodies during peat production. This research project in environmental geology has arisen out of an observed need to be able to predict more accurately the loading of watercourses with detrimental organic substances and nutrients from already existing and planned peat production areas, since the authorities capacity for insisting on such predictions covering the whole duration of peat production in connection with evaluations of environmental impact is at present highly limited. National and international decisions regarding monitoring of the condition of watercourses and their improvement and restoration require more sophisticated evaluation methods in order to be able to forecast watercourse loading and its environmental impacts at the stage of land-use planning and preparations for peat production.The present project thus set out from the premise that it would be possible on the basis of existing mire and peat data properties to construct estimates for the typical loading from production mires over the whole duration of their exploitation. Finland has some 10 million hectares of peatland, accounting for almost a third of its total area. Macroclimatic conditions have varied in the course of the Holocene growth and development of this peatland, and with them the habitats of the peat-forming plants. Temperatures and moisture conditions have played a significant role in determining the dominant species of mire plants growing there at any particular time, the resulting mire types and the accumulation and deposition of plant remains to form the peat. The above climatic, environmental and mire development factors, together with ditching, have contributed, and continue to contribute, to the existence of peat horizons that differ in their physical and chemical properties, leading to differences in material transport between peatlands in a natural state and mires that have been ditched or prepared for forestry and peat production. Watercourse loading from the ditching of mires or their use for peat production can have detrimental effects on river and lake environments and their recreational use, especially where oxygen-consuming organic solids and soluble organic substances and nutrients are concerned. It has not previously been possible, however, to estimate in advance the watercourse loading likely to arise from ditching and peat production on the basis of the characteristics of the peat in a mire, although earlier observations have indicated that watercourse loading from peat production can vary greatly and it has been suggested that differences in peat properties may be of significance in this. Sprinkling is used here in combination with simulations of conditions in a milled peat production area to determine the influence of the physical and chemical properties of milled peats in production mires on surface runoff into the drainage ditches and the concentrations of material in the runoff water. Sprinkling and extraction experiments were carried out on 25 samples of milled Carex (C) and Sphagnum (S) peat of humification grades H 2.5 8.5 with moisture content in the range 23.4 89% on commencement of the first sprinkling, which was followed by a second sprinkling 24 hours later. The water retention capacity of the peat was best, and surface runoff lowest, with Sphagnum and Carex peat samples of humification grades H 2.5 6 in the moisture content class 56 75%. On account of the hydrophobicity of dry peat, runoff increased in a fairly regular manner with drying of the sample from 55% to 24 30%. Runoff from the samples with an original moisture content over 55% increased by 63% in the second round of sprinkling relative to the first, as they had practically reached saturation point on the first occasion, while those with an original moisture content below 55% retained their high runoff in the second round, due to continued hydrophobicity. The well-humified samples (H 6.5 8.5) with a moisture content over 80% showed a low water retention capacity and high runoff in both rounds of sprinkling. Loading of the runoff water with suspended solids, total phosphorus and total nitrogen, and also the chemical oxygen demand (CODMn O2), varied greatly in the sprinkling experiment, depending on the peat type and degree of humification, but concentrations of the same substances in the two sprinklings were closely or moderately closely correlated and these correlations were significant. The concentrations of suspended solids in the runoff water observed in the simulations of a peat production area and the direct surface runoff from it into the drainage ditch system in response to rain (sprinkling intensity 1.27 mm/min) varied c. 60-fold between the degrees of humification in the case of the Carex peats and c. 150-fold for the Sphagnum peats, while chemical oxygen demand varied c. 30-fold and c. 50-fold, respectively, total phosphorus c. 60-fold and c. 66-fold, total nitrogen c. 65-fold and c. 195-fold and ammonium nitrogen c. 90-fold and c. 30-fold. The increases in concentrations in the runoff water were very closely correlated with increases in humification of the peat. The correlations of the concentrations measured in extraction experiments (48 h) with peat type and degree of humification corresponded to those observed in the sprinkler experiments. The resulting figures for the surface runoff from a peat production area into the drainage ditches simulated by means of sprinkling and material concentrations in the runoff water were combined with statistics on the mean extent of daily rainfall (0 67 mm) during the frost-free period of the year (May October) over an observation period of 30 years to yield typical annual loading figures (kg/ha) for suspended solids (SS), chemical oxygen demand of organic matter (CODmn O2), total phosphorus (tot. P) and total nitrogen (tot. N) entering the ditches with respect to milled Carex (C) and Sphagnum (S) peats of humification grades H 2.5 8.5. In order to calculate the loading of drainage ditches from a milled peat production mire with the aid of these annual comparative values (in kg/ha), information is required on the properties of the intended production mire and its peat. Once data are available on the area of the mire, its peat depth, peat types and their degrees of humification, dry matter content, calorific value and corresponding energy content, it is possible to produce mutually comparable estimates for individual mires with respect to the annual loading of the drainage ditch system and the surrounding watercourse for the whole service life of the production area, the duration of this service life, determinations of energy content and the amount of loading per unit of energy generated (kg/MWh). In the 8 mires in the Köyhäjoki basin, Central Ostrobothnia, taken as an example, the loading of suspended solids (SS) in the drainage ditch networks calculated on the basis of the typical values obtained here and existing mire and peat data and expressed per unit of energy generated varied between the mires and horizons in the range 0.9 16.5 kg/MWh. One of the aims of this work was to develop means of making better use of existing mire and peat data and the results of corings and other field investigations. In this respect combination of the typical loading values (kg/ha) obtained here for S, SC, CS and C peats and the various degrees of humification (H 2.5 8.5) with the above mire and peat data by means of a computer program for the acquisition and handling of such data would enable all the information currently available and that deposited in the system in the future to be used for defining watercourse loading estimates for mires and comparing them with the corresponding estimates of energy content. The intention behind this work has been to respond to the challenge facing the energy generation industry to find larger peat production areas that exert less loading on the environment and to that facing the environmental authorities to improve the means available for estimating watercourse loading from peat production and its environmental impacts in advance. The results conform well to the initial hypothesis and to the goals laid down for the research and should enable watercourse loading from existing and planned peat production to be evaluated better in the future and the resulting impacts to be taken into account when planning land use and energy generation. The advance loading information available in this way would be of value in the selection of individual peat production areas, the planning of their exploitation, the introduction of water protection measures and the planning of loading inspections, in order to achieve controlled peat production that pays due attention to environmental considerations.

Observations of production and transport of NOx formed by energetic particle precipitation in the polar night atmosphere

This work is focused on the effects of energetic particle precipitation of solar or magnetospheric origin on the polar middle atmosphere. The energetic charged particles have access to the atmosphere in the polar areas, where they are guided by the Earth's magnetic field. The particles penetrate down to 20-100 km altitudes (stratosphere and mesosphere) ionising the ambient air. This ionisation leads to production of odd nitrogen (NOx) and odd hydrogen species, which take part in catalytic ozone destruction. NOx has a very long chemical lifetime during polar night conditions. Therefore NOx produced at high altitudes during polar night can be transported to lower stratospheric altitudes. Particular emphasis in this work is in the use of both space and ground based observations: ozone and NO2 measurements from the GOMOS instrument on board the European Space Agency's Envisat-satellite are used together with subionospheric VLF radio wave observations from ground stations. Combining the two observation techniques enabled detection of NOx enhancements throughout the middle atmosphere, including tracking the descent of NOx enhancements of high altitude origin down to the stratosphere. GOMOS observations of the large Solar Proton Events of October-November 2003 showed the progression of the SPE initiated NOx enhancements through the polar winter. In the upper stratosphere, nighttime NO2 increased by an order of magnitude, and the effect was observed to last for several weeks after the SPEs. Ozone decreases up to 60 % from the pre-SPE values were observed in the upper stratosphere nearly a month after the events. Over several weeks the GOMOS observations showed the gradual descent of the NOx enhancements to lower altitudes. Measurements from years 2002-2006 were used to study polar winter NOx increases and their connection to energetic particle precipitation. NOx enhancements were found to occur in a good correlation with both increased high-energy particle precipitation and increased geomagnetic activity. The average wintertime polar NOx was found to have a nearly linear relationship with the average wintertime geomagnetic activity. The results from this thesis work show how important energetic particle precipitation from outside the atmosphere is as a source of NOx in the middle atmosphere, and thus its importance to the chemical balance of the atmosphere.