Suomen maatalouden tuottamat kasvihuonekaasujen päästöt eri politiikkaskenaarioissa

Climate change is the single biggest environmental problem in the world at the moment. Although the effects are still not fully understood and there is considerable amount of uncertainty, many na-tions have decided to mitigate the change. On the societal level, a planner who tries to find an eco-nomically optimal solution to an environmental pollution problem seeks to reduce pollution from the sources where reductions are most cost-effective. This study aims to find out how effective the instruments of the agricultural policy are in the case of climate change mitigation in Finland. The theoretical base of this study is the neoclassical economic theory that is based on the assumption of a rational economic agent who maximizes his own utility. This theoretical base has been widened towards the direction clearly essential to the matter: the theory of environmental eco-nomics. Deeply relevant to this problem and central in the theory of environmental economics are the concepts of externalities and public goods. What are also relevant are the problems of global pollution and non-point-source pollution. Econometric modelling was the method that was applied to this study. The Finnish part of the AGMEMOD-model, covering the whole EU, was used for the estimation of the development of pollution. This model is a seemingly recursive, partially dynamic partial-equilibrium model that was constructed to predict the development of Finnish agricultural production of the most important products. For the study, I personally updated the model and also widened its scope in some relevant matters. Also, I devised a table that can calculate the emissions of greenhouse gases according to the rules set by the IPCC. With the model I investigated five alternative scenarios in comparison to the base-line scenario of Agenda 2000 agricultural policy. The alternative scenarios were: 1) the CAP reform of 2003, 2) free trade on agricultural commodities, 3) technological change, 4) banning the cultivation of organic soils and 5) the combination of the last three scenarios as the maximal achievement in reduction. The maximal achievement in the alternative scenario 5 was 1/3 of the level achieved on the base-line scenario. CAP reform caused only a minor reduction when com-pared to the base-line scenario. Instead, the free trade scenario and the scenario of technological change alone caused a significant reduction. The biggest single reduction was achieved by banning the cultivation of organic land. However, this was also the most questionable scenario to be real-ized, the reasons for this are further elaborated in the paper. The maximal reduction that can be achieved in the Finnish agricultural sector is about 11 % of the emission reduction that is needed to comply with the Kyoto protocol.

Recovery responses of acidified Finnish lakes under declining acid deposition

The present work provides a regional-scale assessment of the changes in acidifying deposition in Finland over the past 30 years and the current pattern in the recovery of acid-sensitive lakes from acidification in relation to changes in sulphate deposition. This information is needed for documenting the ecosystem benefits of costly emission reduction policies and further actions in air pollution policy. The development of sulphate deposition in Finland reflects that of European SO2 emissions. Before the 1990s, reductions in sulphur emissions in Europe had been relatively small and sulphate deposition showed no consistent trends. Due to emission reduction measures that were then taken, sulphate deposition started to clearly decline from the late 1980s. The bulk deposition of sulphate has declined 40-60% in most parts of the country during 1990-2003. The decline in sulphate deposition exceeded the decline of base cation deposition, which resulted in a decrease in acidity and acidifying potential of deposition over the 1990s. Nitrogen deposition also decreased since the late 1980s, but less than that of sulphate, and levelling off during the 1990s. Sulphate concentrations in all types of small lakes throughout Finland have declined from the early 1990s. The relative decrease in lake sulphate concentrations (average 40-50%) during 1990-2003 was rather similar to the decline in sulphate deposition, indicating a direct response to the reduction in deposition. There are presently no indications of elevated nitrate concentrations in forested headwater lakes. Base cation concentrations are still declining in many lakes, especially in south Finland, but to a lesser extent than sulphate allowing buffering capacity (alkalinity) to increase, being significant in 60% of the study lakes. Chemical recovery is resulting in biological recovery with populations of acid-sensitive fish species increasing. The recovery has been strongest in lakes in which sulphate has been the major acidifying agent, and recovery has been the strongest and most consistent in lakes in south Finland. The recovery of lakes in central Finland and north Finland is not as widespread and strong as observed in south. Many catchments, particularly in central Finland, have a high proportion of peatlands and therefore high TOC concentrations in lakes, and runoff-induced surges of organic acids have been an important confounding factor suppressing the recovery of pH and alkalinity in these lakes. Chemical recovery is progressing even in the most acidified lakes, but the buffering capacity of many lakes is still low and still sensitive to acidic input. Further reduction in sulphur emissions are needed for the alkalinity to increase in the acidified lakes. Increasing total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations are indicated in small forest lakes in Finland. The trends appear to be related to decreasing sulphate deposition and improved acid-base status of the soil, and the rise in TOC is integral to recovery from acidification. A new challenge is climate change with potential trends in temperature, precipitation and runoff, which are expected to affect future chemical and biological recovery from acidification. The potential impact on the mobilization and leaching of organic acids may become particularly important in Finnish conditions. Long-term environmental monitoring has evidently shown the success of international emission abatement strategies. The importance and value of integrated monitoring approach including physical, chemical and biological variables is clearly indicated, and continuous environmental monitoring is needed as a scientific basis for further actions in air pollution policy.

Analyzing changes in macro-level drivers of country-specific emissions : The role of consumption, technology and trade

Industrial ecology is an important field of sustainability science. It can be applied to study environmental problems in a policy relevant manner. Industrial ecology uses ecosystem analogy; it aims at closing the loop of materials and substances and at the same time reducing resource consumption and environmental emissions. Emissions from human activities are related to human interference in material cycles. Carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are essential elements for all living organisms, but in excess have negative environmental impacts, such as climate change (CO2, CH4 N2O), acidification (NOx) and eutrophication (N, P). Several indirect macro-level drivers affect emissions change. Population and affluence (GDP/capita) often act as upward drivers for emissions. Technology, as emissions per service used, and consumption, as economic intensity of use, may act as drivers resulting in a reduction in emissions. In addition, the development of country-specific emissions is affected by international trade. The aim of this study was to analyse changes in emissions as affected by macro-level drivers in different European case studies. ImPACT decomposition analysis (IPAT identity) was applied as a method in papers I III. The macro-level perspective was applied to evaluate CO2 emission reduction targets (paper II) and the sharing of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets (paper IV) in the European Union (EU27) up to the year 2020. Data for the study were mainly gathered from official statistics. In all cases, the results were discussed from an environmental policy perspective. The development of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions was analysed in the Finnish energy sector during a long time period, 1950 2003 (paper I). Finnish emissions of NOx began to decrease in the 1980s as the progress in technology in terms of NOx/energy curbed the impact of the growth in affluence and population. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions related to energy use during 1993 2004 (paper II) were analysed by country and region within the European Union. Considering energy-based CO2 emissions in the European Union, dematerialization and decarbonisation did occur, but not sufficiently to offset population growth and the rapidly increasing affluence during 1993 2004. The development of nitrogen and phosphorus load from aquaculture in relation to salmonid consumption in Finland during 1980 2007 was examined, including international trade in the analysis (paper III). A regional environmental issue, eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, and a marginal, yet locally important source of nutrients was used as a case. Nutrient emissions from Finnish aquaculture decreased from the 1990s onwards: although population, affluence and salmonid consumption steadily increased, aquaculture technology improved and the relative share of imported salmonids increased. According to the sustainability challenge in industrial ecology, the environmental impact of the growing population size and affluence should be compensated by improvements in technology (emissions/service used) and with dematerialisation. In the studied cases, the emission intensity of energy production could be lowered for NOx by cleaning the exhaust gases. Reorganization of the structure of energy production as well as technological innovations will be essential in lowering the emissions of both CO2 and NOx. Regarding the intensity of energy use, making the combustion of fuels more efficient and reducing energy use are essential. In reducing nutrient emissions from Finnish aquaculture to the Baltic Sea (paper III) through technology, limits of biological and physical properties of cultured fish, among others, will eventually be faced. Regarding consumption, salmonids are preferred to many other protein sources. Regarding trade, increasing the proportion of imports will outsource the impacts. Besides improving technology and dematerialization, other viewpoints may also be needed. Reducing the total amount of nutrients cycling in energy systems and eventually contributing to NOx emissions needs to be emphasized. Considering aquaculture emissions, nutrient cycles can be partly closed through using local fish as feed replacing imported feed. In particular, the reduction of CO2 emissions in the future is a very challenging task when considering the necessary rates of dematerialisation and decarbonisation (paper II). Climate change mitigation may have to focus on other greenhouse gases than CO2 and on the potential role of biomass as a carbon sink, among others. The global population is growing and scaling up the environmental impact. Population issues and growing affluence must be considered when discussing emission reductions. Climate policy has only very recently had an influence on emissions, and strong actions are now called for climate change mitigation. Environmental policies in general must cover all the regions related to production and impacts in order to avoid outsourcing of emissions and leakage effects. The macro-level drivers affecting changes in emissions can be identified with the ImPACT framework. Statistics for generally known macro-indicators are currently relatively well available for different countries, and the method is transparent. In the papers included in this study, a similar method was successfully applied in different types of case studies. Using transparent macro-level figures and a simple top-down approach are also appropriate in evaluating and setting international emission reduction targets, as demonstrated in papers II and IV. The projected rates of population and affluence growth are especially worth consideration in setting targets. However, sensitivities in calculations must be carefully acknowledged. In the basic form of the ImPACT model, the economic intensity of consumption and emission intensity of use are included. In seeking to examine consumption but also international trade in more detail, imports were included in paper III. This example demonstrates well how outsourcing of production influences domestic emissions. Country-specific production-based emissions have often been used in similar decomposition analyses. Nevertheless, trade-related issues must not be ignored.

Renewable Energy and Climate Policies: Studies in the Forest and Energy Sector

‪This dissertation examines the impacts of energy and climate policies on the energy and forest sectors, focusing on the case of Finland. The thesis consists of an introduction article and four separate studies. The dissertation was motivated by the climate concern and the increasing demand of renewable energy. In particular, the renewable energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission reduction targets of the European Union were driving this work. In Finland, both forest and energy sectors are in key roles in achieving these targets. In fact, the separation between forest and energy sector is diminishing as the energy sector is utilizing increasing amounts of wood in energy production and as the forest sector is becoming more and more important energy producer.‬ ‪The objective of this dissertation is to find out and measure the impacts of climate and energy policies on the forest and energy sectors. In climate policy, the focus is on emissions trading, and in energy policy the dissertation focuses on the promotion of renewable forest-based energy use. The dissertation relies on empirical numerical models that are based on microeconomic theory. Numerical partial equilibrium mixed complementarity problem models were constructed to study the markets under scrutiny. The separate studies focus on co-firing of wood biomass and fossil fuels, liquid biofuel production in the pulp and paper industry, and the impacts of climate policy on the pulp and paper sector.‬ ‪The dissertation shows that the policies promoting wood-based energy may have have unexpected negative impacts. When feed-in tariff is imposed together with emissions trading, in some plants the production of renewable electricity might decrease as the emissions price increases. The dissertation also shows that in liquid biofuel production, investment subsidy may cause high direct policy costs and other negative impacts when compared to other policy instruments. The results of the dissertation also indicate that from the climate mitigation perspective, perfect competition is the favored wood market competition structure, at least if the emissions trading system is not global.‬ ‪In conclusion, this dissertation suggests that when promoting the use of wood biomass in energy production, the favored policy instruments are subsidies that promote directly the renewable energy production (i.e. production subsidy, renewables subsidy or feed-in premium). Also, the policy instrument should be designed to be dependent on the emissions price or on the substitute price. In addition, this dissertation shows that when planning policies to promote wood-based renewable energy, the goals of the policy scheme should be clear before decisions are made on the choice of the policy instruments.‬

Effects of living crown reduction on needle element status of Scots pine

A wide range of biotic and abiotic factors, operating over different time perspectives and intensities, cause defoliation and a rapid decrease in the crown size of trees. Scleroderris canker disease [Gremmeniella abietina (Lagerb.) Morelet] has caused widespread crown reduction and tree mortality in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L) in forests in Scandinavia during the last three decades. In the 1980's, attempts were made to show, on the basis of the higher foliar N and S concentrations of affected pines in the diseased area, that sulphur and nitrogen deposition predispose trees to G. abietina. Unfortunately, in many studies on defoliated trees, exceptionally high or low needle mineral nutrient concentrations are still often interpreted as one of the causes of tree injury and not, conversely, as the result. In this thesis, three different field experiments, with foliar analysis as the main study method, were conducted in order to asses the possible long-term effects of living crown reduction on the needle nutrient concentrations of Scots pine trees in southern Finland. The crown ratio and length of the living crown were used to estimate the amount of defoliation in the reduced canopies. The material for the partial studies was collected and a total of 968 foliar samples were analysed individually (15-17 elements/sample) on a total of 488 sample trees (140 diseased, 116 pruned and 232 control trees) during the years 1987-1996 in 13 Scots pine stands. All the three experiments of this thesis provided significant evidence that severe, disease-induced defoliation or artificial pruning of the living branches can induce long-lasting nutritional changes in the foliage of the recovering trees under the typical growing conditions for Scots pine. The foliar concentrations of all the 17 mineral nutrients/elements analysed were affected, to a varying degree, by artificial pruning during the following three years. Although Scots pine, as an evergreen conifer, is considered to have low induced chemical responses to defoliation, this study proved experimentally under natural forest conditions that severe artificial pruning or disease-induced defoliation of Scots pine trees may induce biologically significant changes in the concentrations of most of the important macro- and micronutrients, as well as of carbon, in refoliated needles. Concerning the studies in this thesis, I find the results significant in providing new information about the long-term effects of rapid living crown reduction on the foliar nutrient and element status of Scots pine trees. Key words: Foliar analysis, defoliation, needle loss, pruning, nutrients, Pinus sylvestris, Gremmeniella abietina

Use of biomass fuels in the brick-making industries of Sudan: Implications for deforestation and greenhouse gas emission

The study focuses on the potential roles of the brick making industries in Sudan in deforestation and greenhouse gas emission due to the consumption of biofuels. The results were based on the observation of 25 brick making industries from three administrative regions in Sudan namely, Khartoum, Kassala and Gezira. The methodological approach followed the procedures outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For predicting a serious deforestation scenario, it was also assumed that all of wood use for this particular purpose is from unsustainable sources. The study revealed that the total annual quantity of fuelwood consumed by the surveyed brick making industries (25) was 2,381 t dm. Accordingly, the observed total potential deforested wood was 10,624 m3, in which the total deforested round wood was 3,664 m3 and deforested branches was 6,961 m3. The study observed that a total of 2,990 t biomass fuels (fuelwood and dung cake) consumed annually by the surveyed brick making industries for brick burning. Consequently, estimated total annual emissions of greenhouse gases were 4,832 t CO2, 21 t CH4, 184 t CO, 0.15 t N20, 5 t NOX and 3.5 t NO while the total carbon released in the atmosphere was 1,318 t. Altogether, the total annual greenhouse gases emissions from biomass fuels burning was 5,046 t; of which 4,104 t from fuelwood and 943 t from dung cake burning. According to the results, due to the consumption of fuelwood in the brick making industries (3,450 units) of Sudan, the amount of wood lost from the total growing stock of wood in forests and trees in Sudan annually would be 1,466,000 m3 encompassing 505,000 m3 round wood and 961,000 m3 branches annually. By considering all categories of biofuels (fuelwood and dung cake), it was estimated that, the total emissions from all the brick making industries of Sudan would be 663,000 t CO2, 2,900 t CH4, 25,300 t CO, 20 t N2O, 720 t NOX and 470 t NO per annum, while the total carbon released in the atmosphere would be 181,000 t annually.

Informational efficiency of the European Union emission allowance market

This thesis studies the informational efficiency of the European Union emission allowance (EUA) market. In an efficient market, the market price is unpredictable and profits above average are impossible in the long run. The main research problem is does the EUA price follow a random walk. The method is an econometric analysis of the price series, which includes an autocorrelation coefficient test and a variance ratio test. The results reveal that the price series is autocorrelated and therefore a nonrandom walk. In order to find out the extent of predictability, the price series is modelled with an autoregressive model. The conclusion is that the EUA price is autocorrelated only to a small degree and that the predictability cannot be used to make extra profits. The EUA market is therefore considered informationally efficient, although the price series does not fulfill the requirements of a random walk. A market review supports the conclusion, but it is clear that the maturing of the market is still in process.

Oxygen reduction and proton translocation by cytochrome c oxidase

Energy conversion by living organisms is central dogma of bioenergetics. The effectiveness of the energy extraction by aerobic organisms is much greater than by anaerobic ones. In aerobic organisms the final stage of energy conversion occurs in respiratory chain that is located in the inner membrane of mitochondria or cell membrane of some aerobic bacteria. The terminal complex of the respiratory chain is cytochrome c oxidase (CcO) - the subject of this study. The primary function of CcO is to reduce oxygen to water. For this, CcO accepts electrons from a small soluble enzyme cytochrome c from one side of the membrane and protons from another side. Moreover, CcO translocates protons across the membrane. Both oxygen reduction and proton translocation contributes to generation of transmembrane electrochemical gradient that is used for ATP synthesis and different types of work in the cell. Although the structure of CcO is defined with a relatively high atomic resolution (1.8 Å), its function can hardly be elucidated from the structure. The electron transfer route within CcO and its steps are very well defined. Meanwhile, the proton transfer roots were predicted from the site-specific mutagenesis and later proved by X-ray crystallography, however, the more strong proof of the players of the proton translocation machine is still required. In this work we developed new methods to study CcO function based on FTIR (Fourier Transform Infrared) spectroscopy. Mainly with use of these methods we answered several questions that were controversial for many years: [i] the donor of H+ for dioxygen bond splitting was identified and [ii] the protolytic transitions of Glu-278 one of the key amino acid in proton translocation mechanism was shown for the first time.

Two views on interstellar dust: near-infrared scattering and polarized thermal dust emission

Interstellar clouds are not featureless, but show quite complex internal structures of filaments and clumps when observed with high enough resolution. These structures have been generated by 1) turbulent motions driven mainly by supernovae, 2) magnetic fields working on the ions and, through neutral-ion collisions, on neutral gas as well, and 3) self-gravity pulling a dense clump together to form a new star. The study of the cloud structure gives us information on the relative importance of each of these mechanisms, and helps us to gain a better understanding of the details of the star formation process. Interstellar dust is often used as a tracer for the interstellar gas which forms the bulk of the interstellar matter. Some of the methods that are used to derive the column density are summarized in this thesis. A new method, which uses the scattered light to map the column density in large fields with high spatial resolution, is introduced. This thesis also takes a look at the grain alignment with respect to the magnetic fields. The aligned grains give rise to the polarization of starlight and dust emission, thus revealing the magnetic field. The alignment mechanisms have been debated for the last half century. The strongest candidate at present is the radiative torques mechanism. In the first four papers included in this thesis, the scattered light method of column density estimation is formulated, tested in simulations, and finally used to obtain a column density map from observations. They demonstrate that the scattered light method is a very useful and reliable tool in column density estimation, and is able to provide higher resolution than the near-infrared color excess method. These two methods are complementary. The derived column density maps are also used to gain information on the dust emissivity within the observed cloud. The two final papers present simulations of polarized thermal dust emission assuming that the alignment happens by the radiative torques mechanism. We show that the radiative torques can explain the observed decline of the polarization degree towards dense cores. Furthermore, the results indicate that the dense cores themselves might not contribute significantly to the polarized signal, and hence one needs to be careful when interpreting the observations and deriving the magnetic field.

Studies on Aerosol Particle Emission, Sampling and Authenticity

Emissions of coal combustion fly ash through real scale ElectroStatic Precipitators (ESP) were studied in different coal combustion and operation conditions. Sub-micron fly-ash aerosol emission from a power plant boiler and the ESP were determined and consequently the aerosol penetration, as based on electrical mobility measurements, thus giving thereby an indication for an estimate on the size and the maximum extent that the small particles can escape. The experimentals indicate a maximum penetration of 4% to 20 % of the small particles, as counted on number basis instead of the normally used mass basis, while simultaneously the ESP is operating at a nearly 100% collection efficiency on mass basis. Although the size range as such seems to appear independent of the coal, of the boiler or even of the device used for the emission control, the maximum penetration level on the number basis depends on the ESP operating parameters. The measured emissions were stable during stable boiler operation for a fired coal, and the emissions seemed each to be different indicating that the sub-micron size distribution of the fly-ash could be used as a specific characteristics for recognition, for instance for authenticity, provided with an indication of known stable operation. Consequently, the results on the emissions suggest an optimum particle size range for environmental monitoring in respect to the probability of finding traces from the samples. The current work embodies also an authentication system for aerosol samples for post-inspection from any macroscopic sample piece. The system can comprise newly introduced new devices, for mutually independent use, or, for use in a combination with each other, as arranged in order to promote the sampling operation length and/or the tag selection diversity. The tag for the samples can be based on naturally occurring measures and/or added measures of authenticity in a suitable combination. The method involves not only military related applications but those in civil industries as well. Alternatively to the samples, the system can be applied to ink for note printing or other monetary valued papers, but also in a filter manufacturing for marking fibrous filters.

Development of biogenic VOC emission inventories for the boreal forest

Luonnosta haihtuvat orgaaniset yhdisteet, joita pääsee ilmaan etenkin metsistä, voivat vaikuttaa paikalliseen ja alueelliseen ilmanlaatuun, koska ne reagoivat ilmakehässä. Niiden reaktiotuotteet voivat myös osallistua uusien hiukkasten muodostumiseen ja kasvuun, millä voi olla vaikutusta ilmakehän säteilytaseeseen ja tätä kautta myös ilmastoon. Hiukkaset absorboivat ja sirottavat auringon säteilyä ja maapallon lämpösäteilyä minkä lisäksi ne vaikuttavat pilvien säteilyominaisuuksiin, määrään ja elinikään. Koko maapallon mittakaavassa luonnosta tulevat hiilivetypäästöt ylittävät ihmistoiminnan aiheuttamat päästöt moninkertaisesti. Tämän vuoksi luonnon päästöjen arviointi on tärkeää kun halutaan kehittää tehokkaita ilmanlaatu- ja ilmastostrategioita. Tämä tutkimus käsittelee boreaalisen metsän hiilivetypäästöjä. Boreaalinen metsä eli pohjoinen havumetsä on suurin maanpäällinen ekosysteemi, ja se ulottuu lähes yhtenäisenä nauhana koko pohjoisen pallonpuoliskon ympäri. Sille on tyypillistä puulajien suhteellisen pieni kirjo sekä olosuhteiden ja kasvun voimakkaat vuodenaikaisvaihtelut. Työssä on tutkittu Suomen yleisimmän boreaalisen puun eli männyn hiilivetypäästöjen vuodenaikaisvaihtelua sekä päästöjen riippuvuutta lämpötilasta ja valosta. Saatuja tuloksia on käytetty yhdessä muiden boreaalisilla puilla tehtyjen päästömittaustulosten kanssa Suomen metsiä varten kehitetyssä päästömallissa. Malli perustuu lisäksi maankäyttötietoihin, suomen metsille kehitettyyn luokitukseen ja meteorologisiin tietoihin, joiden avulla se laskee metsien hiilivetypäästöt kasvukauden aikana. Suomen metsien päästöt koostuvat koko kasvukauden ajan suurelta osin alfa- ja beta-pineenistä sekä delta-kareenista. Kesällä ja syksyllä päästöissä on myös paljon sabineenia, jota tulee etenkin lehtipuista. Päästöt seuraavat lämpötilan keskimääräistä vaihtelua, ovat suurimmillaan maan eteläosissa ja laskevat tasaisesti pohjoiseen siirryttäessä. Metsän isopreenipäästö on suhteellisen pieni – Suomessa tärkein isopreeniä päästävä puu on vähäpäästöinen kuusi, koska runsaspäästöisten pajun ja haavan osuus metsän lehtimassasta on hyvin pieni. Tässä työssä on myös laskettu ensimmäinen arvio metsän seskviterpeenipäästöistä. Seskviterpeenipäästöt alkavat Juhannuksen jälkeen ja ovat kasvukauden aikana samaa suuruusluokkaa kuin isopreenipäästöt. Vuositasolla Suomen metsien hiilivetypäästöt ovat noin kaksinkertaiset ihmistoiminnasta aiheutuviin päästöihin verrattuna.