Observation of single top quark production and measurement of |Vtb| with CDF

We report the observation of electroweak single top quark production in 3.2  fb-1 of pp̅ collision data collected by the Collider Detector at Fermilab at √s=1.96  TeV. Candidate events in the W+jets topology with a leptonically decaying W boson are classified as signal-like by four parallel analyses based on likelihood functions, matrix elements, neural networks, and boosted decision trees. These results are combined using a super discriminant analysis based on genetically evolved neural networks in order to improve the sensitivity. This combined result is further combined with that of a search for a single top quark signal in an orthogonal sample of events with missing transverse energy plus jets and no charged lepton. We observe a signal consistent with the standard model prediction but inconsistent with the background-only model by 5.0 standard deviations, with a median expected sensitivity in excess of 5.9 standard deviations. We measure a production cross section of 2.3-0.5+0.6(stat+sys)  pb, extract the value of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix element |Vtb|=0.91-0.11+0.11(stat+sys)±0.07  (theory), and set a lower limit |Vtb|>0.71 at the 95% C.L., assuming mt=175  GeV/c2.

Observation of single top quark production and measurement of |Vtb| with CDF

We report the observation of electroweak single top quark production in 3.2 fb-1 of ppbar collision data collected by the Collider Detector at Fermilab at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV. Candidate events in the W+jets topology with a leptonically decaying W boson are classified as signal-like by four parallel analyses based on likelihood functions, matrix elements, neural networks, and boosted decision trees. These results are combined using a super discriminant analysis based on genetically evolved neural networks in order to improve the sensitivity. This combined result is further combined with that of a search for a single top quark signal in an orthogonal sample of events with missing transverse energy plus jets and no charged lepton. We observe a signal consistent with the standard model prediction but inconsistent with the background-only model by 5.0 standard deviations, with a median expected sensitivity in excess of 5.9 standard deviations. We measure a production cross section of 2.3+0.6-0.5(stat+sys) pb, extract the CKM matrix element value |Vtb|=0.91+0.11-0.11 (stat+sys)+-0.07(theory), and set a lower limit |Vtb|>0.71 at the 95% confidence level, assuming m_t=175 GeVc^2.

The Reorganisation of Provincial Territories in Light of the Imperial Decision-Making Process : Later Roman Arabia and Tres Palaestinae as Case Studies

The dissertation examines Roman provincial administration and the phenomenon of territorial reorganisations of provinces during the Imperial period with special emphasis on the provinces of Arabia and Palaestina during the Later Roman period, i.e., from Diocletian (r. 284 305) to the accession of Phocas (602), in the light of imperial decision-making. Provinces were the basic unit of Roman rule, for centuries the only level of administration that existed between the emperor and the cities of the Empire. The significance of the territorial reorganisations that the provinces were subjected to during the Imperial period is thus of special interest. The approach to the phenomenon is threefold: firstly, attention is paid to the nature and constraints of the Roman system of provincial administration. Secondly, the phenomenon of territorial reorganisations is analysed on the macro-scale, and thirdly, a case study concerning the reorganisations of the provinces of Arabia and Palaestina is conducted. The study of the mechanisms of decision-making provides a foundation through which the collected data of all known major territorial reorganisations is interpreted. The data concerning reorganisations is also subjected to qualitative comparative analysis that provides a new perspective to the data in the form of statistical analysis that is sensitive to the complexities of individual cases. This analysis of imperial decision-making is based on a timeframe stretching from Augustus (r. 30 BC AD 14) to the accession of Phocas (602). The study identifies five distinct phases in the use of territorial reorganisations of the provinces. From Diocletian s reign there is a clear normative change that made territorial reorganisations a regular tool of administration for the decision-making elite for addressing a wide variety of qualitatively different concerns. From the beginning of the fifth century the use of territorial reorganisations rapidly diminishes. The two primary reasons for the decline in the use of reorganisations were the solidification of ecclesiastical power and interests connected to the extent of provinces, and the decline of the dioceses. The case study of Palaestina and Arabia identifies seven different territorial reorganisations from Diocletian to Phocas. Their existence not only testifies to wider imperial policies, but also shows sensitivity to local conditions and corresponds with the general picture of provincial reorganisations. The territorial reorganisations of the provinces reflect the proactive control of the Roman decision-making elite. The importance of reorganisations should be recognised more clearly as part of the normal imperial administration of the provinces and especially reflecting the functioning of dioceses.

Leibniz on Rational Decision-Making

In this study I discuss G. W. Leibniz's (1646-1716) views on rational decision-making from the standpoint of both God and man. The Divine decision takes place within creation, as God freely chooses the best from an infinite number of possible worlds. While God's choice is based on absolutely certain knowledge, human decisions on practical matters are mostly based on uncertain knowledge. However, in many respects they could be regarded as analogous in more complicated situations. In addition to giving an overview of the divine decision-making and discussing critically the criteria God favours in his choice, I provide an account of Leibniz's views on human deliberation, which includes some new ideas. One of these concerns is the importance of estimating probabilities in making decisions one estimates both the goodness of the act itself and its consequences as far as the desired good is concerned. Another idea is related to the plurality of goods in complicated decisions and the competition this may provoke. Thirdly, heuristic models are used to sketch situations under deliberation in order to help in making the decision. Combining the views of Marcelo Dascal, Jaakko Hintikka and Simo Knuuttila, I argue that Leibniz applied two kinds of models of rational decision-making to practical controversies, often without explicating the details. The more simple, traditional pair of scales model is best suited to cases in which one has to decide for or against some option, or to distribute goods among parties and strive for a compromise. What may be of more help in more complicated deliberations is the novel vectorial model, which is an instance of the general mathematical doctrine of the calculus of variations. To illustrate this distinction, I discuss some cases in which he apparently applied these models in different kinds of situation. These examples support the view that the models had a systematic value in his theory of practical rationality.

Agroforestry systems for sustainable livelihoods and improved land management in the East Usambara Mountains, Tanzania

Forest destruction for agriculture continues to be a major threat to the rich biological diversity in the East Usambara Mountains in the north-eastern corner of Tanzania. The highest ratio of endemic plant and animal species found on 100 km2 anywhere in the world is depending on the remaining natural forests. Forests are vitally important for the local population in many different ways, and nationally they are an important source of water and hydroelectricity. The soils, of low fertility and mostly acidic Ferrasols, mainly have the nutrients in the topsoil. After clear-cutting, the soils soon become poor when the topsoil is eroded. High-value cardamom is nowadays unsustainably cultivated in the natural forests of the East Usambaras. The general aim was to study the possibilities to develop new profitable and sustainable agroforestry systems for the benefit of the local people that could contribute to relieving the pressure on the remaining natural forests in the East Usambara Mountains. Results from a spice crop agroforestry trial, established in cooperation with a local farmer, showed a clear advantage of intercropping cardamom (Elettaria cardamomum) and black pepper (Piper nigrum) with trees, especially with Grevillea robusta. The nitrogen fixing tree species Gliricidia sepium also improved the nitrogen and organic matter content of the soil over levels found in the natural forest. With improved agroforestry methods for spice production the households generated as much as13 times the net income obtained with traditional forest cultivation practices. There are thus sustainable and profitable ways to cultivate spices as cash crops in well-managed homegardens. However, the farmers need stable markets, access to credit and comprehensive extension services. The soil fertility depletion should be reversed with organic manure application and an enabling policy environment for the smallholder-farming sector. Strong farmers organisations and equal rights to resources and decision-making are needed. Organic spices have an increasing demand, and their export would be profitable for these farmers. What is, however, most needed for a change is a political will of a government that understands the importance of agricultural and forestry development for poverty reduction.

Women, environmental changes and forestry-related development : Gender-affected roles of rural people in land degradation and environmental rehabilitation in a dry region of Sudan

The purpose of the present study was to increase understanding of the interaction of rural people and, specifically, women with the environment in a dry area in Sudan. The study that included both nomadic pastoralists and farmers aimed at answering two main research questions, namely: What kinds of roles have the local people, and the women in particular, had in land degradation in the study area and what kinds of issues would a gender-sensitive, forestry-related environmental rehabilitation intervention need to consider there? The study adopted the definition of land degradation as proposed by the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), which describes land degradation as reduction or loss the biological or economic productivity and complexity of land in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas. The Convention perceives desertification as land degradation. The dry study area in Sudan, South of the Sahara, has been the subject of land degradation or desertification discussions since the 1970s, and other studies have been also conducted to assess the degradation in the area. Nevertheless, the exact occurrence, scale and local significance of land degradation in the area is still unclear. This study explored how the rural population whose livelihood depended on the area, perceived environmental changes occurring there and compared their conceptions with other sources of information of the area such as research reports. The main fieldwork methods included interviews with open-ended questions and observation of people and the environment. The theoretical framework conceptualised the rural population as land users whose choices of environmental activities are affected by multiple factors in the social and biophysical contexts in which they live. It was emphasised that these factors have their own specific characteristics in different contexts, simultaneously recognising that there are also factors that generally affect environmental practices in various areas such as the land users' environmental literacy (conceptions of the environment), gender and livelihood needs. The people studied described that environmental changes, such as reduced vegetation cover and cropland production, had complicated the maintenance of their livelihoods in the study area. Some degraded sites were also identified through observations during the fieldwork. Whether a large-scale reduction of cropland productivity had occurred in the farmers' croplands remained, however, unclear. The study found that the environmental impact of the rural women's activities varied and was normally limited. The women's most significant environmental impact resulted from their cutting of trees, which was likely to contribute, at least in some places, to land degradation, affecting the environment together with climate and livestock. However, when a wider perspective is taken, it becomes questionable whether the women have really played roles in land degradation, since gender, poverty and the need to maintain livelihood had caused them to conduct environmentally harmful activities. The women have had, however, no power to change the causes of their activities. The findings further suggested that an inadequate availability of food was the most critical problem in the study area. Therefore, an environmental programme in the area was suggested to include technical measures to increase the productivity of croplands, opportunities for income generation and readiness to co-operate with other programmes to improve the local people's abilities to maintain their livelihoods. In order to protect the environment and alleviate the women's work burden, the introduction of fuel-saving stoves was also suggested. Furthermore, it was suggested that increased planting of trees on homesteads would be supported by an easy availability of tree seedlings. Planting trees on common property land was, however, perceived as extremely demanding in the study area, due to scarcity of such land. In addition, it became apparent that the local land users, and women in particular, needed to allocate their labour to maintain the immediate livelihood of their families and were not motivated to allocate their labour solely for environmental rehabilitation. Nonetheless, from the point of view of the existing social structures, women's active participation in a community-based environmental programme would be rather natural, particularly among the farmer women who had already formed a women's group and participated in communal decision making. Forming of a women group or groups was suggested to further support both the farmer women's and pastoral women's active participation within an environmental programme and their general empowerment. An Environmental programme would need to acknowledge that improving rural people's well-being and maintaining their livelihood in the study area requires development and co-operation with various sectors in Sudan.

What was behind the bark? : An assessment of decay among urban Tilia, Betula and Acer trees felled as hazardous in the Helsinki City area

Old trees growing in urban environments are often felled due to symptoms of mechanical defects that could be hazardous to people and property. The decisions concerning these removals are justified by risk assessments carried out by tree care professionals. The major motivation for this study was to determine the most common profiles of potential hazard characteristics for the three most common urban tree genera in Helsinki City: Tilia, Betula and Acer, and in this way improve management practices and protection of old amenity trees. For this research, material from approximately 250 urban trees was collected in cooperation with the City of Helsinki Public Works Department during 2001 - 2004. From the total number of trees sampled, approximately 70% were defined as hazardous. The tree species had characteristic features as potential hazard profiles. For Tilia trees, hollowed heartwood with low fungal activity and advanced decay caused by Ganoderma lipsiense were the two most common profiles. In Betula spp., the primary reason for tree removal was usually lowered amenity value in terms of decline of the crown. Internal cracks, most often due to weak fork formation, were common causes of potential failure in Acer spp. Decay caused by Rigidoporus populinus often increased the risk of stem breakage in these Acer trees. Of the decay fungi observed, G. lipsiense was most often the reason for the increased risk of stem collapse. Other fungi that also caused extensive decay were R. populinus, Inonotus obliquus, Kretzschmaria deusta and Phellinus igniarius. The most common decay fungi in terms of incidence were Pholiota spp., but decay caused by these species did not have a high potential for causing stem breakage, because it rarely extended to the cambium. The various evaluations used in the study suggested contradictions in felling decisions based on trees displaying different stages of decay. For protection of old urban trees, it is crucial to develop monitoring methods so that tree care professionals could better analyse the rate of decay progression towards the sapwood and separate those trees with decreasing amounts of sound wood from those with decay that is restricted to the heartwood area.

Owner-driven decision support in holding-specific forest planning

Socio-economic and demographic changes among family forest owners and demands for versatile forestry decision aid motivated this study, which sought grounds for owner-driven forest planning. Finnish family forest owners’ forest-related decision making was analyzed in two interview-based qualitative studies, the main findings of which were surveyed quantitatively. Thereafter, a scheme for adaptively mixing methods in individually tailored decision support processes was constructed. The first study assessed owners’ decision-making strategies by examining varying levels of the sharing of decision-making power and the desire to learn. Five decision-making modes – trusting, learning, managing, pondering, and decisive – were discerned and discussed against conformable decision-aid approaches. The second study conceptualized smooth communication and assessed emotional, practical, and institutional boosters of and barriers to such smoothness in communicative decision support. The results emphasize the roles of trust, comprehension, and contextual services in owners’ communicative decision making. In the third study, a questionnaire tool to measure owners’ attitudes towards communicative planning was constructed by using trusting, learning, and decisive dimensions. Through a multivariate analysis of survey data, three owner groups were identified as fusions of the original decision-making modes: trusting learners (53%), decisive learners (27%), and decisive managers (20%). Differently weighted communicative services are recommended for these compound wishes. The findings of the studies above were synthesized in a form of adaptive decision analysis (ADA), which allows and encourages the decision-maker (owner) to make deliberate choices concerning the phases of a decision aid (planning) process. The ADA model relies on adaptability and feedback management, which foster smooth communication with the owner and (inter-)organizational learning of the planning institution(s). The summarized results indicate that recognizing the communication-related amenity values of family forest owners may be crucial in developing planning and extension services. It is therefore recommended that owners, root-level planners, consultation professionals, and pragmatic researchers collaboratively continue to seek stable change.

Interactions between transgenic trees and mycorrhizal and pathogenic fungi

The development of biotechnology techniques in plant breeding and the new commercial applications have raised public and scientific concerns about the safety of genetically modified (GM) crops and trees. To find out the feasibility of these new technologies in the breeding of commercially important Finnish hardwood species and to estimate the ecological risks of the produced transgenic plants, the experiments of this study have been conducted as a part of a larger project focusing on the risk assessment of GM-trees. Transgenic Betula pendula and Populus trees were produced via Agrobacterium mediated transformation. Stilbene synthase (STS) gene from pine (Pinus sylvestris) and chitinase gene from sugar beet (Beta vulgaris) were transferred to (hybrid) aspen and birch, respectively, to improve disease resistance against fungal pathogens. To modify lignin biosynthesis, a 4-coumarate:coenzyme A ligase (4CL) gene fragment in antisense orientation was introduced into two birch clones. In in vitro test, one transgenic aspen line expressing pine STS gene showed increased resistance to decay fungus Phellinus tremulae. In the field, chitinase transgenic birch lines were more susceptible to leaf spot (Pyrenopeziza betulicola) than the non-transgenic control clone while the resistance against birch rust (Melampsoridium betulinum) was improved. No changes in the content or composition of lignin were detected in the 4CL antisense birch lines. In order to evaluate the ecological effects of the produced GM trees on non-target organisms, an in vitro mycorrhiza experiment with Paxillus involutus and a decomposition experiment in the field were performed. The expression of a transgenic chitinase did not disturb the establishment of mycorrhizal symbiosis between birch and P. involutus in vitro. 4CL antisense transformed birch lines showed retarded root growth but were able to form normal ectomycorrhizal associations with the mycorrhizal fungus in vitro. 4CL lines also showed normal litter decomposition. Unexpected growth reductions resulting from the gene transformation were observed in chitinase transgenic and 4CL antisense birch lines. These results indicate that genetic engineering can provide a tool in increasing disease resistance in Finnish tree species. More extensive data with several ectomycorrhizal species is needed to evaluate the consequences of transgene expression on beneficial plant-fungus symbioses. The potential pleiotropic effects of the transgene should also be taken into account when considering the safety of transgenic trees.

Homoclinic Splitting without Trees

We study a Hamiltonian describing a pendulum coupled with several anisochronous oscillators, giving a simple construction of unstable KAM tori and their stable and unstable manifolds for analytic perturbations. When the coupling takes place through an even trigonometric polynomial in the angle variables, we extend analytically the solutions of the equations of motion, order by order in the perturbation parameter, to a large neighbourhood of the real line representing time. Subsequently, we devise an asymptotic expansion for the splitting (matrix) associated with a homoclinic point. This expansion consists of contributions that are manifestly exponentially small in the limit of vanishing gravity, by a shift-of-countour argument. Hence, we infer a similar upper bound for the splitting itself. In particular, the derivation of the result does not call for a tree expansion with explicit cancellation mechanisms.