Towards the Use of Radar Winds in Numerical Weather Prediction

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models provide the basis for weather forecasting by simulating the evolution of the atmospheric state. A good forecast requires that the initial state of the atmosphere is known accurately, and that the NWP model is a realistic representation of the atmosphere. Data assimilation methods are used to produce initial conditions for NWP models. The NWP model background field, typically a short-range forecast, is updated with observations in a statistically optimal way. The objective in this thesis has been to develope methods in order to allow data assimilation of Doppler radar radial wind observations. The work has been carried out in the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) 3-dimensional variational data assimilation framework. Observation modelling is a key element in exploiting indirect observations of the model variables. In the radar radial wind observation modelling, the vertical model wind profile is interpolated to the observation location, and the projection of the model wind vector on the radar pulse path is calculated. The vertical broadening of the radar pulse volume, and the bending of the radar pulse path due to atmospheric conditions are taken into account. Radar radial wind observations are modelled within observation errors which consist of instrumental, modelling, and representativeness errors. Systematic and random modelling errors can be minimized by accurate observation modelling. The impact of the random part of the instrumental and representativeness errors can be decreased by calculating spatial averages from the raw observations. Model experiments indicate that the spatial averaging clearly improves the fit of the radial wind observations to the model in terms of observation minus model background (OmB) standard deviation. Monitoring the quality of the observations is an important aspect, especially when a new observation type is introduced into a data assimilation system. Calculating the bias for radial wind observations in a conventional way can result in zero even in case there are systematic differences in the wind speed and/or direction. A bias estimation method designed for this observation type is introduced in the thesis. Doppler radar radial wind observation modelling, together with the bias estimation method, enables the exploitation of the radial wind observations also for NWP model validation. The one-month model experiments performed with the HIRLAM model versions differing only in a surface stress parameterization detail indicate that the use of radar wind observations in NWP model validation is very beneficial.

4QMMT - The Problem of the Epilogue

The main focus of this study is the epilogue of 4QMMT (4QMiqsat Ma aseh ha-Torah), a text of obscure genre containing a halakhic section found in cave 4 at Qumran. In the official edition published in the series Discoveries of the Judaean Desert (DJD X), the extant document was divided by its editors, Elisha Qimron and John Strugnell, into three literary divisions: Section A) the calendar section representing a 364-day solar calendar, Section B) the halakhot, and Section C) an epilogue. The work begins with text critical inspection of the manuscripts containing text from the epilogue (mss 4Q397, 4Q398, and 4Q399). However, since the relationship of the epilogue to the other sections of the whole document 4QMMT is under investigation, the calendrical fragments (4Q327 and 4Q394 3-7, lines 1-3) and the halakhic section also receive some attention, albeit more limited and purpose oriented. In Ch. 2, after a transcription of the fragments of the epilogue, a synopsis is presented in order to evaluate the composite text of the DJD X edition in light of the evidence provided by the individual manuscripts. As a result, several critical comments are offered, and finally, an alternative arrangement of the fragments of the epilogue with an English translation. In the following chapter (Ch. 3), the diversity of the two main literary divisions, the halakhic section and the epilogue, is discussed, and it is demonstrated that the author(s) of 4QMMT adopted and adjusted the covenantal pattern known from biblical law collections, more specifically Deuteronomy. The question of the genre of 4QMMT is investigated in Ch. 4. The final chapter (Ch. 5) contains an analysis of the use of Scripture in the epilogue. In a close reading, both the explicit citations and the more subtle allusions are investigated in an attempt to trace the theology of the epilogue. The main emphases of the epilogue are covenantal faithfulness, repentance and return. The contents of the document reflect a grave concern for the purity of the cult in Jerusalem, and in the epilogue Deuteronomic language and expressions are used to convince the readers of the necessity of a reformation. The large number of late copies found in cave 4 at Qumran witness the significance of 4QMMT and the continuous importance of the Jerusalem Temple for the Qumran community.