Do Measurement Errors in GDP Announcements Cause Output Fluctuations?

This thesis studies empirically whether measurement errors in aggregate production statistics affect sentiment and future output. Initial announcements of aggregate production are subject to measurement error, because many of the data required to compile the statistics are produced with a lag. This measurement error can be gauged as the difference between the latest revised statistic and its initial announcement. Assuming aggregate production statistics help forecast future aggregate production, these measurement errors are expected to affect macroeconomic forecasts. Assuming agents’ macroeconomic forecasts affect their production choices, these measurement errors should affect future output through sentiment. This thesis is primarily empirical, so the theoretical basis, strategic complementarity, is discussed quite briefly. However, it is a model in which higher aggregate production increases each agent’s incentive to produce. In this circumstance a statistical announcement which suggests aggregate production is high would increase each agent’s incentive to produce, thus resulting in higher aggregate production. In this way the existence of strategic complementarity provides the theoretical basis for output fluctuations caused by measurement mistakes in aggregate production statistics. Previous empirical studies suggest that measurement errors in gross national product affect future aggregate production in the United States. Additionally it has been demonstrated that measurement errors in the Index of Leading Indicators affect forecasts by professional economists as well as future industrial production in the United States. This thesis aims to verify the applicability of these findings to other countries, as well as study the link between measurement errors in gross domestic product and sentiment. This thesis explores the relationship between measurement errors in gross domestic production and sentiment and future output. Professional forecasts and consumer sentiment in the United States and Finland, as well as producer sentiment in Finland, are used as the measures of sentiment. Using statistical techniques it is found that measurement errors in gross domestic product affect forecasts and producer sentiment. The effect on consumer sentiment is ambiguous. The relationship between measurement errors and future output is explored using data from Finland, United States, United Kingdom, New Zealand and Sweden. It is found that measurement errors have affected aggregate production or investment in Finland, United States, United Kingdom and Sweden. Specifically, it was found that overly optimistic statistics announcements are associated with higher output and vice versa.

Mutations of mitochondrial DNA polymerase gamma: an important cause of neurological disorders

Thesis focuses on mutations of POLG1 gene encoding catalytic subunit polγ-α of mitochondrial DNA polymerase gamma holoenzyme (polG) and the association of mutations with different clinical phenotypes. In addition, particular defective mutant variants of the protein were characterized biochemically in vitro. PolG-holoenzyme is the sole DNA polymerase found in mitochondria. It is involved in replication and repair of the mitochondrial genome, mtDNA. Holoenzyme also includes the accessory subunit polγ-β, which is required for the enhanced processivity of polγ-α. Defective polγ-α causes accumulation of secondary mutations on mtDNA, which leads to a defective oxidative phosphorylation system. The clinical consequences of such mutations are variable, affecting nervous system, skeletal muscles, liver and other post-mitotic tissues. The aims of the studies included: 1) Determination of the role of POLG1 mutations in neurological syndromes with features of mitochondrial dysfunction and an unknown molecular cause. 2) Development and set up of diagnostic tests for routine clinical purposes. 3) Biochemical characterization of the functional consequences of the identified polγ-α variants. Studies describe new neurological phenotypes in addition to PEO caused by POLG1 mutations, including parkinsonism, premature amenorrhea, ataxia and Parkinson s disease (PD). POLG1 mutations and polymorphisms are both common and/or potential genetic risk factors at least among the Finnish population. The major findings and applications reported here are: 1) POLG1 mutations cause parkinsonism and premature menopause in PEO families in either a recessive or a dominant manner. 2) A common recessive POLG1 mutations (A467T and W748S) in the homozygous state causes severe adult or juvenile-onset ataxia without muscular symptoms or histological or mtDNA abnormalities in muscles. 3) A common recessive pathogenic change A467T can also cause a mild dominant disease in heterozygote carriers. 4) The A467T variant shows reduced polymerase activity due to defective template binding. 5) Rare polyglutamine tract length variants of POLG1 are significantly enriched in Finnish idiopathic Parkinson s disease patients. 6) Dominant mutations are clearly restricted to the highly conserved polymerase domain motifs, whereas recessive ones are more evenly distributed along the protein. The present results highlight and confirm the new role of mitochondria in parkinsonism/Parkinson s disease and describe a new mitochondrial ataxia. Based on these results, a POLG1 diagnostic routine has been set up in Helsinki University Central Hospital (HUSLAB).