Contraception in Namibia : usage, methods and the impact of education

Användningen av preventivmedel har blivit en allt viktigare fraga i utvecklingsländerna idag, speciellt i Namibia dar fruktsamheten och HIV-prevalensen är höga. Kondomen är det enda allmänt tillgängliga preventivmedlet som skyddar mot könssjukdomar, medan ocksä injektioner, p-piller och andrà metoder kan användas för att förhindra graviditet. Användningen av preventivmedel har upptäckts korrelera med vissa sociodemografiska faktorer, bland annat utbildningsnivå och förmögenhet. Malet med denna undersökning var att studera användningen av preventivmedel, avsikter att använda preventivmedel samt kunskap om HIV/AIDS och andra könssjukdomar bland kvinnor i Namibia. Detta gjordes frän ett historiskt perspektiv genom att studerà användningsmönster frän 1990 till slutet av 2000-talet. Dessutom undersöktes sociodemografiska faktorers, speciellt utbildningens, inverkan på användningen av preventivmedel, likasä sambandet mellan skolningsnivå och preventivmedelsanvändning pä regionnivå. Undersökningen gjordes utgäende frän statistiska Namibia Demographic and Health Survey -material samlade 1992, 2000 och 2006-2007. Prevalenser och användningen av specifika metoder studerades skilt för olika bakgrundsvariabler 1992, 2000 och 2006-2007, och enligt utbildningsnivå och region är 2006-2007. Utbildning mattes skilt pä individ- och aggregatnivå. Sambandet mellan preventivmedelsanvändning och utbildning undersöktes med hjälp av logistisk regression, i vilken sociodemografiska bakgrundsfaktorer kontrollerades i sex modeller. Resultaten visade att användningen av preventivmedel har fördubblats sedan början av 1990-talet. Skillnader mellan kvinnor med olika utbildningsnivåer existerade redan i början av 1990-talet, likaså mellan olika yrkesgrupper. Undersökningen visade att högre utbildning ökar på reventivmedelsanvändningen, också då sociodemografisk bakgrundfaktorer, även utbildning och användning av preventivmedel på aggregatnivå, kontrollerades. Undersökningen antyder att utbildning på aggregatnivå inte ensam påverkar användningen av preventivmedel hos en individ. De sistnämnda resultaten var dock inte statistiskt signifikanta och kan inte generaliseras över namibiska kvinnor i allmänhet.

A modell of socially optimal hydro reservoir usage - yelding socially optimal outcomes in nordic electricity markets

An extensive electricity transmission network facilitates electricity trading between Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Currently most of the area's power generation is traded at NordPool, where the trading volumes have steadily increased since the early 1990's, when the exchange was founded. The Nordic electricity is expected to follow the current trend and further integrate with the other European electricity markets. Hydro power is the source for roughly a half of the supply in the Nordic electricity market and most of the hydro is generated in Norway. The dominating role of hydro power distinguishes the Nordic electricity market from most of the other market places. Production of hydro power varies mainly due to hydro reservoirs and demand for electricity. Hydro reservoirs are affected by water inflows that differ each year. The hydro reservoirs explain remarkably the behaviour of the Nordic electricity markets. Therefore among others, Kauppi and Liski (2008) have developed a model that analyzes the behaviour of the markets using hydro reservoirs as explanatory factors. Their model includes, for example, welfare loss due to socially suboptimal hydro reservoir usage, socially optimal electricity price, hydro reservoir storage and thermal reservoir storage; that are referred as outcomes. However, the model does not explain the real market condition but rather an ideal situation. In the model the market is controlled by one agent, i.e. one agent controls all the power generation reserves; it is referred to as a socially optimal strategy. Article by Kauppi and Liski (2008) includes an assumption where an individual agent has a certain fraction of market power, e.g. 20 % or 30 %. In order to maintain the focus of this thesis, this part of their paper is omitted. The goal of this thesis is two-fold. Firstly we expand the results from the socially optimal strategy for years 2006-08, as the earlier study finishes in 2005. The second objective is to improve on the methods from the previous study. This thesis results several outcomes (SPOT-price and welfare loss, etc.) due to socially optimal actions. Welfare loss is interesting as it describes the inefficiency of the market. SPOT-price is an important output for the market participants as it often has an effect on end users' electricity bills. Another function is to modify and try to improve the model by means of using more accurate input data, e.g. by considering pollution trade rights effect on input data. After modifications to the model, new welfare losses are calculated and compared with the same results before the modifications. The hydro reservoir has the higher explanatory significance in the model followed by thermal power. In Nordic markets, thermal power reserves are mostly nuclear power and other thermal sources (coal, natural gas, oil, peat). It can be argued that hydro and thermal reservoirs determine electricity supply. Roughly speaking, the model takes into account electricity demand and supply, and several parameters related to them (water inflow, oil price, etc.), yielding finally the socially optimal outcomes. The author of this thesis is not aware of any similar model being tested before. There have been some other studies that are close to the Kauppi and Liski (2008) model, but those have a somewhat different focus. For example, a specific feature in the model is the focus on long-run capacity usage that differs from the previous studies on short-run market power. The closest study to the model is from California's wholesale electricity markets that, however, uses different methodology. Work is constructed as follows.