Is a Majority Enough? Psychological Well-being and Its Relation to Academic and Prosocial Motivation, Self-regulation and Achievement at school

This cross-sectional study analyzed psychological well-being at school using the Self-Determination theory as a theoretical frame-work. The study explored basic psychological needs fulfillment (BPNS), academic (SRQ-A), prosocial self-regulation (SRQ-P) and motivation, and their relationship with achievement in general, special and selective education (N=786, 444 boys, 345 girls, mean age 12 yrs 8 mths). Motivation starts behavior which becomes guided by self-regulation. The perceived locus of control (PLOC) affects how self-determined this behavior will be; in other words, to what extent it is autonomously regulated. In order learn and thus to be able to accept external goals, a student has to feel emotionally safe and have sufficient ego-flexibility—all of which builds on satisfied psychological needs. In this study those conditions were explored. In addition to traditional methods Self-organizing maps (SOM), was used in order to cluster the students according to their well-being, self-regulation, motivation and achievement scores. The main impacts of this research were: a presentation of the theory based alternative of studying psychological well-being at school and usage of both the variable and person-oriented approach. In this Finnish sample the results showed that the majority of students felt well, but the well-being varied by group. Overall about for 11–15% the basic needs were deprived depending on the educational group. Age and educational group were the most effective factors; gender was important in relation to prosocial identified behavior. Although the person-oriented SOM-approach, was in a large extent confirming what was no-ticed by using comparison of the variables: the SEN groups had lower levels of basic needs fulfillment and less autonomous self-regulation, interesting deviations of that rule appeared. Some of the SEL- and GEN-group members ended up in the more unfavorable SOM-clusters, and not all SEN-group members belonged to the poorest clusters (although not to the best either). This evidence refines the well-being and self-regulation picture, and may re-direct intervention plans, and turn our focus also on students who might otherwise remain unnoticed. On the other hand, these results imply simultaneously that in special education groups the average is not the whole truth. On the basis of theoretical and empirical considerations an intervention model was sug-gested. The aim of the model was to shift amotivation or external motivation in a more intrinsic direction. According to the theoretical and empirical evidence this can be achieved first by studying the self-concept a student has, and then trying to affect both inner and environmental factors—including a consideration of the basic psychological needs. Keywords: academic self-regulation, prosocial self-regulation, basic psychological needs, moti-vation, achievement

Do Households Have Rational Expectations on Future Consumption? Evidence from the Finnish Consumer Survey

Ever since its initial introduction some fifty years ago, the rational expectations paradigm has dominated the way economic theory handles uncertainty. The main assertion made by John F. Muth (1961), seen by many as the father of the paradigm, is that expectations of rational economic agents should essentially be equal to the predictions of relevant economic theory, since rational agents should use information available to them in an optimal way. This assumption often has important consequences on the results and interpretations of the models where it is applied. Although the rational expectations assumption can be applied to virtually any economic theory, the focus in this thesis is on macroeconomic theories of consumption, especially the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis proposed by Robert E. Hall in 1978. The much-debated theory suggests that, assuming that agents have rational expectations on their future income, consumption decisions should follow a random walk, and the best forecast of future consumption level is the current consumption level. Then, changes in consumption are unforecastable. This thesis constructs an empirical test for the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis using Finnish Consumer Survey data as well as various Finnish macroeconomic data. The data sample covers the years 1995–2010. Consumer survey data may be interpreted to directly represent household expectations, which makes it an interesting tool for this particular test. The variable to be predicted is the growth of total household consumption expenditure. The main empirical result is that the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), a balance figure computed from the most important consumer survey responses, does have statistically significant predictive power over the change in total consumption expenditure. The history of consumption expenditure growth itself, however, fails to predict its own future values. This indicates that the CCI contains some information that the history of consumption decisions does not, and that the consumption decisions are not optimal in the theoretical context. However, when conditioned on various macroeconomic variables, the CCI loses its predictive ability. This finding suggests that the index is merely a (partial) summary of macroeconomic information, and does not contain any significant private information on consumption intentions of households not directly deductible from the objective economic variables. In conclusion, the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis is strongly rejected by the empirical results in this thesis. This result is in accordance with most earlier studies conducted on the topic.