Rayleigh-testi periodisuudesta: muinaisegyptiläinen ennustuskalenteri sarjana aikapisteitä

Työssä perehdytään "päivienvalikoimistekstien" analysointiin Rayleigh'n testillä. Näissä muinaisegyptiläisissä teksteissä päiville on annettu nk. prognoosi, joka on jokaisen päivän kolmelle osalle joko "hyvä" tai "huono". Analyysin tavoitteena on selvittää, olivatko hyvät ja huonot päivät jakautuneet satunnaisesti vai periodisesti vuoden aikana. Prognooseista löytyvä 29.5 päivän periodi, jolle saadaan huomattavan korkea merkitsevyys, viittaa Kuun synodisen jakson läsnäoloon kalenterissa. Löytyvistä periodeista 7.5 ja 30 ilmenee myös muinaisegyptiläisen siviilikalenterin vaikutus ennustuksiin. Aikasarjoista löydetään myös merkitseviä periodeja, joilla on mahdollisesti numerologinen merkitys. Periodi 2.85 viittaa mahdollisesti muinaisegyptiläiseen havaintoon Algol-tähdestä, joka on yksi tähtitieteen tunnetuimmista pimennysmuuttujista. Kyseessä voi siis olla historian vanhin tunnettu muuttuvan tähden periodin määritys.

What kind of data would ascertain real periodicity in the terrestrial impact crater record

Maan törmäyskraaterien ikäjakauman mahdollinen ajallinen jaksollisuus on herättänyt laajaa keskustelua sen jälkeen, kun ilmiö ensimmäistä kertaa raportoitiin joukossa arvostettuja tieteellisiä artikkeleita vuonna 1984. Vaikka nykytiedon valossa on kyseenalaista perustuuko havaittu jaksollisuus todelliseen fysikaaliseen ilmiöön, on kuitenkin mahdollista, että jaksollisuus on todella olemassa ja se voitaisiin havaita laajemmalla ja tarkemmalla törmäyskraateriaineistolla. Tutkimuksessa luotiin simuloidut kraaterien ajalliset tiheys- ja kertymäfunktiot tapauksille, jossa kraaterit syntyvät joko täysin jaksollisella tai satunnaisella prosessilla. Näiden kahden ääritapauksen lisäksi luotiin jakaumat myös kahdelle niiden yhdistelmälle. Nämä mallit mahdollistavat myös erilaisten kraaterien iänmäärityksen epätarkkuuksien huomioonottamisen. Näistä jakaumista luotiin eri pituisia simuloituja kraaterien ikien aikasarjoja. Lopulta simuloiduista aikasarjoista pyrittiin Rayleigh'n menetelmän avulla etsimään jakaumassa ollutta jaksollisuutta. Tutkimuksemme perusteella ajallisen jaksollisuuden havaitseminen kraateriaikasarjoista on lähes mahdotonta mikäli vain yksi kolmasosa kraatereista on jaksollisen ilmiön aiheuttamia, vaikka nykyistä kraateriaineistoa laajempi ja tarkempi aineisto olisi tulevaisuudessa saatavilla. Mikäli kaksi kolmasosaa meteoriittitörmäyksistä on jaksollisia, sen havaitseminen on mahdollista, mutta vaatii huomattavasti tämän hetkistä kattavamman kraateriaineiston. Tutkimuksen perusteella on syytä epäillä, että havaittu kraaterien ajallinen jaksollisuus ei ole todellinen ilmiö.

Two views on interstellar dust: near-infrared scattering and polarized thermal dust emission

Interstellar clouds are not featureless, but show quite complex internal structures of filaments and clumps when observed with high enough resolution. These structures have been generated by 1) turbulent motions driven mainly by supernovae, 2) magnetic fields working on the ions and, through neutral-ion collisions, on neutral gas as well, and 3) self-gravity pulling a dense clump together to form a new star. The study of the cloud structure gives us information on the relative importance of each of these mechanisms, and helps us to gain a better understanding of the details of the star formation process. Interstellar dust is often used as a tracer for the interstellar gas which forms the bulk of the interstellar matter. Some of the methods that are used to derive the column density are summarized in this thesis. A new method, which uses the scattered light to map the column density in large fields with high spatial resolution, is introduced. This thesis also takes a look at the grain alignment with respect to the magnetic fields. The aligned grains give rise to the polarization of starlight and dust emission, thus revealing the magnetic field. The alignment mechanisms have been debated for the last half century. The strongest candidate at present is the radiative torques mechanism. In the first four papers included in this thesis, the scattered light method of column density estimation is formulated, tested in simulations, and finally used to obtain a column density map from observations. They demonstrate that the scattered light method is a very useful and reliable tool in column density estimation, and is able to provide higher resolution than the near-infrared color excess method. These two methods are complementary. The derived column density maps are also used to gain information on the dust emissivity within the observed cloud. The two final papers present simulations of polarized thermal dust emission assuming that the alignment happens by the radiative torques mechanism. We show that the radiative torques can explain the observed decline of the polarization degree towards dense cores. Furthermore, the results indicate that the dense cores themselves might not contribute significantly to the polarized signal, and hence one needs to be careful when interpreting the observations and deriving the magnetic field.

Improving GPS time series for geodynamic studies

Accurate and stable time series of geodetic parameters can be used to help in understanding the dynamic Earth and its response to global change. The Global Positioning System, GPS, has proven to be invaluable in modern geodynamic studies. In Fennoscandia the first GPS networks were set up in 1993. These networks form the basis of the national reference frames in the area, but they also provide long and important time series for crustal deformation studies. These time series can be used, for example, to better constrain the ice history of the last ice age and the Earth s structure, via existing glacial isostatic adjustment models. To improve the accuracy and stability of the GPS time series, the possible nuisance parameters and error sources need to be minimized. We have analysed GPS time series to study two phenomena. First, we study the refraction in the neutral atmosphere of the GPS signal, and, second, we study the surface loading of the crust by environmental factors, namely the non-tidal Baltic Sea, atmospheric load and varying continental water reservoirs. We studied the atmospheric effects on the GPS time series by comparing the standard method to slant delays derived from a regional numerical weather model. We have presented a method for correcting the atmospheric delays at the observational level. The results show that both standard atmosphere modelling and the atmospheric delays derived from a numerical weather model by ray-tracing provide a stable solution. The advantage of the latter is that the number of unknowns used in the computation decreases and thus, the computation may become faster and more robust. The computation can also be done with any processing software that allows the atmospheric correction to be turned off. The crustal deformation due to loading was computed by convolving Green s functions with surface load data, that is to say, global hydrology models, global numerical weather models and a local model for the Baltic Sea. The result was that the loading factors can be seen in the GPS coordinate time series. Reducing the computed deformation from the vertical time series of GPS coordinates reduces the scatter of the time series; however, the long term trends are not influenced. We show that global hydrology models and the local sea surface can explain up to 30% of the GPS time series variation. On the other hand atmospheric loading admittance in the GPS time series is low, and different hydrological surface load models could not be validated in the present study. In order to be used for GPS corrections in the future, both atmospheric loading and hydrological models need further analysis and improvements.

Asteroid identification using statistical orbital inversion methods

An efficient and statistically robust solution for the identification of asteroids among numerous sets of astrometry is presented. In particular, numerical methods have been developed for the short-term identification of asteroids at discovery, and for the long-term identification of scarcely observed asteroids over apparitions, a task which has been lacking a robust method until now. The methods are based on the solid foundation of statistical orbital inversion properly taking into account the observational uncertainties, which allows for the detection of practically all correct identifications. Through the use of dimensionality-reduction techniques and efficient data structures, the exact methods have a loglinear, that is, O(nlog(n)), computational complexity, where n is the number of included observation sets. The methods developed are thus suitable for future large-scale surveys which anticipate a substantial increase in the astrometric data rate. Due to the discontinuous nature of asteroid astrometry, separate sets of astrometry must be linked to a common asteroid from the very first discovery detections onwards. The reason for the discontinuity in the observed positions is the rotation of the observer with the Earth as well as the motion of the asteroid and the observer about the Sun. Therefore, the aim of identification is to find a set of orbital elements that reproduce the observed positions with residuals similar to the inevitable observational uncertainty. Unless the astrometric observation sets are linked, the corresponding asteroid is eventually lost as the uncertainty of the predicted positions grows too large to allow successful follow-up. Whereas the presented identification theory and the numerical comparison algorithm are generally applicable, that is, also in fields other than astronomy (e.g., in the identification of space debris), the numerical methods developed for asteroid identification can immediately be applied to all objects on heliocentric orbits with negligible effects due to non-gravitational forces in the time frame of the analysis. The methods developed have been successfully applied to various identification problems. Simulations have shown that the methods developed are able to find virtually all correct linkages despite challenges such as numerous scarce observation sets, astrometric uncertainty, numerous objects confined to a limited region on the celestial sphere, long linking intervals, and substantial parallaxes. Tens of previously unknown main-belt asteroids have been identified with the short-term method in a preliminary study to locate asteroids among numerous unidentified sets of single-night astrometry of moving objects, and scarce astrometry obtained nearly simultaneously with Earth-based and space-based telescopes has been successfully linked despite a substantial parallax. Using the long-term method, thousands of realistic 3-linkages typically spanning several apparitions have so far been found among designated observation sets each spanning less than 48 hours.

Spectral states and accretion geometries in Galactic black hole binaries

Black hole X-ray binaries, binary systems where matter from a companion star is accreted by a stellar mass black hole, thereby releasing enormous amounts of gravitational energy converted into radiation, are seen as strong X-ray sources in the sky. As a black hole can only be detected via its interaction with its surroundings, these binary systems provide important evidence for the existence of black holes. There are now at least twenty cases where the measured mass of the X-ray emitting compact object in a binary exceeds the upper limit for a neutron star, thus inferring the presence of a black hole. These binary systems serve as excellent laboratories not only to study the physics of accretion but also to test predictions of general relativity in strongly curved space time. An understanding of the accretion flow onto these, the most compact objects in our Universe, is therefore of great importance to physics. We are only now slowly beginning to understand the spectra and variability observed in these X-ray sources. During the last decade, a framework has developed that provides an interpretation of the spectral evolution as a function of changes in the physics and geometry of the accretion flow driven by a variable accretion rate. This doctoral thesis presents studies of two black hole binary systems, Cygnus~X-1 and GRS~1915+105, plus the possible black hole candidate Cygnus~X-3, and the results from an attempt to interpret their observed properties within this emerging framework. The main result presented in this thesis is an interpretation of the spectral variability in the enigmatic source Cygnus~X-3, including the nature and accretion geometry of its so-called hard spectral state. The results suggest that the compact object in this source, which has not been uniquely identified as a black hole on the basis of standard mass measurements, is most probably a massive, ~30 Msun, black hole, and thus the most massive black hole observed in a binary in our Galaxy so far. In addition, results concerning a possible observation of limit-cycle variability in the microquasar GRS~1915+105 are presented as well as evidence of `mini-hysteresis' in the extreme hard state of Cygnus X-1.

Molecular line and continuum studies of the early stages of star formation

New stars form in dense interstellar clouds of gas and dust called molecular clouds. The actual sites where the process of star formation takes place are the dense clumps and cores deeply embedded in molecular clouds. The details of the star formation process are complex and not completely understood. Thus, determining the physical and chemical properties of molecular cloud cores is necessary for a better understanding of how stars are formed. Some of the main features of the origin of low-mass stars, like the Sun, are already relatively well-known, though many details of the process are still under debate. The mechanism through which high-mass stars form, on the other hand, is poorly understood. Although it is likely that the formation of high-mass stars shares many properties similar to those of low-mass stars, the very first steps of the evolutionary sequence are unclear. Observational studies of star formation are carried out particularly at infrared, submillimetre, millimetre, and radio wavelengths. Much of our knowledge about the early stages of star formation in our Milky Way galaxy is obtained through molecular spectral line and dust continuum observations. The continuum emission of cold dust is one of the best tracers of the column density of molecular hydrogen, the main constituent of molecular clouds. Consequently, dust continuum observations provide a powerful tool to map large portions across molecular clouds, and to identify the dense star-forming sites within them. Molecular line observations, on the other hand, provide information on the gas kinematics and temperature. Together, these two observational tools provide an efficient way to study the dense interstellar gas and the associated dust that form new stars. The properties of highly obscured young stars can be further examined through radio continuum observations at centimetre wavelengths. For example, radio continuum emission carries useful information on conditions in the protostar+disk interaction region where protostellar jets are launched. In this PhD thesis, we study the physical and chemical properties of dense clumps and cores in both low- and high-mass star-forming regions. The sources are mainly studied in a statistical sense, but also in more detail. In this way, we are able to examine the general characteristics of the early stages of star formation, cloud properties on large scales (such as fragmentation), and some of the initial conditions of the collapse process that leads to the formation of a star. The studies presented in this thesis are mainly based on molecular line and dust continuum observations. These are combined with archival observations at infrared wavelengths in order to study the protostellar content of the cloud cores. In addition, centimetre radio continuum emission from young stellar objects (YSOs; i.e., protostars and pre-main sequence stars) is studied in this thesis to determine their evolutionary stages. The main results of this thesis are as follows: i) filamentary and sheet-like molecular cloud structures, such as infrared dark clouds (IRDCs), are likely to be caused by supersonic turbulence but their fragmentation at the scale of cores could be due to gravo-thermal instability; ii) the core evolution in the Orion B9 star-forming region appears to be dynamic and the role played by slow ambipolar diffusion in the formation and collapse of the cores may not be significant; iii) the study of the R CrA star-forming region suggests that the centimetre radio emission properties of a YSO are likely to change with its evolutionary stage; iv) the IRDC G304.74+01.32 contains candidate high-mass starless cores which may represent the very first steps of high-mass star and star cluster formation; v) SiO outflow signatures are seen in several high-mass star-forming regions which suggest that high-mass stars form in a similar way as their low-mass counterparts, i.e., via disk accretion. The results presented in this thesis provide constraints on the initial conditions and early stages of both low- and high-mass star formation. In particular, this thesis presents several observational results on the early stages of clustered star formation, which is the dominant mode of star formation in our Galaxy.

Local numerical modelling of magnetoconvection and turbulence - implications for mean-field theories

During the last decades mean-field models, in which large-scale magnetic fields and differential rotation arise due to the interaction of rotation and small-scale turbulence, have been enormously successful in reproducing many of the observed features of the Sun. In the meantime, new observational techniques, most prominently helioseismology, have yielded invaluable information about the interior of the Sun. This new information, however, imposes strict conditions on mean-field models. Moreover, most of the present mean-field models depend on knowledge of the small-scale turbulent effects that give rise to the large-scale phenomena. In many mean-field models these effects are prescribed in ad hoc fashion due to the lack of this knowledge. With large enough computers it would be possible to solve the MHD equations numerically under stellar conditions. However, the problem is too large by several orders of magnitude for the present day and any foreseeable computers. In our view, a combination of mean-field modelling and local 3D calculations is a more fruitful approach. The large-scale structures are well described by global mean-field models, provided that the small-scale turbulent effects are adequately parameterized. The latter can be achieved by performing local calculations which allow a much higher spatial resolution than what can be achieved in direct global calculations. In the present dissertation three aspects of mean-field theories and models of stars are studied. Firstly, the basic assumptions of different mean-field theories are tested with calculations of isotropic turbulence and hydrodynamic, as well as magnetohydrodynamic, convection. Secondly, even if the mean-field theory is unable to give the required transport coefficients from first principles, it is in some cases possible to compute these coefficients from 3D numerical models in a parameter range that can be considered to describe the main physical effects in an adequately realistic manner. In the present study, the Reynolds stresses and turbulent heat transport, responsible for the generation of differential rotation, were determined along the mixing length relations describing convection in stellar structure models. Furthermore, the alpha-effect and magnetic pumping due to turbulent convection in the rapid rotation regime were studied. The third area of the present study is to apply the local results in mean-field models, which task we start to undertake by applying the results concerning the alpha-effect and turbulent pumping in mean-field models describing the solar dynamo.