An application of a physically based SOIL model to the Bowen ratio data

Yhteenveto: Haihdunnan mittaamisesta ja mallintamisesta peltoalueella

Fertility in Namibia : Changes in fertility levels in North-Central Namibia 1960-2001, including an assessment of the impact of HIV

The aim of this study was to estimate the development of fertility in North-Central Namibia, former Ovamboland, from 1960 to 2001. Special attention was given to the onset of fertility decline and to the impact of the HIV epidemic on fertility. An additional aim was to introduce parish registers as a source of data for fertility research in Africa. Data used consisted of parish registers from Evangelical Lutheran congregations, the 1991 and 2001 Population and Housing Censuses, the 1992 and 2000 Namibia Demographic and Health Surveys, and the HIV sentinel surveillances of 1992-2004. Both period and cohort fertility were analysed. The P/F ratio method was used when analysing census data. The impact of HIV infection on fertility was estimated indirectly by comparing the fertility histories of women who died at an age of less than 50 years with the fertility of other women. The impact of the HIV epidemic on fertility was assessed both among infected women and in the general population. Fertility in the study population began to decline in 1980. The decline was rapid during the 1980s, levelled off in the early 1990s at the end of war of independence and then continued to decline until the end of the study period. According to parish registers, total fertility was 6.4 in the 1960s and 6.5 in the 1970s, and declined to 5.1 in the 1980s and 4.2 in the 1990s. Adjustment of these total fertility rates to correspond to levels of fertility based on data from the 1991 and 2001 censuses resulted in total fertility declining from 7.6 in 1960-79 to 6.0 in 1980-89, and to 4.9 in 1990-99. The decline was associated with increased age at first marriage, declining marital fertility and increasing premarital fertility. Fertility among adolescents increased, whereas the fertility of women in all other age groups declined. During the 1980s, the war of independence contributed to declining fertility through spousal separation and delayed marriages. Contraception has been employed in the study region since the 1980s, but in the early 1990s, use of contraceptives was still so limited that fertility was higher in North-Central Namibia than in other regions of the country. In the 1990s, fertility decline was largely a result of the increased prevalence of contraception. HIV prevalence among pregnant women increased from 4% in 1992 to 25% in 2001. In 2001, total fertility among HIV-infected women (3.7) was lower than that among other women (4.8), resulting in total fertility of 4.4 among the general population in 2001. The HIV epidemic explained more than a quarter of the decline in total fertility at population level during most of the 1990s. The HIV epidemic also reduced the number of children born by reducing the number of potential mothers. In the future, HIV will have an extensive influence on both the size and age structure of the Namibian population. Although HIV influences demographic development through both fertility and mortality, the effect through changes in fertility will be smaller than the effect through mortality. In the study region, as in some other regions of southern Africa, a new type of demographic transition is under way, one in which population growth stagnates or even reverses because of the combined effects of declining fertility and increasing mortality, both of which are consequences of the HIV pandemic.

Open Access to Scientific Publications – An Analysis of the Barriers to Change?

One of the effects of the Internet is that the dissemination of scientific publications in a few years has migrated to electronic formats. The basic business practices between libraries and publishers for selling and buying the content, however, have not changed much. In protest against the high subscription prices of mainstream publishers, scientists have started Open Access (OA) journals and e-print repositories, which distribute scientific information freely. Despite widespread agreement among academics that OA would be the optimal distribution mode for publicly financed research results, such channels still constitute only a marginal phenomenon in the global scholarly communication system. This paper discusses, in view of the experiences of the last ten years, the many barriers hindering a rapid proliferation of Open Access. The discussion is structured according to the main OA channels; peer-reviewed journals for primary publishing, subject- specific and institutional repositories for secondary parallel publishing. It also discusses the types of barriers, which can be classified as consisting of the legal framework, the information technology infrastructure, business models, indexing services and standards, the academic reward system, marketing, and critical mass.

Evaluating the Predictability of the Volatility Smile Using Return Distributions

In this paper, we examine the predictability of observed volatility smiles in three major European index options markets, utilising the historical return distributions of the respective underlying assets. The analysis involves an application of the Black (1976) pricing model adjusted in accordance with the Jarrow-Rudd methodology as proposed in 1982. Thereby we adjust the expected future returns for the third and fourth central moments as these represent deviations from normality in the distributions of observed returns. Thus, they are considered one possible explanation to the existence of the smile. The obtained results indicate that the inclusion of the higher moments in the pricing model to some extent reduces the volatility smile, compared with the unadjusted Black-76 model. However, as the smile is partly a function of supply, demand, and liquidity, and as such intricate to model, this modification does not appear sufficient to fully capture the characteristics of the smile.

A Curious Harpour in Helle : An Edition of the Commentary on the Orpheus Metre of De consolatione philosophiae in MS Thott 304,2

Tutkielmani on tekstieditio keskiaikaisesta kommentaarista, joka löytyy Kööpenhaminan Kuninkaallisen kirjaston käsikirjoituksesta Thott 304,2. Käsikirjoitus voidaan ajoittaa 1400-luvun ensimmäiselle neljännekselle ja se on kirjoitettu keskienglanniksi. Se sisältää John Waltonin runomuotoisen käännöksen Boethiuksen 500-luvun alussa latinaksi kirjoittamasta teoksesta De consolatione philosophiae (Filosofian lohdutus) sekä teosta kommentoivan proosamuotoisen kommentaarin. Käsikirjoitus on vaillinainen, mutta sen säilyneet foliot ovat enimmäkseen erittäin hyväkuntoisia. Itse käsikirjoitusta on tutkittu vain muutamissa artikkeleissa ja yhdessä tutkielmassa; kommentaarista ei ole toistaiseksi tehty kattavaa tutkimusta. Tavoitteeni onkin tuoda kommentaari keskiaikaisen filosofian, keskienglannin ja käsikirjoitusten tutkijoiden käytettäviin. Käsikirjoitus Thott 304,2 on esimerkki epätyypillisestä myöhäiskeskiaikaisesta maallikkomesenaattiudesta Englannissa. Tavanmukaisesti maallikkomesenaatit tukivat uskonnollisten tekstien tuottamista ja kääntämistä, kun taas Thott 304,2 sisältää käännöksen filosofisesta tekstistä. Sen lisäksi mesenaatti oli nainen, aatelistoon kuuluva Elizabeth Berkeley. Varsin harvinaiseksi käsikirjoituksen tekee sen painaminen kirjaksi 1500-luvun alussa. Kirjanpainajan käsikirjoituksen sivuille tekemistä merkinnöistä saadaan korvaamatonta tietoa varhaisesta painotekniikasta, sillä kirjanpainajien käyttämiä käsikirjoituskopioita ei ole säilynyt kovin runsaasti. Waltonin käännös on säilynyt yli kahdessakymmenessä käsikirjoituskopiossa, joista vain Thott 304,2 sisältää laajan kommentaarin. 1500-luvun painoksesta on jäljellä kolme kopiota, ja ne sisältävät saman kommentaarin kuin Thott 304,2. Valitsin editoitavaksi niin kutsuttua Orfeus-runoa kommentoivan osan kommentaarista, sillä se muodostaa ehjän kokonaisuuden ja sopii pituutensa puolesta Pro gradu -tutkielmaan. Orfeus-runo on myös yksi käsikirjoituksen kattavimmin kommentoiduista runoista. Editio on niin sanottu diplomaattinen transkriptio, jossa käsikirjoituksen piirteet on pyritty säilyttämään mahdollisimman tarkasti edition luettavuuden siitä kuitenkaan kärsimättä. Perinteisistä editioista poiketen tutkielmani sisältää myös kommentaarin ja Orfeus-runon transkriptiot, joissa rivijako, lyhenteet ja erikoismerkit on säilytetty. Näiden transkriptioiden toivon auttavan erityisesti käsikirjoituksessa esiintyvien lyhenteiden, erikoismerkkien ja kirjanpainajan merkintöjen tulkinnassa ja tutkimisessa. Editiota ja transkriptioita täydentävät nykyenglanniksi kirjoitettu lyhennelmä kommentaarista ja kuvat käsikirjoituksen sivuista, joilla editoimani kommentaari on. Tutkielmaan sisältyy alkuperäisen tekstin, käännöksen, kommentaarin ja käsikirjoituksen taustaa valottava osuus. Esittelen myös kaikki löytämäni lähteet, joissa käsikirjoitus on mainittu tai joissa sitä on tutkittu. Liitteeksi olen laatinut sanaston helpottamaan kommentaarin tulkitsemista.

Population projection for Namibia 2011-2020 - With an estimation of the impact of HIV/AIDS

This study presents a population projection for Namibia for years 2011–2020. In many countries of sub-Saharan Africa, including Namibia, the population growth is still continuing even though the fertility rates have declined. However, many of these countries suffer from a large HIV epidemic that is slowing down the population growth. In Namibia, the epidemic has been severe. Therefore, it is important to assess the effect of HIV/AIDS on the population of Namibia in the future. Demographic research on Namibia has not been very extensive, and data on population is not widely available. According to the studies made, fertility has been shown to be generally declining and mortality has been significantly increasing due to AIDS. Previous population projections predict population growth for Namibia in the near future, yet HIV/AIDS is affecting the future population developments. For the projection constructed in this study, data on population is taken from the two most recent censuses, from 1991 and 2001. Data on HIV is available from HIV Sentinel Surveys 1992–2008, which test pregnant women for HIV in antenatal clinics. Additional data are collected from different sources and recent studies. The projection is made with software (EPP and Spectrum) specially designed for developing countries with scarce data. The projection includes two main scenarios which have different assumptions concerning the development of the HIV epidemic. In addition, two hypothetical scenarios are made: the first considering the case where HIV epidemic would never have existed and the second considering the case where HIV treatment would never have existed. The results indicate population growth for Namibia. Population in the 2001 census was 1.83 million and is projected to result in 2.38/2.39 million in 2020 in the first two scenarios. Without HIV, population would be 2.61 million and without treatment 2.30 million in 2020. Urban population is growing faster than rural. Even though AIDS is increasing mortality, the past high fertility rates still keep young adult age groups quite large. The HIV epidemic shows to be slowing down, but it is still increasing the mortality of the working-aged population. The initiation of HIV treatment in 2004 in the public sector seems to have had an effect on many projected indicators, diminishing the impact of HIV on the population. For example, the rise of mortality is slowing down.

An Analysis of the Concept of Citizenship: Legal, Political and Social Dimensions

The thesis aims at analyzing concept of citizenship in political philosophy. The concept of citizenship is a complex one: it does not have a definitive explication, but it nevertheless is a very important category in contemporary world. Citizenship is a powerful ideal, and often the way a person is treated depends on whether he or she has the status of a citizen. Citizenship includes protection of a person’s rights both at home and abroad. It entails legal, political and social dimension: the legal status as a full member of society, the recognition of that status by fellow citizens and acting as a member of society. The thesis discusses these three dimensions. Its objective is to show how all of them, despite being insufficient in some aspects, reach something important about the concept. The main sources of the thesis are Civic Republicanism by Iseult Honohan (Routledge 2002), Republicanism by Philip Pettit (Clarendon Press 1997), and Taking Rights Seriously by Ronald Dworkin (1997). In addition, the historical part of the thesis relies mainly on the works of Aristotle, Immanuel Kant, Adam Smith, Quentin Skinner, James Pocock and James Tully. The writings of Will Kymlicka, John Rawls, Chantal Mouffe, and Shane Phelan are referred to in the presentation and critique of the liberal tradition of thought. Hannah Arendt and Seyla Benhabib’s analysis of Arendt’s philosophy both address the problematic relations between human rights and nation-states as the main guarantors of rights. The chapter on group rights relies on Peter Jones’ account of corporate and collective rights, after which I continue to Seumas Miller’s essay on the (liberal) account of group rights and their relation to the concept of citizenship. Republicanism and Political Theory (2002) edited by Cécile Laborde and John Maynor is also references. David Miller and Maurizio Viroli represent the more “rooted” version of republicanism. The thesis argues that the full concept of citizenship should be seen as containing legal, political and social dimensions. The concept can be viewed from all of these three angles. The first means that citizenship is connected with certain rights, like the right to vote or stand for election, the right to property and so on. In most societies, the law guarantees these rights to every citizen. Then there is also the social dimension, which can be said to be as important as the legal one: the recognition of equality and identities of others. Finally, there is the political dimension, meaning the importance of citizens’ participation in the society, which is discussed in connection with the contemporary account of republicanism. All these issues are discussed from the point of view of groups demanding for group-specific rights and equal recognition. The challenge with these three aspects of citizenship is, however, that they are difficult to discuss under one heading. Different theories or discourses of citizenship each approach the subject from different starting points, which make reconciling them sometimes hard. The fundamental questions theories try to answer may differ radically depending on the theory. Nevertheless, in order to get the whole image of what the citizenship discourses are about all the aspects deserve to be taken into account.