An approach to palaeoseismicity in the Olkiluoto (sea) area during the early Holocene

Olkiluoto Island is situated in the northern Baltic Sea, near the southwestern coast of Finland, and is the proposed location of a spent nuclear fuel repository. This study examined Holocene palaeoseismicity in the Olkiluoto area and in the surrounding sea areas by computer simulations together with acoustic-seismic, sedimentological and dating methods. The most abundant rock type on the island is migmatic mica gneiss, intruded by tonalites, granodiorites and granites. The surrounding Baltic Sea seabed consists of Palaeoproterozoic crystalline bedrock, which is to a great extent covered by younger Mesoproterozoic sedimentary rocks. The area contains several ancient deep-seated fracture zones that divide it into bedrock blocks. The response of bedrock at the Olkiluoto site was modelled considering four future ice-age scenarios. Each scenario produced shear displacements of fractures with different times of occurrence and varying recovery rates. Generally, the larger the maximum ice load, the larger were the permanent shear displacements. For a basic case, the maximum shear displacements were a few centimetres at the proposed nuclear waste repository level, at proximately 500 m b.s.l. High-resolution, low-frequency echo-sounding was used to examine the Holocene submarine sedimentary structures and possible direct and indirect indicators of palaeoseismic activity in the northern Baltic Sea. Echo-sounding profiles of Holocene submarine sediments revealed slides and slumps, normal faults, debris flows and turbidite-type structures. The profiles also showed pockmarks and other structures related to gas or groundwater seepages, which might be related to fracture zone activation. Evidence of postglacial reactivation in the study area was derived from the spatial occurrence of some of the structures, especial the faults and the seepages, in the vicinity of some old bedrock fracture zones. Palaeoseismic event(s) (a single or several events) in the Olkiluoto area were dated and the palaeoenvironment was characterized using palaeomagnetic, biostratigraphical and lithostratigraphical methods, enhancing the reliability of the chronology. Combined lithostratigraphy, biostratigraphy and palaeomagnetic stratigraphy revealed an age estimation of 10 650 to 10 200 cal. years BP for the palaeoseismic event(s). All Holocene sediment faults in the northern Baltic Sea occur at the same stratigraphical level, the age of which is estimated at 10 700 cal. years BP (9500 radiocarbon years BP). Their movement is suggested to have been triggered by palaeoseismic event(s) when the Late Weichselian ice sheet was retreating from the site and bedrock stresses were released along the bedrock fracture zones. Since no younger or repeated traces of seismic events were found, it corroborates the suggestion that the major seismic activity occurred within a short time during and after the last deglaciation. The origin of the gas/groundwater seepages remains unclear. Their reflections in the echo-sounding profiles imply that part of the gas is derived from the organic-bearing Litorina and modern gyttja clays. However, at least some of the gas is derived from the bedrock. Additional information could be gained by pore water analysis from the pockmarks. Information on postglacial fault activation and possible gas and/or fluid discharges under high hydraulic heads has relevance in evaluating the safety assessment of a planned spent nuclear fuel repository in the region.

From a tree to a stand in Finnish boreal forests: biomass estimation and comparison of methods

There is an increasing need to compare the results obtained with different methods of estimation of tree biomass in order to reduce the uncertainty in the assessment of forest biomass carbon. In this study, tree biomass was investigated in a 30-year-old Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) (Young-Stand) and a 130-year-old mixed Norway spruce (Picea abies)-Scots pine stand (Mature-Stand) located in southern Finland (61º50' N, 24º22' E). In particular, a comparison of the results of different estimation methods was conducted to assess the reliability and suitability of their applications. For the trees in Mature-Stand, annual stem biomass increment fluctuated following a sigmoid equation, and the fitting curves reached a maximum level (from about 1 kg/yr for understorey spruce to 7 kg/yr for dominant pine) when the trees were 100 years old. Tree biomass was estimated to be about 70 Mg/ha in Young-Stand and about 220 Mg/ha in Mature-Stand. In the region (58.00-62.13 ºN, 14-34 ºE, ≤ 300 m a.s.l.) surrounding the study stands, the tree biomass accumulation in Norway spruce and Scots pine stands followed a sigmoid equation with stand age, with a maximum of 230 Mg/ha at the age of 140 years. In Mature-Stand, lichen biomass on the trees was 1.63 Mg/ha with more than half of the biomass occurring on dead branches, and the standing crop of litter lichen on the ground was about 0.09 Mg/ha. There were substantial differences among the results estimated by different methods in the stands. These results imply that a possible estimation error should be taken into account when calculating tree biomass in a stand with an indirect approach.

Population projection for Namibia 2011-2020 - With an estimation of the impact of HIV/AIDS

This study presents a population projection for Namibia for years 2011–2020. In many countries of sub-Saharan Africa, including Namibia, the population growth is still continuing even though the fertility rates have declined. However, many of these countries suffer from a large HIV epidemic that is slowing down the population growth. In Namibia, the epidemic has been severe. Therefore, it is important to assess the effect of HIV/AIDS on the population of Namibia in the future. Demographic research on Namibia has not been very extensive, and data on population is not widely available. According to the studies made, fertility has been shown to be generally declining and mortality has been significantly increasing due to AIDS. Previous population projections predict population growth for Namibia in the near future, yet HIV/AIDS is affecting the future population developments. For the projection constructed in this study, data on population is taken from the two most recent censuses, from 1991 and 2001. Data on HIV is available from HIV Sentinel Surveys 1992–2008, which test pregnant women for HIV in antenatal clinics. Additional data are collected from different sources and recent studies. The projection is made with software (EPP and Spectrum) specially designed for developing countries with scarce data. The projection includes two main scenarios which have different assumptions concerning the development of the HIV epidemic. In addition, two hypothetical scenarios are made: the first considering the case where HIV epidemic would never have existed and the second considering the case where HIV treatment would never have existed. The results indicate population growth for Namibia. Population in the 2001 census was 1.83 million and is projected to result in 2.38/2.39 million in 2020 in the first two scenarios. Without HIV, population would be 2.61 million and without treatment 2.30 million in 2020. Urban population is growing faster than rural. Even though AIDS is increasing mortality, the past high fertility rates still keep young adult age groups quite large. The HIV epidemic shows to be slowing down, but it is still increasing the mortality of the working-aged population. The initiation of HIV treatment in 2004 in the public sector seems to have had an effect on many projected indicators, diminishing the impact of HIV on the population. For example, the rise of mortality is slowing down.

Archaeology of wings : Birds and people in the Baltic Sea region during the Stone Age

The prominent roles of birds, often mentioned in historical sources, are not well reflected in archaeological research. Absence or scarcity of bird bones in archaeological assemblages has been often seen as indication of a minor role of birds in the prehistoric economy or ideology, or explained by taphonomic loss. Few studies exist where birds form the basis for extensive archaeological interpretation. In this doctoral dissertation bird bone material from various Stone Age sites in the Baltic Sea region is investigated. The study period is approximately 7000-3400 BP, comprising mainly Neolithic cultures. The settlement material comes from Finland, Åland, Gotland, Saaremaa and Hiiumaa. Osteological materials are used for studying the economic and cultural importance of birds, fowling methods and principal fowling seasons. The bones were identified and earlier identifications partially checked with help of a reference material of modern skeletons. Fracture analysis was used in order to study the deposition history of bones at Ajvide settlement site. Birds in burials at two large cemeteries, Ajvide on Gotland and Zvejnieki in northern Latvia were investigated in order to study the roles of birds in burial practices. My study reveals that the economic importance of birds is at least seasonally often more prominent than usually thought, and varies greatly in different areas. Fowling has been most important in coastal areas, and especially during the breeding season. Waterbirds and grouse species were generally the most important groups in Finnish Stone Age economy. The identified species composition shows much resemblance to contemporary hunting with species such as the mallard and capercaillie commonly found. Burial materials and additional archaeological evidence from Gotland, Latvia and some other parts of northern Europe indicate that birds –e.g., jay, whooper swan, ducks – have been socially and ideologically important for the studied groups (indicating a place in the belief system, e.g. clan totemism). The burial finds indicate that some common ideas about waterbirds (perhaps as messengers or spirit helpers) might have existed in the northern European Stone Age.

Death, Destruction and Commemoration : Tracing ritual activities in Finnish Late Iron Age cemeteries (AD 550-1150)

The thesis is connected with death, memory and ancestor commemoration during the Merovingian Period, the Viking Age and the beginning of the Crusade Period (AD 550-1150) in Finland. During this time, cremation was the dominant burial rite. It was not until the end of the Viking Age that inhumation became more common but both cremations and inhumations are performed even at the same sites throughout the time. Three different burial types 1) cremation cemeteries below level ground, 2) inhumation burials and 3) water burials are discussed in five articles. I consider these burial forms from three different viewpoints; collectivity-individuality, visibility-invisibility and cremation-inhumation. The thesis also discusses the topics of memory, memorialisation and monument re-use, which have been neglected subjects in Finnish archaeology until now. Both cremation cemeteries below level ground and inhumation burials have been re-used during their time of usage, and on most occasions are situated in a landscape that is overlaid by other monuments as well. The main questions of the thesis are: What kinds of ritual behaviour can we detect in the burials during the period (AD 550-1150)? How did people perceive the moraine hills that functioned as burial places? What kind of re-use can be detected in the Iron Age cemeteries? Why have ancient sites and artefacts been re-used? This thesis shows that it is possible to claim that both artefact and site re-use is a much more widespread phenomenon than has previously been thought in Finnish archaeology. It is also a conscious and deliberate behaviour that can be related to an ancestor cult and commemoration of the dead. The funerary rituals during this time period show great variation and complex, both regionally and nationally. Not only have the dead been buried using elaborate rituals, they have also been mourned and commemorated in intricate ways that proves that death was not an end product, but the start of something new.

Lithics after Stone Age in East Africa : Wadh Lang'o case study

Tutkielmassa käsitellään kiviesineiden käytön jatkumista kivikauden jälkeen Itä-Afrikassa. Rautakauden alku Itä- ja Etelä-Afrikassa liitetään perinteisesti bantuheimojen migraatioon näille alueille. Tämä vallitseva teoria otettiin tässä tutkimuksessa lähtökohdaksi. Afrikasta tunnetaan runsaasti sekä etnografisia että arkeologisia esimerkkejä kiviteknologian säilymisestä paikoin 1900-luvun loppupuolelle. Nämä liittyvät usein perimätiedon perusteella "kivikautisten" metsästäjä-keräilijöiden ja rautakautisten maanviljelijä- ja karjanhoitajayhteisöjen rinnakkaiseloon. Tutkimuskysymystä lähestytään sekä julkaistun että primääriaineiston kautta. Alussa esitellään kirjallisuudesta löytyviä esimerkkejä myöhäisestä kiviesineiden käytöstä, minkä jälkeen käydään tarkemmin läpi Malawin alueelta julkaistu aiheeseen liitettävissä oleva arkeologinen aineisto. Tätä käytetään vertailuaineistona tutkimuksen pääasiallista tapaustutkimusta käsiteltäessä. Pääasiallisena tapaustutkimuksena toimii Viktoria-järven läheisyydessä sijaitsevan Wadh Lang'o:n asuinpaikan kiviesineistön analyysi. Wadh Lang'o:sta tunnetaan pitkä kulttuurisekvenssi, joka kattaa alueen myöhäiskivikautiset ja rautakautiset kulttuurivaiheet. Stratigrafisen aineiston perusteella kiviesineet ovat säilyneet asuinpaikalla käytössä ainakin keskisen rautakauden alkuun. Varhaisimmassa vaiheessa asuinpaikkaa on asuttanut Oltome-kulttuuriin kuuluva väestö. Suurimmat muutokset materiaalisessa kulttuurissa analyysin kattamana aikana ovat aiheutuneet seuraavan kulttuurivaiheen, Elmenteitan-kulttuurin, myötä. Kiviesineistön perusteella Elmenteitan-keramiikan ilmaantuminen asuinpaikalle on liitettävissä idästäpäin Itä-Afrikan hautavajoaman suunnalta tapahtuneeseen migraatioon. Jatkuvuuden puolesta puhuvat esimerkiksi tehdyt kiviraaka-aine valinnat. Vaikuttaa, että edeltänyt Oltome-keraaminen väestö on säilyttänyt vaikutuksensa asuinpaikalla vielä tänäkin aikana. Varhaisrautakautisen Urewe-keramiikan ilmestymiseen asuinpaikalle ei näyttäisi olevan liitettävissä mitään suurisuuntaista migraatiota, toisin kuin vallalla oleva teoria bantumigraatiosta antaisi olettaa. Mahdollisesti uusi keramiikka on omaksuttu spesialistien, esimerkiksi seppien, muuton myötä tai vaeltavien kauppiaiden vaikutuksesta. Kiviesineistö osoittaa jatkuvuutta esimerkiksi mikroliittien morfologisten piirteiden ja käytettyjen raaka-aineiden perusteella. Mahdollisesti Elmenteitan-kulttuurin karjanhoitoa harjoittanut väestö on kyennyt estämään bantusiirtolaisten muuton alueelleen. Rauta ei vaikuta olleen asuinpaikalla missään vaiheessa erityisen yleistä, eikä paikalta tunneta merkkejä raudanvalmistuksesta. Tutkielman lopussa esitellään kaksi vaihtoehtoista mallia, joiden pohjalta myöhäinen kiviesineiden käyttö voisi selittyä. Niistä ensimmäinen perustuu konventinaaliseen käsitykseen, jossa rautakauden alku nähdään bantumigraation seurauksena. Toinen malli perustuu varhaisrautakautisten kulttuuripiirteiden leviämiseen diffuusion avulla. Wadh Lang'o:n tapaustutkimus näyttäisi puhuvan diffuusion puolesta, mutta toisilla alueilla, esimerkiksi Malawissa, migraatio vaikuttaa olevan todennäköisin selitysmalli. Avainsanat: arkeologia, kiviteknologia, Itä-Afrikka, Oltome, Elmenteitan, Urewe, bantumigraatio, myöhäiskivikausi, rautakausi

Statistical analysis of the associations of hereditary factors with the risk of Type 1 diabetes and Diabetic Nephropathy based on the familial data collected through ascertaiment from population-based registers

In genetic epidemiology, population-based disease registries are commonly used to collect genotype or other risk factor information concerning affected subjects and their relatives. This work presents two new approaches for the statistical inference of ascertained data: a conditional and full likelihood approaches for the disease with variable age at onset phenotype using familial data obtained from population-based registry of incident cases. The aim is to obtain statistically reliable estimates of the general population parameters. The statistical analysis of familial data with variable age at onset becomes more complicated when some of the study subjects are non-susceptible, that is to say these subjects never get the disease. A statistical model for a variable age at onset with long-term survivors is proposed for studies of familial aggregation, using latent variable approach, as well as for prospective studies of genetic association studies with candidate genes. In addition, we explore the possibility of a genetic explanation of the observed increase in the incidence of Type 1 diabetes (T1D) in Finland in recent decades and the hypothesis of non-Mendelian transmission of T1D associated genes. Both classical and Bayesian statistical inference were used in the modelling and estimation. Despite the fact that this work contains five studies with different statistical models, they all concern data obtained from nationwide registries of T1D and genetics of T1D. In the analyses of T1D data, non-Mendelian transmission of T1D susceptibility alleles was not observed. In addition, non-Mendelian transmission of T1D susceptibility genes did not make a plausible explanation for the increase in T1D incidence in Finland. Instead, the Human Leucocyte Antigen associations with T1D were confirmed in the population-based analysis, which combines T1D registry information, reference sample of healthy subjects and birth cohort information of the Finnish population. Finally, a substantial familial variation in the susceptibility of T1D nephropathy was observed. The presented studies show the benefits of sophisticated statistical modelling to explore risk factors for complex diseases.

Stroke and coronary heart disease in relation to hyperglycemia gender and age

This study was carried out to compare the fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and 2-h plasma glucose (2-h PG) criteria for diabetes with regard to their relation to stroke mortality and the incidence of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke. In addition, the age-and gender difference in the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke and their relation with known cardiovascular disease risk factors and diabetes mellitus was examined. The study was a sub-data analysis of the Diabetes Epidemiology: Collaborative analysis Of Diagnostic criteria in Europe (DECODE) study including 25 181 individuals, 11 844 (47%) men and 13 345 (53%) women aged 25 to 90 years, from 14 European cohorts. In individuals without a history of diabetes elevated 2-h post-challenge glucose was a better predictor of stroke mortality than elevated fasting glucose in men, whereas the latter was better than the former in women. Elevated FPG and 2-h PG levels were associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke incidence. 2-h PG contributed to the risk more strongly than FPG. No relationship between hyperglycemia and the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was found. The risk of CHD and ischemic stroke incidence increased with age in both genders, but was higher in all age groups in men than in women. The gender difference was, however, more marked for CHD than for ischemic stroke. Age, smoking and diabetes contributed to the development of both CHD and ischemic stroke. Elevated cholesterol levels predicted CHD only, whereas elevated blood pressure was a risk predictor for the incidence of ischemic stroke. The CHD and ischemic stroke risk was higher in men than in women with and without diabetes, however, the gender difference diminished for CHD but enlarged for ischemic stroke in diabetic individuals. The known risk factors including diabetes contributed differently to the risk of CHD and ischemic stroke in women and in men. Hyperglycemia defined by FPG or 2-h PG increases the risk of ischemic stroke in individuals without diabetes. FPG better predicts stroke mortality in women and 2-h PG in men. The risk of acute CHD and ischemic stroke is higher in men than in women in all ages, but such gender difference is more marked for CHD than for ischemic stroke. CHD risk is higher in men than in women, but the difference is reduced in diabetic population. Diabetes, however, increases stroke risk more in men than in women in all ages.

The role of AIP and CDKN1B/p27Kip1 in endocrine neoplasia

Identification of genes predisposing to tumor syndromes has raised general awareness of tumorigenesis. Genetic testing of tumor susceptibility genes aids the recognition of individuals at increased risk of tumors. Identification of novel predisposing genes enables further studies concerning the classification of potential associated tumors and the definition of target patient group. Pituitary adenomas are common, benign neoplasms accounting for approximately 15% of all intracranial tumors. Accurate incidence estimation is challenging since a great portion of these adenomas are small and asymptomatic. Clinically relevant adenomas, that cause symptoms due to the expansion of the cell mass or the over-secretion of normally produced hormones, occur in approximately one of 1 000 individuals. Although the majority of pituitary adenomas are sporadic, a minority occur as components of familial syndromes, such as Multiple Endocrine Neoplasia type 1 (MEN1) and Carney complex (CNC). MEN1 syndrome is caused by germ-line mutations in the MEN1 gene, whereas most of the CNC patients carry the mutated protein kinase A (PKA) regulatory subunit-1-α (PRKAR1A) gene. Recently, other conditions predisposing to endocrine tumors have been identified: Pituitary Adenoma Predisposition (PAP) and MEN type 4 (MEN4). PAP was originally identified in a genetically homogeneous Finnish population. In a population based cohort from Northern Finland, aryl hydrocarbon receptor-interacting protein (AIP) gene mutations were found in 16% of all patients diagnosed with growth hormone (GH) producing pituitary adenoma, and in 40% of the subset of patients who were diagnosed under the age of 35 years. Since AIP mutations were originally described in a defined, homogeneous population from Northern Finland, it was relevant to study whether mutations also occur in more heterogeneous populations. In patient cohorts with different ethnic origins and variable clinical phenotypes, germ-line AIP mutations were detectable at low frequencies (range 0.8-7.4%). AIP mutation-positive patients were often diagnosed with a GH-producing adenoma at a young age, and usually had no family history of endocrine tumors. The low frequency of AIP mutations in randomly selected patients, and the lack of any family history of pituitary adenomas create a challenge for the identification of PAP patients. Our preliminary study suggests that AIP immunohistochemistry may serve as a pre-screening tool to distinguish between the AIP mutation-negative and the mutation-positive tumors. Tumors of various endocrine glands are components of MEN1 and CNC syndromes. Somatic MEN1 and PRKAR1A mutations in sporadic pituitary adenomas are rare, but occur in some of the other tumors related to these syndromes. The role of AIP mutations in endocrine neoplasia was studied and our results indicated that somatic AIP mutations are rare or non-existent in sporadic tumors of endocrine glands (0 of 111). Furthermore, germ-line AIP mutations in prolactin producing adenomas (2 of 9) confirmed the role of this pituitary tumor type in the PAP phenotype. Thyroid disorders are common in the general population, and the majority of them are sporadic. Interestingly, it has been suggested that thyroid disorders might be more common in PAP families. For this reason we studied germ-line AIP mutations in 93 index cases from familial non-medullary thyroid cancer (NMTC) families. The underlying gene or genes for familial NMTC have not been identified yet. None of the patients had any potentially pathogenic AIP mutation. This suggests that AIP is unlikely to play a role in familial NMTCs. A novel multiple endocrine syndrome was originally described in rats with phenotypic features of human MEN type 1 and 2. Germ-line mutations of cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor 1B (CDKN1B also known as p27Kip1) gene were reported later in these rats and a germ-line mutation was also identified in one human family with MEN1-like phenotype (later named MEN4). To confirm the importance of this gene’s mutations in humans, we performed a mutation screening in MEN-like patients and in patients with pituitary adenoma. Our results indicate that CDKN1B/p27Kip1 mutations appear in a small portion of MEN1-like patients (one of 36), and that such mutations are rare or non-existent in both familial (0 of 19) and sporadic pituitary adenoma patients (0 of 50). In conclusion, this work strengthens the tumor susceptibility role of AIP and CDKN1B/p27Kip1 in endocrine neoplasia. Clarifying the PAP phenotype facilitates the identification of potential AIP mutation carriers. Genetic counseling can be offered to the relatives and follow-up of the mutation carriers can be organized, hence an earlier diagnosis is feasible.