Essays on the Bioeconomics of the Northern Baltic Fisheries

World marine fisheries suffer from economic and biological overfishing: too many vessels are harvesting too few fish stocks. Fisheries economics has explained the causes of overfishing and provided a theoretical background for management systems capable of solving the problem. Yet only a few examples of fisheries managed by the principles of the bioeconomic theory exist. With the aim of bridging the gap between the actual fish stock assessment models used to provide management advice and economic optimisation models, the thesis explores economically sound harvesting from national and international perspectives. Using data calibrated for the Baltic salmon and herring stocks, optimal harvesting policies are outlined using numerical methods. First, the thesis focuses on the socially optimal harvest of a single salmon stock by commercial and recreational fisheries. The results obtained using dynamic programming show that the optimal fishery configuration would be to close down three out of the five studied fisheries. The result is robust to stock size fluctuations. Compared to a base case situation, the optimal fleet structure would yield a slight decrease in the commercial catch, but a recreational catch that is nearly seven times higher. As a result, the expected economic net benefits from the fishery would increase nearly 60%, and the expected number of juvenile salmon (smolt) would increase by 30%. Second, the thesis explores the management of multiple salmon stocks in an international framework. Non-cooperative and cooperative game theory are used to demonstrate different "what if" scenarios. The results of the four player game suggest that, despite the commonly agreed fishing quota, the behaviour of the countries has been closer to non-cooperation than cooperation. Cooperation would more than double the net benefits from the fishery compared to a past fisheries policy. Side payments, however, are a prerequisite for a cooperative solution. Third, the thesis applies coalitional games in the partition function form to study whether the cooperative solution would be stable despite the potential presence of positive externalities. The results show that the cooperation of two out of four studied countries can be stable. Compared to a past fisheries policy, a stable coalition structure would provide substantial economic benefits. Nevertheless, the status of the salmon stocks would not improve significantly. Fourth, the thesis studies the prerequisites for and potential consequences of the implementation of an individual transferable quota (ITQ) system in the Finnish herring fishery. Simulation results suggest that ITQs would result in a decrease in the number of fishing vessels, but enables positive profits to overlap with a higher stock size. The empirical findings of the thesis affirm that the profitability of the studied fisheries could be improved. The evidence, however, indicates that incentives for free riding exist, and thus the most preferable outcome both in economic and biological terms is elusive.

Heterotrophic Bacteria Associated with Cyanobacteria in Recreational and Drinking Water

Cyanobacterial mass occurrences, also known as water blooms, have been associated with adverse health effects of both humans and animals. They can also be a burden to drinking water treatment facilities. Risk assessments of the blooms have generally focused on the cyanobacteria themselves and their toxins. However, heterotrophic bacteria thriving among cyanobacteria may also be responsible for many of the adverse health effects, but their role as the etiological agents of these health problems is poorly known. In addition, studies on the water purification efficiency of operating water treatment plants during cyanobacterial mass occurrences in their water sources are rare. In the present study, over 600 heterotrophic bacterial strains were isolated from natural freshwater, brackish water or from treated drinking water. The sampling sites were selected as having frequent cyanobacterial occurrences in the water bodies or in the water sources of the drinking water treatment plants. In addition, samples were taken from sites where cyanobacterial water blooms were surmised to have caused human health problems. The isolated strains represented bacteria from 57 different genera of the Gamma-, Alpha- or Betaproteobacteria, Actinobacteria, Flavobacteria, Sphingobacteria, Bacilli and Deinococci classes, based on their partial 16S rRNA sequences. Several isolates had no close relatives among previously isolated bacteria or cloned 16S rRNA genes of uncultivated bacteria. The results show that water blooms are associated with a diverse community of cultivable heterotrophic bacteria. Chosen subsets of the isolated strains were analysed for features such as their virulence gene content and possible effect on cyanobacterial growth. Of the putatively pathogenic haemolytic strains isolated in the study, the majority represented the genus Aeromonas. Therefore, the Aeromonas spp. strains isolated from water samples associated with adverse health effects were screened for the virulence gene types encoding for enterotoxins (ast, alt and act/aerA/hlyA), flagellin subunits (flaA/flaB), lipase (lip/pla/lipH3/alp-1) and elastase (ahyB) by PCR. The majority (90%) of the Aeromonas strains included one or more of the six screened Aeromonas virulence gene types. The most common gene type was act, which was present in 77% of the strains. The fla, ahyB and lip genes were present in 30 37% of the strains. The prevalence of the virulence genes implies that the Aeromonas may be a factor in some of the cyanobacterial associated health problems. Of the 183 isolated bacterial strains that were studied for possible effects on cyanobacterial growth, the majority (60%) either enhanced or inhibited growth of cyanobacteria. In most cases, they enhanced the growth, which implies mutualistic interactions. The results indicate that the heterotrophic bacteria have a role in the rise and fall of the cyanobacterial water blooms. The genetic and phenotypic characteristics and the ability to degrade cyanobacterial hepatotoxins of 13 previously isolated Betaproteobacteria strains, were also studied. The strains originated from Finnish lakes with frequent cyanobacterial occurrence. Tested strains degraded microcystins -LR and -YR and nodularin. The strains could not be assigned to any described bacterial genus or species based on their genetic or phenotypic features. On the basis of their characteristics a new genus and species Paucibacter toxinivorans was proposed for them. The water purification efficiency of the drinking water treatment processes during cyanobacterial water bloom in water source was assessed at an operating surface water treatment plant. Large phytoplankton, cyanobacterial hepatotoxins, endotoxins and cultivable heterotrophic bacteria were efficiently reduced to low concentrations, often below the detection limits. In contrast, small planktonic cells, including also possible bacterial cells, regularly passed though the water treatment. The passing cells may contribute to biofilm formation within the water distribution system, and therefore lower the obtained drinking water quality. The bacterial strains of this study offer a rich source of isolated strains for examining interactions between cyanobacteria and the heterotrophic bacteria associated with them. The degraders of cyanobacterial hepatotoxins could perhaps be utilized to assist the removal of the hepatotoxins during water treatment, whereas inhibitors of cyanobacterial growth might be useful in controlling cyanobacterial water blooms. The putative pathogenicity of the strains suggests that the health risk assessment of the cyanobacterial blooms should also cover the heterotrophic bacteria.

Bayesian fisheries stock assessment: integrating and updating knowledge

In this thesis the use of the Bayesian approach to statistical inference in fisheries stock assessment is studied. The work was conducted in collaboration of the Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute by using the problem of monitoring and prediction of the juvenile salmon population in the River Tornionjoki as an example application. The River Tornionjoki is the largest salmon river flowing into the Baltic Sea. This thesis tackles the issues of model formulation and model checking as well as computational problems related to Bayesian modelling in the context of fisheries stock assessment. Each article of the thesis provides a novel method either for extracting information from data obtained via a particular type of sampling system or for integrating the information about the fish stock from multiple sources in terms of a population dynamics model. Mark-recapture and removal sampling schemes and a random catch sampling method are covered for the estimation of the population size. In addition, a method for estimating the stock composition of a salmon catch based on DNA samples is also presented. For most of the articles, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation has been used as a tool to approximate the posterior distribution. Problems arising from the sampling method are also briefly discussed and potential solutions for these problems are proposed. Special emphasis in the discussion is given to the philosophical foundation of the Bayesian approach in the context of fisheries stock assessment. It is argued that the role of subjective prior knowledge needed in practically all parts of a Bayesian model should be recognized and consequently fully utilised in the process of model formulation.

Effects of recreational use and fragmentation on the understorey vegetation and soil microbial communities of urban forests in southern Finland

The impacts of fragmentation and recreational use on the hemiboreal urban forest understorey vegetation and the microbial community of the humus layer (the phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) pattern, microbial biomass and microbial activity, measured as basal respiration) were examined in the greater Helsinki area, southern Finland. Trampling tolerance of 1) herb-rich OMT, 2) mesic MT, and 3) sub-xeric VT forests (in decreasing order of fertility) was studied by comparing relative understorey vegetation cover (urban/untrampled reference ratio) of the three forest types. The trampling tolerance of forest vegetation increased with the productivity of the site (sub-xeric < mesic < herb-rich). Wear of understorey vegetation correlated positively with the number of residents (i.e., recreational pressure) around the forest patch. An increase of 15000 residents within a radius of 1 km around a forest patch was associated with ca. 30% decrease in the relative understorey vegetation cover. The cover of dwarf shrub Vaccinium myrtillus in particular decreased with increasing levels of wear. The cover of mosses in urban forests was less than half of that in untrampled reference areas. Cover of tree saplings, mainly Sorbus aucuparia, and some resilient herbs was higher than in the reference areas. In small urban forest fragments, broad-leaved trees, grasses and herbs were more abundant and mosses were scarcer than in larger urban forest areas. Thus, due to trampling and edge effects, resilient herb and grass species are replacing sensitive dwarf shrubs, mosses and lichens in urban forests. Differences in the soil microbial community structure were found between paths and untrampled areas and the effects of paths extended more than one meter from the paths. Paths supported approximately 25-30% higher microbial biomass with a transition zone of at least 1 m from the path edge. However, microbial activity per unit of biomass was lower on paths than in untrampled areas. Furthermore, microbial biomass and activity were 30-45% lower at the first 20 m into the forest fragments, due to low moisture content of humus near the edge. The decreased microbial activity detected at forest edges and paths implies decreased litter decomposition rates, and thus, a change in nutrient cycling. Changes in the decomposition and nutrient supply may in turn affect the diversity and function of plant communities in urban forests. Keywords: boreal forest vegetation, edge effects, phospholipid fatty acids, trampling, urban woodlands, wear

Environmental factors and uncertainty in fisheries management in the northern Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea is a geologically young, large brackish water basin, and few of the species living there have fully adapted to its special conditions. Many of the species live on the edge of their distribution range in terms of one or more environmental variables such as salinity or temperature. Environmental fluctuations are know to cause fluctuations in populations abundance, and this effect is especially strong near the edges of the distribution range, where even small changes in an environmental variable can be critical to the success of a species. This thesis examines which environmental factors are the most important in relation to the success of various commercially exploited fish species in the northern Baltic Sea. It also examines the uncertainties related to fish stocks current and potential status as well as to their relationship with their environment. The aim is to quantify the uncertainties related to fisheries and environmental management, to find potential management strategies that can be used to reduce uncertainty in management results and to develop methodology related to uncertainty estimation in natural resources management. Bayesian statistical methods are utilized due to their ability to treat uncertainty explicitly in all parts of the statistical model. The results show that uncertainty about important parameters of even the most intensively studied fish species such as salmon (Salmo salar L.) and Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras L.) is large. On the other hand, management approaches that reduce uncertainty can be found. These include utilising information about ecological similarity of fish stocks and species, and using management variables that are directly related to stock parameters that can be measured easily and without extrapolations or assumptions.