Valuation of reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland : Choice experiment with attention to heterogeneous and discontinuous preferences and respondent uncertainty

Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea is a serious problem. This thesis estimates the benefit to Finns from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland, the most eutrophied part of the Baltic Sea, by applying the choice experiment method, which belongs to the family of stated preference methods. Because stated preference methods have been subject to criticism, e.g., due to their hypothetical survey context, this thesis contributes to the discussion by studying two anomalies that may lead to biased welfare estimates: respondent uncertainty and preference discontinuity. The former refers to the difficulty of stating one s preferences for an environmental good in a hypothetical context. The latter implies a departure from the continuity assumption of conventional consumer theory, which forms the basis for the method and the analysis. In the three essays of the thesis, discrete choice data are analyzed with the multinomial logit and mixed logit models. On average, Finns are willing to contribute to the water quality improvement. The probability for willingness increases with residential or recreational contact with the gulf, higher than average income, younger than average age, and the absence of dependent children in the household. On average, for Finns the relatively most important characteristic of water quality is water clarity followed by the desire for fewer occurrences of blue-green algae. For future nutrient reduction scenarios, the annual mean household willingness to pay estimates range from 271 to 448 and the aggregate welfare estimates for Finns range from 28 billion to 54 billion euros, depending on the model and the intensity of the reduction. Out of the respondents (N=726), 72.1% state in a follow-up question that they are either Certain or Quite certain about their answer when choosing the preferred alternative in the experiment. Based on the analysis of other follow-up questions and another sample (N=307), 10.4% of the respondents are identified as potentially having discontinuous preferences. In relation to both anomalies, the respondent- and questionnaire-specific variables are found among the underlying causes and a departure from standard analysis may improve the model fit and the efficiency of estimates, depending on the chosen modeling approach. The introduction of uncertainty about the future state of the Gulf increases the acceptance of the valuation scenario which may indicate an increased credibility of a proposed scenario. In conclusion, modeling preference heterogeneity is an essential part of the analysis of discrete choice data. The results regarding uncertainty in stating one s preferences and non-standard choice behavior are promising: accounting for these anomalies in the analysis may improve the precision of the estimates of benefit from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland.

The Day of the Week Effect and Option Pricing - A Study of the German Option Market

The use of different time units in option pricing may lead to inconsistent estimates of time decay and spurious jumps in implied volatilities. Different time units in the pricing model leads to different implied volatilities although the option price itself is the same.The chosen time unit should make it necessary to adjust the volatility parameter only when there are some fundamental reasons for it and not due to wrong specifications of the model. This paper examined the effects of option pricing using different time hypotheses and empirically investigated which time frame the option markets in Germany employ over weekdays. The paper specifically tries to get a picture of how the market prices options. The results seem to verify that the German market behaves in a fashion that deviates from the most traditional time units in option pricing, calendar and trading days. The study also showed that the implied volatility of Thursdays was somewhat higher and thus differed from the pattern of other days of the week. Using a GARCH model to further investigate the effect showed that although a traditional tests, like the analysis of variance, indicated a negative return for Thursday during the same period as the implied volatilities used, this was not supported using a GARCH model.

Epidemiology of candidemia in Finland

Candida species are an important cause of nosocomial bloodstream infections in hospitalized patients worldwide, with associated high mortality, excess length of stay and costs. Main contributors to candidemias is profound immunosuppression due to serious underlying condition or intensive treatments leading to an increasing number of susceptible patients. The rank order of causative Candida species varies over time and in different geographic locations. The aim of this study was to obtain information on epidemiology of candidemia in Finland, to identify trends in incidence, causative species, and patient populations at risk. In order to reveal possible outbreaks and assess the value of one molecular typing method, restriction enzyme analysis (REA), in epidemiological study, we analyzed C. albicans bloodstream isolates in Uusimaa region in Southern Finland during eight years. The data from the National Infectious Disease Register were used to assess the incidence and epidemiological features of candidemia cases. In Helsinki University Central Hospital (HUCH) all patients with blood culture yielding any Candida spp. were identified from laboratory log-books and from Finnish Hospital Infection Program. All the patients with a stored blood culture isolate of C. albicans were identified through microbiology laboratory logbooks, and stored isolates were genotyped with REA in the National Institute for Health and Welfare (former KTL). The incidence of candidemia in Finland is globally relatively low, but increased between between 1990s and 2000s. The incidence was highest in males >65 years of age, but incidence rates for patients <1-15 years were lower during 2000s than during 1990s. In HUCH the incidence of candidemia remained low and constant during our 18 years of observation, but a significant shift in patient-populations at risk was observed, associated with patients treated in intensive care units, such as premature neonates and surgical patients. The predominating causative species in Finland and in HUCH is C. albicans, but the proportion of C. glabrata increased considerably. The crude one-month case fatality was constantly high between 28-33%. REA differentiated efficiently between C. albicans blood culture isolates and no clusters were observed in the hospitals involved, despite of abundant transfer of patients among them. Candida spp. are an important cause of nosocomial blood stream infections in Finland, and continued surveillance is necessary to determine the overall trends and patient groups at risk, and reduce the impact of these infections in the future. Molecular methods provide an efficient tool for investigation of suspected outbreak and should be available in the future in Finland, also.