Conceptual and statistical modelling of environmental effects in population dynamics

Population dynamics are generally viewed as the result of intrinsic (purely density dependent) and extrinsic (environmental) processes. Both components, and potential interactions between those two, have to be modelled in order to understand and predict dynamics of natural populations; a topic that is of great importance in population management and conservation. This thesis focuses on modelling environmental effects in population dynamics and how effects of potentially relevant environmental variables can be statistically identified and quantified from time series data. Chapter I presents some useful models of multiplicative environmental effects for unstructured density dependent populations. The presented models can be written as standard multiple regression models that are easy to fit to data. Chapters II IV constitute empirical studies that statistically model environmental effects on population dynamics of several migratory bird species with different life history characteristics and migration strategies. In Chapter II, spruce cone crops are found to have a strong positive effect on the population growth of the great spotted woodpecker (Dendrocopos major), while cone crops of pine another important food resource for the species do not effectively explain population growth. The study compares rate- and ratio-dependent effects of cone availability, using state-space models that distinguish between process and observation error in the time series data. Chapter III shows how drought, in combination with settling behaviour during migration, produces asymmetric spatially synchronous patterns of population dynamics in North American ducks (genus Anas). Chapter IV investigates the dynamics of a Finnish population of skylark (Alauda arvensis), and point out effects of rainfall and habitat quality on population growth. Because the skylark time series and some of the environmental variables included show strong positive autocorrelation, the statistical significances are calculated using a Monte Carlo method, where random autocorrelated time series are generated. Chapter V is a simulation-based study, showing that ignoring observation error in analyses of population time series data can bias the estimated effects and measures of uncertainty, if the environmental variables are autocorrelated. It is concluded that the use of state-space models is an effective way to reach more accurate results. In summary, there are several biological assumptions and methodological issues that can affect the inferential outcome when estimating environmental effects from time series data, and that therefore need special attention. The functional form of the environmental effects and potential interactions between environment and population density are important to deal with. Other issues that should be considered are assumptions about density dependent regulation, modelling potential observation error, and when needed, accounting for spatial and/or temporal autocorrelation.

On Random Planar Curves and Their Scaling Limits

Planar curves arise naturally as interfaces between two regions of the plane. An important part of statistical physics is the study of lattice models. This thesis is about the interfaces of 2D lattice models. The scaling limit is an infinite system limit which is taken by letting the lattice mesh decrease to zero. At criticality, the scaling limit of an interface is one of the SLE curves (Schramm-Loewner evolution), introduced by Oded Schramm. This family of random curves is parametrized by a real variable, which determines the universality class of the model. The first and the second paper of this thesis study properties of SLEs. They contain two different methods to study the whole SLE curve, which is, in fact, the most interesting object from the statistical physics point of view. These methods are applied to study two symmetries of SLE: reversibility and duality. The first paper uses an algebraic method and a representation of the Virasoro algebra to find common martingales to different processes, and that way, to confirm the symmetries for polynomial expected values of natural SLE data. In the second paper, a recursion is obtained for the same kind of expected values. The recursion is based on stationarity of the law of the whole SLE curve under a SLE induced flow. The third paper deals with one of the most central questions of the field and provides a framework of estimates for describing 2D scaling limits by SLE curves. In particular, it is shown that a weak estimate on the probability of an annulus crossing implies that a random curve arising from a statistical physics model will have scaling limits and those will be well-described by Loewner evolutions with random driving forces.

Thermodynamics of electroweak matter

The electroweak theory is the part of the standard model of particle physics that describes the weak and electromagnetic interactions between elementary particles. Since its formulation almost 40 years ago, it has been experimentally verified to a high accuracy and today it has a status as one of the cornerstones of particle physics. Thermodynamics of electroweak physics has been studied ever since the theory was written down and the features the theory exhibits at extreme conditions remain an interesting research topic even today. In this thesis, we consider some aspects of electroweak thermodynamics. Specifically, we compute the pressure of the standard model to high precision and study the structure of the electroweak phase diagram when finite chemical potentials for all the conserved particle numbers in the theory are introduced. In the first part of the thesis, the theory, methods and essential results from the computations are introduced. The original research publications are reprinted at the end.

Theoretical and computational approaches on heterogeneous nucleation

Nucleation is the first step of a first order phase transition. A new phase is always sprung up in nucleation phenomena. The two main categories of nucleation are homogeneous nucleation, where the new phase is formed in a uniform substance, and heterogeneous nucleation, when nucleation occurs on a pre-existing surface. In this thesis the main attention is paid on heterogeneous nucleation. This thesis wields the nucleation phenomena from two theoretical perspectives: the classical nucleation theory and the statistical mechanical approach. The formulation of the classical nucleation theory relies on equilibrium thermodynamics and use of macroscopically determined quantities to describe the properties of small nuclei, sometimes consisting of just a few molecules. The statistical mechanical approach is based on interactions between single molecules, and does not bear the same assumptions as the classical theory. This work gathers up the present theoretical knowledge of heterogeneous nucleation and utilizes it in computational model studies. A new exact molecular approach on heterogeneous nucleation was introduced and tested by Monte Carlo simulations. The results obtained from the molecular simulations were interpreted by means of the concepts of the classical nucleation theory. Numerical calculations were carried out for a variety of substances nucleating on different substances. The classical theory of heterogeneous nucleation was employed in calculations of one-component nucleation of water on newsprint paper, Teflon and cellulose film, and binary nucleation of water-n-propanol and water-sulphuric acid mixtures on silver nanoparticles. The results were compared with experimental results. The molecular simulation studies involved homogeneous nucleation of argon and heterogeneous nucleation of argon on a planar platinum surface. It was found out that the use of a microscopical contact angle as a fitting parameter in calculations based on the classical theory of heterogeneous nucleation leads to a fair agreement between the theoretical predictions and experimental results. In the presented cases the microscopical angle was found to be always smaller than the contact angle obtained from macroscopical measurements. Furthermore, molecular Monte Carlo simulations revealed that the concept of the geometrical contact parameter in heterogeneous nucleation calculations can work surprisingly well even for very small clusters.

A Sketch of the Phonology and Grammar of Rajbanshi

This dissertation is a synchronic description of the phonology and grammar of two dialects of the Rajbanshi language (Eastern Indo-Aryan) as spoken in Jhapa, Nepal. I have primarily confined the analysis to the oral expression, since the emerging literary form is still in its infancy. The grammatical analysis is therefore based, for the most part, on a corpus of oral narrative text which was recorded and transcribed from three informants from north-east Jhapa. An informant, speaking a dialect from south-west Jhapa cross checked this text corpus and provided additional elicited material. I have described the phonology, morphology and syntax of the language, and also one aspect of its discourse structure. For the most part the phonology follows the basic Indo-Aryan pattern. Derivational morphology, compounding, reduplication, echo formation and onomatopoeic constructions are considered, as well as number, noun classes (their assignment and grammatical function), pronouns, and case and postpositions. In verbal morphology I cover causative stems, the copula, primary and secondary agreement, tense, aspect, mood, auxiliary constructions and non-finite forms. The term secondary agreement here refers to genitive agreement, dative-subject agreement and patient (and sometimes patient-agent) agreement. The breaking of default agreement rules has a range of pragmatic inferences. I argue that a distinction, based on formal, semantic and statistical grounds, should be made between conjunct verbs, derivational compound verbs and quasi-aspectual compound verbs. Rajbanshi has an open set of adjectives, and it additionally makes use of a restricted set of nouns which can function as adjectives. Various particles, and the emphatic and conjunctive clitics are also considered. The syntactic structures studied include: non-declarative speech acts, phrase-internal and clause-internal constituent order, negation, subordination, coordination and valence adjustment. I explain how the future, present and past tenses in Rajbanshi oral narratives do not seem to maintain a time reference, but rather to indicate a distinction between background and foreground information. I call this tense neutralisation .

Depression and its assessment among stroke patients and their caregivers

Approximately one-third of stroke patients experience depression. Stroke also has a profound effect on the lives of caregivers of stroke survivors. However, depression in this latter population has received little attention. In this study the objectives were to determine which factors are associated with and can be used to predict depression at different points in time after stroke; to compare different depression assessment methods among stroke patients; and to determine the prevalence, course and associated factors of depression among the caregivers of stroke patients. A total of 100 consecutive hospital-admitted patients no older than 70 years of age were followed for 18 months after having their first ischaemic stroke. Depression was assessed according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-III-R), Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), Hamilton Rating Scale (HRSD), Visual Analogue Mood Scale (VAMS), Clinical Global Impression (CGI) and caregiver ratings. Neurological assessments and a comprehensive neuropsychological test battery were performed. Depression in caregivers was assessed by BDI. Depressive symptoms had early onsets in most cases. Mild depressive symptoms were often persistent with little change during the 18-month follow-up, although there was an increase in major depression over the same time interval. Stroke severity was associated with depression especially from 6 to 12 months post-stroke. At the acute phase, older patients were at higher risk of depression, and a higher proportion of men were depressed at 18 months post-stroke. Of the various depression assessment methods, none stood clearly apart from the others. The feasibility of each did not differ greatly, but prevalence rates differed widely according to the different criteria. When compared against DSM-III-R criteria, sensitivity and specificity were acceptable for the CGI, BDI, and HRSD. The CGI and BDI had better sensitivity than the more specific HRSD. The VAMS seemed not to be a reliable method for assessing depression among stroke patients. The caregivers often rated patients depression as more severe than did the patients themselves. Moreover, their ratings seemed to be influenced by their own depression. Of the caregivers, 30-33% were depressed. At the acute phase, caregiver depression was associated with the severity of the stroke and the older age of the patient. The best predictor of caregiver depression at later follow-up was caregiver depression at the acute phase. The results suggest that depression should be assessed during the early post-stroke period and that the follow-up of those at risk of poor emotional outcome should be extended beyond the first year post-stroke. Further, the assessment of well-being of the caregivers of stroke patients should be included as a part of a rehabilitation plan for stroke patients.

Early-onset depressive disorders,related mental health disorders and substance use-A prospective : longitudinal study of Finnish twins born 1983-1987

Early-onset psychiatric illnesses effects scatter to academic achievements as well as functioning in familial and social environments. From a public health point of view, depressive disorders are the most significant mental health disorders that begin in adolescence. Using prospective and longitudinal design, this study aimed to increase the understanding of early-onset depressive disorders, related mental health disorders and developing substance use in a large population-derived sample of adolescent Finnish twins. The participants of this study, FinnTwin12, an ongoing longitudinal population-based study, came from Finnish families with twins born in 1983-87 (exhaustive of five birth cohorts, identified from Finland s Central Population Register). With follow-up ongoing at age 20-24, this thesis assessed adolescent mental health in the first three waves, starting from baseline age 11-12 to follow-ups at age 14 and 17½. Some 5600 twins participated in questionnaire assessments of a wide range of health related behaviors. Mental health was further assessed among an intensively studied subsample of 1852 adolescents, who completed also professionally administered interviews at age 14, which provided data for full DSM-IV/III-R (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Health disorders, 4th and 3rd editions) diagnoses. The participation rates of the study were 87-92%. The results of the study suggest, that the diagnostic criteria for major depressive disorder (MDD) may not capture youth with clinically significant early-onset depressive conditions outside clinical settings. Milder cases of depression, namely adolescents fulfilling the diagnostic criteria for minor depressive disorder, a qualitatively similar condition to MDD with fewer symptoms are also associated with marked suicidal thoughts, plans and attempts, recurrences and a high degree of comorbidity. Prospectively and longitudinally, early-onset depressive disorders were of substantial importance in the context of other mental health disorders and substance use behaviors: These data from a large population-derived sample established a substantial overlap between early-onset depressive disorders and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in adolescent females, both of them significantly predictive for development of substance use among girls. Only in females baseline DSM-IV ADHD symptoms were strong predictors of alcohol abuse and dependence and illicit drug use at age 14 and frequent alcohol use and illicit drug use at age 17.½ when conduct disorder and previous substance use were controlled for. Early-onset depressive disorders were also prospectively and longitudinally associated to daily smoking behavior, smokeless tobacco use, frequent alcohol use and illicit drug use and eating disorders. Analysis of discordant twins suggested that these predictive associations were independent of familial confounds, such as family income, structure and parental models. In sum, early-onset depressive disorders predict subsequent involvement of substance use and psychiatric morbidity. A heightened risk for substance use is substantial also among those depressed below categorical diagnosis of MDD. Whether early recognition and interventions among these young people hold potential for substance use prevention further in their lives has potential public health significance and calls for more research. Data from this population-derived sample with balanced representation of boys and girls, suggested that boys and girls with ADHD behaviors may differ from each other in their vulnerability to substance use and depressive disorders: the data suggest more adverse substance use outcome for girls that was not attenuated by conduct disorder or previous substance use. Further, the prospective associations of early-onset depressive disorders and future elevated levels of addictive substance use is not explained by familial factors supporting future substance use, which could have important implications for substance use prevention.

Geospatial environmental data modelling applications using remote sensing, GIS and spatial statistics

This thesis presents novel modelling applications for environmental geospatial data using remote sensing, GIS and statistical modelling techniques. The studied themes can be classified into four main themes: (i) to develop advanced geospatial databases. Paper (I) demonstrates the creation of a geospatial database for the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Åland Islands, south-western Finland; (ii) to analyse species diversity and distribution using GIS techniques. Paper (II) presents a diversity and geographical distribution analysis for Scopulini moths at a world-wide scale; (iii) to study spatiotemporal forest cover change. Paper (III) presents a study of exotic and indigenous tree cover change detection in Taita Hills Kenya using airborne imagery and GIS analysis techniques; (iv) to explore predictive modelling techniques using geospatial data. In Paper (IV) human population occurrence and abundance in the Taita Hills highlands was predicted using the generalized additive modelling (GAM) technique. Paper (V) presents techniques to enhance fire prediction and burned area estimation at a regional scale in East Caprivi Namibia. Paper (VI) compares eight state-of-the-art predictive modelling methods to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping in East Caprivi Namibia. The results in Paper (I) showed that geospatial data can be managed effectively using advanced relational database management systems. Metapopulation data for Melitaea cinxia butterfly was successfully combined with GPS-delimited habitat patch information and climatic data. Using the geospatial database, spatial analyses were successfully conducted at habitat patch level or at more coarse analysis scales. Moreover, this study showed it appears evident that at a large-scale spatially correlated weather conditions are one of the primary causes of spatially correlated changes in Melitaea cinxia population sizes. In Paper (II) spatiotemporal characteristics of Socupulini moths description, diversity and distribution were analysed at a world-wide scale and for the first time GIS techniques were used for Scopulini moth geographical distribution analysis. This study revealed that Scopulini moths have a cosmopolitan distribution. The majority of the species have been described from the low latitudes, sub-Saharan Africa being the hot spot of species diversity. However, the taxonomical effort has been uneven among biogeographical regions. Paper III showed that forest cover change can be analysed in great detail using modern airborne imagery techniques and historical aerial photographs. However, when spatiotemporal forest cover change is studied care has to be taken in co-registration and image interpretation when historical black and white aerial photography is used. In Paper (IV) human population distribution and abundance could be modelled with fairly good results using geospatial predictors and non-Gaussian predictive modelling techniques. Moreover, land cover layer is not necessary needed as a predictor because first and second-order image texture measurements derived from satellite imagery had more power to explain the variation in dwelling unit occurrence and abundance. Paper V showed that generalized linear model (GLM) is a suitable technique for fire occurrence prediction and for burned area estimation. GLM based burned area estimations were found to be more superior than the existing MODIS burned area product (MCD45A1). However, spatial autocorrelation of fires has to be taken into account when using the GLM technique for fire occurrence prediction. Paper VI showed that novel statistical predictive modelling techniques can be used to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping at a regional scale. However, some noticeable variation between different predictive modelling techniques for fire occurrence prediction and burned area estimation existed.

On the Geometry of Infinite-Dimensional Grassmannian Manifolds and Gauge Theory

This PhD Thesis is about certain infinite-dimensional Grassmannian manifolds that arise naturally in geometry, representation theory and mathematical physics. From the physics point of view one encounters these infinite-dimensional manifolds when trying to understand the second quantization of fermions. The many particle Hilbert space of the second quantized fermions is called the fermionic Fock space. A typical element of the fermionic Fock space can be thought to be a linear combination of the configurations m particles and n anti-particles . Geometrically the fermionic Fock space can be constructed as holomorphic sections of a certain (dual)determinant line bundle lying over the so called restricted Grassmannian manifold, which is a typical example of an infinite-dimensional Grassmannian manifold one encounters in QFT. The construction should be compared with its well-known finite-dimensional analogue, where one realizes an exterior power of a finite-dimensional vector space as the space of holomorphic sections of a determinant line bundle lying over a finite-dimensional Grassmannian manifold. The connection with infinite-dimensional representation theory stems from the fact that the restricted Grassmannian manifold is an infinite-dimensional homogeneous (Kähler) manifold, i.e. it is of the form G/H where G is a certain infinite-dimensional Lie group and H its subgroup. A central extension of G acts on the total space of the dual determinant line bundle and also on the space its holomorphic sections; thus G admits a (projective) representation on the fermionic Fock space. This construction also induces the so called basic representation for loop groups (of compact groups), which in turn are vitally important in string theory / conformal field theory. The Thesis consists of three chapters: the first chapter is an introduction to the backround material and the other two chapters are individually written research articles. The first article deals in a new way with the well-known question in Yang-Mills theory, when can one lift the action of the gauge transformation group on the space of connection one forms to the total space of the Fock bundle in a compatible way with the second quantized Dirac operator. In general there is an obstruction to this (called the Mickelsson-Faddeev anomaly) and various geometric interpretations for this anomaly, using such things as group extensions and bundle gerbes, have been given earlier. In this work we give a new geometric interpretation for the Faddeev-Mickelsson anomaly in terms of differentiable gerbes (certain sheaves of categories) and central extensions of Lie groupoids. The second research article deals with the question how to define a Dirac-like operator on the restricted Grassmannian manifold, which is an infinite-dimensional space and hence not in the landscape of standard Dirac operator theory. The construction relies heavily on infinite-dimensional representation theory and one of the most technically demanding challenges is to be able to introduce proper normal orderings for certain infinite sums of operators in such a way that all divergences will disappear and the infinite sum will make sense as a well-defined operator acting on a suitable Hilbert space of spinors. This research article was motivated by a more extensive ongoing project to construct twisted K-theory classes in Yang-Mills theory via a Dirac-like operator on the restricted Grassmannian manifold.

Computational Methods for Reconstruction and Analysis of Genome-Scale Metabolic Networks

Metabolism is the cellular subsystem responsible for generation of energy from nutrients and production of building blocks for larger macromolecules. Computational and statistical modeling of metabolism is vital to many disciplines including bioengineering, the study of diseases, drug target identification, and understanding the evolution of metabolism. In this thesis, we propose efficient computational methods for metabolic modeling. The techniques presented are targeted particularly at the analysis of large metabolic models encompassing the whole metabolism of one or several organisms. We concentrate on three major themes of metabolic modeling: metabolic pathway analysis, metabolic reconstruction and the study of evolution of metabolism. In the first part of this thesis, we study metabolic pathway analysis. We propose a novel modeling framework called gapless modeling to study biochemically viable metabolic networks and pathways. In addition, we investigate the utilization of atom-level information on metabolism to improve the quality of pathway analyses. We describe efficient algorithms for discovering both gapless and atom-level metabolic pathways, and conduct experiments with large-scale metabolic networks. The presented gapless approach offers a compromise in terms of complexity and feasibility between the previous graph-theoretic and stoichiometric approaches to metabolic modeling. Gapless pathway analysis shows that microbial metabolic networks are not as robust to random damage as suggested by previous studies. Furthermore the amino acid biosynthesis pathways of the fungal species Trichoderma reesei discovered from atom-level data are shown to closely correspond to those of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. In the second part, we propose computational methods for metabolic reconstruction in the gapless modeling framework. We study the task of reconstructing a metabolic network that does not suffer from connectivity problems. Such problems often limit the usability of reconstructed models, and typically require a significant amount of manual postprocessing. We formulate gapless metabolic reconstruction as an optimization problem and propose an efficient divide-and-conquer strategy to solve it with real-world instances. We also describe computational techniques for solving problems stemming from ambiguities in metabolite naming. These techniques have been implemented in a web-based sofware ReMatch intended for reconstruction of models for 13C metabolic flux analysis. In the third part, we extend our scope from single to multiple metabolic networks and propose an algorithm for inferring gapless metabolic networks of ancestral species from phylogenetic data. Experimenting with 16 fungal species, we show that the method is able to generate results that are easily interpretable and that provide hypotheses about the evolution of metabolism.

Reinventing Nordic Openness : Transparency and State Information in Finland

The study explores new ideational changes in the information strategy of the Finnish state between 1998 and 2007, after a juncture in Finnish governing in the early 1990s. The study scrutinizes the economic reframing of institutional openness in Finland that comes with significant and often unintended institutional consequences of transparency. Most notably, the constitutional principle of publicity (julkisuusperiaate), a Nordic institutional peculiarity allowing public access to state information, is now becoming an instrument of economic performance and accountability through results. Finland has a long institutional history in the publicity of government information, acknowledged by law since 1951. Nevertheless, access to government information became a policy concern in the mid-1990s, involving a historical narrative of openness as a Nordic tradition of Finnish governing Nordic openness (pohjoismainen avoimuus). International interest in transparency of governance has also marked an opening for institutional re-descriptions in Nordic context. The essential added value, or contradictory term, that transparency has on the Finnish conceptualisation of governing is the innovation that public acts of governing can be economically efficient. This is most apparent in the new attempts at providing standardised information on government and expressing it in numbers. In Finland, the publicity of government information has been a concept of democratic connotations, but new internationally diffusing ideas of performance and national economic competitiveness are discussed under the notion of transparency and its peer concepts openness and public (sector) information, which are also newcomers to Finnish vocabulary of governing. The above concepts often conflict with one another, paving the way to unintended consequences for the reforms conducted in their name. Moreover, the study argues that the policy concerns over openness and public sector information are linked to the new drive for transparency. Drawing on theories of new institutionalism, political economy, and conceptual history, the study argues for a reinvention of Nordic openness in two senses. First, in referring to institutional history, the policy discourse of Nordic openness discovers an administrative tradition in response to new dilemmas of public governance. Moreover, this normatively appealing discourse also legitimizes the new ideational changes. Second, a former mechanism of democratic accountability is being reframed with market and performance ideas, mostly originating from the sphere of transnational governance and governance indices. Mobilizing different research techniques and data (public documents of the Finnish government and international organizations, some 30 interviews of Finnish civil servants, and statistical time series), the study asks how the above ideational changes have been possible, pointing to the importance of nationalistically appealing historical narratives and normative concepts of governing. Concerning institutional developments, the study analyses the ideational changes in central steering mechanisms (political, normative and financial steering) and the introduction of budget transparency and performance management in two cases: census data (Population Register Centre) and foreign political information (Ministry for Foreign Affairs). The new policy domain of governance indices is also explored as a type of transparency. The study further asks what institutional transformations are to be observed in the above cases and in the accountability system. The study concludes that while the information rights of citizens have been reinforced and recalibrated during the period under scrutiny, there has also been a conversion of institutional practices towards economic performance. As the discourse of Nordic openness has been rather unquestioned, the new internationally circulating ideas of transparency and the knowledge economy have entered this discourse without public notice. Since the mid 1990s, state registry data has been perceived as an exploitable economic resource in Finland and in the EU public sector information. This is a parallel development to the new drive for budget transparency in organisations as vital to the state as the Population Register Centre, which has led to marketization of census data in Finland, an international exceptionality. In the Finnish Ministry for Foreign Affairs, the post-Cold War rhetorical shift from secrecy to performance-driven openness marked a conversion in institutional practices that now see information services with high regards. But this has not necessarily led to the increased publicity of foreign political information. In this context, openness is also defined as sharing information with select actors, as a trust based non-public activity, deemed necessary amid the global economic competition. Regarding accountability system, deliberation and performance now overlap, making it increasingly difficult to identify to whom and for what the public administration is accountable. These evolving institutional practices are characterised by unintended consequences and paradoxes. History is a paradoxical component in the above institutional change, as long-term institutional developments now justify short-term reforms.

Modeling ecological and evolutionary processes in spatially structured populations

Many species inhabit fragmented landscapes, resulting either from anthropogenic or from natural processes. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured populations are affected by a complex interplay between endogenous and exogenous factors. The metapopulation approach, simplifying the landscape to a discrete set of patches of breeding habitat surrounded by unsuitable matrix, has become a widely applied paradigm for the study of species inhabiting highly fragmented landscapes. In this thesis, I focus on the construction of biologically realistic models and their parameterization with empirical data, with the general objective of understanding how the interactions between individuals and their spatially structured environment affect ecological and evolutionary processes in fragmented landscapes. I study two hierarchically structured model systems, which are the Glanville fritillary butterfly in the Åland Islands, and a system of two interacting aphid species in the Tvärminne archipelago, both being located in South-Western Finland. The interesting and challenging feature of both study systems is that the population dynamics occur over multiple spatial scales that are linked by various processes. My main emphasis is in the development of mathematical and statistical methodologies. For the Glanville fritillary case study, I first build a Bayesian framework for the estimation of death rates and capture probabilities from mark-recapture data, with the novelty of accounting for variation among individuals in capture probabilities and survival. I then characterize the dispersal phase of the butterflies by deriving a mathematical approximation of a diffusion-based movement model applied to a network of patches. I use the movement model as a building block to construct an individual-based evolutionary model for the Glanville fritillary butterfly metapopulation. I parameterize the evolutionary model using a pattern-oriented approach, and use it to study how the landscape structure affects the evolution of dispersal. For the aphid case study, I develop a Bayesian model of hierarchical multi-scale metapopulation dynamics, where the observed extinction and colonization rates are decomposed into intrinsic rates operating specifically at each spatial scale. In summary, I show how analytical approaches, hierarchical Bayesian methods and individual-based simulations can be used individually or in combination to tackle complex problems from many different viewpoints. In particular, hierarchical Bayesian methods provide a useful tool for decomposing ecological complexity into more tractable components.