Forest inventory-based large-scale forest biomass and carbon budget assessment: new enhanced methods and use of remote sensing for verification

In recent years, concern has arisen over the effects of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) in the earth's atmosphere due to the burning of fossil fuels. One way to mitigate increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change is carbon sequestration to forest vegeta-tion through photosynthesis. Comparable regional scale estimates for the carbon balance of forests are therefore needed for scientific and political purposes. The aim of the present dissertation was to improve methods for quantifying and verifying inventory-based carbon pool estimates of the boreal forests in the mineral soils. Ongoing forest inventories provide a data based on statistically sounded sampling for estimating the level of carbon stocks and stock changes, but improved modelling tools and comparison of methods are still needed. In this dissertation, the entire inventory-based large-scale forest carbon stock assessment method was presented together with some separate methods for enhancing and comparing it. The enhancement methods presented here include ways to quantify the biomass of understorey vegetation as well as to estimate the litter production of needles and branches. In addition, the optical remote sensing method illustrated in this dis-sertation can be used to compare with independent data. The forest inventory-based large-scale carbon stock assessment method demonstrated here provided reliable carbon estimates when compared with independent data. Future ac-tivity to improve the accuracy of this method could consist of reducing the uncertainties regarding belowground biomass and litter production as well as the soil compartment. The methods developed will serve the needs for UNFCCC reporting and the reporting under the Kyoto Protocol. This method is principally intended for analysts or planners interested in quantifying carbon over extensive forest areas.

Harmful algae in the planktonic food web of the Baltic Sea

This study deals with algal species occurring commonly in the Baltic Sea: haptophyte Prymnesium parvum, dinoflagellates Dinophysis acuminata, D. norvegica and D. rotundata, and cyanobacterium Nodularia spumigena. The hypotheses are connected to the toxicity of the species, to the factors determining toxicity, to the consequences of toxicity and to the transfer of toxins in the aquatic food web. Since the Baltic Sea is severely eutrophicated, the fast-growing haptophytes have potential in causing toxic blooms. In our studies, the toxicity (as haemolytic activity) of the haptophyte P. parvum was highest under phosphorus-limited conditions, but the cells were toxic also under nitrogen limitation and under nutrient-balanced growth conditions. The cellular nutrient ratios were tightly related to the toxicity. The stoichiometric flexibility for cellular phosphorus quota was higher than for nitrogen, and nitrogen limitation led to decreased biomass. Negative allelopathic effects on another algae (Rhodomonas salina) could be observed already at low P. parvum cell densities, whereas immediate lysis of R. salina cells occurred at P. parvum cell densities corresponding to natural blooms. Release of dissolved organic carbon from the R. salina cells was measured within 30 minutes, and an increase in bacterial number and biomass was measured within 23 h. Because of the allelopathic effect, formation of a P. parvum bloom may accelerate after a critical cell density is reached and the competing species are eliminated. A P. parvum bloom indirectly stimulates bacterial growth, and alters the functioning of the planktonic food web by increasing the carbon transfer through the microbial loop. Our results were the first reports on DSP toxins in Dinophysis cells in the Gulf of Finland and on PTX-2 in the Baltic Sea. Cellular toxin contents in Dinophysis spp. ranged from 0.2 to 149 pg DTX-1 cell-1 and from 1.6 to 19.9 pg PTX-2 cell-1 in the Gulf of Finland. D. norvegica was found mainly around the thermocline (max. 200 cells L-1), whereas D. acuminata was found in the whole mixed layer (max. 7 280 cells L-1). Toxins in the sediment trap corresponded to 1 % of DTX-1 and 0.01 % PTX-2 of the DSP pool in the suspended matter. This indicates that the majority of the DSP toxins does not enter the benthic community, but is either decomposed in the water column, or transferred to higher trophic levels in the planktonic food chain. We found that nodularin, produced by Nodularia spumigena, was transferred to the copepod Eurytemora affinis through three pathways: by grazing on filaments of small Nodularia, directly from the dissolved pool, and through the microbial food web by copepods grazing on ciliates, dinoflagellates and heterotrophic nanoflagellates. The estimated proportion of the microbial food web in nodularin transfer was 22-45 % and 71-76 % in our two experiments, respectively. This highlights the potential role of the microbial food web in the transfer of toxins in the planktonic food web.

Prognostic tumour markers in pancreatic cancer

Background. Pancreatic cancer is one of the major causes of cancer death in the industrialised world. The overall survival of patients with ductal pancreatic adenocarcinoma is poor: 5-year survival is only 0.2 to 4%. Tumour stage and histological grade are used as prognostic markers in pancreatic cancer. However, there are differences in survival within stages and histological grades. New, additional and more accurate prognostic tools are needed. Aims. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether the tissue expression of potential and promising tumour markers p27, tenascin C, syndecan-1, COX-2 and MMP-2 are associated with clinicopathological parameters in pancreatic cancer. The expression of p27, tenascin C and syndecan-1 was also evaluated in acute and chronic pancreatitis. The main purpose in the study was to find new prognostic markers for pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Patients. The study included 147 patients with histologically verified pancreatic adenocarcinoma treated at Helsinki University Central Hospital from 1974 to1998. Methods. The expression of tumour marker antigens was demonstrated by immunohistochemistry using monoclonal antibodies against p27, syndecan-1, tenascin C, COX-2 and MMP-2. The results were compared with clinicopathological variables, i.e. age, sex, TNM stage and histological grade. Survival analyses were performed with univariate Kaplan-Meier life-tables and the log-rank test, while multivariate analyses were performed using Cox regression. Results. Pancreatic adenocarcinomas expressed p27, syndecan-1, tenascin C, COX-2 and MMP-2 in 30, 94, 92, 36 and 50% of the samples, respectively. Loss of p27 expression was associated with poor prognosis in stage I and II pancreatic cancer. Stromal syndecan-1 expression was an independent prognostic marker in pancreatic cancer, whereas epithelial syndecan-1 expression predicted better prognosis only in stage I and II disease. Tenascin C expression did not correlate with survival but was associated with differentiation. COX-2 expression was associated with poor outcome and was an independent prognostic factor. Epithelial MMP-2 correlated with poor prognosis in pancreatic cancer. Conclusion: p27 and epithelial syndecan-1 are prognostic markers in early (stage I and II) pancreatic cancer. Stromal syndecan-1, COX-2 and epithelial MMP-2 are prognostic factors in ductal pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

Search for Supersymmetry with Gauge-Mediated Breaking in Diphoton Events with Missing Transverse Energy at CDF II

We present the results of a search for supersymmetry with gauge-mediated breaking and $\NONE\to\gamma\Gravitino$ in the $\gamma\gamma$+missing transverse energy final state. In 2.6$\pm$0.2 \invfb of $p{\bar p}$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}$$=$1.96 TeV recorded by the CDF II detector we observe no candidate events, consistent with a standard model background expectation of 1.4$\pm$0.4 events. We set limits on the cross section at the 95% C.L. and place the world's best limit of 149\gevc on the \none mass at $\tau_{\tilde{\chi}_1^0}$$

Darkening days

Argues that the balance of the UK's hung parliament resonates as much with Europe's darker past as the potential of a fairer future. Response to FIIA's briefing No. 60 'No Real Winner?' by Toby Archer.

Sense of Coherence : Determinants and consequences

ABSTRACT Sense of coherence (SOC) is a core concept within Antonovsky s salutogenic theory and is argued to be a psychological determinant of health. The present social-epidemiological study explores the associations between a wide range of generalized resistance resources of SOC among Finnish- and Swedish-speaking women and men with a view to gaining deeper insight into its developmental circumstances and determinants. Secondly, a five-year follow-up study was conducted in order to assess the stability of SOC in difficult life events. Finally the role and effect of SOC in the intentions to retire early was investigated in a prospective study. The above studies were based on two data sets: the Finnish 'Survey on Living Conditions' (ELO-94) conducted in 1994 by means of personal face-to-face interviews (N=6506), and a prospective postal survey of the 15-year Health and Social Support (HeSSup) study for which the baseline data was collected in 1998 (N=25 898) and the follow-up in 2003. The present study reveals that the level of SOC in adulthood is strongly dependent on close and successful social relationships during both childhood and adulthood, and that there is a strong association with qualitative work features. Not having a partner as well as being unable to use one s skills at work proved to threaten men s SOC in particular, whereas a lack of social support did the same for women. Otherwise, the association with generalized resistance resources turned out to be quite similar in both genders. Swedish-speaking Finns appear to have a slightly stronger SOC due to the better psycho-emotional circumstances in the childhood home and work circumstances in adulthood, in other words higher levels of generalized resistance resources compared to Finnish speakers. These language group differences did not concern any social-life factors included in the present study. The results of the five-year follow-up study suggest that SOC is not stable, and that the level clearly decreases after a negative life event. Even a strong SOC decreased during the follow-up period and, furthermore, was no more stable than a mediocre or weak SOC. There seems to be a clear and independent association with the intentions to retire early among both men and women following full adjustment. Swedish speakers appear to be less inclined to retire early than Finnish speakers. In the light of the present study, it seems that SOC is determined not only by socio-economic factors but also by close and successful social relationships during both childhood and adulthood. This applied to both genders and language groups. Interventions aimed at promoting the health of the disadvantaged should therefore focus on families with children, and extend later also to other than socio-economic spheres of life. SOC theory could also be applied in efforts to inhibit early retirement: management practices aimed at providing employees with a work environment and tasks that are comprehensible, manageable and meaningful could potentially decrease the intentions to retire early.

A Formalised Model of the Information and Materials Handling Activities in the Construction Process

A model of the information and material activities that comprise the overall construction process is presented, using the SADT activity modelling methodology. The basic model is further refined into a number of generic information handling activities such as creation of new information, information search and retrieval, information distribution and person-to-person communication. The viewpoint could be described as information logistics. This model is then combined with a more traditional building process model, consisting of phases such as design and construction. The resulting two-dimensional matrix can be used for positioning different types of generic IT-tools or construction specific applications. The model can thus provide a starting point for a discussion of the application of information and communication technology in construction and for measurements of the impacts of IT on the overall process and its related costs.

Essays on Earnings Management (summary section only)

There is much literature developing theories when and where earnings management occurs. Among the several possible motives driving earnings management behaviour in firms, this thesis focuses on motives that aim to influence the valuation of the firm. Earnings management that makes the firm look better than it really is may result in disappointment for the single investor and potentially leads to a welfare loss in society when the resource allocation is distorted. A more specific knowledge of the occurrence of earnings management supposedly increases the awareness of the investor and thus leads to better investments and increased welfare. This thesis contributes to the literature by increasing the knowledge as to where and when earnings management is likely to occur. More specifically, essay 1 adds to existing research connecting earnings management to IPOs and increases the knowledge in arguing that the tendency to manage earnings differs between the IPOs. Evidence is found that entrepreneur owned IPOs are more likely to be earnings managers than the institutionally owned ones. Essay 2 considers the reliability of quarterly earnings reports that precedes insider selling binges. The essay contributes by suggesting that earnings management is likely to occur before high insider selling. Essay 3 examines the widely studied phenomenon of income smoothing and investigates if income smoothing can be explained with proxies for information asymmetry. The essay argues that smoothing is more pervasive in private and smaller firms.

Modelling and Forecasting Property Rents and Returns (summary section only)

Recently, focus of real estate investment has expanded from the building-specific level to the aggregate portfolio level. The portfolio perspective requires investment analysis for real estate which is comparable with that of other asset classes, such as stocks and bonds. Thus, despite its distinctive features, such as heterogeneity, high unit value, illiquidity and the use of valuations to measure performance, real estate should not be considered in isolation. This means that techniques which are widely used for other assets classes can also be applied to real estate. An important part of investment strategies which support decisions on multi-asset portfolios is identifying the fundamentals of movements in property rents and returns, and predicting them on the basis of these fundamentals. The main objective of this thesis is to find the key drivers and the best methods for modelling and forecasting property rents and returns in markets which have experienced structural changes. The Finnish property market, which is a small European market with structural changes and limited property data, is used as a case study. The findings in the thesis show that is it possible to use modern econometric tools for modelling and forecasting property markets. The thesis consists of an introduction part and four essays. Essays 1 and 3 model Helsinki office rents and returns, and assess the suitability of alternative techniques for forecasting these series. Simple time series techniques are able to account for structural changes in the way markets operate, and thus provide the best forecasting tool. Theory-based econometric models, in particular error correction models, which are constrained by long-run information, are better for explaining past movements in rents and returns than for predicting their future movements. Essay 2 proceeds by examining the key drivers of rent movements for several property types in a number of Finnish property markets. The essay shows that commercial rents in local markets can be modelled using national macroeconomic variables and a panel approach. Finally, Essay 4 investigates whether forecasting models can be improved by accounting for asymmetric responses of office returns to the business cycle. The essay finds that the forecast performance of time series models can be improved by introducing asymmetries, and the improvement is sufficient to justify the extra computational time and effort associated with the application of these techniques.

The Day of the Week Effect and Option Pricing - A Study of the German Option Market

The use of different time units in option pricing may lead to inconsistent estimates of time decay and spurious jumps in implied volatilities. Different time units in the pricing model leads to different implied volatilities although the option price itself is the same.The chosen time unit should make it necessary to adjust the volatility parameter only when there are some fundamental reasons for it and not due to wrong specifications of the model. This paper examined the effects of option pricing using different time hypotheses and empirically investigated which time frame the option markets in Germany employ over weekdays. The paper specifically tries to get a picture of how the market prices options. The results seem to verify that the German market behaves in a fashion that deviates from the most traditional time units in option pricing, calendar and trading days. The study also showed that the implied volatility of Thursdays was somewhat higher and thus differed from the pattern of other days of the week. Using a GARCH model to further investigate the effect showed that although a traditional tests, like the analysis of variance, indicated a negative return for Thursday during the same period as the implied volatilities used, this was not supported using a GARCH model.

Biomarkers in acute respiratory failure

Acute respiratory failure (ARF) is the most common type of organ failure leading to the need for intensive care. It is often secondary to acute lung injury (ALI) and its more severe form, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). ARF, and especially ALI and ARDS, cause increased morbidity, and mortality rates remain high (up to 40%). These disorders are characterised by inflammatory reaction and tissue damage. In some cases, inflammation continues and leads to an overwhelming repair process with ongoing fibrosis, accompanied by organ dysfunction and eventually a loss of function. Measuring the magnitude of the inflammation, and the repair process, would theoretically offer information concerning outcome. Early identification of patients whose disease process is likely to proceed unfavourably, would help clinicians to optimise their treatment. The aim of this study was to evaluate the epidemiology of ARF, its treatment, and outcome in Finland, with special interest in biomarkers, and their value in the prediction of mortality. Altogether, 958 adult patients treated with ventilatory support were prospectively included in this study during an eight week period in 2007 in 25 intensive care units. Plasma aminoterminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) was assessed in 602 patients, and plasma cell-free DNA in 580 patients, to evaluate their prognostic value in ARF. Markers of collagen metabolism were studied in longitudinal serum samples in 68 patients in order to evaluate their evolution in ARF and the association to multiple organ dysfunction (MOD). Ventilatory support was used in 39% of all ICU patients. The estimated incidence of ARF was 149.5/100 000 per year. Median tidal volumes used were higher than recommended. Overall mortality at 90 days was 31%. Plasma NT-pro-BNP and cell-free DNA were highly increased in the majority of patients. Both markers were independent predictors of 90-day mortality, but their discriminative power was at most moderate when used separately. The mortality was highest in those patients, in whom both biomarkers were over their separate cut-off values. Thus, combined use of these biomarkers may increase their clinical value in the mortality prediction. The markers of collagen metabolism changed significantly over time in surviving patients. None of these markers did associate with MOD in these patients.