Determinants of farmer retirement and farm succession in Finland

In the past decade, the Finnish agricultural sector has undergone rapid structural changes. The number of farms has decreased and the average farm size has increased when the number of farms transferred to new entrants has decreased. Part of the structural change in agriculture is manifested in early retirement programmes. In studying farmers exit behaviour in different countries, institutional differences, incentive programmes and constraints are found to matter. In Finland, farmers early retirement programmes were first introduced in 1974 and, during the last ten years, they have been carried out within the European Union framework for these programmes. The early retirement benefits are farmer specific and de-pend on the level of pension insurance the farmer has paid over his active farming years. In order to predict the future development of the agricultural sector, farmers have been frequently asked about their future plans and their plans for succession. However, the plans the farmers made for succession have been found to be time inconsistent. This study estimates the value of farmers stated succession plans in predicting revealed succession decisions. A stated succession plan exists when a farmer answers in a survey questionnaire that the farm is going to be transferred to a new entrant within a five-year period. The succession is revealed when the farm is transferred to a suc-cessor. Stated and revealed behaviour was estimated as a recursive Binomial Probit Model, which accounts for the censoring of the decision variables and controls for a potential correlation between the two equations. The results suggest that the succession plans, as stated by elderly farmers in the questionnaires, do not provide information that is significant and valuable in predicting true, com-pleted successions. Therefore, farmer exit should be analysed based on observed behaviour rather than on stated plans and intentions. As farm retirement plays a crucial role in determining the characteristics of structural change in agriculture, it is important to establish the factors which determine an exit from farming among eld-erly farmers and how off-farm income and income losses affect their exit choices. In this study, the observed choice of pension scheme by elderly farmers was analysed by a bivariate probit model. Despite some variations in significance and the effects of each factor, the ages of the farmer and spouse, the age and number of potential successors, farm size, income loss when retiring and the location of the farm together with the production line were found to be the most important determi-nants of early retirement and the transfer or closure of farms. Recently, the labour status of the spouse has been found to contribute significantly to individual retirement decisions. In this study, the effect of spousal retirement and economic incentives related to the timing of a farming couple s early retirement decision were analysed with a duration model. The results suggest that an expected pension in particular advances farm transfers. It was found that on farms operated by a couple, both early retirement and farm succession took place more often than on farms operated by a single person. However, the existence of a spouse delayed the timing of early retirement. Farming couples were found to co-ordinate their early retirement decisions when they both exit through agricultural retirement programmes, but such a co-ordination did not exist when one of the spouses retired under other pension schemes. Besides changes in the agricultural structure, the share and amount of off-farm income of a farm family s total income has also increased. In the study, the effect of off-farm income on farmers retirement decisions, in addition to other financial factors, was analysed. The unknown parameters were first estimated by a switching-type multivariate probit model and then by the simulated maxi-mum likelihood (SML) method, controlling for farmer specific fixed effects and serial correlation of the errors. The results suggest that elderly farmers off-farm income is a significant determinant in a farmer s choice to exit and close down the farm. However, off-farm income only has a short term effect on structural changes in agriculture since it does not significantly contribute to the timing of farm successions.

Intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy : genetic background, epidemiology and hepatobiliary consequences

Intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy (ICP) is the most common cholestatic liver disease during pregnancy. The reported incidence varies from 0.4 to 15% of full-term pregnancies. The etiology is heterogeneous but familial clustering is known to occur. Here we have studied the genetic background, epidemiology, and long-term hepatobiliary consequences of ICP. In a register-based nation-wide study (n=1 080 310) the incidence of ICP was 0.94% during 1987-2004. A slightly higher incidence, 1.3%, was found in a hospital-based series (n=5304) among women attending the University Hospital of Helsinki in 1992-1993. Of these 16% (11/69) were familial and showed a higher (92%) recurrence rate than the sporadic (40%) cases. In the register-based epidemiological study, advanced maternal age and, to a lesser degree, parity were identified as new risk factors for ICP. The risk was 3-fold higher in women >39 years of age compared to women <30 years. Multiple pregnancy also associated with an elevated risk. In a genetic study we found no association of ICP with the genes regulating bile salt transport (ABCB4, ABCB11 and ATP8B1). The livers of postmenopausal women with a history of ICP tolerated well the short-term exposure to oral and transdermal estradiol, although the doses used were higher than those in routine clinical use. The response of serum levels of sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) to oral estradiol was slightly reduced in the ICP group. Transdermal estradiol had no effect on C-reactive protein (CRP) or SHBG. A number of liver and biliary diseases were found to be associated with ICP. Women with a history of ICP showed elevated risks for non-alcoholic liver cirrhosis (8.2 CI 1.9-36), cholelithiasis and cholecystitis (3.7 CI 3.2-4.2), hepatitis C (3.5 CI 1.6-7.6) and non-alcoholic pancreatitis (3.2 CI 1.7-5.7). In conclusion, ICP complicates around 1% of all full-term pregnancies in Finland and its incidence has remained unchanged since 1987. It is familial in 16% of cases with a higher recurrence rate. Although the cause remains unknown, several risk factors, namely advanced maternal age, parity and multiple pregnancies, can be identified. Both oral and transdermal regimens of postmenopausal hormone therapy (HT) are safe for women with a history of ICP when liver function is considered. Some ICP patients are at risk of other liver and biliary diseases and, contrary to what has been thought, a follow-up is warranted.