Society by Numbers : Studies on Model-Based Explanations in the Social Sciences

The aim of this dissertation is to provide conceptual tools for the social scientist for clarifying, evaluating and comparing explanations of social phenomena based on formal mathematical models. The focus is on relatively simple theoretical models and simulations, not statistical models. These studies apply a theory of explanation according to which explanation is about tracing objective relations of dependence, knowledge of which enables answers to contrastive why and how-questions. This theory is developed further by delineating criteria for evaluating competing explanations and by applying the theory to social scientific modelling practices and to the key concepts of equilibrium and mechanism. The dissertation is comprised of an introductory essay and six published original research articles. The main theses about model-based explanations in the social sciences argued for in the articles are the following. 1) The concept of explanatory power, often used to argue for the superiority of one explanation over another, compasses five dimensions which are partially independent and involve some systematic trade-offs. 2) All equilibrium explanations do not causally explain the obtaining of the end equilibrium state with the multiple possible initial states. Instead, they often constitutively explain the macro property of the system with the micro properties of the parts (together with their organization). 3) There is an important ambivalence in the concept mechanism used in many model-based explanations and this difference corresponds to a difference between two alternative research heuristics. 4) Whether unrealistic assumptions in a model (such as a rational choice model) are detrimental to an explanation provided by the model depends on whether the representation of the explanatory dependency in the model is itself dependent on the particular unrealistic assumptions. Thus evaluating whether a literally false assumption in a model is problematic requires specifying exactly what is supposed to be explained and by what. 5) The question of whether an explanatory relationship depends on particular false assumptions can be explored with the process of derivational robustness analysis and the importance of robustness analysis accounts for some of the puzzling features of the tradition of model-building in economics. 6) The fact that economists have been relatively reluctant to use true agent-based simulations to formulate explanations can partially be explained by the specific ideal of scientific understanding implicit in the practise of orthodox economics.

Stand growth and management scenarios for Paraserianthes falcataria smallholder plantations in Indonesia

Paraserianthes falcataria is a very fast growing, light wood tree species, that has recently gained wide interest in Indonesia for industrial wood processing. At the moment the P. falcataria plantations managed by smallholders are lacking predefined management programmes for commercial wood production. The general objective of this study was to model the growth and yield of Paraserianthes falcataria stands managed by smallholders in Ciamis, West Java, Indonesia and to develop management scenarios for different production objectives. In total 106 circular sample plots with over 2300 P. falcataria trees were assessed on smallholder plantation inventory. In addition, information on market prices of P. falcataria wood was collected through rapid appraisals among industries. A tree growth model based on Chapman-Richards function was developed on three different site qualities and the stand management scenarios were developed under three management objectives: (1) low initial stand density with low intensity stand management, (2) high initial stand density with medium intensity of intervention, (3) high initial stand density and strong intensity of silvicultural interventions, repeated more than once. In general, the 9 recommended scenarios have rotation ages varying from 4 to 12 years, planting densities from 4x4 meters (625 trees ha-1) to 3x2 meters (1666 trees ha-1) and thinnings at intensities of removing 30 to 60 % of the standing trees. The highest annual income would be generated on high-quality with a scenario with initial planting density 3x2 m (1666 trees ha-1) one thinning at intensity of removing 55 % of the standing trees at the age of 2 years and clear cut at the age of 4 years.

Offering Development in the Restaurant Sector. A Comparison Between Customer Perceptions and Management Beliefs

The present study concentrates on a small – but important – area of marketing: offering development within the service sector, more exactly the restaurant sector. The empirical part of the study has been carried out in the Helsinki metropolitan area using six successful restaurants. First, a conceptual offering development model is developed based on how the management perceives the offering development processes. Second, customer perceptions of offerings and management beliefs about how the customers perceive the offerings are analysed. Finally, an extended offering development model is created based on the management perceptions (the first model) as well as on observed gaps between customer perceptions of offerings and management beliefs about the customer perceptions. The study reveals that customer perceptions and management beliefs are rather similar but also that some differences exist. These differences are taken into account in the extended offering development model (the second model). The empirical data was collected through interviews and surveys. All together 393 customers and 14 managers participated in the study. The study suggests that successful offering development has to be closely connected with the general strategy of the company. A shared vision within the company in combination with a systematic strategic offering development process create a sound basis for the practical development work. The main contribution of the study is the extended offering development model forming a framework for further studies within the area.

Pain measurement and management in elderly patients : Clinical studies in long term hospital care and after cardiac surgery

The proportion of patients over 75 years of age, receiving all different types of healthcare, is constantly increasing. The elderly undergo surgery and anaesthetic procedures more often than middle-aged patients. Poor pain management in the elderly is still an issue. Although the elderly consumes the greatest proportion of prescribed medicines in Western Europe, most clinical pharmacological studies have been performed in healthy volunteers or middle-aged patients. The aim of this study was to investigate pain measurement and management in cognitively impaired patients in long term hospital care and in cognitively normal elderly patients after cardiac surgery. This thesis incorporated 366 patients, including 86 home-dwelling or hospitalized elderly with chronic pain and 280 patients undergoing cardiac surgery with acute pain. The mean age of patients was 77 (SD ± 8) years and approximately 8400 pain measurements were performed with four pain scales: Verbal Rating Scale (VRS), the Visual Analogue Scale (VAS), the Red Wedge Scale (RWS), and the Facial Pain Scale (FPS). Cognitive function, depression, functional ability in daily life, postoperative sedation and postoperative confusion were assessed with MMSE, GDS, Barthel Index, RASS, and CAM-ICU, respectively. The effects and plasma concentrations of fentanyl and oxycodone were measured in elderly (≥ 75 years) and middle-aged patients (≤ 60 years) and the opioid-sparing effect of pregabalin was studied after cardiac surgery. The VRS pain scores after movement correlated with the Barthel Index. The VRS was most successful in the groups of demented patients (MMSE 17-23, 11-16 and ≤ 10) and in elderly patients on the first day after cardiac surgery. The elderly had a higher plasma concentration of fentanyl at the end of surgery than younger patients. The plasma concentrations of oxycodone were comparable between the groups. Pain intensity on the VRS was lower and the sedation scores were higher in the elderly. Total oxycodone consumption during five postoperative days was reduced by 48% and the CAM-ICU scores were higher on the first postoperative day in the pregabalin group. The incidence of postoperative pain during movement was lower in the pregabalin group three months after surgery. This investigation demonstrates that chronic pain did not seem to impair daily activities in home-dwelling Finnish elderly. The VRS appeared to be applicable for elderly patients with clear cognitive dysfunction (MMSE ≤17) and it was the most feasible pain scale for the early postoperative period after cardiac surgery. After cardiac surgery, plasma concentrations of fentanyl in elderly were elevated, although oxycodone concentrations were at similar level compared to middle-aged patients. The elderly had less pain and were more sedated after doses of oxycodone. Therefore, particular attention must be given to individual dosing of the opioids in elderly surgical patients, who often need a smaller amount for adequate analgesia than middle-aged patients. The administration of pregabalin reduced postoperative oxycodone consumption after cardiac surgery. Pregabalin-treated patients had less confusion, and additionally to less postoperative pain on the first postoperative day and during movement at three months post-surgery. Pregabalin might be a new alternative as analgesic for acute postoperative and chronic pain management in the elderly. Its clinical role and safety remains to be verified in large-scale randomized and controlled studies. In the future, many clinical trials in the older category of patients will be needed to facilitate improvements in health care methods.