13 resultados para 010406 Stochastic Analysis and Modelling

em Helda - Digital Repository of University of Helsinki


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This thesis contains three subject areas concerning particulate matter in urban area air quality: 1) Analysis of the measured concentrations of particulate matter mass concentrations in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area (HMA) in different locations in relation to traffic sources, and at different times of year and day. 2) The evolution of traffic exhaust originated particulate matter number concentrations and sizes in local street scale are studied by a combination of a dispersion model and an aerosol process model. 3) Some situations of high particulate matter concentrations are analysed with regard to their meteorological origins, especially temperature inversion situations, in the HMA and three other European cities. The prediction of the occurrence of meteorological conditions conducive to elevated particulate matter concentrations in the studied cities is examined. The performance of current numerical weather forecasting models in the case of air pollution episode situations is considered. The study of the ambient measurements revealed clear diurnal variation of the PM10 concentrations in the HMA measurement sites, irrespective of the year and the season of the year. The diurnal variation of local vehicular traffic flows seemed to have no substantial correlation with the PM2.5 concentrations, indicating that the PM10 concentrations were originated mainly from local vehicular traffic (direct emissions and suspension), while the PM2.5 concentrations were mostly of regionally and long-range transported origin. The modelling study of traffic exhaust dispersion and transformation showed that the number concentrations of particles originating from street traffic exhaust undergo a substantial change during the first tens of seconds after being emitted from the vehicle tailpipe. The dilution process was shown to dominate total number concentrations. Minimal effect of both condensation and coagulation was seen in the Aitken mode number concentrations. The included air pollution episodes were chosen on the basis of occurrence in either winter or spring, and having at least partly local origin. In the HMA, air pollution episodes were shown to be linked to predominantly stable atmospheric conditions with high atmospheric pressure and low wind speeds in conjunction with relatively low ambient temperatures. For the other European cities studied, the best meteorological predictors for the elevated concentrations of PM10 were shown to be temporal (hourly) evolutions of temperature inversions, stable atmospheric stability and in some cases, wind speed. Concerning the weather prediction during particulate matter related air pollution episodes, the use of the studied models were found to overpredict pollutant dispersion, leading to underprediction of pollutant concentration levels.

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The aim of this thesis is to develop a fully automatic lameness detection system that operates in a milking robot. The instrumentation, measurement software, algorithms for data analysis and a neural network model for lameness detection were developed. Automatic milking has become a common practice in dairy husbandry, and in the year 2006 about 4000 farms worldwide used over 6000 milking robots. There is a worldwide movement with the objective of fully automating every process from feeding to milking. Increase in automation is a consequence of increasing farm sizes, the demand for more efficient production and the growth of labour costs. As the level of automation increases, the time that the cattle keeper uses for monitoring animals often decreases. This has created a need for systems for automatically monitoring the health of farm animals. The popularity of milking robots also offers a new and unique possibility to monitor animals in a single confined space up to four times daily. Lameness is a crucial welfare issue in the modern dairy industry. Limb disorders cause serious welfare, health and economic problems especially in loose housing of cattle. Lameness causes losses in milk production and leads to early culling of animals. These costs could be reduced with early identification and treatment. At present, only a few methods for automatically detecting lameness have been developed, and the most common methods used for lameness detection and assessment are various visual locomotion scoring systems. The problem with locomotion scoring is that it needs experience to be conducted properly, it is labour intensive as an on-farm method and the results are subjective. A four balance system for measuring the leg load distribution of dairy cows during milking in order to detect lameness was developed and set up in the University of Helsinki Research farm Suitia. The leg weights of 73 cows were successfully recorded during almost 10,000 robotic milkings over a period of 5 months. The cows were locomotion scored weekly, and the lame cows were inspected clinically for hoof lesions. Unsuccessful measurements, caused by cows standing outside the balances, were removed from the data with a special algorithm, and the mean leg loads and the number of kicks during milking was calculated. In order to develop an expert system to automatically detect lameness cases, a model was needed. A probabilistic neural network (PNN) classifier model was chosen for the task. The data was divided in two parts and 5,074 measurements from 37 cows were used to train the model. The operation of the model was evaluated for its ability to detect lameness in the validating dataset, which had 4,868 measurements from 36 cows. The model was able to classify 96% of the measurements correctly as sound or lame cows, and 100% of the lameness cases in the validation data were identified. The number of measurements causing false alarms was 1.1%. The developed model has the potential to be used for on-farm decision support and can be used in a real-time lameness monitoring system.

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Arabinoxylo-oligosaccharides (AXOS) can be prepared enzymatically from arabinoxylans (AX) and AXOS are known to possess prebiotic potential. Here the structural features of 10 cereal AX were examined. AX were hydrolysed by Shearzyme® to prepare AXOS, and their structures were fully analysed. The prebiotic potential of the purified AXOS was studied in the fermentation experiments with bifidobacteria and faecal microbiota. In AX extracted from flours and bran, high amounts of a-L-Araf units are attached to the b-D-Xylp main chain, whereas moderate or low degree of substitution was found from husks, cob and straw. Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy showed that flour and bran AX contain high amounts of a-L-Araf units bound to the O-3 of b-D-Xylp residues and doubly substituted b-D-Xylp units with a-L-Araf substituents at O-2 and O-3. Barley husk and corn cob AX contain high amounts of b-D-Xylp(1→2)-a-L-Araf(1→3) side chains, which can also be found in AX from oat spelts and rice husks, and in lesser amounts in wheat straw AX. Rye and wheat flour AX and oat spelt AX were hydrolysed by Shearzyme® (with Aspergillus aculeatus GH10 endo-1,4-b-D-xylanase as the main enzyme) for the production of AXOS on a milligram scale. The AXOS were purified and their structures fully analysed, using mass spectrometry (MS) and 1D and 2D NMR spectroscopy. Monosubstituted xylobiose and xylotriose with a-L-Araf attached to the O-3 or O-2 of the nonreducing end b-D-Xylp unit and disubstituted AXOS with two a-L-Araf units at the nonreducing end b-D-Xylp unit of xylobiose or xylotriose were produced. Xylobiose with b-D-Xylp(1→2)-a-L-Araf(1→3) side chain was also purified. These AXOS were used as standards in further identification and quantification of corresponding AXOS from the hydrolysates in high-performance anion-exchange chromatography with pulsed amperometric detection (HPAEC-PAD) analysis. The prebiotic potential of AXOS was tested in in vitro fermentation experiments. Bifidobacterium adolescentis ATCC 15703 and B. longum ATCC 15707 utilized AXOS from the AX hydrolysates. Both species released L-arabinose from AXOS, but B. adolescentis consumed the XOS formed, whereas B. longum fermented the L-arabinose released. The third species tested, B. breve ATCC 15700, grew poorly on these substrates. When cultivated on pure AXOS, the bifidobacterial mixture utilized pure singly substituted AXOS almost completely, but no growth was detected with pure doubly substituted AXOS as substrates. However, doubly substituted AXOS were utilized from the mixture of xylose, XOS and AXOS. Faecal microbiota utilized both pure singly and doubly substituted AXOS. Thus, a mixture of singly and doubly substituted AXOS could function as a suitable, slowly fermenting prebiotic substance. This thesis contributes to the structural information on cereal AX and preparation of mono and doubly substituted AXOS from AX. Understanding the utilization strategies is fundamental in evaluating the prebiotic potential of AXOS. Further research is still required before AXOS can be used in applications for human consumption.

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Miniaturized mass spectrometric ionization techniques for environmental analysis and bioanalysis Novel miniaturized mass spectrometric ionization techniques based on atmospheric pressure chemical ionization (APCI) and atmospheric pressure photoionization (APPI) were studied and evaluated in the analysis of environmental samples and biosamples. The three analytical systems investigated here were gas chromatography-microchip atmospheric pressure chemical ionization-mass spectrometry (GC-µAPCI-MS) and gas chromatography-microchip atmospheric pressure photoionization-mass spectrometry (GC-µAPPI-MS), where sample pretreatment and chromatographic separation precede ionization, and desorption atmospheric pressure photoionization-mass spectrometry (DAPPI-MS), where the samples are analyzed either as such or after minimal pretreatment. The gas chromatography-microchip atmospheric pressure ionization-mass spectrometry (GC-µAPI-MS) instrumentations were used in the analysis of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in negative ion mode and 2-quinolinone-derived selective androgen receptor modulators (SARMs) in positive ion mode. The analytical characteristics (i.e., limits of detection, linear ranges, and repeatabilities) of the methods were evaluated with PCB standards and SARMs in urine. All methods showed good analytical characteristics and potential for quantitative environmental analysis or bioanalysis. Desorption and ionization mechanisms in DAPPI were studied. Desorption was found to be a thermal process, with the efficiency strongly depending on thermal conductivity of the sampling surface. Probably the size and polarity of the analyte also play a role. In positive ion mode, the ionization is dependent on the ionization energy and proton affinity of the analyte and the spray solvent, while in negative ion mode the ionization mechanism is determined by the electron affinity and gas-phase acidity of the analyte and the spray solvent. DAPPI-MS was tested in the fast screening analysis of environmental, food, and forensic samples, and the results demonstrated the feasibility of DAPPI-MS for rapid screening analysis of authentic samples.

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The Taita Hills in southeastern Kenya form the northernmost part of Africa’s Eastern Arc Mountains, which have been identified by Conservation International as one of the top ten biodiversity hotspots on Earth. As with many areas of the developing world, over recent decades the Taita Hills have experienced significant population growth leading to associated major changes in land use and land cover (LULC), as well as escalating land degradation, particularly soil erosion. Multi-temporal medium resolution multispectral optical satellite data, such as imagery from the SPOT HRV, HRVIR, and HRG sensors, provides a valuable source of information for environmental monitoring and modelling at a landscape level at local and regional scales. However, utilization of multi-temporal SPOT data in quantitative remote sensing studies requires the removal of atmospheric effects and the derivation of surface reflectance factor. Furthermore, for areas of rugged terrain, such as the Taita Hills, topographic correction is necessary to derive comparable reflectance throughout a SPOT scene. Reliable monitoring of LULC change over time and modelling of land degradation and human population distribution and abundance are of crucial importance to sustainable development, natural resource management, biodiversity conservation, and understanding and mitigating climate change and its impacts. The main purpose of this thesis was to develop and validate enhanced processing of SPOT satellite imagery for use in environmental monitoring and modelling at a landscape level, in regions of the developing world with limited ancillary data availability. The Taita Hills formed the application study site, whilst the Helsinki metropolitan region was used as a control site for validation and assessment of the applied atmospheric correction techniques, where multiangular reflectance field measurements were taken and where horizontal visibility meteorological data concurrent with image acquisition were available. The proposed historical empirical line method (HELM) for absolute atmospheric correction was found to be the only applied technique that could derive surface reflectance factor within an RMSE of < 0.02 ps in the SPOT visible and near-infrared bands; an accuracy level identified as a benchmark for successful atmospheric correction. A multi-scale segmentation/object relationship modelling (MSS/ORM) approach was applied to map LULC in the Taita Hills from the multi-temporal SPOT imagery. This object-based procedure was shown to derive significant improvements over a uni-scale maximum-likelihood technique. The derived LULC data was used in combination with low cost GIS geospatial layers describing elevation, rainfall and soil type, to model degradation in the Taita Hills in the form of potential soil loss, utilizing the simple universal soil loss equation (USLE). Furthermore, human population distribution and abundance were modelled with satisfactory results using only SPOT and GIS derived data and non-Gaussian predictive modelling techniques. The SPOT derived LULC data was found to be unnecessary as a predictor because the first and second order image texture measurements had greater power to explain variation in dwelling unit occurrence and abundance. The ability of the procedures to be implemented locally in the developing world using low-cost or freely available data and software was considered. The techniques discussed in this thesis are considered equally applicable to other medium- and high-resolution optical satellite imagery, as well the utilized SPOT data.

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This study offers a reconstruction and critical evaluation of globalization theory, a perspective that has been central for sociology and cultural studies in recent decades, from the viewpoint of media and communications. As the study shows, sociological and cultural globalization theorists rely heavily on arguments concerning media and communications, especially the so-called new information and communication technologies, in the construction of their frameworks. Together with deepening the understanding of globalization theory, the study gives new critical knowledge of the problematic consequences that follow from such strong investment in media and communications in contemporary theory. The book is divided into four parts. The first part presents the research problem, the approach and the theoretical contexts of the study. Followed by the introduction in Chapter 1, I identify the core elements of globalization theory in Chapter 2. At the heart of globalization theory is the claim that recent decades have witnessed massive changes in the spatio-temporal constitution of society, caused by new media and communications in particular, and that these changes necessitate the rethinking of the foundations of social theory as a whole. Chapter 3 introduces three paradigms of media research the political economy of media, cultural studies and medium theory the discussion of which will make it easier to understand the key issues and controversies that emerge in academic globalization theorists treatment of media and communications. The next two parts offer a close reading of four theorists whose works I use as entry points into academic debates on globalization. I argue that we can make sense of mainstream positions on globalization by dividing them into two paradigms: on the one hand, media-technological explanations of globalization and, on the other, cultural globalization theory. As examples of the former, I discuss the works of Manuel Castells (Chapter 4) and Scott Lash (Chapter 5). I maintain that their analyses of globalization processes are overtly media-centric and result in an unhistorical and uncritical understanding of social power in an era of capitalist globalization. A related evaluation of the second paradigm (cultural globalization theory), as exemplified by Arjun Appadurai and John Tomlinson, is presented in Chapter 6. I argue that due to their rejection of the importance of nation states and the notion of cultural imperialism for cultural analysis, and their replacement with a framework of media-generated deterritorializations and flows, these theorists underplay the importance of the neoliberalization of cultures throughout the world. The fourth part (Chapter 7) presents a central research finding of this study, namely that the media-centrism of globalization theory can be understood in the context of the emergence of neoliberalism. I find it problematic that at the same time when capitalist dynamics have been strengthened in social and cultural life, advocates of globalization theory have directed attention to media-technological changes and their sweeping socio-cultural consequences, instead of analyzing the powerful material forces that shape the society and the culture. I further argue that this shift serves not only analytical but also utopian functions, that is, the longing for a better world in times when such longing is otherwise considered impracticable.

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XVIII IUFRO World Congress, Ljubljana 1986.

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XVIII IUFRO World Congress, Ljubljana 1986.

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