Population projection for Namibia 2011-2020 - With an estimation of the impact of HIV/AIDS

This study presents a population projection for Namibia for years 2011–2020. In many countries of sub-Saharan Africa, including Namibia, the population growth is still continuing even though the fertility rates have declined. However, many of these countries suffer from a large HIV epidemic that is slowing down the population growth. In Namibia, the epidemic has been severe. Therefore, it is important to assess the effect of HIV/AIDS on the population of Namibia in the future. Demographic research on Namibia has not been very extensive, and data on population is not widely available. According to the studies made, fertility has been shown to be generally declining and mortality has been significantly increasing due to AIDS. Previous population projections predict population growth for Namibia in the near future, yet HIV/AIDS is affecting the future population developments. For the projection constructed in this study, data on population is taken from the two most recent censuses, from 1991 and 2001. Data on HIV is available from HIV Sentinel Surveys 1992–2008, which test pregnant women for HIV in antenatal clinics. Additional data are collected from different sources and recent studies. The projection is made with software (EPP and Spectrum) specially designed for developing countries with scarce data. The projection includes two main scenarios which have different assumptions concerning the development of the HIV epidemic. In addition, two hypothetical scenarios are made: the first considering the case where HIV epidemic would never have existed and the second considering the case where HIV treatment would never have existed. The results indicate population growth for Namibia. Population in the 2001 census was 1.83 million and is projected to result in 2.38/2.39 million in 2020 in the first two scenarios. Without HIV, population would be 2.61 million and without treatment 2.30 million in 2020. Urban population is growing faster than rural. Even though AIDS is increasing mortality, the past high fertility rates still keep young adult age groups quite large. The HIV epidemic shows to be slowing down, but it is still increasing the mortality of the working-aged population. The initiation of HIV treatment in 2004 in the public sector seems to have had an effect on many projected indicators, diminishing the impact of HIV on the population. For example, the rise of mortality is slowing down.

Intraspecific variation in brain size and architecture : population divergence and phenotypic plasticity

Brain size and architecture exhibit great evolutionary and ontogenetic variation. Yet, studies on population variation (within a single species) in brain size and architecture, or in brain plasticity induced by ecologically relevant biotic factors have been largely overlooked. Here, I address the following questions: (i) do locally adapted populations differ in brain size and architecture, (ii) can the biotic environment induce brain plasticity, and (iii) do locally adapted populations differ in levels of brain plasticity? In the first two chapters I report large variation in both absolute and relative brain size, as well as in the relative sizes of brain parts, among divergent nine-spined stickleback (Pungitius pungitius) populations. Some traits show habitat-dependent divergence, implying natural selection being responsible for the observed patterns. Namely, marine sticklebacks have relatively larger bulbi olfactorii (chemosensory centre) and telencephala (involved in learning) than pond sticklebacks. Further, I demonstrate the importance of common garden studies in drawing firm evolutionary conclusions. In the following three chapters I show how the social environment and perceived predation risk shapes brain development. In common frog (Rana temporaria) tadpoles, I demonstrate that under the highest per capita predation risk, tadpoles develop smaller brains than in less risky situations, while high tadpole density results in enlarged tectum opticum (visual brain centre). Visual contact with conspecifics induces enlarged tecta optica in nine-spined sticklebacks, whereas when only olfactory cues from conspecifics are available, bulbus olfactorius become enlarged.Perceived predation risk results in smaller hypothalami (complex function) in sticklebacks. Further, group-living has a negative effect on relative brain size in the competition-adapted pond sticklebacks, but not in the predation-adapted marine sticklebacks. Perceived predation risk induces enlargement of bulbus olfactorius in pond sticklebacks, but not in marine sticklebacks who have larger bulbi olfactorii than pond fish regardless of predation. In sum, my studies demonstrate how applying a microevolutionary approach can help us to understand the enormous variation observed in the brains of wild animals a point-of-view which I high-light in the closing review chapter of my thesis.