81 resultados para retention value prediction


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The discussion of a service-dominant logic has made the findings of decades of service marketing research a topic of interest for marketing at large. Some fundamental aspects of the logic such as value creation and its marketing implications are more complex than they have been treated as so far and need to be further developed to serve marketing theory and practice well. Following the analysis in the present article it is argued that although customers are co-producers in service processes, according to the value-in-use notion adopted in the contemporary marketing and management literature they are fundamentally the creators of value for themselves. Furthermore, it is concluded that although by providing goods and services as input resources into customers’ consumption and value-generating processes firms are fundamentally value facilitators, interactions with customers that exist or can be created enable firms to engage themselves with their customers’ processes and thereby they become co-creators of value with their customers. As marketing implications it is observed that 1) the goal of marketing is to support customers’ value creation, 2) following a service logic and due to the existence of interactions where the firm’s and the customer’s processes merge into an integrated joint value creation process, the firm is not restricted to making value propositions only, but can directly and actively influence the customer’s value fulfilment as well and extend its marketing process to include activities during customer-firm interactions, and 3) although all goods and services are consumed as service, customers’ purchasing decisions can be expected to be dependant of whether they have the skills and interest to use a resource, such as a good, as service or want to buy extended market offerings including process-related elements. Finally, the analysis concludes with five service logic theses.

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A large volume of literature suggests that information asymmetry resulting from the spatial separation between investors and investments have a significant impact on the composition of investors’ domestic and international portfolios. I show that institutional factors affecting trading in tangible goods help explain a substantial portion of investors’ spatial bias. More importantly, I demonstrate that an information flow medium with breadth and richness directly linked to the bilateral commitment of resources between countries, that I measure by their trading intensity in tangible goods, is consistent with the prevailing country allocation in investors’ international portfolios.

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The underpinning logic of value co-creation in service logic is analysed. It is observed that three of the ten foundational premises of the so-called service-dominant logic are problematic and do not support an understanding of value-co-creation and creation that is meaningful for theoretical development and decision making in business and marketing practice. Without a thorough understanding of the interaction concept, the locus and nature of value co-creation cannot be identified. Based on the analysis in the present article it is observed that a unique contribution of a service perspective on business (service logic) is not that customers always are co-creators of value, but that under certain circumstances the service provider gets opportunities to co-create value together with its customers. Finally, the three problematic premises are reformulated accordingly.

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Electric activity of the heart consists of repeated cardiomyocyte depolarizations and repolarizations. Abnormalities in repolarization predispose to ventricular arrhythmias. In body surface electrocardiogram, ventricular repolarization generates the T wave. Several electrocardiographic measures have been developed both for clinical and research purposes to detect repolarization abnormalities. The study aim was to investigate modifiers of ventricular repolarization with the focus on the relationship of the left ventricular mass, antihypertensive drugs, and common gene variants, to electrocardiographic repolarization parameters. The prognostic value of repolarization parameters was also assessed. The study subjects originated from a population of more than 200 middle-aged hypertensive men attending the GENRES hypertension study, and from an epidemiological survey, the Health 2000 Study, including more than 6000 participants. Ventricular repolarization was analysed from digital standard 12-lead resting electrocardiograms with two QT-interval based repolarization parameters (QT interval, T-wave peak to T-wave end interval) and with a set of four T-wave morphology parameters. The results showed that in hypertensive men, a linear change in repolarization parameters is present even in the normal range of left ventricular mass, and that even mild left ventricular hypertrophy is associated with potentially adverse electrocardiographic repolarization changes. In addition, treatments with losartan, bisoprolol, amlodipine, and hydrochlorothiazide have divergent short-term effects on repolarization parameters in hypertensive men. Analyses of the general population sample showed that single nucleotide polymorphisms in KCNH2, KCNE1, and NOS1AP genes are associated with changes in QT-interval based repolarization parameters but not consistently with T-wave morphology parameters. T-wave morphology parameters, but not QT interval or T-wave peak to T-wave end interval, provided independent prognostic information on mortality. The prognostic value was specifically related to cardiovascular mortality. The results indicate that, in hypertension, altered ventricular repolarization is already present in mild left ventricular mass increase, and that commonly used antihypertensive drugs may relatively rapidly and treatment-specifically modify electrocardiographic repolarization parameters. Common variants in cardiac ion channel genes and NOS1AP gene may also modify repolarization-related arrhythmia vulnerability. In the general population, T-wave morphology parameters may be useful in the risk assessment of cardiovascular mortality.

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Lahopuun määrästä ja sijoittumisesta ollaan kiinnostuneita paitsi elinympäristöjen monimuotoisuuden, myös ilmakehän hiilen varastoinnin kannalta. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli kehittää aluepohjainen laserkeilausdataa hyödyntävä malli lahopuukohteiden paikantamiseksi ja lahopuun määrän estimoimiseksi. Samalla tutkittiin mallin selityskyvyn muuttumista mallinnettavan ruudun kokoa suurennettaessa. Tutkimusalue sijaitsi Itä-Suomessa Sonkajärvellä ja koostui pääasiassa nuorista hoidetuista talousmetsistä. Tutkimuksessa käytettiin harvapulssista laserkeilausdataa sekä kaistoittain mitattua maastodataa kuolleesta puuaineksesta. Aineisto jaettiin siten, että neljäsosa datasta oli käytössä mallinnusta varten ja loput varattiin valmiiden mallien testaamiseen. Lahopuun mallintamisessa käytettiin sekä parametrista että ei-parametrista mallinnusmenetelmää. Logistisen regression avulla erikokoisille (0,04, 0,20, 0,32, 0,52 ja 1,00 ha) ruuduille ennustettiin todennäköisyys lahopuun esiintymiselle. Muodostettujen mallien selittävät muuttujat valittiin 80 laserpiirteen ja näiden muunnoksien joukosta. Mallien selittävät muuttujat valittiin kolmessa vaiheessa. Aluksi muuttujia tarkasteltiin visuaalisesti kuvaamalla ne lahopuumäärän suhteen. Ensimmäisessä vaiheessa sopivimmiksi arvioitujen muuttujien selityskykyä testattiin mallinnuksen toisessa vaiheessa yhden muuttujan mallien avulla. Lopullisessa usean muuttujan mallissa selittävien muuttujien kriteerinä oli tilastollinen merkitsevyys 5 % riskitasolla. 0,20 hehtaarin ruutukoolle luotu malli parametrisoitiin muun kokoisille ruuduille. Logistisella regressiolla toteutetun parametrisen mallintamisen lisäksi, 0,04 ja 1,0 hehtaarin ruutukokojen aineistot luokiteltiin ei-parametrisen CART-mallinnuksen (Classification and Regression Trees) avulla. CARTmenetelmällä etsittiin aineistosta vaikeasti havaittavia epälineaarisia riippuvuuksia laserpiirteiden ja lahopuumäärän välillä. CART-luokittelu tehtiin sekä lahopuustoisuuden että lahopuutilavuuden suhteen. CART-luokituksella päästiin logistista regressiota parempiin tuloksiin ruutujen luokituksessa lahopuustoisuuden suhteen. Logistisella mallilla tehty luokitus parani ruutukoon suurentuessa 0,04 ha:sta(kappa 0,19) 0,32 ha:iin asti (kappa 0,38). 0,52 ha:n ruutukoolla luokituksen kappa-arvo kääntyi laskuun (kappa 0,32) ja laski edelleen hehtaarin ruutukokoon saakka (kappa 0,26). CART-luokitus parani ruutukoon kasvaessa. Luokitustulokset olivat logistista mallinnusta parempia sekä 0,04 ha:n (kappa 0,24) että 1,0 ha:n (kappa 0,52) ruutukoolla. CART-malleilla määritettyjen ruutukohtaisten lahopuutilavuuksien suhteellinen RMSE pieneni ruutukoon kasvaessa. 0,04 hehtaarin ruutukoolla koko aineiston lahopuumäärän suhteellinen RMSE oli 197,1 %, kun hehtaarin ruutukoolla vastaava luku oli 120,3 %. Tämän tutkimuksen tulosten perusteella voidaan todeta, että maastossa mitatun lahopuumäärän ja tutkimuksessa käytettyjen laserpiirteiden yhteys on pienellä ruutukoolla hyvin heikko, mutta vahvistuu hieman ruutukoon kasvaessa. Kun mallinnuksessa käytetty ruutukoko kasvaa, pienialaisten lahopuukeskittymien havaitseminen kuitenkin vaikeutuu. Tutkimuksessa kohteen lahopuustoisuus pystyttiin kartoittamaan kohtuullisesti suurella ruutukoolla, mutta pienialaisten kohteiden kartoittaminen ei onnistunut käytetyillä menetelmillä. Pienialaisten kohteiden paikantaminen laserkeilauksen avulla edellyttää jatkotutkimusta erityisesti tiheäpulssisen laserdatan käytöstä lahopuuinventoinneissa.

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The increasing focus of relationship marketing and customer relationship management (CRM) studies on issues of customer profitability has led to the emergence of an area of research on profitable customer management. Nevertheless, there is a notable lack of empirical research examining the current practices of firms specifically with regard to the profitable management of customer relationships according to the approaches suggested in theory. This thesis fills this research gap by exploring profitable customer management in the retail banking sector. Several topics are covered, including marketing metrics and accountability; challenges in the implementation of profitable customer management approaches in practice; analytic versus heuristic (‘rule of thumb’) decision making; and the modification of costly customer behavior in order to increase customer profitability, customer lifetime value (CLV), and customer equity, i.e. the financial value of the customer base. The thesis critically reviews the concept of customer equity and proposes a Customer Equity Scorecard, providing a starting point for a constructive dialog between marketing and finance concerning the development of appropriate metrics to measure marketing outcomes. Since customer management and measurement issues go hand in hand, profitable customer management is contingent on both marketing management skills and financial measurement skills. A clear gap between marketing theory and practice regarding profitable customer management is also identified. The findings show that key customer management aspects that have been proposed within the literature on profitable customer management for many years, are not being actively applied by the banks included in the research. Instead, several areas of customer management decision making are found to be influenced by heuristics. This dilemma for marketing accountability is addressed by emphasizing that CLV and customer equity, which are aggregate metrics, only provide certain indications regarding the relative value of customers and the approximate value of the customer base (or groups of customers), respectively. The value created by marketing manifests itself in the effect of marketing actions on customer perceptions, behavior, and ultimately the components of CLV, namely revenues, costs, risk, and retention, as well as additional components of customer equity, such as customer acquisition. The thesis also points out that although costs are a crucial component of CLV, they have largely been neglected in prior CRM research. Cost-cutting has often been viewed negatively in customer-focused marketing literature on service quality and customer profitability, but the case studies in this thesis demonstrate that reduced costs do not necessarily have to lead to lower service quality, customer retention, and customer-related revenues. Consequently, this thesis provides an expanded foundation upon which marketers can stake their claim for accountability. By focusing on the range of drivers and all of the components of CLV and customer equity, marketing has the potential to provide specific evidence concerning how various activities have affected the drivers and components of CLV within different groups of customers, and the implications for customer equity on a customer base level.

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The Thesis presents a state-space model for a basketball league and a Kalman filter algorithm for the estimation of the state of the league. In the state-space model, each of the basketball teams is associated with a rating that represents its strength compared to the other teams. The ratings are assumed to evolve in time following a stochastic process with independent Gaussian increments. The estimation of the team ratings is based on the observed game scores that are assumed to depend linearly on the true strengths of the teams and independent Gaussian noise. The team ratings are estimated using a recursive Kalman filter algorithm that produces least squares optimal estimates for the team strengths and predictions for the scores of the future games. Additionally, if the Gaussianity assumption holds, the predictions given by the Kalman filter maximize the likelihood of the observed scores. The team ratings allow probabilistic inference about the ranking of the teams and their relative strengths as well as about the teams’ winning probabilities in future games. The predictions about the winners of the games are correct 65-70% of the time. The team ratings explain 16% of the random variation observed in the game scores. Furthermore, the winning probabilities given by the model are concurrent with the observed scores. The state-space model includes four independent parameters that involve the variances of noise terms and the home court advantage observed in the scores. The Thesis presents the estimation of these parameters using the maximum likelihood method as well as using other techniques. The Thesis also gives various example analyses related to the American professional basketball league, i.e., National Basketball Association (NBA), and regular seasons played in year 2005 through 2010. Additionally, the season 2009-2010 is discussed in full detail, including the playoffs.