Determinants of Profit Sharing in the Finnish Sector

This study investigates the role of factors that determine individual employee’s and firms participation in profit sharing schemes. Using a large panel data of Finnish employees for the period 1996-2000 we analyse individual and workplace characteristics that make firms employ profit sharing schemes and workers susceptible of receiving profit sharing bonuses. In particular two links between profit sharing schemes and workers performance have been analysed. First, in looking at profit sharing as an incentive device the results show a positive link between firm size and monitoring costs. Second, we find that younger individuals with higher mean salary and capacity to bear risk are more susceptible to profit sharing schemes. The industrial sector in which the individual is employed is also an important determinant factor. We find weak evidence of a relationship between performance of firms and employment of profit sharing schemes at the industrial sector level.

The Impact of the EMU on International Portfolio Investments

This paper analyses the impact of the launch of the European Monetary Union (EMU) on the allocation of international portfolio investments. The initiation of the EMU provides an opportunity for comparison of competing theoretical explanations for investment behavior. Models stressing the diversification motive would predict that the increased dependence between countries participating in the EMU should reduce the attractiveness of portfolio holdings in other EMU countries. Models based on asymmetric information would instead emphasize the increased intensity in the flow of information resulting from an increase in cross border transactions between the EMU countries. The consequent decline in information asymmetry should increase, rather than reduce portfolio holdings in other EMU countries. Our results based on the allocation of Finnish foreign portfolio investment support the information-based explanation against predictions based on the diversification motive.

An Expenditure-Based Estimation of Self-Employment Income Underreporting in Finland

This paper estimates the extent of income underreporting by the self-employed in Finland using the expenditure based approach developed by Pissarides & Weber (1989). Household spending data are for the years 1994 to 1996. The results suggest that self-employment income in Finland is underreported by some 27% on average. Since income for the self-employed is about 8 % of all incomes in Finland, the size of this part of the black economy in Finland is estimated to be about 2,3% of GDP.

New Evidence on the Properties of the Financial Statement Information Pricing Process

This study contributes to our knowledge of how information contained in financial statements is interpreted and priced by the stock market in two aspects. First, the empirical findings indicate that investors interpret some of the information contained in new financial statements in the context of the information of prior financial statements. Second, two central hypotheses offered in earlier literature to explain the significant connection between publicly available financial statement information and future abnormal returns, that the signals proxy for risk and that the information is priced with a delay, are evaluated utilizing a new methodology. It is found that the mentioned significant connection for some financial statement signals can be explained by that the signals proxy for risk and for other financial statement signals by that the information contained in the signals is priced with a delay.

The Impact of New Capital Requirements on the Portfolio Decisions of Finnish Pension Institutions

This paper examines the potential impact of new capital requirements on asset allocations of Finnish pension institutions. We describe the new requirements and consider portfolio construction to minimize regulatory capital, given the investor’s preferred level of expected return. Results identify portfolio transactions that enhance expected return without increasing capital needs. Regulation calls for portfolio diversification and prudence in management, but this paper shows that market participants can exploit inconsistencies in regulation. Possible future consequences include capital outflows from the pension system and an unintended decrease in pre-funding of old-age pensions.

With Good Reputation Size Does not Matter: Issue Frequency and the Determinants of Debt Maturity

This paper examines empirically the effect firm reputation has on the determinants of debt maturity. Utilising data from European primary bond market between 1999 and 2005, I find that the maturity choice of issuers with a higher reputation is less sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, market credit risk-premiums, prevailing firm credit quality and size of the debt issue. The annualised coupon payments are shown to be a significant factor in determining the debt maturity and reveal a monotonously increasing relationship between credit quality and debt maturity once controlled for. Finally, I show that issuers lacking a credit rating have an implied credit quality positioned between investment-grade and speculative-grade debt.

How Do Different Types of Investors React to New Financial Statement Information?

The study contributes to our understanding of the forces that drive the stock market by investigating how different types of investors react to new financial statement information. Using the extremely comprehensive official register of share holdings in Finland, we find that the majority of investors are more probable to sell (buy) stocks in a company after a positive (negative) earnings surprise, and show a bias towards buying after the disclosure of new financial statement information. Large investors, on the other hand, show behavior opposite to that of the majority of investors in the market. Further, foreign investors show behavior similar to that of domestic investors. We suggest investor overconfidence and asymmetric information as possible explanations for the documented behavior.

The Day of the Week Effect and Option Pricing - A Study of the German Option Market

The use of different time units in option pricing may lead to inconsistent estimates of time decay and spurious jumps in implied volatilities. Different time units in the pricing model leads to different implied volatilities although the option price itself is the same.The chosen time unit should make it necessary to adjust the volatility parameter only when there are some fundamental reasons for it and not due to wrong specifications of the model. This paper examined the effects of option pricing using different time hypotheses and empirically investigated which time frame the option markets in Germany employ over weekdays. The paper specifically tries to get a picture of how the market prices options. The results seem to verify that the German market behaves in a fashion that deviates from the most traditional time units in option pricing, calendar and trading days. The study also showed that the implied volatility of Thursdays was somewhat higher and thus differed from the pattern of other days of the week. Using a GARCH model to further investigate the effect showed that although a traditional tests, like the analysis of variance, indicated a negative return for Thursday during the same period as the implied volatilities used, this was not supported using a GARCH model.

Performance Persistence of International Stock Funds

People saving in mutual funds often look at historical performance before they decide which funds to invest in. The implicit assumption made is that superior performance is likely to be repeated in the future. The findings presented in this study, which investigates funds sold on the Swedish market, support such an approach provided that the time horizons are limited to one year. International stock funds that have performed strongly one year are likely to outperform their peers also the following years. But if the historical and future time horizons are extended to two or three years, the positive relationship between past and future performance vanishes in most cases. Persistence tests focusing on the aggregated performance of fund companies were also carried out. These tests produced results rather similar to those on the individual fund level.

Performance of Finnish Mutual Funds: A Decomposition Approach

Mutual funds have increased in popularity among Finnish investors in recent years. In this study returns on domestic funds have been decomposed into several elements that measure different aspects of fund performance. The results indicate that fund managers in the long run tend to allocate fund capital between different stock categories in a profitable way. When it comes to the short term timing of their allocation decisions they are however unable to further improve overall performance. The evidence also suggests that managers possess the ability to pick above average performing stocks within the individual stock categories. During the investigated period most funds returned more than a broad benchmark index even after fees and indirect costs were taken into account.

Evaluating the Predictability of the Volatility Smile Using Return Distributions

In this paper, we examine the predictability of observed volatility smiles in three major European index options markets, utilising the historical return distributions of the respective underlying assets. The analysis involves an application of the Black (1976) pricing model adjusted in accordance with the Jarrow-Rudd methodology as proposed in 1982. Thereby we adjust the expected future returns for the third and fourth central moments as these represent deviations from normality in the distributions of observed returns. Thus, they are considered one possible explanation to the existence of the smile. The obtained results indicate that the inclusion of the higher moments in the pricing model to some extent reduces the volatility smile, compared with the unadjusted Black-76 model. However, as the smile is partly a function of supply, demand, and liquidity, and as such intricate to model, this modification does not appear sufficient to fully capture the characteristics of the smile.

Unrealized expectations of jumps in volatility: An explanation to the low and time-varying predictive power of implied volatility

The low predictive power of implied volatility in forecasting the subsequently realized volatility is a well-documented empirical puzzle. As suggested by e.g. Feinstein (1989), Jackwerth and Rubinstein (1996), and Bates (1997), we test whether unrealized expectations of jumps in volatility could explain this phenomenon. Our findings show that expectations of infrequently occurring jumps in volatility are indeed priced in implied volatility. This has two important consequences. First, implied volatility is actually expected to exceed realized volatility over long periods of time only to be greatly less than realized volatility during infrequently occurring periods of very high volatility. Second, the slope coefficient in the classic forecasting regression of realized volatility on implied volatility is very sensitive to the discrepancy between ex ante expected and ex post realized jump frequencies. If the in-sample frequency of positive volatility jumps is lower than ex ante assessed by the market, the classic regression test tends to reject the hypothesis of informational efficiency even if markets are informationally effective.

The Influence of World Factors on Finnish Stock Market Volatility

This paper investigates to what extent the volatility of Finnish stock portfolios is transmitted through the "world volatility". We operationalize the volatility processes of Finnish leverage, industry, and size portfolio returns by asymmetric GARCH specifications according to Glosten et al. (1993). We use daily return data for January, 2, 1987 to December 30, 1998. We find that the world shock significantly enters the domestic models, and that the impact has increased over time. This applies also for the variance ratios, and the correlations to the world. The larger the firm, the larger is the world impact. The conditional variance is higher during recessions. The asymmetry parameter is surprisingly non-significant, and the leverage hypothesis cannot be verified. The return generating process of the domestic portfolio returns does usually not include the world information set, thus indicating that the returns are generated by a segmented conditional asset pricing model.

The Pricing of American Put Options on Stock with Dividends

Pricing American put options on dividend-paying stocks has largely been ignored in the option pricing literature because the problem is mathematically complex and valuation usually resorts to computationally expensive and impractical pricing applications. This paper computed a simulation study, using two different approximation methods for the valuation of American put options on a stock with known discrete dividend payments. This to find out if there were pricing errors and to find out which could be the most usable method for practical users. The option pricing models used in the study was the dividend approximation by Blomeyer (1986) and the one by Barone-Adesi and Whaley (1988). The study showed that the approximation method by Blomeyer worked satisfactory for most situations, but some errors occur for longer times to the dividend payment, for smaller dividends and for in-the-money options. The approximation method by Barone-Adesi and Whaley worked well for in-the-money options and at-the-money options, but had serious pricing errors for out-of-the-money options. The conclusion of the study is that a combination of the both methods might be preferable to any single model.

An Empirical Investigation of Value-at-Risk in Long and Short Trading Positions

This paper uses the Value-at-Risk approach to define the risk in both long and short trading positions. The investigation is done on some major market indices(Japanese, UK, German and US). The performance of models that takes into account skewness and fat-tails are compared to symmetric models in relation to both the specific model for estimating the variance, and the distribution of the variance estimate used as input in the VaR estimation. The results indicate that more flexible models not necessarily perform better in predicting the VaR forecast; the reason for this is most probably the complexity of these models. A general result is that different methods for estimating the variance are needed for different confidence levels of the VaR, and for the different indices. Also, different models are to be used for the left respectively the right tail of the distribution.