Pelon ja toivon välissä : Pätkätyöläisen urakerronta

This study analyzes the forming of the occupational identity of the well-educated fixed-term employees. Fixed-term employment contracts amongst the well-educated labour force are exceptionally common in Finland as compared to other European countries. Two groups of modern fixed-term employees are distinguished. The first comprises well-educated women employed in the public sector whose fixed-term employment often consists of successive periods as temporary substitutes. The other group comprises well-educated, upper white-collar men aged over 40, whose fixed-term employment careers often consist of jobs of project nature or posts that are filled for a fixed period only. Method of the study For the empirical data I interviewed 35 persons (26 women and 9 men) in 33 interviews, one of which was conducted by e-mail and one was a group interview. All the interviews were electronically recorded and coded. All the interviewees have two things in common: fixed-term employment and formal high education. Thirteen (13) of them are researchers, four nurses, four midwives, four journalists, and ten project experts. I used the snowball method to get in touch the interviewees. The first interviewees were those who were recommended by the trade unions and by my personal acquaintances. These interviewees, in turn, recommended other potential interviewees. In addition, announcements on the internet pages of the trade unions were used to reach other interviewees. In analysing process I read the research material several times to find the turning points in the narrative the interviewees told. I also searched for the most meaningful stories told and the meaning the interviewees gave to these stories and to the whole narrative. In addition to that I paid attention to co-production of the narrative with the interviewees and analyzed the narrative as performance to be able to search for the preferred identities the interviewees perform. (Riesman 2001, 698-701). I do not pay much attention to the question of truth of a narrative in the sense of its correspondence with facts; rather I think a working life narrative has two tasks: On the one hand one has to tell the facts and on the other hand, he/she has to describe the meaning of these facts to herself/himself. To emphasize the double nature of the narrative about one’s working life I analyzed the empirical data both by categorizing it according to the cultural models of storytelling (heroic story, comedy, irony and tragedy) and by studying the themes most of the interviewees talked about. Ethics of the study I chose to use narrative within qualitative interviews on the grounds that in my opinion is more ethical and more empowering than the more traditional structured interview methods. During the research process I carefully followed the ethical rules of a qualitative research. The purpose of the interviews and the research was told to the interviewees by giving them a written description of the study. Oral permission to use the interview in this research was obtained from the interviewees. The names and places, which are mentioned in the study, are changed to conceal the actual identity of the interviewees. I shared the analysis with the interviewees by sending each of them the first analysis of their personal interview. This way I asked them to make sure that the identity was hidden well enough and hoped to give interviewees a chance to look at their narratives, to instigate new actions and sustain the present one (Smith 2001, 721). Also I hoped to enjoy a new possibility of joint authorship. Main results As a result of the study I introduce six models of telling a story. The four typical western cultural models that guide the telling are: heroic story, comedy, tragedy and satirical story (Hänninen 1999). In addition to these models I found two ways of telling a career filled with fixed-term employments that differ significantly from traditional career story telling. However, the story models in which the interviewees pour their experience locates the fixed term employers work career in an imagined life trajectory and reveals the meaning they give to it. I analyze the many sided heroic story that Liisa tells as an example of the strength of the fear of failing or losing the job the fixed term employee feels. By this structure it is also possible to show that success is felt to be entirely a matter of chance. Tragedy, the failure in one’s trial to get something, is a model I introduce with the help of Vilppu’s story. This narrative gets its meaning both from the sorrow of the failure in the past and the rise of something new the teller has found. Aino tells her story as a comedy. By introducing her narrative, I suggest that the purpose of the comedy, a stronger social consensus, gets deeper and darker shade by fixed-term employment: one who works as a fixed term employee has to take his/her place in his/her work community by him/herself without the support the community gives to those in permanent position. By studying the satiric model Rauno uses, I argue that using irony both turns the power structures to a carnival and builds free space to the teller of the story and to the listener. Irony also helps in building a consensus, mutual understanding, between the teller and the listener and it shows the distance the teller tells to exist between him and others. Irony, however, demands some kind of success in one’s occupational career but also at least a minor disappointment in the progress of it. Helmi tells her story merely as a detective story. By introducing Helmi’s narrative, I argue that this story model strengthens the trust in fairness of the society the teller and the listener share. The analysis also emphasizes the central position of identity work, which is caused by fixed-term employment. Most of the interviewees talked about getting along in working life. I introduced Sari’s narrative as an example of this. In both of these latter narratives one’s personal character and habits are lifted as permanent parts of the actual professional expertise, which in turn varies according to different situations. By introducing these models, I reveal that the fixed-term employees have different strategies to cope with their job situations and these strategies vary according to their personal motives and situations and the actual purpose of the interview. However, I argue that they feel the space between their hopes and fears narrow and unsecure. In the research report I also introduce pieces of the stories – themes – that the interviewees use to build these survival strategies. They use their personal curriculum vitae or portfolio, their position in work community and their work morals to build their professional identity. Professional identity is flexible and varies in time and place, but even then it offers a tool to fix one’s identity work into something. It offers a viewpoint to society and a tool to measure one’s position in surrounding social nets. As one result of the study I analyze the position the fixed-term employees share on the edge of their job communities. I summarize the hopes and fears the interviewees have concerning employers, trade unions, educational institutions and the whole society. In their opinion, the solidarity between people has been weakened by the short-sighted power of the economy. The impact the fixed-term employment has on one’s professional identity and social capital is a many-sided and versatile process. Fixed-term employment both strengthens and weakens the professional identity, social capital and the building of trust. Fixed-term employment also affects one’s day-to-day life by excluding her/him from the norm and by one’s difficulty in making long-term plans (Jokinen 2005). Regardless of the nature of the job contract, the workers themselves are experts in making the best of their sometimes less than satisfying work life and they also build their professional identity by using creatively their education, work experiences and interpersonal relations. However, a long career of short fixed-term employments may seriously change the perception of employee about his/her role. He/she may start concentrating only in coping in his/her unsatisfactory situation and leaves the active improvement of the lousy working conditions to other people. Keywords: narrative, fixed-tem employment, occupational identity, work, story model, social capital, career  

Diagnostic Tests Based on Quantile Residuals for Nonlinear Time Series Models

This thesis studies quantile residuals and uses different methodologies to develop test statistics that are applicable in evaluating linear and nonlinear time series models based on continuous distributions. Models based on mixtures of distributions are of special interest because it turns out that for those models traditional residuals, often referred to as Pearson's residuals, are not appropriate. As such models have become more and more popular in practice, especially with financial time series data there is a need for reliable diagnostic tools that can be used to evaluate them. The aim of the thesis is to show how such diagnostic tools can be obtained and used in model evaluation. The quantile residuals considered here are defined in such a way that, when the model is correctly specified and its parameters are consistently estimated, they are approximately independent with standard normal distribution. All the tests derived in the thesis are pure significance type tests and are theoretically sound in that they properly take the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation into account. -- In Chapter 2 a general framework based on the likelihood function and smooth functions of univariate quantile residuals is derived that can be used to obtain misspecification tests for various purposes. Three easy-to-use tests aimed at detecting non-normality, autocorrelation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in quantile residuals are formulated. It also turns out that these tests can be interpreted as Lagrange Multiplier or score tests so that they are asymptotically optimal against local alternatives. Chapter 3 extends the concept of quantile residuals to multivariate models. The framework of Chapter 2 is generalized and tests aimed at detecting non-normality, serial correlation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in multivariate quantile residuals are derived based on it. Score test interpretations are obtained for the serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity tests and in a rather restricted special case for the normality test. In Chapter 4 the tests are constructed using the empirical distribution function of quantile residuals. So-called Khmaladze s martingale transformation is applied in order to eliminate the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation. Various test statistics are considered so that critical bounds for histogram type plots as well as Quantile-Quantile and Probability-Probability type plots of quantile residuals are obtained. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 contain simulations and empirical examples which illustrate the finite sample size and power properties of the derived tests and also how the tests and related graphical tools based on residuals are applied in practice.

Determinants of institutional care at older ages in Finland

Väitöskirjassa selvitettiin ikäihmisten laitoshoitoon siirtymisen todennäköisyyttä ja sen taustoja kansainvälisesti ainutlaatuisen rekisteriaineiston avulla. Selvitettäviä asioita olivat eri sairauksien, sosioekonomisten tekijöiden, puolison olemassaolon ja leskeksi jäämisen yhteys laitoshoitoon siirtymiseen yli 65-vuotiailla suomalaisilla. Tutkimuksessa havaittiin, että dementia, Parkinsonin tauti, aivohalvaus, masennusoireet ja muut mielenterveysongelmat, lonkkamurtuma sekä diabetes lisäsivät ikäihmisten todennäköisyyttä siirtyä laitoshoitoon yli 50 prosentilla, kun muut sairaudet ja sosiodemografiset tekijät oli otettu huomioon. Korkeat tulot vähensivät laitoshoidon todennäköisyyttä, kun taas puutteellinen asuminen (ilman peseytymistiloja tai keskus- tai sähkölämmitystä) sekä erittäin puutteellinen asuminen (ilman lämmintä vettä, vesijohtoa, viemäriä tai vesivessaa) lisäsivät todennäkösyyttä, kun muut sosiodemografiset tekijät, sairaudet ja asuinalue oli huomioitu. Kerrostalon hissittömyys ei ollut yhteydessä laitoshoidon todennäköisyyteen. Todennäköisyys siirtyä laitoshoitoon oli jostain syystä korkeampaa niillä ikäihmisillä, jotka asuivat vuokralla ja matalampaa omakotitalossa asuvilla ja niillä, joilla oli auto. Puolison olemassaolo vähensi ja leskeksi jääminen lisäsi laitoshoidon todennäköisyyttä huomattavasti. Todennäköisyys oli erityisen suuri, yli kolminkertainen, kun puolison kuolemasta oli kulunut enintään kuukausi verrattuna niihin, joiden puoliso oli elossa. Todennäköisyys laski, kun puolison kuolemasta kului aikaa. Miesten ja naisten tulokset olivat samansuuntaisia. Korkeat tulot tai koulutus eivät suojanneet riskiltä joutua laitoshoitoon puolison kuoltua. Puolison kuolema näyttää lisäävän hoidon tarvetta, kun kotona ei ole enää puolisoa tukemassa ja huolehtimassa kodin askareista. Laitoshoidon tarve vähenee, jos ja kun lesket ajan kuluessa oppivat elämään yksin. Toisaalta tutkimustulokset saattavat viitata myös siihen, että kaikkein huonokuntoisimmat lesket, jotka eivät pärjää yksin asuessaan, siirtyvät laitoshoitoon hyvin nopeasti puolison kuoltua. Tutkimuksessa oli mukana yhteensä yli 280 000 yli 65-vuotiasta henkilöä, joiden pitkäaikaiseen laitoshoitoon siirtymistä seurattiin tammikuusta 1998 syyskuuhun 2003. Laitoshoidoksi määriteltiin terveyskeskuksissa, sairaaloissa ja vanhainkodeissa tai vastaavissa yksiköissä tapahtuva pitkäaikainen hoito, joka kesti yli 90 vuorokautta tai oli vahvistettu pitkäaikaishoidon päätöksellä. Tutkimuksessa käytetty aineisto koottiin väestörekistereistä, sosiaali- ja terveydenhuollon rekistereistä ja lääkerekistereistä.

Sulkeuman ja neuvottelun ehdoilla : asiantuntija-aseman rakentuminen työelämässä

Closure and negotiation constructing professional position in working life The aim of the thesis is to analyse how professional positions are constructed in working life. A professional position refers to a formal professional membership, but also to a position at a work site. Formal jurisdiction provides resources for supporting a position, but the relations, practices and processes at the work site strongly shape it as well. Professional membership includes two gates: obtaining a professional diploma and access to a professional post. The concept of a professional position is based on two sub-concepts: legitimation and authority. Legitimation is society-level jurisdiction over professioning. Legitimation can be claimed in legislation, in the public space and the media, and at the work site. Authority requires constructing professional work territories and practicing authority in work-related decision making processes. The thesis is based on five articles which deal with the following topics: gendered professional careers; organising professional work; the impact of the social and cultural backgrounds when striving for professional positions; and models of research work. The articles represent two types of sociological research: the structural approach with quantitative methodology and the approach of micro-social analysis with qualitative methodology. The first approach was suitable for analyzing professional career formation and its social and ethnic conditions. The second approach has been applied in the articles dealing with the organization of professional work and models of research work. I have combined and analysed the results of these studies under the theoretical frame of the professional position in working life. Legislation is the most powerful form of legitimation. Professional membership is strongly regulated in disciplines where a degree requirement is defined by law. In addition, closures related to social conditions still affect professional positions, but their character is loose and changing. The closures related to social conditions are based on many mutually overlapping principles: social, cultural and ethnic backgrounds and gender. Despite the closures, professional experts have to negotiate their positions, particularly when the situation in the work sites and society changes. Professional authority is reinforced at the organizational level by legislation; when the institutional status of a public sector professional organization is defined by law, it reinforces the professional position of the employees. In the business line of new media, the employees need to negotiate with the management, other professional groups and clients when striving for reinforce their professional position.

Studies on Binary Time Series Models with Applications to Empirical Macroeconomics and Finance

This thesis studies binary time series models and their applications in empirical macroeconomics and finance. In addition to previously suggested models, new dynamic extensions are proposed to the static probit model commonly used in the previous literature. In particular, we are interested in probit models with an autoregressive model structure. In Chapter 2, the main objective is to compare the predictive performance of the static and dynamic probit models in forecasting the U.S. and German business cycle recession periods. Financial variables, such as interest rates and stock market returns, are used as predictive variables. The empirical results suggest that the recession periods are predictable and dynamic probit models, especially models with the autoregressive structure, outperform the static model. Chapter 3 proposes a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for the usefulness of the autoregressive structure of the probit model. The finite sample properties of the LM test are considered with simulation experiments. Results indicate that the two alternative LM test statistics have reasonable size and power in large samples. In small samples, a parametric bootstrap method is suggested to obtain approximately correct size. In Chapter 4, the predictive power of dynamic probit models in predicting the direction of stock market returns are examined. The novel idea is to use recession forecast (see Chapter 2) as a predictor of the stock return sign. The evidence suggests that the signs of the U.S. excess stock returns over the risk-free return are predictable both in and out of sample. The new "error correction" probit model yields the best forecasts and it also outperforms other predictive models, such as ARMAX models, in terms of statistical and economic goodness-of-fit measures. Chapter 5 generalizes the analysis of univariate models considered in Chapters 2 4 to the case of a bivariate model. A new bivariate autoregressive probit model is applied to predict the current state of the U.S. business cycle and growth rate cycle periods. Evidence of predictability of both cycle indicators is obtained and the bivariate model is found to outperform the univariate models in terms of predictive power.

Search for Higgs bosons predicted in two-Higgs-doublet models via decays to tau lepton pairs in 1.96 TeV proton-antiproton collisions

We present the results of a search for Higgs bosons predicted in two-Higgs-doublet models, in the case where the Higgs bosons decay to tau lepton pairs, using 1.8 inverse fb of integrated luminosity of proton-antiproton collisions recorded by the CDF II experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron. Studying the observed mass distribution in events where one or both tau leptons decay leptonically, no evidence for a Higgs boson signal is observed. The result is used to infer exclusion limits in the two-dimensional parameter space of tan beta versus m(A).

Search for Higgs bosons predicted in two-Higgs-doublet models via decays to tau lepton pairs in 1.96 TeV proton-antiproton collisions

We present the results of a search for Higgs bosons predicted in two-Higgs-doublet models, in the case where the Higgs bosons decay to tau lepton pairs, using 1.8 inverse fb of integrated luminosity of proton-antiproton collisions recorded by the CDF II experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron. Studying the observed mass distribution in events where one or both tau leptons decay leptonically, no evidence for a Higgs boson signal is observed. The result is used to infer exclusion limits in the two-dimensional parameter space of tan beta versus m(A).

Combined Tevatron upper limit on gg->H->W+W- and constraints on the Higgs boson mass in fourth-generation fermion models

We combine results from searches by the CDF and D0 collaborations for a standard model Higgs boson (H) in the process gg->H->W+W- in p=pbar collisions at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV. With 4.8 fb-1 of integrated luminosity analyzed at CDF and 5.4 fb-1 at D0, the 95% Confidence Level upper limit on \sigma(gg->H) x B(H->W+W-) is 1.75 pb at m_H=120 GeV, 0.38 pb at m_H=165 GeV, and 0.83 pb at m_H=200 GeV. Assuming the presence of a fourth sequential generation of fermions with large masses, we exclude at the 95% Confidence Level a standard-model-like Higgs boson with a mass between 131 and 204 GeV.

Enhancing Physics Education in the National Defence University : A design based research approach in the production of learning material

This research is connected with an education development project for the four-year-long officer education program at the National Defence University. In this curriculum physics was studied in two alternative course plans namely scientific and general. Observations connected to the later one e.g. student feedback and learning outcome gave indications that action was needed to support the course. The reform work was focused on the production of aligned course related instructional material. The learning material project produced a customized textbook set for the students of the general basic physics course. The research adapts phases that are typical in Design Based Research (DBR). The research analyses the feature requirements for physics textbook aimed at a specific sector and frames supporting instructional material development, and summarizes the experiences gained in the learning material project when the selected frames have been applied. The quality of instructional material is an essential part of qualified teaching. The goal of instructional material customization is to increase the product's customer centric nature and to enhance its function as a support media for the learning process. Textbooks are still one of the core elements in physics teaching. The idea of a textbook will remain but the form and appearance may change according to the prevailing technology. The work deals with substance connected frames (demands of a physics textbook according to the PER-viewpoint, quality thinking in educational material development), frames of university pedagogy and instructional material production processes. A wide knowledge and understanding of different frames are useful in development work, if they are to be utilized to aid inspiration without limiting new reasoning and new kinds of models. Applying customization even in the frame utilization supports creative and situation aware design and diminishes the gap between theory and practice. Generally, physics teachers produce their own supplementary instructional material. Even though customization thinking is not unknown the threshold to produce an entire textbook might be high. Even though the observations here are from the general physics course at the NDU, the research gives tools also for development in other discipline related educational contexts. This research is an example of an instructional material development work together the questions it uncovers, and presents thoughts when textbook customization is rewarding. At the same time, the research aims to further creative customization thinking in instruction and development. Key words: Physics textbook, PER (Physics Education Research), Instructional quality, Customization, Creativity

Effective models of two-flavor QCD: finite $\mu$ and $m_q$-dependence

We study effective models of chiral fields and Polyakov loop expected to describe the dynamics responsible for the phase structure of two-flavor QCD at finite temperature and density. We consider chiral sector described either using linear sigma model or Nambu-Jona-Lasinio model and study the phase diagram and determine the location of the critical point as a function of the explicit chiral symmetry breaking (i.e. the bare quark mass $m_q$). We also discuss the possible emergence of the quarkyonic phase in this model.

Generalizations and Models in Ecology : Lawlikeness, Invariance, Stability, and Robustness

The question at issue in this dissertation is the epistemic role played by ecological generalizations and models. I investigate and analyze such properties of generalizations as lawlikeness, invariance, and stability, and I ask which of these properties are relevant in the context of scientific explanations. I will claim that there are generalizable and reliable causal explanations in ecology by generalizations, which are invariant and stable. An invariant generalization continues to hold or be valid under a special change called an intervention that changes the value of its variables. Whether a generalization remains invariant during its interventions is the criterion that determines whether it is explanatory. A generalization can be invariant and explanatory regardless of its lawlike status. Stability deals with a generality that has to do with holding of a generalization in possible background conditions. The more stable a generalization, the less dependent it is on background conditions to remain true. Although it is invariance rather than stability of generalizations that furnishes us with explanatory generalizations, there is an important function that stability has in this context of explanations, namely, stability furnishes us with extrapolability and reliability of scientific explanations. I also discuss non-empirical investigations of models that I call robustness and sensitivity analyses. I call sensitivity analyses investigations in which one model is studied with regard to its stability conditions by making changes and variations to the values of the model s parameters. As a general definition of robustness analyses I propose investigations of variations in modeling assumptions of different models of the same phenomenon in which the focus is on whether they produce similar or convergent results or not. Robustness and sensitivity analyses are powerful tools for studying the conditions and assumptions where models break down and they are especially powerful in pointing out reasons as to why they do this. They show which conditions or assumptions the results of models depend on. Key words: ecology, generalizations, invariance, lawlikeness, philosophy of science, robustness, explanation, models, stability

Ice reduction of winter discharge by watershed models

Yhteenveto: Talvivirtaamien redukointi vesistömallien avulla

Open Access to the Scientific Journal Literature: Situation 2009

Background: The Internet has recently made possible the free global availability of scientific journal articles. Open Access (OA) can occur either via OA scientific journals, or via authors posting manuscripts of articles published in subscription journals in open web repositories. So far there have been few systematic studies showing how big the extent of OA is, in particular studies covering all fields of science. Methodology/Principal Findings: The proportion of peer reviewed scholarly journal articles, which are available openly in full text on the web, was studied using a random sample of 1837 titles and a web search engine. Of articles published in 2008, 8,5% were freely available at the publishers’ sites. For an additional 11,9% free manuscript versions could be found using search engines, making the overall OA percentage 20,4%. Chemistry (13%) had the lowest overall share of OA, Earth Sciences (33%) the highest. In medicine, biochemistry and chemistry publishing in OA journals was more common. In all other fields author-posted manuscript copies dominated the picture. Conclusions/Significance: The results show that OA already has a significant positive impact on the availability of the scientific journal literature and that there are big differences between scientific disciplines in the uptake. Due to the lack of awareness of OA-publishing among scientists in most fields outside physics, the results should be of general interest to all scholars. The results should also interest academic publishers, who need to take into account OA in their business strategies and copyright policies, as well as research funders, who like the NIH are starting to require OA availability of results from research projects they fund. The method and search tools developed also offer a good basis for more in-depth studies as well as longitudinal studies.

Inference on Cointegration in Vector Autoregressive Models (summary section only)

In the thesis we consider inference for cointegration in vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The thesis consists of an introduction and four papers. The first paper proposes a new test for cointegration in VAR models that is directly based on the eigenvalues of the least squares (LS) estimate of the autoregressive matrix. In the second paper we compare a small sample correction for the likelihood ratio (LR) test of cointegrating rank and the bootstrap. The simulation experiments show that the bootstrap works very well in practice and dominates the correction factor. The tests are applied to international stock prices data, and the .nite sample performance of the tests are investigated by simulating the data. The third paper studies the demand for money in Sweden 1970—2000 using the I(2) model. In the fourth paper we re-examine the evidence of cointegration between international stock prices. The paper shows that some of the previous empirical results can be explained by the small-sample bias and size distortion of Johansen’s LR tests for cointegration. In all papers we work with two data sets. The first data set is a Swedish money demand data set with observations on the money stock, the consumer price index, gross domestic product (GDP), the short-term interest rate and the long-term interest rate. The data are quarterly and the sample period is 1970(1)—2000(1). The second data set consists of month-end stock market index observations for Finland, France, Germany, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States from 1980(1) to 1997(2). Both data sets are typical of the sample sizes encountered in economic data, and the applications illustrate the usefulness of the models and tests discussed in the thesis.