80 resultados para Low Volatility Options


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The project consisted of two long-term follow-up studies of preterm children addressing the question whether intrauterine growth restriction affects the outcome. Assessment at 5 years of age of 203 children with a birth weight less than 1000 g born in Finland in 1996-1997 showed that 9% of the children had cognitive impairment, 14% cerebral palsy, and 4% needed a hearing aid. The intelligence quotient was lower (p<0.05) than the reference value. Thus, 20% exhibited major, 19% minor disabilities, and 61% had no functional abnormalities. Being small for gestational age (SGA) was associated with sub-optimal growth later. In children born before 27 gestational weeks, the SGA had more neuropsychological disabilities than those appropriate for gestational age (AGA). In another cohort with birth weight less than 1500 g assessed at 5 years of age, echocardiography showed a thickened interventricular septum and a decreased left ventricular end-diastolic diameter in both SGA and AGA born children. They also had a higher systolic blood pressure than the reference. Laser-Doppler flowmetry showed different endothelium-dependent and -independent vasodilation responses in the AGA children compared to those of the controls. SGA was not associated with cardio-vascular abnormalities. Auditory event-related potentials (AERPs) were recorded using an oddball paradigm with frequency deviants (standard tone 500 Hz and deviant 750-Hz with 10% probability). At term, the P350 was smaller in SGA and AGA infants than in controls. At 12 months, the automatic change detection peak (mismatch negativity, MMN) was observed in the controls. However, the pre-term infants had a difference positivity that correlated with their neurodevelopment scores. At 5 years of age, the P1-deflection, which reflects primary auditory processing, was smaller, and the MMN larger in the preterm than in the control children. Even with a challenging paradigm or a distraction paradigm, P1 was smaller in the preterm than in the control children. The SGA and AGA children showed similar AERP responses. Prematurity is a major risk factor for abnormal brain development. Preterm children showed signs of cardiovascular abnormality suggesting that prematurity per se may carry a risk for later morbidity. The small positive amplitudes in AERPs suggest persisting altered auditory processing in the preterm in-fants.

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Cancer is a devastating disease with poor prognosis and no curative treatment, when widely metastatic. Conventional therapies, such as chemotherapy and radiotherapy, have efficacy but are not curative and systemic toxicity can be considerable. Almost all cancers are caused due to changes in the genetic material of the transformed cells. Cancer gene therapy has emerged as a new treatment option, and past decades brought new insights in developing new therapeutic drugs for curing cancer. Oncolytic viruses constitute a novel therapeutic approach given their capacity to replicate in and kill specifically tumor cells as well as reaching tumor distant metastasis. Adenoviral gene therapy has been suggested to cause liver toxicity. This study shows that new developed adenoviruses, in particular Ad5/19p-HIT, can be redirected towards kidney while adenovirus uptake by liver is minimal. Moreover, low liver transduction resulted in a favorable tumor to liver ratio of virus load. Further, we established a new immunocompetent animal model Syrian hamsters. Wild type adenovirus 5 was found to replicate in Hap-T1 hamster tumors and normal tissues. There are no antiviral drugs available to inhibit adenovirus replication. In our study, chlorpromazine and cidofovir efficiently abrogated virus replication in vitro and showed significant reduction in vivo in tumors and liver. Once safety concerns were addressed together with the new given antiviral treatment options, we further improved oncolytic adenoviruses for better tumor penetration, local amplification and host system modulation. Further, we created Ad5/3-9HIF-Δ24-VEGFR-1-Ig, oncolytic adenovirus for improved infectivity and antiangiogenic effect for treatment of renal cancer. This virus exhibited increased anti-tumor effect and specific replication in kidney cancer cells. The key player for good efficacy of oncolytic virotherapy is the host immune response. Thus, we engineered a triple targeted adenovirus Ad5/3-hTERT-E1A-hCD40L, which would lead to tumor elimination due to tumor-specific oncolysis and apoptosis together with an anti-tumor immune response prompted by the immunomodulatory molecule. In conclusion, the results presented in this thesis constitute advances in our understanding of oncolytic virotherapy by successful tumor targeting, antiviral treatment options as a safety switch in case of replication associated side-effects, and modulation of the host immune system towards tumor elimination.  

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It is widely accepted that the global climate is heating up due to human activities, such as burning of fossil fuels. Therefore we find ourselves forced to make decisions on what measures, if any, need to be taken to decrease our warming effect on the planet before any irrevocable damage occurs. Research is being conducted in a variety of fields to better understand all relevant processes governing Earth s climate, and to assess the relative roles of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions into the atmosphere. One of the least well quantified problems is the impact of small aerosol particles (both of anthropogenic and biogenic origin) on climate, through reflecting solar radiation and their ability to act as condensation nuclei for cloud droplets. In this thesis, the compounds driving the biogenic formation of new particles in the atmosphere have been examined through detailed measurements. As directly measuring the composition of these newly formed particles is extremely difficult, the approach was to indirectly study their different characteristics by measuring the hygroscopicity (water uptake) and volatility (evaporation) of particles between 10 and 50 nm. To study the first steps of the formation process in the sub-3 nm range, the nucleation of gaseous precursors to small clusters, the chemical composition of ambient naturally charged ions were measured. The ion measurements were performed with a newly developed mass spectrometer, which was first characterized in the laboratory before being deployed at a boreal forest measurement site. It was also successfully compared to similar, low-resolution instruments. The ambient measurements showed that sulfuric acid clusters dominate the negative ion spectrum during new particle formation events. Sulfuric acid/ammonia clusters were detected in ambient air for the first time in this work. Even though sulfuric acid is believed to be the most important gas phase precursor driving the initial cluster formation, measurements of the hygroscopicity and volatility of growing 10-50 nm particles in Hyytiälä showed an increasing role of organic vapors of a variety of oxidation levels. This work has provided additional insights into the compounds participating both in the initial formation and subsequent growth of atmospheric new aerosol particles. It will hopefully prove an important step in understanding atmospheric gas-to-particle conversion, which, by influencing cloud properties, can have important climate impacts. All available knowledge needs to be constantly updated, summarized, and brought to the attention of our decision-makers. Only by increasing our understanding of all the relevant processes can we build reliable models to predict the long-term effects of decisions made today.

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Atmospheric aerosol particles affect the global climate as well as human health. In this thesis, formation of nanometer sized atmospheric aerosol particles and their subsequent growth was observed to occur all around the world. Typical formation rate of 3 nm particles at varied from 0.01 to 10 cm-3s-1. One order of magnitude higher formation rates were detected in urban environment. Highest formation rates up to 105 cm-3s-1 were detected in coastal areas and in industrial pollution plumes. Subsequent growth rates varied from 0.01 to 20 nm h-1. Smallest growth rates were observed in polar areas and the largest in the polluted urban environment. This was probably due to competition between growth by condensation and loss by coagulation. Observed growth rates were used in the calculation of a proxy condensable vapour concentration and its source rate in vastly different environments from pristine Antarctica to polluted India. Estimated concentrations varied only 2 orders of magnitude, but the source rates for the vapours varied up to 4 orders of magnitude. Highest source rates were in New Delhi and lowest were in the Antarctica. Indirect methods were applied to study the growth of freshly formed particles in the atmosphere. Also a newly developed Water Condensation Particle Counter, TSI 3785, was found to be a potential candidate to detect water solubility and thus indirectly composition of atmospheric ultra-fine particles. Based on indirect methods, the relative roles of sulphuric acid, non-volatile material and coagulation were investigated in rural Melpitz, Germany. Condensation of non-volatile material explained 20-40% and sulphuric acid the most of the remaining growth up to a point, when nucleation mode reached 10 to 20 nm in diameter. Coagulation contributed typically less than 5%. Furthermore, hygroscopicity measurements were applied to detect the contribution of water soluble and insoluble components in Athens. During more polluted days, the water soluble components contributed more to the growth. During less anthropogenic influence, non-soluble compounds explained a larger fraction of the growth. In addition, long range transport to a measurement station in Finland in a relatively polluted air mass was found to affect the hygroscopicity of the particles. This aging could have implications to cloud formation far away from the pollution sources.

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Cosmological inflation is the dominant paradigm in explaining the origin of structure in the universe. According to the inflationary scenario, there has been a period of nearly exponential expansion in the very early universe, long before the nucleosynthesis. Inflation is commonly considered as a consequence of some scalar field or fields whose energy density starts to dominate the universe. The inflationary expansion converts the quantum fluctuations of the fields into classical perturbations on superhorizon scales and these primordial perturbations are the seeds of the structure in the universe. Moreover, inflation also naturally explains the high degree of homogeneity and spatial flatness of the early universe. The real challenge of the inflationary cosmology lies in trying to establish a connection between the fields driving inflation and theories of particle physics. In this thesis we concentrate on inflationary models at scales well below the Planck scale. The low scale allows us to seek for candidates for the inflationary matter within extensions of the Standard Model but typically also implies fine-tuning problems. We discuss a low scale model where inflation is driven by a flat direction of the Minimally Supersymmetric Standard Model. The relation between the potential along the flat direction and the underlying supergravity model is studied. The low inflationary scale requires an extremely flat potential but we find that in this particular model the associated fine-tuning problems can be solved in a rather natural fashion in a class of supergravity models. For this class of models, the flatness is a consequence of the structure of the supergravity model and is insensitive to the vacuum expectation values of the fields that break supersymmetry. Another low scale model considered in the thesis is the curvaton scenario where the primordial perturbations originate from quantum fluctuations of a curvaton field, which is different from the fields driving inflation. The curvaton gives a negligible contribution to the total energy density during inflation but its perturbations become significant in the post-inflationary epoch. The separation between the fields driving inflation and the fields giving rise to primordial perturbations opens up new possibilities to lower the inflationary scale without introducing fine-tuning problems. The curvaton model typically gives rise to relatively large level of non-gaussian features in the statistics of primordial perturbations. We find that the level of non-gaussian effects is heavily dependent on the form of the curvaton potential. Future observations that provide more accurate information of the non-gaussian statistics can therefore place constraining bounds on the curvaton interactions.

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A search for new physics using three-lepton (trilepton) data collected with the CDF II detector and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 976 pb-1 is presented. The standard model predicts a low rate of trilepton events, which makes some supersymmetric processes, such as chargino-neutralino production, measurable in this channel. The mu+mu+l signature is investigated, where l is an electron or a muon, with the additional requirement of large missing transverse energy. In this analysis, the lepton transverse momenta with respect to the beam direction (pT) are as low as 5 GeV/c, a selection that improves the sensitivity to particles which are light as well as to ones which result in leptonically decaying tau leptons. At the same time, this low-p_T selection presents additional challenges due to the non-negligible heavy-quark background at low lepton momenta. This background is measured with an innovative technique using experimental data. Several dimuon and trilepton control regions are investigated, and good agreement between experimental results and standard-model predictions is observed. In the signal region, we observe one three-muon event and expect 0.4+/-0.1 mu+mu+l events

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Aims: Develop and validate tools to estimate residual noise covariance in Planck frequency maps. Quantify signal error effects and compare different techniques to produce low-resolution maps. Methods: We derive analytical estimates of covariance of the residual noise contained in low-resolution maps produced using a number of map-making approaches. We test these analytical predictions using Monte Carlo simulations and their impact on angular power spectrum estimation. We use simulations to quantify the level of signal errors incurred in different resolution downgrading schemes considered in this work. Results: We find an excellent agreement between the optimal residual noise covariance matrices and Monte Carlo noise maps. For destriping map-makers, the extent of agreement is dictated by the knee frequency of the correlated noise component and the chosen baseline offset length. The significance of signal striping is shown to be insignificant when properly dealt with. In map resolution downgrading, we find that a carefully selected window function is required to reduce aliasing to the sub-percent level at multipoles, ell > 2Nside, where Nside is the HEALPix resolution parameter. We show that sufficient characterization of the residual noise is unavoidable if one is to draw reliable contraints on large scale anisotropy. Conclusions: We have described how to compute the low-resolution maps, with a controlled sky signal level, and a reliable estimate of covariance of the residual noise. We have also presented a method to smooth the residual noise covariance matrices to describe the noise correlations in smoothed, bandwidth limited maps.

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Major advances in the treatment of preterm infants have occurred during the last three decades. Survival rates have increased, and the first generations of preterm infants born at very low birth weight (VLBW; less than 1500 g) who profited from modern neonatal intensive care are now in young adulthood. The literature shows that VLBW children achieve on average lower scores on cognitive tests, even after exclusion of individuals with obvious neurosensory deficits. Evidence also exists for an increased risk in VLBW children for various neuropsychiatric disorders such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and related behavioral symptoms. Up till now, studies extending into adulthood are sparse, and it remains to be seen whether these problems persist into adulthood. The aim of this thesis was to study ADHD-related symptoms and cognitive and executive functioning in young adults born at VLBW. In addition, we aimed to study sleep disturbances, known to adversely affect both cognition and attention. We hypothesized that preterm birth at VLBW interferes with early brain development in a way that alters the neuropsychological phenotype; this may manifest itself as ADHD symptoms and impaired cognitive abilities in young adulthood. In this cohort study from a geographically defined region, we studied 166 VLBW adults and 172 term-born controls born from 1978 through 1985. At ages 18 to 27 years, the study participants took part in a clinic study during which their physical and psychological health was assessed in detail. Three years later, 213 of these individuals participated in a follow-up. The current study is part of a larger research project (The Helsinki Study of Very Low Birth Weight Adults), and the measurements of interest for this particular study include the following: 1) The Adult Problem Questionnaire (APQ), a self-rating scale of ADHD-related symptoms in adults; 2) A computerized cognitive test battery designed for population studies (CogState®) which measures core cognitive abilities such as reaction time, working memory, and visual learning; 3) Sleep assessment by actigraphy, the Basic Nordic Sleep Questionnaire, and the Morningness-Eveningness Questionnaire. Actigraphs are wrist-worn accelerometers that separate sleep from wakefulness by registering body movements. Contrary to expectations, VLBW adults as a group reported no more ADHD-related behavioral symptoms than did controls. Further subdivision of the VLBW group into SGA (small for gestational age) and AGA (appropriate for gestational age) subgroups, however, revealed more symptoms on ADHD subscales pertaining to executive dysfunction and emotional instability among those born SGA. Thus, it seems that intrauterine growth retardation (for which SGA served as a proxy) is a more essential predictor for self-perceived ADHD symptoms in adulthood than is VLBW birth as such. In line with observations from other cohorts, the VLBW adults reported less risk-taking behavior in terms of substance use (alcohol, smoking, and recreational drugs), a finding reassuring for the VLBW individuals and their families. On the cognitive test, VLBW adults free from neurosensory deficits had longer reaction times than did term-born peers on all tasks included in the test battery, and lower accuracy on the learning task, with no discernible effect of SGA status over and above the effect of VLBW. Altogether, on a group level, even high-functioning VLBW adults show subtle deficits in psychomotor processing speed, visual working memory, and learning abilities. The sleep studies provided no evidence for differences in sleep quality or duration between the two groups. The VLBW adults were, however, at more than two-fold higher risk for sleep-disordered breathing (in terms of chronic snoring). Given the link between sleep-disordered breathing and health sequelae, these results suggest that VLBW individuals may benefit from an increased awareness among clinicians of this potential problem area. An unexpected finding from the sleep studies was the suggestion of an advanced sleep phase: The VLBW adults went to bed earlier according to the actigraphy registrations and also reported earlier wake-up times on the questionnaire. In further study of this issue in conjunction with the follow-up three years later, the VLBW group reported higher levels of morningness propensity, further corroborating the preliminary findings of an advanced sleep phase. Although the clinical implications are not entirely clear, the issue may be worth further study, since circadian rhythms are closely related to health and well-being. In sum, we believe that increased understanding of long-term outcomes after VLBW, and identification of areas and subgroups that are particularly vulnerable, will allow earlier recognition of potential problems and ultimately lead to improved prevention strategies.

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We have presented an overview of the FSIG approach and related FSIG gram- mars to issues of very low complexity and parsing strategy. We ended up with serious optimism according to which most FSIG grammars could be decom- posed in a reasonable way and then processed efficiently.

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One of the most fundamental and widely accepted ideas in finance is that investors are compensated through higher returns for taking on non-diversifiable risk. Hence the quantification, modeling and prediction of risk have been, and still are one of the most prolific research areas in financial economics. It was recognized early on that there are predictable patterns in the variance of speculative prices. Later research has shown that there may also be systematic variation in the skewness and kurtosis of financial returns. Lacking in the literature so far, is an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the potential benefits of these new more complicated models with time-varying higher moments. Such an evaluation is the topic of this dissertation. Essay 1 investigates the forecast performance of the GARCH (1,1) model when estimated with 9 different error distributions on Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Future returns. By utilizing the theory of realized variance to construct an appropriate ex post measure of variance from intra-day data it is shown that allowing for a leptokurtic error distribution leads to significant improvements in variance forecasts compared to using the normal distribution. This result holds for daily, weekly as well as monthly forecast horizons. It is also found that allowing for skewness and time variation in the higher moments of the distribution does not further improve forecasts. In Essay 2, by using 20 years of daily Standard and Poor 500 index returns, it is found that density forecasts are much improved by allowing for constant excess kurtosis but not improved by allowing for skewness. By allowing the kurtosis and skewness to be time varying the density forecasts are not further improved but on the contrary made slightly worse. In Essay 3 a new model incorporating conditional variance, skewness and kurtosis based on the Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution is proposed. The new model and two previously used NIG models are evaluated by their Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts on a long series of daily Standard and Poor’s 500 returns. The results show that only the new model produces satisfactory VaR forecasts for both 1% and 5% VaR Taken together the results of the thesis show that kurtosis appears not to exhibit predictable time variation, whereas there is found some predictability in the skewness. However, the dynamic properties of the skewness are not completely captured by any of the models.

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Functioning capital markets are a crucial part of a competitive economy since they provide the mechanisms to allocate resources. In order to be well functioning a capital market has to be efficient. Market efficiency is defined as a market where prices at any time fully reflect all available information. Basically, this means that abnormal returns cannot be predicted since they are dependent on future, presently unknown, information. The debate of market efficiency has been going on for several decades. Most academics today would probably agree that financial markets are reasonably efficient since virtually nobody has been able to achieve continuous abnormal positive returns. However, it is clear that a set of return anomalies exists, although they are apparently to small to enable substantial economic profit. Moreover, these anomalies can often be attributed to market design. The motivation for this work is to expand the knowledge of short-term trading patterns and to offer some explanations for these patterns. In the first essay the return pattern during the day is examined. On average stock prices move during two time periods of the day, namely, immediately after the opening and around the formal close of the market. Since stock prices, on average, move upwards these abnormal returns are generally positive and cause the distinct U-shape of intraday returns. In the second essay the results in the first essay are examined further. The return pattern around the former close is shown to partly be the result of manipulative action by market participants. In the third essay the focus is shifted towards trading patterns of the underlying stocks on days when index options and index futures on the stocks expire. Generally no expiration day effect was found. However, some indication of an expiration day effect was found when a large amount of open in- or at-the-money contracts existed. Also, the effects were likelier to be found for shares with high index-weight but fairly low trading volume. Last, in the forth essay the attention is turned to the behaviour of different tax clienteles around the dividend ex-day. Two groups of investors showed abnormal trading behaviour. Domestic non-financial investors, especially domestic companies, showed a dividend capturing behaviour, i.e. buying cum-dividend and selling ex-dividend shares. The opposite behaviour was found for foreign investors and domestic financial institutions. The effect was more notable for high yield, high volume stocks.