Measurement of the Top-Quark Mass with Dilepton Events Selected Using Neuroevolution at CDF

We report a measurement of the top quark mass $M_t$ in the dilepton decay channel $t\bar{t}\to b\ell'^{+}\nu'_\ell\bar{b}\ell^{-}\bar{\nu}_{\ell}$. Events are selected with a neural network which has been directly optimized for statistical precision in top quark mass using neuroevolution, a technique modeled on biological evolution. The top quark mass is extracted from per-event probability densities that are formed by the convolution of leading order matrix elements and detector resolution functions. The joint probability is the product of the probability densities from 344 candidate events in 2.0 fb$^{-1}$ of $p\bar{p}$ collisions collected with the CDF II detector, yielding a measurement of $M_t= 171.2\pm 2.7(\textrm{stat.})\pm 2.9(\textrm{syst.})\mathrm{GeV}/c^2$.

Maximum Loss Calculation using Scenario Analysis, Heavy Tails and Implied Volatility Patterns

The objective of this paper is to improve option risk monitoring by examining the information content of implied volatility and by introducing the calculation of a single-sum expected risk exposure similar to the Value-at-Risk. The figure is calculated in two steps. First, there is a need to estimate the value of a portfolio of options for a number of different market scenarios, while the second step is to summarize the information content of the estimated scenarios into a single-sum risk measure. This involves the use of probability theory and return distributions, which confronts the user with the problems of non-normality in the return distribution of the underlying asset. Here the hyperbolic distribution is used to describe one alternative for dealing with heavy tails. Results indicate that the information content of implied volatility is useful when predicting future large returns in the underlying asset. Further, the hyperbolic distribution provides a good fit to historical returns enabling a more accurate definition of statistical intervals and extreme events.

Elliptic flow of thermal photons in heavy-ion collisions at Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider and Large Hadron Collider

We calculate the thermal photon transverse momentum spectra and elliptic flow in $\sqrt{s_{NN}} = 200$ GeV Au+Au collisions at RHIC and in $\sqrt{s_{NN}} = 2.76$ TeV Pb+Pb collisions at the LHC, using an ideal-hydrodynamical framework which is constrained by the measured hadron spectra at RHIC and LHC. The sensitivity of the results to the QCD-matter equation of state and to the photon emission rates is studied, and the photon $v_2$ is discussed in the light of the photonic $p_T$ spectrum measured by the PHENIX Collaboration. In particular, we make a prediction for the thermal photon $p_T$ spectra and elliptic flow for the current LHC Pb+Pb collisions.