A Possible and Necessary Consistency Proof

After Gödel's incompleteness theorems and the collapse of Hilbert's programme Gerhard Gentzen continued the quest for consistency proofs of Peano arithmetic. He considered a finitistic or constructive proof still possible and necessary for the foundations of mathematics. For a proof to be meaningful, the principles relied on should be considered more reliable than the doubtful elements of the theory concerned. He worked out a total of four proofs between 1934 and 1939. This thesis examines the consistency proofs for arithmetic by Gentzen from different angles. The consistency of Heyting arithmetic is shown both in a sequent calculus notation and in natural deduction. The former proof includes a cut elimination theorem for the calculus and a syntactical study of the purely arithmetical part of the system. The latter consistency proof in standard natural deduction has been an open problem since the publication of Gentzen's proofs. The solution to this problem for an intuitionistic calculus is based on a normalization proof by Howard. The proof is performed in the manner of Gentzen, by giving a reduction procedure for derivations of falsity. In contrast to Gentzen's proof, the procedure contains a vector assignment. The reduction reduces the first component of the vector and this component can be interpreted as an ordinal less than epsilon_0, thus ordering the derivations by complexity and proving termination of the process.

Stand growth and management scenarios for Paraserianthes falcataria smallholder plantations in Indonesia

Paraserianthes falcataria is a very fast growing, light wood tree species, that has recently gained wide interest in Indonesia for industrial wood processing. At the moment the P. falcataria plantations managed by smallholders are lacking predefined management programmes for commercial wood production. The general objective of this study was to model the growth and yield of Paraserianthes falcataria stands managed by smallholders in Ciamis, West Java, Indonesia and to develop management scenarios for different production objectives. In total 106 circular sample plots with over 2300 P. falcataria trees were assessed on smallholder plantation inventory. In addition, information on market prices of P. falcataria wood was collected through rapid appraisals among industries. A tree growth model based on Chapman-Richards function was developed on three different site qualities and the stand management scenarios were developed under three management objectives: (1) low initial stand density with low intensity stand management, (2) high initial stand density with medium intensity of intervention, (3) high initial stand density and strong intensity of silvicultural interventions, repeated more than once. In general, the 9 recommended scenarios have rotation ages varying from 4 to 12 years, planting densities from 4x4 meters (625 trees ha-1) to 3x2 meters (1666 trees ha-1) and thinnings at intensities of removing 30 to 60 % of the standing trees. The highest annual income would be generated on high-quality with a scenario with initial planting density 3x2 m (1666 trees ha-1) one thinning at intensity of removing 55 % of the standing trees at the age of 2 years and clear cut at the age of 4 years.

Effect of soil preparation of boreal spruce forest on air and soil temperature conditions in forest regeneration areas.

The effect of scarification, ploughing and cross-directional plouhing on temperature conditions in the soil and adjacent air layer have been studied during 11 consecutive growth periods by using an unprepared clear-cut area as a control site. The maximum and minimum temperatures were measured daily in the summer months, and other temperature observations were made at four-hour intervals by means of a Grant measuring instrument. The development of the seedling stand was also followed in order to determine its shading effect on the soil surface. Soil preparation decreased the daily temperature amplitude of the air at the height of 10 cm. The maximum temperatures on sunny days were lower in the tilts of the ploughed and in the humps of the cross-directional ploughed sites compared with the unprepared area. Correspondingly, the night temperatures were higher and so the soil preparation considerably reduced the risk of night frost. In the soil at the depth of 5 cm, soil preparation increased daytime temperatures and reduced night temperatures compared with unprepared area. The maximum increase in monthly mean temperatures was almost 5 °C, and the daily variation in the surface parts of the tilts and humps increased so that excessively high temperatures for the optimal growth of the root system were measured from time to time. The temperature also rose at the depths of 50 and 100 cm. Soil preparation also increased the cumulative temperature sum. The highest sums accumulated during the summer months were recorded at the depth of 5 cm in the humps of cross-directional ploughed area (1127 dd.) and in the tilts of the ploughed area (1106 dd.), while the corresponding figure in the unprepared soil was 718 dd. At the height of 10 cm the highest temperature sum was 1020 dd. in the hump, the corresponding figure in the unprepared area being 925 dd. The incidence of high temperature amplitudes and percentage of high temperatures at the depth of 5 cm decreased most rapidly in the humps of cross-directional ploughed area and in the ploughing tilts towards the end of the measurement period. The decrease was attributed principally to the compressing of tilts, the ground vegetation succession and the growth of seedlings. The mean summer temperature in the unprepared area was lower than in the prepared area and the difference did not diminish during the period studied. The increase in temperature brought about by soil preparation thus lasts at least more than 10 years.

Wood procurement in the pressure of change.

Linear optimization model was used to calculate seven wood procurement scenarios for years 1990, 2000 and 2010. Productivity and cost functions for seven cutting, five terrain transport, three long distance transport and various work supervision and scaling methods were calculated from available work study reports. All method's base on Nordic cut to length system. Finland was divided in three parts for description of harvesting conditions. Twenty imaginary wood processing points and their wood procurement areas were created for these areas. The procurement systems, which consist of the harvesting conditions and work productivity functions, were described as a simulation model. In the LP-model the wood procurement system has to fulfil the volume and wood assortment requirements of processing points by minimizing the procurement cost. The model consists of 862 variables and 560 restrictions. Results show that it is economical to increase the mechanical work in harvesting. Cost increment alternatives effect only little on profitability of manual work. The areas of later thinnings and seed tree- and shelter wood cuttings increase on cost of first thinnings. In mechanized work one method, 10-tonne one grip harvester and forwarder, is gaining advantage among other methods. Working hours of forwarder are decreasing opposite to the harvester. There is only little need to increase the number of harvesters and trucks or their drivers from today's level. Quite large fluctuations in level of procurement and cost can be handled by constant number of machines, by alternating the number of season workers and by driving machines in two shifts. It is possible, if some environmental problems of large scale summer time harvesting can be solved.

Non-industrial private forest landowners’ choices of timber management strategies.

The factors affecting the non-industrial, private forest landowners' (hereafter referred to using the acronym NIPF) strategic decisions in management planning are studied. A genetic algorithm is used to induce a set of rules predicting potential cut of the landowners' choices of preferred timber management strategies. The rules are based on variables describing the characteristics of the landowners and their forest holdings. The predictive ability of a genetic algorithm is compared to linear regression analysis using identical data sets. The data are cross-validated seven times applying both genetic algorithm and regression analyses in order to examine the data-sensitivity and robustness of the generated models. The optimal rule set derived from genetic algorithm analyses included the following variables: mean initial volume, landowner's positive price expectations for the next eight years, landowner being classified as farmer, and preference for the recreational use of forest property. When tested with previously unseen test data, the optimal rule set resulted in a relative root mean square error of 0.40. In the regression analyses, the optimal regression equation consisted of the following variables: mean initial volume, proportion of forestry income, intention to cut extensively in future, and positive price expectations for the next two years. The R2 of the optimal regression equation was 0.34 and the relative root mean square error obtained from the test data was 0.38. In both models, mean initial volume and positive stumpage price expectations were entered as significant predictors of potential cut of preferred timber management strategy. When tested with the complete data set of 201 observations, both the optimal rule set and the optimal regression model achieved the same level of accuracy.

Estimation of cutting volume with three inventory methods for harvest planning in Canadian boreal forests.

Two methods of pre-harvest inventory were designed and tested on three cutting sites containing a total of 197 500 m3 of wood. These sites were located on flat-ground boreal forests located in northwestern Quebec. Both methods studied involved scaling of trees harvested to clear the road path one year (or more) prior to harvest of adjacent cut-blocks. The first method (ROAD) considers the total road right-of-way volume divided by the total road area cleared. The resulting volume per hectare is then multiplied by the total cut-block area scheduled for harvest during the following year to obtain the total estimated cutting volume. The second method (STRATIFIED) also involves scaling of trees cleared from the road. However, in STRATIFIED, log scaling data are stratified by forest stand location. A volume per hectare is calculated for each stretch of road that crosses a single forest stand. This volume per hectare is then multiplied by the remaining area of the same forest stand scheduled for harvest one year later. The sum of all resulting estimated volumes per stand gives the total estimated cutting-volume for all cut-blocks adjacent to the studied road. A third method (MNR) was also used to estimate cut-volumes of the sites studied. This method represents the actual existing technique for estimating cutting volume in the province of Quebec. It involves summing the cut volume for all forest stands. The cut volume is estimated by multiplying the area of each stand by its estimated volume per hectare obtained from standard stock tables provided by the governement. The resulting total estimated volume per cut-block for all three methods was then compared with the actual measured cut-block volume (MEASURED). This analysis revealed a significant difference between MEASURED and MNR methods with the MNR volume estimate being 30 % higher than MEASURED. However, no significant difference from MEASURED was observed for volume estimates for the ROAD and STRATIFIED methods which respectively had estimated cutting volumes 19 % and 5 % lower than MEASURED. Thus the ROAD and STRATIFIED methods are good ways to estimate cut-block volumes after road right-of-way harvest for conditions similar to those examined in this study.

Against the Vagueness Argument

In this paper I offer a counterexample to the so called vagueness argument against restricted composition. This will be done in the lines of a recent suggestion by Trenton Merricks, namely by challenging the claim that there cannot be a sharp cut-off point in a composition sequence. It will be suggested that causal powers which emerge when composition occurs can serve as an indicator of such sharp cut-off points. The main example will be the case of a heap. It seems that heaps might provide a very plausible counterexample to the vagueness argument if we accept the idea that four grains of sand is the least number required to compose a heap—the case has been supported by W. D. Hart. My purpose here is not to put forward a new theory of composition, I only wish to refute the vagueness argument and point out that we should be wary of arguments of its form.

Contamination routes and control of Listeria monocytogenes in Food Production

Listeria monocytogenes is the causative agent of the severe foodborne infection listeriosis. The number of listeriosis cases in recent years has increased in many European countries, including Finland. Contamination of the pathogen needs to be minimized and growth to high numbers in foods prevented in order to reduce the incidence of human cases. The aim of this study was to evaluate contamination routes of L. monocytogenes in the food chain and to investigate methods for control of the pathogen in food processing. L. monocytogenes was commonly found in wild birds, the pig production chain and in pork production plants. It was found most frequently in birds feeding at landfill site, organic farms, tonsil samples, and sites associated with brining. L. monococytogenes in birds, farms, food processing plant or foods did not form distinct genetic groups, but populations overlapped. The majority of genotypes recovered from birds were also detected in foods, food processing environments and other animal species and birds may disseminate L. monocytogenes into food chain. Similar genotypes were found in different pigs on the same farm, as well as in pigs on farms and later in the slaughterhouse. L. monocytogenes contamination spreads at farm level and may be a contamination source into slaughterhouses and further into meat. Incoming raw pork in the processing plant was frequently contaminated with L. monocytogenes and genotypes in raw meat were also found in processing environment and in RTE products. Thus, raw material seems to be a considerable source of contamination into processing facilities. In the pork processing plant, the prevalence of L. monocytogenes increased in the brining area, showing that the brining was an important contamination site. Recovery of the inoculated L. monocytogenes strains showed that there were strain-specific differences in the ability to survive in lettuce and dry sausage. The ability of some L. monocytogenes strains to survive well in food production raises a challenge for industry, because these strains can be especially difficult to remove from the products and raises a need to use an appropriate hurdle concept to control most resistant strains. Control of L. monocytogenes can be implemented throughout the food chain. Farm-specific factors affected the prevalence of L. monocytogenes and good farm-level practices can therefore be utilized to reduce the prevalence of this pathogen on the farm and possibly further in the food chain. Well separated areas in a pork production plant had low prevalences of L. monocytogenes, thus showing that compartmentalization controls the pathogen in the processing line. The food processing plant, especially the brining area, should be subjected to disassembling, extensive cleaning and disinfection to eliminate persistent contamination by L. monocytogenes, and replacing brining with dry-salting should be considered. All of the evaluated washing solutions decreased the populations of L. monocytogenes on precut lettuce, but did not eliminate the pathogen. Thus, the safety of fresh-cut produce cannot rely on washing with disinfectants, and high-quality raw material and good manufacturing practices remain important. L. monocytogenes was detected in higher levels in sausages without the protective culture than in sausages with this protective strain, although numbers of L. monocytogenes by the end of the ripening decreased to the level of < 100 MPN/g in all sausages. Protective starter cultures provide an appealing hurdle in dry sausage processing and assist in the control of L. monocytogenes.

Photosynthesis of ground vegetation in boreal Scots pine forests

Research on carbon uptake in boreal forests has mainly focused on mature trees, even though ground vegetation species are effective assimilators and can substantially contribute to the CO2 uptake of forests. Here, I examine the photosynthesis of the most common species of ground vegetation in a series of differently aged Scots pine stands, and at two clear-cut sites with substantial differences in fertility. In general, the biomass of evergreen species was highest at poor sites and below canopies, whereas grasses and herbs predominated at fertile sites and open areas. Unlike mosses, the measured vascular species showed clear annual cycles in their photosynthetic activity, which increased earlier and decreased later in evergreen vascular species than in deciduous species. However, intraspecific variation and self-shading create differences in the overall level of photosynthesis. Light, temperature history, soil moisture and recent possible frosts could explain the changes in photosynthesis of low shrubs and partially also some changes in deciduous species. Light and the occurrence of rain events explained most of the variation in the photosynthesis of mosses. The photosynthetic production of ground vegetation was first upscaled, using species-specific and mass-based photosynthetic activities and average biomass of the site, and then integrated over the growing season, using changes in environmental factors. Leaf mass-based photosynthesis was highest in deciduous species, resulting in notably higher photosynthetic production at fertile sites than at poor clear-cut sites. The photosynthetic production decreased with stand age, because flora changed towards evergreen species, and light levels diminished below the canopy. In addition, the leaf mass-based photosynthetic activity of some low shrubs declined with the age of the surrounding trees. Different measuring methods led to different momentary rate of photosynthesis. Therefore, the choice of measuring method needs special attention.

Harvesting undelimbed Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) from first thinnings for integrated production of kraft pulp and energy

The present study evaluates the feasibility of undelimbed Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) for integrated production of pulp and energy in a kraft pulp mill from the technical, economic and environmental points of view, focusing on the potential of bundle harvesting. The feasibility of tree sections for pulp production was tested by conducting an industrial wood-handling experiment, laboratory cooking and bleaching trials, using conventional small-diameter Scots pine pulpwood as a reference. These trials showed that undelimbed Scots pine sections can be processed in favourable conditions as a blend with conventional small-diameter pulpwood without reducing the pulp quality. However, fibre losses at various phases of the process may increase when using undelimbed material. In the economic evaluation, both pulp production and wood procurement costs were considered, using the relative wood paying capability of a kraft pulp mill as a determinant. The calculations were made for three Scots pine first-thinning stands with the breast-height diameter of the removal (6 12 cm) as the main distinctive factor. The supply chains included in the comparison were based on cut-to-length harvesting, whole-tree harvesting and bundle harvesting (whole-tree bundling). With the current ratio of pulp and energy prices, the wood paying capability declines with an increase in the proportion of the energy fraction of the raw material. The supply system based on the cut-to-length method was the most efficient option, resulting in the highest residual value at stump in most cases. A decline in the pulp price and an increase in the energy price improved the competitiveness of the whole-tree systems. With short truck transportation distances and low pulp prices, however, the harvesting of loose whole trees can result in higher residual value at stump in small-diameter stands. While savings in transportation costs did not compensate for the high cutting and compaction costs by the second prototype of the bundle harvester, an increase in transportation distances improved its competitiveness. Since harvesting undelimbed assortments increases nutrient export from the site, which can affect soil productivity, the whole-tree alternatives included in the present study cannot be recommended on infertile peatlands and mineral soils. The harvesting of loose whole trees or bundled whole trees implies a reduction in protective logging residues and an increase in site traffic or payloads. These factors increase the risk of soil damage, especially on peat soils with poor bearing capacity. Within the wood procurement parameters which were examined, the CO2 emissions of the supply systems varied from 13 27 kg m3. Compaction of whole trees into bundles reduced emissions from transportation by 30 39%, but these reductions were insufficient to compensate for the increased emissions from cutting and compaction.

Essays on labour demand and wage formation

The first essay in this thesis is on gender wage differentials among manufacturing sector white-collar workers. The wage differential is decomposed into firm, job (within-firm) and individ-ual-level components. Job-level gender segregation explains over half of the gap, while firm-level segregation is not important. After controlling for firm, job and individual characteristics, the remaining unexplained wage cap to the advantage of men is six per cent of men s mean wage. In the second essay, I study how the business cycle and gender affect the distribution of the earnings losses of displaced workers. The negative effect of displacement is large, persistent and strongest in the lowest earnings deciles. The effect is larger in a recession than in a recov-ery period, and in all periods women s earnings drop more than men s earnings. The third essay shows that the transition from steady employment to disability pension de-pends on the stringency of medical screening and the degree of experience-rating of pension costs applied to the employer. The fact that firms have to bear part of the cost of employees disability pension costs lowers both the incidence of long sick leave periods and the probabil-ity that sick leave ends in a disability pension. The fourth and fifth essays are studies on the employment, wage and profit effects of a re-gional payroll tax cut experiment conducted in northern and eastern Finland. The results show no statistically significant effect on any of the response variables.

Biomarkers in acute respiratory failure

Acute respiratory failure (ARF) is the most common type of organ failure leading to the need for intensive care. It is often secondary to acute lung injury (ALI) and its more severe form, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). ARF, and especially ALI and ARDS, cause increased morbidity, and mortality rates remain high (up to 40%). These disorders are characterised by inflammatory reaction and tissue damage. In some cases, inflammation continues and leads to an overwhelming repair process with ongoing fibrosis, accompanied by organ dysfunction and eventually a loss of function. Measuring the magnitude of the inflammation, and the repair process, would theoretically offer information concerning outcome. Early identification of patients whose disease process is likely to proceed unfavourably, would help clinicians to optimise their treatment. The aim of this study was to evaluate the epidemiology of ARF, its treatment, and outcome in Finland, with special interest in biomarkers, and their value in the prediction of mortality. Altogether, 958 adult patients treated with ventilatory support were prospectively included in this study during an eight week period in 2007 in 25 intensive care units. Plasma aminoterminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) was assessed in 602 patients, and plasma cell-free DNA in 580 patients, to evaluate their prognostic value in ARF. Markers of collagen metabolism were studied in longitudinal serum samples in 68 patients in order to evaluate their evolution in ARF and the association to multiple organ dysfunction (MOD). Ventilatory support was used in 39% of all ICU patients. The estimated incidence of ARF was 149.5/100 000 per year. Median tidal volumes used were higher than recommended. Overall mortality at 90 days was 31%. Plasma NT-pro-BNP and cell-free DNA were highly increased in the majority of patients. Both markers were independent predictors of 90-day mortality, but their discriminative power was at most moderate when used separately. The mortality was highest in those patients, in whom both biomarkers were over their separate cut-off values. Thus, combined use of these biomarkers may increase their clinical value in the mortality prediction. The markers of collagen metabolism changed significantly over time in surviving patients. None of these markers did associate with MOD in these patients.

Role of CIP2A in carcinogenesis

Worldwide and notably in the developed countries, cancer is an increasing cause of morbidity and mortality, being the second most common cause of death after ischemic heart disease. Now and in the future new cancer cases need to be diagnosed earlier. Prognostic factors may be helpful in recognizing and handling those patients who need more aggressive therapy, and it is also desirable to predict treatment response accurately. Cancerous inhibitor of protein phosphatase 2A (CIP2A) is an oncoprotein predominantly expressed in malignant tissues and inhibiting protein phosphatase 2A (PP2A) activity; it is a promising target for cancer therapy. The aim of this thesis was to evaluate the prognostic role of CIP2A in solid cancers, and for this purpose to explore expression of CIP2A, and investigating regulation of CIP2A in order to gain insight into signalling pathways leading to alteration in prognosis. Patients diagnosed with gastric, serous ovarian, tongue, or colorectal cancer at Helsinki University Central Hospital were included. Tumour tissue microarrays assembled from specimens from these patients were prepared and stained immunohistochemically for CIP2A protein expression. Associations with clinicopathologic parameters and other biomarkers were explored, and survival analyses were done according to the Kaplan-Meier method. Study of the role of CIP2A in intracellular signalling in vitro involved gastric, ovarian, and tongue cancer cell lines. We found CIP2A to be highly expressed in gastric, ovarian, tongue, and colorectal cancer specimens. CIP2A was associated with clinicopathologic parameters characterizing an aggressive disease, namely advanced stage, high grade, p53 immunopositivity, and high proliferation index. CIP2A led to recognition of gastric, ovarian, and tongue cancer patients with poor prognosis, however, with a cancer type-specific cut-off level for prognostic significance. In tongue cancer, it served as an independent prognostic marker. In contrast, in colorectal cancer, CIP2A provided no prognostic value. In cancer cell lines, CIP2A was highly expressed at both protein and mRNA levels, and promoted cell proliferation and anchorage-independent growth. In gastric cancer, we demonstrated with a MYCER construct in mouse embryo fibroblasts that activation of MYC led to increased CIP2A mRNA expression, and hence we suggested that a positive feedback mechanism between CIP2A and MYC may potentiate and prolong the oncogenic activity of these proteins. We demonstrated in ovarian cancer an association between CIP2A and EGFR protein overexpression and EGFR gene amplification. In ovarian and tongue cancer cells we showed that depletion of EGFR downregulates CIP2A expression. In conclusion, high CIP2A expression occurred frequently among patients with aggressive disease. CIP2A may serve as a prognostic marker in gastric, ovarian, and tongue cancer and thus may help in tailoring therapy for cancer patients. The positive feedback mechanism between CIP2A and MYC, as well as the positive regulation of CIP2A by EGFR, are a few signalling pathways regulating and regulated by CIP2A. These and other mechanisms need to be studied further, however. CIP2A is a potential target for therapy, and its potential role as predictive marker and as a tumour marker in serum requires exploration.