Search for single top quark production in pp̅ collisions at √s=1.96 TeV in the missing transverse energy plus jets topology

We report a search for single top quark production with the CDF II detector using 2.1 fb-1 of integrated luminosity of pbar p collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV. The data selected consist of events characterized by large energy imbalance in the transverse plane and hadronic jets, and no identified electrons and muons, so the sample is enriched in W -> tau nu decays. In order to suppress backgrounds, additional kinematic and topological requirements are imposed through a neural network, and at least one of the jets must be identified as a b-quark jet. We measure an excess of signal-like events in agreement with the standard model prediction, but inconsistent with a model without single top quark production by 2.1 standard deviations (sigma), with a median expected sensitivity of 1.4 sigma. Assuming a top quark mass of 175 GeV/c2 and ascribing the excess to single top quark production, the cross section is measured to be 4.9+2.5-2.2(stat+syst)pb, consistent with measurements performed in independent datasets and with the standard model prediction.

Search for New Bottomlike Quark Pair Decays QQ̅ →(tW∓)(t̅ W±) in Same-Charge Dilepton Events

We report the most restrictive direct limits on masses of fourth-generation down-type quarks b′, and quarklike composite fermions (B or T5/3), decaying promptly to tW∓. We search for a significant excess of events with two same-charge leptons (e, μ), several hadronic jets, and missing transverse energy. An analysis of data from pp̅ collisions with an integrated luminosity of 2.7  fb-1 collected with the CDF II detector at Fermilab yields no evidence for such a signal, setting mass limits mb′, mB>338  GeV/c2 and mT5/3>365  GeV/c2 at 95% confidence level.

Observation of single top quark production and measurement of |Vtb| with CDF

We report the observation of electroweak single top quark production in 3.2  fb-1 of pp̅ collision data collected by the Collider Detector at Fermilab at √s=1.96  TeV. Candidate events in the W+jets topology with a leptonically decaying W boson are classified as signal-like by four parallel analyses based on likelihood functions, matrix elements, neural networks, and boosted decision trees. These results are combined using a super discriminant analysis based on genetically evolved neural networks in order to improve the sensitivity. This combined result is further combined with that of a search for a single top quark signal in an orthogonal sample of events with missing transverse energy plus jets and no charged lepton. We observe a signal consistent with the standard model prediction but inconsistent with the background-only model by 5.0 standard deviations, with a median expected sensitivity in excess of 5.9 standard deviations. We measure a production cross section of 2.3-0.5+0.6(stat+sys)  pb, extract the value of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix element |Vtb|=0.91-0.11+0.11(stat+sys)±0.07  (theory), and set a lower limit |Vtb|>0.71 at the 95% C.L., assuming mt=175  GeV/c2.

Search for WW and WZ Resonances Decaying to Electron, Missing ET, and Two Jets in pp̅ Collisions at √s=1.96 TeV.

Using data from 2.9  fb-1 of integrated luminosity collected with the CDF II detector at the Tevatron, we search for resonances decaying into a pair of on-shell gauge bosons, WW or WZ, where one W decays into an electron and a neutrino, and the other boson decays into two jets. We observed no statistically significant excess above the expected standard model background, and we set cross section limits at 95% confidence level on G* (Randall-Sundrum graviton), Z′, and W′ bosons. By comparing these limits to theoretical cross sections, mass exclusion regions for the three particles are derived. The mass exclusion regions for Z′ and W′ are further evaluated as a function of their gauge coupling strength.

Search for New Bottomlike Quark Pair Decays QQ̅ →(tW∓)(t̅ W±) in Same-Charge Dilepton Events

We report the most restrictive direct limits on masses of fourth-generation down-type quarks $b^{\prime}$, and quark-like composite fermions ($B$ or $T_{5/3}$), decaying promptly to $t W^{\mp}$. We search for a significant excess of events with two same-charge leptons ($e$, $\mu$), several hadronic jets, and missing transverse energy. An analysis of data from $p\overline{p}$ collisions with an integrated luminosity of 2.7 fb$^{-1}$ collected with the CDF II detector at Fermilab yields no evidence for such a signal, setting mass limits $m_{b^{\prime}}, m_{B} >$ 338 $\mathrm{GeV}/c^2$ and $m_{T_{5/3}} >$ 365 $\mathrm{GeV}/c^2$ at 95% confidence level.

Observation of single top quark production and measurement of |Vtb| with CDF

We report the observation of electroweak single top quark production in 3.2 fb-1 of ppbar collision data collected by the Collider Detector at Fermilab at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV. Candidate events in the W+jets topology with a leptonically decaying W boson are classified as signal-like by four parallel analyses based on likelihood functions, matrix elements, neural networks, and boosted decision trees. These results are combined using a super discriminant analysis based on genetically evolved neural networks in order to improve the sensitivity. This combined result is further combined with that of a search for a single top quark signal in an orthogonal sample of events with missing transverse energy plus jets and no charged lepton. We observe a signal consistent with the standard model prediction but inconsistent with the background-only model by 5.0 standard deviations, with a median expected sensitivity in excess of 5.9 standard deviations. We measure a production cross section of 2.3+0.6-0.5(stat+sys) pb, extract the CKM matrix element value |Vtb|=0.91+0.11-0.11 (stat+sys)+-0.07(theory), and set a lower limit |Vtb|>0.71 at the 95% confidence level, assuming m_t=175 GeVc^2.

Search for WW and WZ Resonances Decaying to Electron, Missing ET, and Two Jets in pp̅ Collisions at √s=1.96 TeV.

Using data from 2.9/fb of integrated luminosity collected with the CDF II detector at the Tevatron, we search for resonances decaying into a pair of on-shell gauge bosons, WW or WZ, where one W decays into an electron and a neutrino, and the other boson decays into two jets. We observed no statistically significant excess above the expected standard model background, and we set cross section limits at 95% confidence level on G*(Randall-Sundrum graviton), Z', and W' bosons. By comparing these limits to theoretical cross sections, mass exclusion regions for the three particles are derived. The mass exclusion regions for Z' and W' are further evaluated as a function of their gauge coupling strength.

Strong Evidence for ZZ Production in pp̅ Collisions at √s=1.96 TeV

We report the first measurement of the cross section for Z boson pair production at a hadron collider. This result is based on a data sample corresponding to 1.9 fb-1 of integrated luminosity from ppbar collisions at sqrt{s} = 1.96 TeV collected with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron. In the llll channel, we observe three ZZ candidates with an expected background of 0.096^{+0.092}_{-0.063} events. In the llnunu channel, we use a leading-order calculation of the relative ZZ and WW event probabilities to discriminate between signal and background. In the combination of llll and llnunu channels, we observe an excess of events with a probability of $5.1\times 10^{-6}$ to be due to the expected background. This corresponds to a significance of 4.4 standard deviations. The measured cross section is sigma(ppbar -> ZZ) = 1.4^{+0.7}_{-0.6} (stat.+syst.) pb, consistent with the standard model expectation.

Search for High-Mass Resonances Decaying to Dimuons at CDF

We present a search for high-mass neutral resonances using dimuon data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.3 fb$^{-1}$ collected in {$p\bar p$} collisions at {$\sqrt{s}$ = 1.96 TeV} by the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron. No significant excess above the standard model expectation is observed in the dimuon invariant-mass spectrum. We set 95% confidence level upper limits on $\sigma \cdot BR (p \bar{p} \to X \to \mu \bar{\mu})$, where $X$ is a boson with spin 0, 1, or 2. Using these cross section limits, we determine lower mass limits on sneutrinos in R-parity-violating supersymmetric models, $Z'$ bosons, and Kaluza-Klein gravitons in the Randall-Sundrum model.

Evidence for a Narrow Near-Threshold Structure in the J/ψϕ Mass Spectrum in B+→J/ψϕK+ Decays

Evidence is reported for a narrow structure near the $J/\psi\phi$ threshold in exclusive $B^+\to J/\psi\phi K^+$ decays produced in $\bar{p} p $ collisions at $\sqrt{s}=1.96 \TeV$. A signal of $14\pm5$ events, with statistical significance in excess of 3.8 standard deviations, is observed in a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of $2.7 \ifb$, collected by the CDF II detector. The mass and natural width of the structure are measured to be $4143.0\pm2.9(\mathrm{stat})\pm1.2(\mathrm{syst}) \MeVcc$ and $11.7^{+8.3}_{-5.0}(\mathrm{stat})\pm3.7(\mathrm{syst}) \MeVcc$.

Search for New Physics with a Dijet Plus Missing ET Signature in pp̅ Collisions at √s=1.96 TeV

We present results of a signature-based search for new physics using a dijet plus missing transverse energy data sample collected in 2 fb-1 of p-pbar collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron. We observe no significant event excess with respect to the standard model prediction and extract a 95% C.L. upper limit on the cross section times acceptance for a potential contribution from a non-standard model process. Based on this limit the mass of a first or second generation scalar leptoquark is constrained to be above 187 GeV/c^2.

Observation of Electroweak Single Top-Quark Production

We report the first observation of single top quark production using 3.2 fb^-1 of pbar p collision data with sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV collected by the Collider Detector at Fermilab. The significance of the observed data is 5.0 standard deviations, and the expected sensitivity for standard model production and decay is in excess of 5.9 standard deviations. Assuming m_t=175 GeV/c^2, we measure a cross section of 2.3 +0.6 -0.5 (stat+syst) pb, extract the CKM matrix element value |V_{tb}|=0.91 +-0.11 (stat+syst) 0.07(theory), and set the limit |V_{tb}|>0.71 at the 95% C.L.

A Cointegration Approach to Topics in Empirical Macroeconomics (summary section only)

Mikael Juselius’ doctoral dissertation covers a range of significant issues in modern macroeconomics by empirically testing a number of important theoretical hypotheses. The first essay presents indirect evidence within the framework of the cointegrated VAR model on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor by using Finnish manufacturing data. Instead of estimating the elasticity of substitution by using the first order conditions, he develops a new approach that utilizes a CES production function in a model with a 3-stage decision process: investment in the long run, wage bargaining in the medium run and price and employment decisions in the short run. He estimates the elasticity of substitution to be below one. The second essay tests the restrictions implied by the core equations of the New Keynesian Model (NKM) in a vector autoregressive model (VAR) by using both Euro area and U.S. data. Both the new Keynesian Phillips curve and the aggregate demand curve are estimated and tested. The restrictions implied by the core equations of the NKM are rejected on both U.S. and Euro area data. These results are important for further research. The third essay is methodologically similar to essay 2, but it concentrates on Finnish macro data by adopting a theoretical framework of an open economy. Juselius’ results suggests that the open economy NKM framework is too stylized to provide an adequate explanation for Finnish inflation. The final essay provides a macroeconometric model of Finnish inflation and associated explanatory variables and it estimates the relative importance of different inflation theories. His main finding is that Finnish inflation is primarily determined by excess demand in the product market and by changes in the long-term interest rate. This study is part of the research agenda carried out by the Research Unit of Economic Structure and Growth (RUESG). The aim of RUESG it to conduct theoretical and empirical research with respect to important issues in industrial economics, real option theory, game theory, organization theory, theory of financial systems as well as to study problems in labor markets, macroeconomics, natural resources, taxation and time series econometrics. RUESG was established at the beginning of 1995 and is one of the National Centers of Excellence in research selected by the Academy of Finland. It is financed jointly by the Academy of Finland, the University of Helsinki, the Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation, Bank of Finland and the Nokia Group. This support is gratefully acknowledged.

Essays on the Modeling and Prediction of Volatility and Higher Moments of Stock Returns (summary section only)

One of the most fundamental and widely accepted ideas in finance is that investors are compensated through higher returns for taking on non-diversifiable risk. Hence the quantification, modeling and prediction of risk have been, and still are one of the most prolific research areas in financial economics. It was recognized early on that there are predictable patterns in the variance of speculative prices. Later research has shown that there may also be systematic variation in the skewness and kurtosis of financial returns. Lacking in the literature so far, is an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the potential benefits of these new more complicated models with time-varying higher moments. Such an evaluation is the topic of this dissertation. Essay 1 investigates the forecast performance of the GARCH (1,1) model when estimated with 9 different error distributions on Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Future returns. By utilizing the theory of realized variance to construct an appropriate ex post measure of variance from intra-day data it is shown that allowing for a leptokurtic error distribution leads to significant improvements in variance forecasts compared to using the normal distribution. This result holds for daily, weekly as well as monthly forecast horizons. It is also found that allowing for skewness and time variation in the higher moments of the distribution does not further improve forecasts. In Essay 2, by using 20 years of daily Standard and Poor 500 index returns, it is found that density forecasts are much improved by allowing for constant excess kurtosis but not improved by allowing for skewness. By allowing the kurtosis and skewness to be time varying the density forecasts are not further improved but on the contrary made slightly worse. In Essay 3 a new model incorporating conditional variance, skewness and kurtosis based on the Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution is proposed. The new model and two previously used NIG models are evaluated by their Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts on a long series of daily Standard and Poor’s 500 returns. The results show that only the new model produces satisfactory VaR forecasts for both 1% and 5% VaR Taken together the results of the thesis show that kurtosis appears not to exhibit predictable time variation, whereas there is found some predictability in the skewness. However, the dynamic properties of the skewness are not completely captured by any of the models.

The Negative News Threshold - an Explanation for Negative Skewness in Stock Returns

A vast literature documents negative skewness and excess kurtosis in stock return distributions on several markets. We approach the issue of negative skewness from a different angle than in previous studies by suggesting a model, which we denote the “negative news threshold” hypothesis, that builds on asymmetrically distributed information and symmetric market responses. Our empirical tests reveal that returns for days when non-scheduled news are disclosed are the source of negative skewness in stock returns. This finding lends solid support to our model and suggests that negative skewness in stock returns is induced by asymmetries in the news disclosure policies of firm management.