Technical efficiency of blood component preparation in blood centres of 10 European countries

Various reasons, such as ethical issues in maintaining blood resources, growing costs, and strict requirements for safe blood, have increased the pressure for efficient use of resources in blood banking. The competence of blood establishments can be characterized by their ability to predict the volume of blood collection to be able to provide cellular blood components in a timely manner as dictated by hospital demand. The stochastically varying clinical need for platelets (PLTs) sets a specific challenge for balancing supply with requests. Labour has been proven a primary cost-driver and should be managed efficiently. International comparisons of blood banking could recognize inefficiencies and allow reallocation of resources. Seventeen blood centres from 10 countries in continental Europe, Great Britain, and Scandinavia participated in this study. The centres were national institutes (5), parts of the local Red Cross organisation (5), or integrated into university hospitals (7). This study focused on the departments of blood component preparation of the centres. The data were obtained retrospectively by computerized questionnaires completed via Internet for the years 2000-2002. The data were used in four original articles (numbered I through IV) that form the basis of this thesis. Non-parametric data envelopment analysis (DEA, II-IV) was applied to evaluate and compare the relative efficiency of blood component preparation. Several models were created using different input and output combinations. The focus of comparisons was on the technical efficiency (II-III) and the labour efficiency (I, IV). An empirical cost model was tested to evaluate the cost efficiency (IV). Purchasing power parities (PPP, IV) were used to adjust the costs of the working hours and to make the costs comparable among countries. The total annual number of whole blood (WB) collections varied from 8,880 to 290,352 in the centres (I). Significant variation was also observed in the annual volume of produced red blood cells (RBCs) and PLTs. The annual number of PLTs produced by any method varied from 2,788 to 104,622 units. In 2002, 73% of all PLTs were produced by the buffy coat (BC) method, 23% by aphaeresis and 4% by the platelet-rich plasma (PRP) method. The annual discard rate of PLTs varied from 3.9% to 31%. The mean discard rate (13%) remained in the same range throughout the study period and demonstrated similar levels and variation in 2003-2004 according to a specific follow-up question (14%, range 3.8%-24%). The annual PLT discard rates were, to some extent, associated with production volumes. The mean RBC discard rate was 4.5% (range 0.2%-7.7%). Technical efficiency showed marked variation (median 60%, range 41%-100%) among the centres (II). Compared to the efficient departments, the inefficient departments used excess labour resources (and probably) production equipment to produce RBCs and PLTs. Technical efficiency tended to be higher when the (theoretical) proportion of lost WB collections (total RBC+PLT loss) from all collections was low (III). The labour efficiency varied remarkably, from 25% to 100% (median 47%) when working hours were the only input (IV). Using the estimated total costs as the input (cost efficiency) revealed an even greater variation (13%-100%) and overall lower efficiency level compared to labour only as the input. In cost efficiency only, the savings potential (observed inefficiency) was more than 50% in 10 departments, whereas labour and cost savings potentials were both more than 50% in six departments. The association between department size and efficiency (scale efficiency) could not be verified statistically in the small sample. In conclusion, international evaluation of the technical efficiency in component preparation departments revealed remarkable variation. A suboptimal combination of manpower and production output levels was the major cause of inefficiency, and the efficiency did not directly relate to production volume. Evaluation of the reasons for discarding components may offer a novel approach to study efficiency. DEA was proven applicable in analyses including various factors as inputs and outputs. This study suggests that analytical models can be developed to serve as indicators of technical efficiency and promote improvements in the management of limited resources. The work also demonstrates the importance of integrating efficiency analysis into international comparisons of blood banking.

Occupational determinants of pancreatic cancer

Objective and background. Tobacco smoking, pancreatitis and diabetes mellitus are the only known causes of pancreatic cancer, leaving ample room for yet unidentified determinants. This is an empirical study on a Finnish data on occupational exposures and pancreatic cancer risk, and a non-Bayesian and a hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis of data on occupational factors and pancreatic cancer. Methods. The case-control study analyzed 595 incident cases of pancreatic cancer and 1,622 controls of stomach, colon, and rectum cancer, diagnosed 1984-1987 and known to be dead by 1990 in Finland. The next-of-kin responded to a mail questionnaire on job and medical histories and lifestyles. Meta-analysis of occupational risk factors of pancreatic cancer started off with 1,903 identified studies. The analyses were based on different subsets of that database. Five epidemiologists examined the reports and extracted the pertinent data using a standardized extraction form that covered 20 study descriptors and the relevant relative risk estimates. Random effects meta-analyses were applied for 23 chemical agents. In addition, hierarchical Bayesian models for meta-analysis were applied to the occupational data of 27 job titles using job exposure matrix as a link matrix and estimating the relative risks of pancreatic cancer associated with nine occupational agents. Results. In the case-control study, logistic regressions revealed excess risks of pancreatic cancer associated with occupational exposures to ionizing radiation, nonchlorinated solvents, and pesticides. Chlorinated hydrocarbon solvents and related compounds, used mainly in metal degreasing and dry cleaning, are emerging as likely risk factors of pancreatic cancer in the non-Bayesian and the hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis. Consistent excess risk was found for insecticides, and a high excess for nickel and nickel compounds in the random effects meta-analysis but not in the hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis. Conclusions. In this study occupational exposure to chlorinated hydrocarbon solvents and related compounds and insecticides increase risk of pancreatic cancer. Hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis is applicable when studies addressing the agent(s) under study are lacking or very few, but several studies address job titles with potential exposure to these agents. A job-exposure matrix or a formal expert assessment system is necessary in this situation.

Terveyteen liittyvä elämänlaatu laitoskuntoutuksen vaikuttavuuden arvioinnissa : RAND-36-mittarin soveltuvuus työikäisten laitoskuntoutuksen ongelmaprofiilin määrittämiseen ja kuntoutuksen vaikutusten arvioimiseen

The aim of the present research was to examine the validity of the RAND-36 measure of health-related quality of life among the working age rehabilitation clients. The research included two cross-sectional studies and one follow-up study. The subjects of the first study (n = 794) participated in the first period of the five following types of rehabilitation: occupationally oriented medical rehabilitation, musculoskeletal rehabilitation, medical rehabilitation for job burnout, rehabilitation for supporting the work ability and capacity of disabled subjects (vocational rehabilitation) and individualized rehabilitation between October 2000 and October 2001. The subjects of the second study (n = 990) participated in the same rehabilitation during their first rehabilitation period between May 2007 and May 2008. The first subjects participated in a follow-up period no later than May 2003 with the exception of the individual rehabilitation clients (n = 588). Based on the ICF classification, the RAND-36 provides a diverse measure of the health-related quality of life and of the capacity for subjective, perceived physical and psycho-social functioning. The construct properties of the RAND-36 measure proved to be very consistent on the basis of both the cluster and confirmatory factor analyses. At the group level, the RAND-36 measure was shown to be illustrative and sensitive in differentiating the clients’ rehabilitation needs. The results of cluster analyses with the two cross-sectional data indicated a consistent five-cluster solution of rehabilitation groups on the basis of the eight subscales of health-related quality of life. Each of these clusters represented a clear difference in their need for rehabilitation. The RAND-36 measure proved to be sensitive to change. The changes observed in the pre- and post-conditions in relation to all the subscales of quality of life were statistically significant. Depending on the rehabilitation type, different changes in the subscales of the measure were observed, and these changes corresponded to the different emphasis and goals of the specific type of rehabilitation intervention. Similarly, changes in the subscales of the measure were observed in relation to the RAND groups formed by cluster analysis, which were logical and corresponded to the problem profiles of these groups. The confirmatory factor analysis indicated a two-factor solution: an index of the capacity for physical functioning (self-rated general health, bodily pain, physical functioning, physical role functioning) and an index of the capacity for psycho-social functioning (psychological well-being, social functioning, psychological role functioning and energy). These two indices describing functional capacity proved also to be sensitive to change. This two-factor solution seems to be usable for group level analyses when assessing the effects of rehabilitation. The moderately strong correlation between the RAND-36 and work ability index suggests that they partly measure the same phenomenon: perceived health-related quality of life, subjective capacity for activity and perceived work ability have strong links. As expected, the capacity for physical functioning had a stronger correlation with work ability index than with the capacity for psycho-social functioning. According to the present research, the RAND-36 measure can be considered as a screening method for rehabilitation orientation in relation to rehabilitation needs and as a follow-up measure for the health-related quality of life among the working age clients. The RAND-36 measure is also shown to be a useful instrument in estimating the benefits of rehabilitation as well as in effectiveness research.

Methicillin Resistance In Staphylococci : Horizontal Transfer of Mobile Genetic Element (SCCmec) Between Staphylococcal Species

Regardless of the existence of antibiotics, infectious diseases are the leading causes of death in the world. Staphylococci cause many infections of varying severity, although they can also exist peacefully in many parts of the human body. Most often Staphylococcus aureus colonises the nose, and that colonisation is considered to be a risk factor for spread of this bacterium. S. aureus is considered to be the most important Staphylococcus species. It poses a challenge to the field of medicine, and one of the most problematic aspects is the drastic increase of the methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) strains in hospitals and community world-wide, including Finland. In addition, most of the clinical coagulase-negative staphylococcus (CNS) isolates express resistance to methicillin. Methicillin-resistance in S. aureus is caused by the mecA gene that encodes an extra penicillin-binding protein (PBP) 2a. The mecA gene is found in a mobile genomic island called staphylococcal chromosome cassette mec (SCCmec). The SCCmec consists of the mec gene and cassette chromosome recombinase (ccr)gene complexes. The areas of the SCCmec element outside the ccr and mec complex are known as the junkyard J regions. So far, eight types of SCCmec(SCCmec I- SCCmec VIII) and a number of variants have been described. The SCCmec island is an acquired element in S. aureus. Lately, it appears that CNS might be the storage place of the SCCmec that aid the S. aureus by providing it with the resistant elements. The SCCmec is known to exist only in the staphylococci. The aim of the present study was to investigate the horizontal transfer of SCCmec between the S. aureus and CNS. One specific aim was to study whether or not some methicillin-sensitive S. aureus (MSSA) strains are more inclined to receive the SCCmec than others. This was done by comparing the genetic background of clinical MSSA isolates in the health care facilities of the Helsinki and Uusimaa Hospital District in 2001 to the representatives of the epidemic MRSA (EMRSA) genotypes, which have been encountered in Finland during 1992-2004. Majority of the clinical MSSA strains were related to the EMRSA strains. This finding suggests that horizontal transfer of SCCmec from unknown donor(s) to several MSSA background genotypes has occurred in Finland. The molecular characteristics of representative clinical methicillin-resistant S. epidermidis (MRSE) isolates recovered in Finnish hospitals between 1990 and 1998 were also studied, examining their genetic relation to each other and to the internationally recognised MRSE clones as well, so as to ascertain the common traits between the SCCmec elements in MRSE and MRSA. The clinical MRSE strains were genetically related to each other; eleven PFGE types were associated with sequence type ST2 that has been identified world-wide. A single MRSE strain may possess two SCCmec types III and IV, which were recognised among the MRSA strains. Moreover, six months after the onset of an outbreak of MRSA possessing a SCCmec type V in a long-term care facility in Northern Finland (LTCF) in 2003, the SCCmec element of nasally carried methicillin-resistant staphylococci was studied. Among the residents of a LTCF, nasal carriage of MR-CNS was common with extreme diversity of SCCmec types. MRSE was the most prevalent CNS species. Horizontal transfer of SCCmec elements is speculated to be based on the sharing of SCCmec type V between MRSA and MRSE in the same person. Additionally, the SCCmec element of the clinical human S. sciuri isolates was studied. Some of the SCCmec regions were present in S. sciuri and the pls gene was common in it. This finding supports the hypothesis of genetic exchange happening between staphylococcal species. Evaluation of the epidemiology of methicillin-resistant staphylococcal colonisation is necessary in order to understand the apparent emergence of these strains and to develop appropriate control strategies. SCCmec typing is essential for understanding the emergence of MRSA strains from CNS, considering that the MR-CNS may represent the gene pool for the continuous creation of new SCCmec types from which MRSA might originate.

Novel Insights into the Molecular Genetic Background of Colorectal Tumors

Many of the genes predisposing to highly penetrant colorectal cancer (CRC) syndromes, including hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer (MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, PMS2), familial adenomatous polyposis (APC), Peutz-Jeghers syndrome (LKB1), juvenile polyposis (SMAD4, BMPR1A), MYH-associated polyposis (MYH), and Cowden syndrome (PTEN) have already been discovered. Identification of these genes has allowed a more precise classification of the hereditary CRC syndromes and provided a means for predictive genetic testing and surveillance. Some of the genes are also involved in sporadic cancer forms, and therefore the investigation of the rare CRC syndromes has been a breakthrough for general cancer research. Despite the accumulating knowledge on hereditary cancer syndromes, a significant number of familial CRCs remain molecularly unexplained after genetic testing, reflecting the possibility of other predisposing genes or existence of novel syndromes. Moreover, genetic variants conferring low-penetrance risk are still largely unknown. In this study, we examined the role of some new high- and low-penetrance alleles on CRC predisposition. We identified disease causing MYH mutations in a subset (9%) of patients with APC and AXIN2 mutation negative adenomatous polyposis. Due to differences in the pattern of inheritance and clinical manifestation, screening for mutations in MYH is beneficial in view of genetic counselling and surveillance. A novel functionally deficient MYH founder mutation A459D was identified in the Finnish population, and this finding had immediate clinical implications for genetic counselling of at risk families. Many patients with hamartomatous polyposis remain without molecular diagnosis due to atypical phenotypes. We therefore sought to classify 49 patients with unexplained hamartomatous or hyperplastic/mixed polyposis by extensive molecular analyses of PTEN, LKB1, BMPR1A, SMAD4, ENG, BRAF, MYH, and BHD along with revision of polyp histology. Mutations were identified in 11/49 (22%) of the patients. In 6 cases the molecular diagnosis was re-classified guiding surveillance and decisions for prophylactic surgery. Re-evaluation of polyp histology with subsequent more accurate selection of candidate gene analyses is beneficial and can be recommended for patients with unexplained polyposis. Furthermore, germline mutations in ENG underlying juvenile polyposis were described for the first time, characterizing a possible novel genetically defined form of hereditary CRC. Association analyses on two putative low-penetrance alleles, NOD2 3020insC and MDM2 SNP309 were performed in a population-based series of 1042 Finnish CRC patients and in cancer-free controls. In contrast to previous results, NOD2 3020insC did not associate with CRC or age at disease onset in the Finnish population. These data suggest that NOD2 3020insC alone might not be sufficient for CRC predisposition. MDM2 SNP309 was as common in the CRC cohort as in the healthy controls. Interesting trends, however, were observed, which after correction for multiple testing did not reach statistical significance. SNP309 was more common in female CRC patients and a trend towards an earlier age at disease onset was observed in women with SNP309. Subsequent studies have supported this observation and SNP309 could affect gender- or hormone-related tumorigenesis. Finally, a large-scale unbiased effort was designed to characterize the complete mutatome of CRC with microsatellite instability (MSI). Using an approach combining expression microarray and genome database searches, we were able to identify putative MSI target genes. Further characterization of one of the genes suggested that it might play a role also in microsatellite stable CRC and Peutz-Jeghers syndrome pathogenesis.

Soil carbon modelling as a tool for carbon balance studies in forestry

Soils represent a remarkable stock of carbon, and forest soils are estimated to hold half of the global stock of soil carbon. Topical concern about the effects of climate change and forest management on soil carbon as well as practical reporting requirements set by climate conventions have created a need to assess soil carbon stock changes reliably and transparently. The large spatial variability of soil carbon commensurate with relatively slow changes in stocks hinders the assessment of soil carbon stocks and their changes by direct measurements. Models therefore widely serve to estimate carbon stocks and stock changes in soils. This dissertation aimed to develop the soil carbon model YASSO for upland forest soils. The model was aimed to take into account the most important processes controlling the decomposition in soils, yet remain simple enough to ensure its practical applicability in different applications. The model structure and assumptions were presented and the model parameters were defined with empirical measurements. The model was evaluated by studying the sensitivities of the model results to parameter values, by estimating the precision of the results with an uncertainty analysis, and by assessing the accuracy of the model by comparing the predictions against measured data and to the results of an alternative model. The model was applied to study the effects of intensified biomass extraction on the forest carbon balance and to estimate the effects of soil carbon deficit on net greenhouse gas emissions of energy use of forest residues. The model was also applied in an inventory based method to assess the national scale forest carbon balance for Finland’s forests from 1922 to 2004. YASSO managed to describe sufficiently the effects of both the variable litter and climatic conditions on decomposition. When combined with the stand models or other systems providing litter information, the dynamic approach of the model proved to be powerful for estimating changes in soil carbon stocks on different scales. The climate dependency of the model, the effects of nitrogen on decomposition and forest growth as well as the effects of soil texture on soil carbon stock dynamics are areas for development when considering the applicability of the model to different research questions, different land use types and wider geographic regions. Intensified biomass extraction affects soil carbon stocks, and these changes in stocks should be taken into account when considering the net effects of forest residue utilisation as energy. On a national scale, soil carbon stocks play an important role in forest carbon balances.

The efficacy and potential risks of controlling sprouting in Finnish birches (Betula spp.) with the fungal decomposer Chondrostereum purpureum

Sprouting of fast-growing broad-leaved trees causes problems in young coniferous stands, under power transmission lines and along roads and railways. Public opinion and the Finnish Forest Certification System oppose the use of chemical herbicides to control sprouting, which means that most areas with problems rely on mechanical cutting. However, cutting is a poor control method for many broad-leaved species because the removal of leaders can stimulate the sprouting of side branches and cut stumps quickly re-sprout. In order to be effective, cutting must be carried out frequently but each cut increases the costs, making this control method increasingly difficult and expensive once begun. As such, alternative methods for sprout control that are both effective and environmentally sound represent a continuing challenge to managers and research biologists. Using biological control agents to prevent sprouting has been given serious consideration recently. Dutch and Canadian researchers have demonstrated the potential of the white-rot fungus Chondrostereum purpureum (Pers. ex Fr.) Pouzar as a control agent of stump sprouting in many hardwoods. These findings have focused the attention of the Finnish forestry community on the utilization of C. purpureum for biocontrol purposes. Primarily, this study sought determines the efficacy of native C. purpureum as an inhibitor of birch stump sprouting in Finland and to clarify its mode of action. Additionally, genotypic variation in Finnish C. purpureum was examined and the environmental risks posed by a biocontrol program using this fungus were assessed. Experimental results of the study demonstrated that C. purpureum clearly affects the sprouting of birch: both the frequency of living stumps and the number of living sprouts per stump were effectively reduced by the treatment. However, the treatment had no effect on the maximum height of new sprouts. There were clear differences among fungal isolates in preventing sprouting and those that possessed high oxidative activities as measured in the laboratory inhibited sprouting most efficiently in the field. The most effective treatment time during the growing season was in early and mid summer (May July). Genetic diversity in Nordic and Baltic populations of C. purpureum was found to be high at the regional scale but locally homogeneous. This natural distribution of diversity means that using local genotypes in biocontrol programs would effectively prevent the introduction of novel genes or genotypes. While a biocontrol program using local strains of C. purpureum would be environmentally neutral, pruned birches that are close to the treatment site would have a high susceptibility to infect by the fungus during the early spring.

Heterotrophic Bacteria Associated with Cyanobacteria in Recreational and Drinking Water

Cyanobacterial mass occurrences, also known as water blooms, have been associated with adverse health effects of both humans and animals. They can also be a burden to drinking water treatment facilities. Risk assessments of the blooms have generally focused on the cyanobacteria themselves and their toxins. However, heterotrophic bacteria thriving among cyanobacteria may also be responsible for many of the adverse health effects, but their role as the etiological agents of these health problems is poorly known. In addition, studies on the water purification efficiency of operating water treatment plants during cyanobacterial mass occurrences in their water sources are rare. In the present study, over 600 heterotrophic bacterial strains were isolated from natural freshwater, brackish water or from treated drinking water. The sampling sites were selected as having frequent cyanobacterial occurrences in the water bodies or in the water sources of the drinking water treatment plants. In addition, samples were taken from sites where cyanobacterial water blooms were surmised to have caused human health problems. The isolated strains represented bacteria from 57 different genera of the Gamma-, Alpha- or Betaproteobacteria, Actinobacteria, Flavobacteria, Sphingobacteria, Bacilli and Deinococci classes, based on their partial 16S rRNA sequences. Several isolates had no close relatives among previously isolated bacteria or cloned 16S rRNA genes of uncultivated bacteria. The results show that water blooms are associated with a diverse community of cultivable heterotrophic bacteria. Chosen subsets of the isolated strains were analysed for features such as their virulence gene content and possible effect on cyanobacterial growth. Of the putatively pathogenic haemolytic strains isolated in the study, the majority represented the genus Aeromonas. Therefore, the Aeromonas spp. strains isolated from water samples associated with adverse health effects were screened for the virulence gene types encoding for enterotoxins (ast, alt and act/aerA/hlyA), flagellin subunits (flaA/flaB), lipase (lip/pla/lipH3/alp-1) and elastase (ahyB) by PCR. The majority (90%) of the Aeromonas strains included one or more of the six screened Aeromonas virulence gene types. The most common gene type was act, which was present in 77% of the strains. The fla, ahyB and lip genes were present in 30 37% of the strains. The prevalence of the virulence genes implies that the Aeromonas may be a factor in some of the cyanobacterial associated health problems. Of the 183 isolated bacterial strains that were studied for possible effects on cyanobacterial growth, the majority (60%) either enhanced or inhibited growth of cyanobacteria. In most cases, they enhanced the growth, which implies mutualistic interactions. The results indicate that the heterotrophic bacteria have a role in the rise and fall of the cyanobacterial water blooms. The genetic and phenotypic characteristics and the ability to degrade cyanobacterial hepatotoxins of 13 previously isolated Betaproteobacteria strains, were also studied. The strains originated from Finnish lakes with frequent cyanobacterial occurrence. Tested strains degraded microcystins -LR and -YR and nodularin. The strains could not be assigned to any described bacterial genus or species based on their genetic or phenotypic features. On the basis of their characteristics a new genus and species Paucibacter toxinivorans was proposed for them. The water purification efficiency of the drinking water treatment processes during cyanobacterial water bloom in water source was assessed at an operating surface water treatment plant. Large phytoplankton, cyanobacterial hepatotoxins, endotoxins and cultivable heterotrophic bacteria were efficiently reduced to low concentrations, often below the detection limits. In contrast, small planktonic cells, including also possible bacterial cells, regularly passed though the water treatment. The passing cells may contribute to biofilm formation within the water distribution system, and therefore lower the obtained drinking water quality. The bacterial strains of this study offer a rich source of isolated strains for examining interactions between cyanobacteria and the heterotrophic bacteria associated with them. The degraders of cyanobacterial hepatotoxins could perhaps be utilized to assist the removal of the hepatotoxins during water treatment, whereas inhibitors of cyanobacterial growth might be useful in controlling cyanobacterial water blooms. The putative pathogenicity of the strains suggests that the health risk assessment of the cyanobacterial blooms should also cover the heterotrophic bacteria.

Information, risk and trust in the food chain : Ex-ante valuation of consumer willingness to pay for beef quality information using the contingent valuation method

The safety of food has become an increasingly interesting issue to consumers and the media. It has also become a source of concern, as the amount of information on the risks related to food safety continues to expand. Today, risk and safety are permanent elements within the concept of food quality. Safety, in particular, is the attribute that consumers find very difficult to assess. The literature in this study consists of three main themes: traceability; consumer behaviour related to both quality and safety issues and perception of risk; and valuation methods. The empirical scope of the study was restricted to beef, because the beef labelling system enables reliable tracing of the origin of beef, as well as attributes related to safety, environmental friendliness and animal welfare. The purpose of this study was to examine what kind of information flows are required to ensure quality and safety in the food chain for beef, and who should produce that information. Studying the willingness to pay of consumers makes it possible to determine whether the consumers consider the quantity of information available on the safety and quality of beef sufficient. One of the main findings of this study was that the majority of Finnish consumers (73%) regard increased quality information as beneficial. These benefits were assessed using the contingent valuation method. The results showed that those who were willing to pay for increased information on the quality and safety of beef would accept an average price increase of 24% per kilogram. The results showed that certain risk factors impact consumer willingness to pay. If the respondents considered genetic modification of food or foodborne zoonotic diseases as harmful or extremely harmful risk factors in food, they were more likely to be willing to pay for quality information. The results produced by the models thus confirmed the premise that certain food-related risks affect willingness to pay for beef quality information. The results also showed that safety-related quality cues are significant to the consumers. In the first place, the consumers would like to receive information on the control of zoonotic diseases that are contagious to humans. Similarly, other process-control related information ranked high among the top responses. Information on any potential genetic modification was also considered important, even though genetic modification was not regarded as a high risk factor.

Valuation of reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland : Choice experiment with attention to heterogeneous and discontinuous preferences and respondent uncertainty

Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea is a serious problem. This thesis estimates the benefit to Finns from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland, the most eutrophied part of the Baltic Sea, by applying the choice experiment method, which belongs to the family of stated preference methods. Because stated preference methods have been subject to criticism, e.g., due to their hypothetical survey context, this thesis contributes to the discussion by studying two anomalies that may lead to biased welfare estimates: respondent uncertainty and preference discontinuity. The former refers to the difficulty of stating one s preferences for an environmental good in a hypothetical context. The latter implies a departure from the continuity assumption of conventional consumer theory, which forms the basis for the method and the analysis. In the three essays of the thesis, discrete choice data are analyzed with the multinomial logit and mixed logit models. On average, Finns are willing to contribute to the water quality improvement. The probability for willingness increases with residential or recreational contact with the gulf, higher than average income, younger than average age, and the absence of dependent children in the household. On average, for Finns the relatively most important characteristic of water quality is water clarity followed by the desire for fewer occurrences of blue-green algae. For future nutrient reduction scenarios, the annual mean household willingness to pay estimates range from 271 to 448 and the aggregate welfare estimates for Finns range from 28 billion to 54 billion euros, depending on the model and the intensity of the reduction. Out of the respondents (N=726), 72.1% state in a follow-up question that they are either Certain or Quite certain about their answer when choosing the preferred alternative in the experiment. Based on the analysis of other follow-up questions and another sample (N=307), 10.4% of the respondents are identified as potentially having discontinuous preferences. In relation to both anomalies, the respondent- and questionnaire-specific variables are found among the underlying causes and a departure from standard analysis may improve the model fit and the efficiency of estimates, depending on the chosen modeling approach. The introduction of uncertainty about the future state of the Gulf increases the acceptance of the valuation scenario which may indicate an increased credibility of a proposed scenario. In conclusion, modeling preference heterogeneity is an essential part of the analysis of discrete choice data. The results regarding uncertainty in stating one s preferences and non-standard choice behavior are promising: accounting for these anomalies in the analysis may improve the precision of the estimates of benefit from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland.

Kemian ylioppilaskokeen tehtävät summatiivisen arvioinnin välineenä

The main purpose of the research was to illustrate chemistry matriculation examination questions as a summative assessment tool, and represent how the questions have evolved over the years. Summative assessment and its various test item classifications, Finnish goal-oriented curriculum model, and Bloom’s Revised Taxonomy of Cognitive Objectives formed the theoretical framework for the research. The research data consisted of 257 chemistry questions from 28 matriculation examinations between 1996 and 2009. The analysed test questions were formulated according to the national upper secondary school chemistry curricula 1994, and 2003. Qualitative approach and theory-driven content analysis method were employed in the research. Peer review was used to guarantee the reliability of the results. The research was guided by the following questions: (a) What kinds of test item formats are used in chemistry matriculation examinations? (b) How the fundamentals of chemistry are included in the chemistry matriculation examination questions? (c) What kinds of cognitive knowledge and skills do the chemistry matriculation examination questions require? The research indicates that summative assessment was used diversely in chemistry matriculation examinations. The tests included various test item formats, and their combinations. The majority of the test questions were constructed-response items that were either verbal, quantitative, or experimental questions, symbol questions, or combinations of the aforementioned. The studied chemistry matriculation examinations seldom included selected-response items that can be either multiple-choice, alternate choice, or matching items. The relative emphasis of the test item formats differed slightly depending on whether the test was a part of an extensive general studies battery of tests in sciences and humanities, or a subject-specific test. The classification framework developed in the research can be applied in chemistry and science education, and also in educational research. Chemistry matriculation examinations are based on the goal-oriented curriculum model, and cover relatively well the fundamentals of chemistry included in the national curriculum. Most of the test questions related to the symbolism of chemical equation, inorganic and organic reaction types and applications, the bonding and spatial structure in organic compounds, and stoichiometry problems. Only a few questions related to electrolysis, polymers, or buffer solutions. None of the test questions related to composites. There were not any significant differences in the emphasis between the tests formulated according to the national curriculum 1994 or 2003. Chemistry matriculation examinations are cognitively demanding. The research shows that the majority of the test questions require higher-order cognitive skills. Most of the questions required analysis of procedural knowledge. The questions that only required remembering or processing metacognitive knowledge, were not included in the research data. The required knowledge and skill level varied slightly between the test questions in the extensive general studies battery of tests in sciences and humanities, and subject-specific tests administered since 2006. The proportion of the Finnish chemistry matriculation examination questions requiring higher-order cognitive knowledge and skills is very large compared to what is discussed in the research literature.

Topographical, structural and geophysical characterization of fracture zones: implications for groundwater flow and vulnerability

The main objective of this study is to evaluate selected geophysical, structural and topographic methods on regional, local, and tunnel and borehole scales, as indicators of the properties of fracture zones or fractures relevant to groundwater flow. Such information serves, for example, groundwater exploration and prediction of the risk of groundwater inflow in underground construction. This study aims to address how the features detected by these methods link to groundwater flow in qualitative and semi-quantitative terms and how well the methods reveal properties of fracturing affecting groundwater flow in the studied sites. The investigated areas are: (1) the Päijänne Tunnel for water-conveyance whose study serves as a verification of structures identified on regional and local scales; (2) the Oitti fuel spill site, to telescope across scales and compare geometries of structural assessment; and (3) Leppävirta, where fracturing and hydrogeological environment have been studied on the scale of a drilled well. The methods applied in this study include: the interpretation of lineaments from topographic data and their comparison with aeromagnetic data; the analysis of geological structures mapped in the Päijänne Tunnel; borehole video surveying; groundwater inflow measurements; groundwater level observations; and information on the tunnel s deterioration as demonstrated by block falls. The study combined geological and geotechnical information on relevant factors governing groundwater inflow into a tunnel and indicators of fracturing, as well as environmental datasets as overlays for spatial analysis using GIS. Geophysical borehole logging and fluid logging were used in Leppävirta to compare the responses of different methods to fracturing and other geological features on the scale of a drilled well. Results from some of the geophysical measurements of boreholes were affected by the large diameter (gamma radiation) or uneven surface (caliper) of these structures. However, different anomalies indicating more fractured upper part of the bedrock traversed by well HN4 in Leppävirta suggest that several methods can be used for detecting fracturing. Fracture trends appear to align similarly on different scales in the zone of the Päijänne Tunnel. For example, similarities of patterns were found between the regional magnetic trends, correlating with orientations of topographic lineaments interpreted as expressions of fracture zones. The same structural orientations as those of the larger structures on local or regional scales were observed in the tunnel, even though a match could not be made in every case. The size and orientation of the observation space (patch of terrain at the surface, tunnel section, or borehole), the characterization method, with its typical sensitivity, and the characteristics of the location, influence the identification of the fracture pattern. Through due consideration of the influence of the sampling geometry and by utilizing complementary fracture characterization methods in tandem, some of the complexities of the relationship between fracturing and groundwater flow can be addressed. The flow connections demonstrated by the response of the groundwater level in monitoring wells to pressure decrease in the tunnel and the transport of MTBE through fractures in bedrock in Oitti, highlight the importance of protecting the tunnel water from a risk of contamination. In general, the largest values of drawdown occurred in monitoring wells closest to the tunnel and/or close to the topographically interpreted fracture zones. It seems that, to some degree, the rate of inflow shows a positive correlation with the level of reinforcement, as both are connected with the fracturing in the bedrock. The following geological features increased the vulnerability of tunnel sections to pollution, especially when several factors affected the same locations: (1) fractured bedrock, particularly with associated groundwater inflow; (2) thin or permeable overburden above fractured rock; (3) a hydraulically conductive layer underneath the surface soil; and (4) a relatively thin bedrock roof above the tunnel. The observed anisotropy of the geological media should ideally be taken into account in the assessment of vulnerability of tunnel sections and eventually for directing protective measures.

Bayesian fisheries stock assessment: integrating and updating knowledge

In this thesis the use of the Bayesian approach to statistical inference in fisheries stock assessment is studied. The work was conducted in collaboration of the Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute by using the problem of monitoring and prediction of the juvenile salmon population in the River Tornionjoki as an example application. The River Tornionjoki is the largest salmon river flowing into the Baltic Sea. This thesis tackles the issues of model formulation and model checking as well as computational problems related to Bayesian modelling in the context of fisheries stock assessment. Each article of the thesis provides a novel method either for extracting information from data obtained via a particular type of sampling system or for integrating the information about the fish stock from multiple sources in terms of a population dynamics model. Mark-recapture and removal sampling schemes and a random catch sampling method are covered for the estimation of the population size. In addition, a method for estimating the stock composition of a salmon catch based on DNA samples is also presented. For most of the articles, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation has been used as a tool to approximate the posterior distribution. Problems arising from the sampling method are also briefly discussed and potential solutions for these problems are proposed. Special emphasis in the discussion is given to the philosophical foundation of the Bayesian approach in the context of fisheries stock assessment. It is argued that the role of subjective prior knowledge needed in practically all parts of a Bayesian model should be recognized and consequently fully utilised in the process of model formulation.

Bayesian Inference for Retrospective Population Genetics Models Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

Genetics, the science of heredity and variation in living organisms, has a central role in medicine, in breeding crops and livestock, and in studying fundamental topics of biological sciences such as evolution and cell functioning. Currently the field of genetics is under a rapid development because of the recent advances in technologies by which molecular data can be obtained from living organisms. In order that most information from such data can be extracted, the analyses need to be carried out using statistical models that are tailored to take account of the particular genetic processes. In this thesis we formulate and analyze Bayesian models for genetic marker data of contemporary individuals. The major focus is on the modeling of the unobserved recent ancestry of the sampled individuals (say, for tens of generations or so), which is carried out by using explicit probabilistic reconstructions of the pedigree structures accompanied by the gene flows at the marker loci. For such a recent history, the recombination process is the major genetic force that shapes the genomes of the individuals, and it is included in the model by assuming that the recombination fractions between the adjacent markers are known. The posterior distribution of the unobserved history of the individuals is studied conditionally on the observed marker data by using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm (MCMC). The example analyses consider estimation of the population structure, relatedness structure (both at the level of whole genomes as well as at each marker separately), and haplotype configurations. For situations where the pedigree structure is partially known, an algorithm to create an initial state for the MCMC algorithm is given. Furthermore, the thesis includes an extension of the model for the recent genetic history to situations where also a quantitative phenotype has been measured from the contemporary individuals. In that case the goal is to identify positions on the genome that affect the observed phenotypic values. This task is carried out within the Bayesian framework, where the number and the relative effects of the quantitative trait loci are treated as random variables whose posterior distribution is studied conditionally on the observed genetic and phenotypic data. In addition, the thesis contains an extension of a widely-used haplotyping method, the PHASE algorithm, to settings where genetic material from several individuals has been pooled together, and the allele frequencies of each pool are determined in a single genotyping.

Gene flow from transgenic plant populations: models and applications for risk assessment

The future use of genetically modified (GM) plants in food, feed and biomass production requires a careful consideration of possible risks related to the unintended spread of trangenes into new habitats. This may occur via introgression of the transgene to conventional genotypes, due to cross-pollination, and via the invasion of GM plants to new habitats. Assessment of possible environmental impacts of GM plants requires estimation of the level of gene flow from a GM population. Furthermore, management measures for reducing gene flow from GM populations are needed in order to prevent possible unwanted effects of transgenes on ecosystems. This work develops modeling tools for estimating gene flow from GM plant populations in boreal environments and for investigating the mechanisms of the gene flow process. To describe spatial dimensions of the gene flow, dispersal models are developed for the local and regional scale spread of pollen grains and seeds, with special emphasis on wind dispersal. This study provides tools for describing cross-pollination between GM and conventional populations and for estimating the levels of transgenic contamination of the conventional crops. For perennial populations, a modeling framework describing the dynamics of plants and genotypes is developed, in order to estimate the gene flow process over a sequence of years. The dispersal of airborne pollen and seeds cannot be easily controlled, and small amounts of these particles are likely to disperse over long distances. Wind dispersal processes are highly stochastic due to variation in atmospheric conditions, so that there may be considerable variation between individual dispersal patterns. This, in turn, is reflected to the large amount of variation in annual levels of cross-pollination between GM and conventional populations. Even though land-use practices have effects on the average levels of cross-pollination between GM and conventional fields, the level of transgenic contamination of a conventional crop remains highly stochastic. The demographic effects of a transgene have impacts on the establishment of trangenic plants amongst conventional genotypes of the same species. If the transgene gives a plant a considerable fitness advantage in comparison to conventional genotypes, the spread of transgenes to conventional population can be strongly increased. In such cases, dominance of the transgene considerably increases gene flow from GM to conventional populations, due to the enhanced fitness of heterozygous hybrids. The fitness of GM plants in conventional populations can be reduced by linking the selectively favoured primary transgene to a disfavoured mitigation transgene. Recombination between these transgenes is a major risk related to this technique, especially because it tends to take place amongst the conventional genotypes and thus promotes the establishment of invasive transgenic plants in conventional populations.