55 resultados para R-square


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Abstract (Irony as object of research: Is it possible to explore what is between the lines?): The main concern of this article is the interpretation of irony: how is it brought about and how can it be investigated? The method applied is based on authentic texts and their elicited interpretations − a method referred to in this article response analysis. Interpretation of irony in the approach taken is seen as being crucially dependent on the notion of coherence. A text is perceived as being coherent if it (a) makes sense and if it(b) hangs together. Incoherent texts can result in an ironic interpretation; however, the incoherence must also be perceived as being intentional, and intentionality in turn is a sign of the edge of the ironist. Ironic interpretation is defined as a combination of five factors: (1) an ironic edge that (2) reflects the intention of the ironist, and (3) has a target and (4) a victim too. Essential to irony is its fifth factor, the fact that one or more of these four factors must be inferred from co(n)text. This definition of irony is crucial in distinguishing irony from non-irony, and it also helps to discern the differences as well as the similarities between irony and related phenomena.

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The objective of this paper is to investigate the pricing accuracy under stochastic volatility where the volatility follows a square root process. The theoretical prices are compared with market price data (the German DAX index options market) by using two different techniques of parameter estimation, the method of moments and implicit estimation by inversion. Standard Black & Scholes pricing is used as a benchmark. The results indicate that the stochastic volatility model with parameters estimated by inversion using the available prices on the preceding day, is the most accurate pricing method of the three in this study and can be considered satisfactory. However, as the same model with parameters estimated using a rolling window (the method of moments) proved to be inferior to the benchmark, the importance of stable and correct estimation of the parameters is evident.

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The aim of this study was to evaluate and test methods which could improve local estimates of a general model fitted to a large area. In the first three studies, the intention was to divide the study area into sub-areas that were as homogeneous as possible according to the residuals of the general model, and in the fourth study, the localization was based on the local neighbourhood. According to spatial autocorrelation (SA), points closer together in space are more likely to be similar than those that are farther apart. Local indicators of SA (LISAs) test the similarity of data clusters. A LISA was calculated for every observation in the dataset, and together with the spatial position and residual of the global model, the data were segmented using two different methods: classification and regression trees (CART) and the multiresolution segmentation algorithm (MS) of the eCognition software. The general model was then re-fitted (localized) to the formed sub-areas. In kriging, the SA is modelled with a variogram, and the spatial correlation is a function of the distance (and direction) between the observation and the point of calculation. A general trend is corrected with the residual information of the neighbourhood, whose size is controlled by the number of the nearest neighbours. Nearness is measured as Euclidian distance. With all methods, the root mean square errors (RMSEs) were lower, but with the methods that segmented the study area, the deviance in single localized RMSEs was wide. Therefore, an element capable of controlling the division or localization should be included in the segmentation-localization process. Kriging, on the other hand, provided stable estimates when the number of neighbours was sufficient (over 30), thus offering the best potential for further studies. Even CART could be combined with kriging or non-parametric methods, such as most similar neighbours (MSN).

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Background and context Since the economic reforms of 1978, China has been acclaimed as a remarkable economy, achieving 9% annual growth per head for more than 25 years. However, China's health sector has not fared well. The population health gains slowed down and health disparities increased. In the field of health and health care, significant progress in maternal care has been achieved. However, there still remain important disparities between the urban and rural areas and among the rural areas in terms of economic development. The excess female infant deaths and the rapidly increasing sex ratio at birth in the last decade aroused serious concerns among policy makers and scholars. Decentralization of the government administration and health sector reform impacts maternal care. Many studies using census data have been conducted to explore the determinants of a high sex ratio at birth, but no agreement has been so far reached on the possible contributing factors. No study using family planning system data has been conducted to explore perinatal mortality and sex ratio at birth and only few studies have examined the impact of the decentralization of government and health sector reforms on the provision and organization of maternal care in rural China. Objectives The general objective of this study was to investigate the state of perinatal health and maternal care and their determinants in rural China under the historic context of major socioeconomic reforms and the one child family planning policy. The specific objectives of the study included: 1) to study pregnancy outcomes and perinatal health and their correlates in a rural Chinese county; 2) to examine the issue of sex ratio at birth and its determinants in a rural Chinese county; 3) to explore the patterns of provision, utilization, and content of maternal care in a rural Chinese county; 4) to investigate the changes in the use of maternal care in China from 1991 to 2003. Materials and Methods This study is based on a project for evaluating the prenatal care programme in Dingyuan county in 1999-2003, Anhui province, China and a nationwide household health survey to describe the changes in maternal care utilization. The approaches used included a retrospective cohort study, cross sectional interview surveys, informant interviews, observations and the use of statistical data. The data sources included the following: 1) A cohort of pregnant women followed from pregnancy up to 7 days after birth in 20 townships in the study county, collecting information on pregnancy outcomes using family planning records; 2) A questionnaire interview survey given to women who gave birth between 2001 and 2003; 3) Various statistical and informant surveys data collected from the study county; 4) Three national household health interview survey data sets (1993-2003) were utilized, and reanalyzed to described the changes in maternity care utilization. Relative risks (RR) and their confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for comparison between parity, approval status, infant sex and township groups. The chi-square test was used to analyse the disparity of use of maternal care between and within urban and rural areas and its trend across the years in China. Logistic regression was used to analyse the factors associated with hospital delivery in rural areas. Results There were 3697 pregnancies in the study cohort, resulting in 3092 live births in a total population of 299463 in the 20 study townships during 1999-2000. The average age at pregnancy in the cohort was 25.9 years. Of the women, 61% were childless, 38% already had one child and 0.3% had two children before the current pregnancy. About 90% of approved pregnancies ended in a live birth while 73% of the unapproved ones were aborted. The perinatal mortality rate was 69 per thousand births. If the 30 induced abortions in which the gestational age was more than 28 weeks had been counted as perinatal deaths, the perinatal mortality rate would have been as high as 78 per thousand. The perinatal mortality rate was negatively associated with the wealth of the township. Approximately two thirds of the perinatal deaths occurred in the early neonatal period. Both the still birth rate and the early neonatal death rate increased with parity. The risk of a stillbirth in a second pregnancy was almost four times that for a first pregnancy, while the risk of early neonatal deaths doubled. The early neonatal mortality rate was twice as high for female as for male infants. The sex difference in the early neonatal mortality rate was mainly attributable to mortality in second births. The male early neonatal mortality rate was not affected by parity, while the female early neonatal mortality rate increased dramatically with parity: it was about six times higher for second births than for first births. About 82% early neonatal deaths happened within 24 hours after birth, and during that time, girls were almost three times more likely to die than boys. The death rate of females on the day of birth increased much more sharply with parity than that of males. The total sex ratio at birth of 3697 registered pregnancies was 152 males to 100 females, with 118 and 287 in first and second pregnancies, respectively. Among unapproved pregnancies, there were almost 5 live-born boys for each girl. Most prenatal and delivery care was to be taken care of in township hospitals. At the village level, there were small private clinics. There was no limitation period for the provision of prenatal and postnatal care by private practitioners. They were not permitted to provide delivery care by the county health bureau, but as some 12% of all births occurred either at home or at private clinics; some village health workers might have been involved. The county level hospitals served as the referral centers for the township hospitals in the county. However, there was no formal regulation or guideline on how the referral system should work. Whether or not a woman was referred to a higher level hospital depended on the individual midwife's professional judgment and on the clients' compliance. The county health bureau had little power over township hospitals, because township hospitals had in the decentralization process become directly accountable to the township government. In the township and county hospitals only 10-20% of the recurrent costs were funded by local government (the township hospital was funded by the township government and the county hospital was funded by the county government) and the hospitals collected user fees to balance their budgets. Also the staff salaries depended on fee incomes by the hospital. The hospitals could define the user charges themselves. Prenatal care consultations were however free in most township hospitals. None of the midwives made postnatal home visits, because of low profit of these services. The three national household health survey data showed that the proportion of women receiving their first prenatal visit within 12 weeks increased greatly from the early to middle 1990s in all areas except for large cities. The increase was much larger in the rural areas, reducing the urban-rural difference from more than 4 times to about 1.4 times. The proportion of women that received antenatal care visits meeting the Ministry of Health s standard (at least 5 times) in the rural areas increased sharply from 12% in 1991-1993 to 36% in 2001-2003. In rural areas, the proportion increase was much faster in less developed areas than in developed areas. The hospital delivery rate increased slightly from 90% to 94% in urban areas while the proportion increased from 27% to 69% in rural areas. The fastest change was found to be in type 4 rural areas, where the utilization even quadrupled. The overall difference between rural and urban areas was substantially narrowed over the period. Multiple logistic regression analysis shows that time periods, residency in rural or urban areas, income levels, age group, education levels, delivery history, occupation, health insurance and distance from the nearest health care facilities were significantly associated with hospital delivery rates. Conclusions 1. Perinatal mortality in this study was much higher than that for urban areas as well as any reported rate from specific studies in rural areas of China. Previous studies in which calculations of infant mortality were not based on epidemiological surveys have been shown to underestimate the rates by more than 50%. 2. Routine statistics collected by the Chinese family planning system proved to be a reliable data source for studying perinatal health, including still births, neonatal deaths, sex ratio at birth and among newborns. National Household Health Survey data proved to be a useful and reliable data source for studying population health and health services. Prior to this research there were few studies in these areas available to international audiences. 3.Though perinatal mortality rate was negatively associated with the level of township economic development, the excess female early neonatal mortality rate contributed much more to high perinatal mortality rate than economic factors. This was likely a result of the role of the family planning policy and the traditional preferences for sons, which leads to lethal neglect of female newborns and high perinatal mortality. 4. The selective abortions of female foetuses were likely to contribute most to the high sex ratio at birth. The underreporting of female births seemed to have played a secondary role. The higher early neonatal mortality rate in second-born as compared to first-born children, particularly in females, may indicate that neglect or poorer care of female newborn infants also contributes to the high sex ratio at birth or among newborns. Existing family planning policy proved not to effectively control the steadily increased birth sex ratio. 5. The rural-urban gap in service utilization was on average significantly narrowed in terms of maternal healthcare in China from 1991 to 2003. This demonstrates that significant achievements in reducing inequities can be made through a combination of socio-economic development and targeted investments in improving health services, including infrastructure, staff capacities, and subsidies to reduce the costs of service utilization for the poorest. However, the huge gap which persisted among cities of different size and within different types of rural areas indicated the need for further efforts to support the poorest areas. 6. Hospital delivery care in the study county was better accepted by women because most of women think delivery care was very important while prenatal and postnatal care were not. Hospital delivery care was more systematically provided and promoted than prenatal and postnatal care by township hospital in the study area. The reliance of hospital staff income on user fees gave the hospitals an incentive to put more emphasis on revenue generating activities such as delivery care instead of prenatal and postnatal care, since delivery care generated much profits than prenatal and postnatal care . Recommendations 1. It is essential for the central government to re-assess and modify existing family planning policies. In order to keep national sex balance, the existing practice of one couple one child in urban areas and at-least-one-son a couple in rural areas should be gradually changed to a two-children-a-couple policy throughout the country. The government should establish a favourable social security policy for couples, especially for rural couples who have only daughters, with particular emphasis on their pension and medical care insurance, combined with an educational campaign for equal rights for boys and girls in society. 2. There is currently no routine vital-statistics registration system in rural China. Using the findings of this study, the central government could set up a routine vital-statistics registration system using family planning routine work records, which could be used by policy makers and researchers. 3. It is possible for the central and provincial government to invest more in the less developed and poor rural areas to increase the access of pregnant women in these areas to maternal care services. Central government together with local government should gradually provide free maternal care including prenatal and postnatal as well as delivery care to the women in poor and less developed rural areas. 4. Future research could be done to explore if county and the township level health care sector and the family planning system could be merged to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of maternal and child care. 5. Future research could be done to explore the relative contribution of maternal care, economic development and family planning policy on perinatal and child health using prospective cohort studies and community based randomized trials. Key words: perinatal health, perinatal mortality, stillbirth, neonatal death, sex selective abortion, sex ratio at birth, family planning, son preference, maternal care, prenatal care, postnatal care, equity, China

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This study investigates the affinities between philosophy, aesthetics, and music of Japan and the West. The research is based on the structuralist notion (specifically, on that found in the narratology of Algirdas Julius Greimas), that the universal grammar functions as an abstract principle, underlying all kinds of discourse. The study thus aims to demonstrate how this grammar is manifested in philosophical, aesthetic, and musical texts and how the semiotic homogeneity of these texts can be explained on this basis. Totality and belongingness are the key philosophical concepts presented herein. As distinct from logocentrism manifested as substantializations of the world of ideas , god or mind, which was characteristic of previous Western paradigms, totality was defined as the coexistence of opposites. Thus Heidegger, Merleau-Ponty, Dōgen, and Nishida often illustrated it by identifying fundamental polarities, such as being and nothing, seer and seen, truth and illusion, etc. Accordingly, totality was schematically presented as an all-encompassing middle of the semiotic square. Similar values can be found in aesthetics and arts. Instead of dialectic syntagms, differentiated unity is considered as paradigmatic and the study demonstrates how this is manifested in traditional Japanese and Heideggerian aesthetics, as well as in the aspects of music of Claude Debussy and Tōru Takemitsu.

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The area of Östersundom (29,1 square kilometers) was attached to Helsinki in the beginning of the year 2009. Östersundom is formed mostly from the municipality of Sipoo, and partly from the city of Vantaa. Nowadays Östersundom is still quite rural, but city planning has already started, and there are plans to develop Östersundom into a district with 45 000 inhabitants. In this study, the headwaters, streams and small lakes of Östersundom were studied to produce information as a basis for city planning. There are six main streams and five small lakes in Östersundom. The main methodology used in this study was the examination of the physical and the chemical quality of the water. The hygienic quality of the water was also studied. It was also examined whether the waters are in their natural state, or have they been treated and transformed by man. In addition, other factors affecting the waters were examined. Geographical information data was produced as a result of this work. Östersundom is the main area looked at in this study, some factors are examined in the scope of the catchment areas. Water samples were collected in three sampling periods: 31.8 4.9.2009, 3. 4.2.2010, and 10. 14.4.2010. There were 20 sampling points in Östersundom (5 in small lakes, 15 in streams). In the winter sampling period, only six samples were collected, from which one was taken from a small lake. Field measurements associated with water sampling included water temperature, oxygen concentration, pH and electoral conductivity. Water samples were analyzed in the Laboratories of Physical Geography in the University of Helsinki for the following properties: total suspended solids (TSS), total dissolved substances (TDS), organic matter, alkalinity, colour, principal anions and cations and trace elements. Metropolilab analyzed the amount of faecal coliform bacteria in the samples. The waters in Östersundom can be divided to three classes according to water quality and other characteristics: the upper course of the streams, the lower course of the streams and the small lakes. The streams in their upper course are in general acidic, and their acid neutralization capacity is low. The proportion of the organic matter is high. Also the concentrations of aluminium and iron tend to be high. The streams in the lower course have acidity closer to neutral, and the buffering capacity is good. The amounts of TSS and TDS are high, and as a result, the concentrations of many ions and trace elements are high as well. Bacteria were detected at times in the streams of the lower course. Four of the five small lakes in Östersundom are humic and acidic. TSS and TDS concentrations tend to be low, but the proportion of organic matter is often high. There were no bacteria in the small lakes. The fifth small lake (Landbonlampi) differs from the others by its water colour, which is very clear. This lake is very acidic, and its buffering capacity is extremely low. Compared to the headwaters in Finland in general, the concentrations of many ions and trace elements are higher in Östersundom. On the other hand, the characteristics of water were different according to the classification upper course streams, lower course streams, and small lakes. Generally, the best water quality was observed in the stream of Gumbölenpuro and in the lakes Storträsk, Genaträsk, Hältingträsk and Landbonlampi. Several valuable waters in their natural state were discovered from the area. The most representative example is the stream of Östersundominpuro in its lower course, where the stream flows through a broad-leaf forest area. The small lakes of Östersundom, and the biggest stream Krapuoja, with its meandering channel, are also valuable in their natural state.