Building Information Modelling – Experts´ Views on Standardisation and Industry Deployment

The goal of the single building information model has existed for at least thirty years and various standards have been published leading up to the ten-year development of the Industry Foundation Classes. These have been initiatives from researchers, software developers and standards committees. Now large property owners are becoming aware of the benefits of moving IT tools from specific applications towards more comprehensive solutions. This study addresses the state of Building Information Models and the conditions necessary for them to become more widely used. It is a qualitative study based on information from a number of international experts and has asked a series of questions about the feasibility of BIMs, the conditions necessary for their success, and the role of standards with particular reference to the IFCs. Some key statements were distilled from the diverse answers received and indicate that BIM solutions appear too complex for many and may need to be applied in limited areas initially. Standards are generally supported but not applied rigorously and a range of these are relevant to BIM. Benefits will depend upon the building procurement methods used and there should be special roles within the project team to manage information. Case studies are starting to appear and these could be used for publicity. The IFCs are rather oversold and their complexities should be hidden within simple-to-use software. Inevitably major questions remain and property owners may be the key to answering some of these. A framework for presenting standards, backed up by case studies of successful projects, is the solution proposed to provide better information on where particular BIM standards and solutions should be applied in building projects.

Modelling and Forecasting Property Rents and Returns (summary section only)

Recently, focus of real estate investment has expanded from the building-specific level to the aggregate portfolio level. The portfolio perspective requires investment analysis for real estate which is comparable with that of other asset classes, such as stocks and bonds. Thus, despite its distinctive features, such as heterogeneity, high unit value, illiquidity and the use of valuations to measure performance, real estate should not be considered in isolation. This means that techniques which are widely used for other assets classes can also be applied to real estate. An important part of investment strategies which support decisions on multi-asset portfolios is identifying the fundamentals of movements in property rents and returns, and predicting them on the basis of these fundamentals. The main objective of this thesis is to find the key drivers and the best methods for modelling and forecasting property rents and returns in markets which have experienced structural changes. The Finnish property market, which is a small European market with structural changes and limited property data, is used as a case study. The findings in the thesis show that is it possible to use modern econometric tools for modelling and forecasting property markets. The thesis consists of an introduction part and four essays. Essays 1 and 3 model Helsinki office rents and returns, and assess the suitability of alternative techniques for forecasting these series. Simple time series techniques are able to account for structural changes in the way markets operate, and thus provide the best forecasting tool. Theory-based econometric models, in particular error correction models, which are constrained by long-run information, are better for explaining past movements in rents and returns than for predicting their future movements. Essay 2 proceeds by examining the key drivers of rent movements for several property types in a number of Finnish property markets. The essay shows that commercial rents in local markets can be modelled using national macroeconomic variables and a panel approach. Finally, Essay 4 investigates whether forecasting models can be improved by accounting for asymmetric responses of office returns to the business cycle. The essay finds that the forecast performance of time series models can be improved by introducing asymmetries, and the improvement is sufficient to justify the extra computational time and effort associated with the application of these techniques.

Real Estate Investment and Uncertainty: Econometric Modelling using Finnish Data

The purpose of this paper is to test for the effect of uncertainty in a model of real estate investment in Finland during the hihhly cyclical period of 1975 to 1998. We use two alternative measures of uncertainty. The first measure is the volatility of stock market returns and the second measure is the heterogeneity in the answers of the quarterly business survey of the Confederation of Finnish Industry and Employers. The econometric analysis is based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model and the paper applies a 'general-to-specific' modelling approach. We find that the measure of heterogeneity is significant in the model, but the volatility of stock market returns is not. The empirical results give some evidence of an uncertainty-induced threshold slowing down real estate investment in Finland.

Unrealized expectations of jumps in volatility: An explanation to the low and time-varying predictive power of implied volatility

The low predictive power of implied volatility in forecasting the subsequently realized volatility is a well-documented empirical puzzle. As suggested by e.g. Feinstein (1989), Jackwerth and Rubinstein (1996), and Bates (1997), we test whether unrealized expectations of jumps in volatility could explain this phenomenon. Our findings show that expectations of infrequently occurring jumps in volatility are indeed priced in implied volatility. This has two important consequences. First, implied volatility is actually expected to exceed realized volatility over long periods of time only to be greatly less than realized volatility during infrequently occurring periods of very high volatility. Second, the slope coefficient in the classic forecasting regression of realized volatility on implied volatility is very sensitive to the discrepancy between ex ante expected and ex post realized jump frequencies. If the in-sample frequency of positive volatility jumps is lower than ex ante assessed by the market, the classic regression test tends to reject the hypothesis of informational efficiency even if markets are informationally effective.

Modelling the dynamics of a large sea area

Yhteenveto: Laajan merialueen dynamiikan mallintaminen

Association between molecular variation in the phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi) locus and migration propensity in the Glanville fritillary butterfly

Habitat fragmentation produces patches of suitable habitat surrounded by unfavourable matrix habitat. A species may persist in such a fragmented landscape in an equilibrium between the extinctions and recolonizations of local populations, thus forming a metapopulation. Migration between local populations is necessary for the long-term persistence of a metapopulation. The Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) forms a metapopulation in the Åland islands in Finland. There is migration between the populations, the extent of which is affected by several environmental factors and variation in the phenotype of individual butterflies. Different allelic forms of the glycolytic enzyme phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi) has been identified as a possible genetic factor influencing flight performance and migration rate in this species. The frequency of a certain Pgi allele, Pgi-f, follows the same pattern in relation to population age and connectivity as migration propensity. Furthermore, variation in flight metabolic performance, which is likely to affect migration propensity, has been linked to genetic variation in Pgi or a closely linked locus. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between Pgi genotype and the migration propensity in the Glanville fritillary both at the individual and population levels using a statistical modelling approach. A mark-release-recapture (MRR) study was conducted in a habitat patch network of M. cinxia in Åland to collect data on the movements of individual butterflies. Larval samples from the study area were also collected for population level examinations. Each butterfly and larva was genotyped at the Pgi locus. The MRR data was parameterised with two mathematical models of migration: the Virtual Migration Model (VM) and the spatially explicit diffusion model. VM model predicted and observed numbers of emigrants from populations with high and low frequencies of Pgi-f were compared. Posterior predictive data sets were simulated based on the parameters of the diffusion model. Lack-of-fit of observed values to the model predicted values of several descriptors of movements were detected, and the effect of Pgi genotype on the deviations was assessed by randomizations including the genotype information. This study revealed a possible difference in the effect of Pgi genotype on migration propensity between the two sexes in the Glanville fritillary. The females with and males without the Pgi-f allele moved more between habitat patches, which is probably related to differences in the function of flight in the two sexes. Females may use their high flight capacity to migrate between habitat patches to find suitable oviposition sites, whereas males may use it to acquire mates by keeping a territory and fighting off other intruding males, possibly causing them to emigrate. The results were consistent across different movement descriptors and at the individual and population levels. The effect of Pgi is likely to be dependent on the structure of the landscape and the prevailing environmental conditions.

Modelling initial survival and growth of radiata pine in New Zealand.

A sensitive framework has been developed for modelling young radiata pine survival, its growth and its size class distribution, from time of planting to age 5 or 6 years. The data and analysis refer to the Central North Island region of New Zealand. The survival function is derived from a Weibull probability density function, to reflect diminishing mortality with the passage of time in young stands. An anamorphic family of trends was used, as very little between-tree competition can be expected in young stands. An exponential height function was found to fit best the lower portion of its sigmoid form. The most appropriate basal area/ha exponential function included an allometric adjustment which resulted in compatible mean height and basal area/ha models. Each of these equations successfully represented the effects of several establishment practices by making coefficients linear functions of site factors, management activities and their interactions. Height and diameter distribution modelling techniques that ensured compatibility with stand values were employed to represent the effects of management practices on crop variation. Model parameters for this research were estimated using data from site preparation experiments in the region and were tested with some independent data sets.

Nanoscale studies of materials using x-ray synchrotron radiation and mesoscopic modelling

X-ray synchrotron radiation was used to study the nanostructure of cellulose in Norway spruce stem wood and powders of cobalt nanoparticles in cellulose support. Furthermore, the growth of metallic clusters was modelled and simulated in the mesoscopic size scale. Norway spruce was characterized with x-ray microanalysis at beamline ID18F of the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility in Grenoble. The average dimensions and the orientation of cellulose crystallites was determined using x-ray microdiffraction. In addition, the nutrient element content was determined using x-ray fluorescence spectroscopy. Diffraction patterns and fluorescence spectra were simultaneously acquired. Cobalt nanoparticles in cellulose support were characterized with x-ray absorption spectroscopy at beamline X1 of the Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron in Hamburg, complemented by home lab experiments including x-ray diffraction, electron microscopy and measurement of magnetic properties with a vibrating sample magnetometer. Extended x-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (EXAFS) and x-ray diffraction were used to solve the atomic arrangement of the cobalt nanoparticles. Scanning- and transmission electron microscopy were used to image the surfaces of the cellulose fibrils, where the growth of nanoparticles takes place. The EXAFS experiment was complemented by computational coordination number calculations on ideal spherical nanocrystals. The growth process of metallic nanoclusters on cellulose matrix is assumed to be rather complicated, affected not only by the properties of the clusters themselves, but essentially depending on the cluster-fiber interfaces as well as the morphology of the fiber surfaces. The final favored average size for nanoclusters, if such exists, is most probably a consequence of these two competing tendencies towards size selection, one governed by pore sizes, the other by the cluster properties. In this thesis, a mesoscopic model for the growth of metallic nanoclusters on porous cellulose fiber (or inorganic) surfaces is developed. The first step in modelling was to evaluate the special case of how the growth proceeds on flat or wedged surfaces.

Mathematical modelling of groundwater pollution in a small heterogeneous aquifer at Kärkölä, southern Finland

Yhteenveto: Kärkölän likaantuneen pohjavesialueen matemaattinen mallinnus

Modelling vacuum arcs : from plasma initiation to surface interactions

A better understanding of vacuum arcs is desirable in many of today's 'big science' projects including linear colliders, fusion devices, and satellite systems. For the Compact Linear Collider (CLIC) design, radio-frequency (RF) breakdowns occurring in accelerating cavities influence efficiency optimisation and cost reduction issues. Studying vacuum arcs both theoretically as well as experimentally under well-defined and reproducible direct-current (DC) conditions is the first step towards exploring RF breakdowns. In this thesis, we have studied Cu DC vacuum arcs with a combination of experiments, a particle-in-cell (PIC) model of the arc plasma, and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of the subsequent surface damaging mechanism. We have also developed the 2D Arc-PIC code and the physics model incorporated in it, especially for the purpose of modelling the plasma initiation in vacuum arcs. Assuming the presence of a field emitter at the cathode initially, we have identified the conditions for plasma formation and have studied the transitions from field emission stage to a fully developed arc. The 'footing' of the plasma is the cathode spot that supplies the arc continuously with particles; the high-density core of the plasma is located above this cathode spot. Our results have shown that once an arc plasma is initiated, and as long as energy is available, the arc is self-maintaining due to the plasma sheath that ensures enhanced field emission and sputtering. The plasma model can already give an estimate on how the time-to-breakdown changes with the neutral evaporation rate, which is yet to be determined by atomistic simulations. Due to the non-linearity of the problem, we have also performed a code-to-code comparison. The reproducibility of plasma behaviour and time-to-breakdown with independent codes increased confidence in the results presented here. Our MD simulations identified high-flux, high-energy ion bombardment as a possible mechanism forming the early-stage surface damage in vacuum arcs. In this mechanism, sputtering occurs mostly in clusters, as a consequence of overlapping heat spikes. Different-sized experimental and simulated craters were found to be self-similar with a crater depth-to-width ratio of about 0.23 (sim) - 0.26 (exp). Experiments, which we carried out to investigate the energy dependence of DC breakdown properties, point at an intrinsic connection between DC and RF scaling laws and suggest the possibility of accumulative effects influencing the field enhancement factor.