Simulating and Forecasting the Demand for New Consumer Durables

A diffusion/replacement model for new consumer durables designed to be used as a long-term forecasting tool is developed. The model simulates new demand as well as replacement demand over time. The model is called DEMSIM and is built upon a counteractive adoption model specifying the basic forces affecting the adoption behaviour of individual consumers. These forces are the promoting forces and the resisting forces. The promoting forces are further divided into internal and external influences. These influences are operationalized within a multi-segmental diffusion model generating the adoption behaviour of the consumers in each segment as an expected value. This diffusion model is combined with a replacement model built upon the same segmental structure as the diffusion model. This model generates, in turn, the expected replacement behaviour in each segment. To be able to use DEMSIM as a forecasting tool in early stages of a diffusion process estimates of the model parameters are needed as soon as possible after product launch. However, traditional statistical techniques are not very helpful in estimating such parameters in early stages of a diffusion process. To enable early parameter calibration an optimization algorithm is developed by which the main parameters of the diffusion model can be estimated on the basis of very few sales observations. The optimization is carried out in iterative simulation runs. Empirical validations using the optimization algorithm reveal that the diffusion model performs well in early long-term sales forecasts, especially as it comes to the timing of future sales peaks.

Optimization of sample preparation for next-generation sequencing with Illumina Genome Analyzer II

The growing interest for sequencing with higher throughput in the last decade has led to the development of new sequencing applications. This thesis concentrates on optimizing DNA library preparation for Illumina Genome Analyzer II sequencer. The library preparation steps that were optimized include fragmentation, PCR purification and quantification. DNA fragmentation was performed with focused sonication in different concentrations and durations. Two column based PCR purification method, gel matrix method and magnetic bead based method were compared. Quantitative PCR and gel electrophoresis in a chip were compared for DNA quantification. The magnetic bead purification was found to be the most efficient and flexible purification method. The fragmentation protocol was changed to produce longer fragments to be compatible with longer sequencing reads. Quantitative PCR correlates better with the cluster number and should thus be considered to be the default quantification method for sequencing. As a result of this study more data have been acquired from sequencing with lower costs and troubleshooting has become easier as qualification steps have been added to the protocol. New sequencing instruments and applications will create a demand for further optimizations in future.

A metabolomic approach to studying mechanisms of polymeric gene delivery to retinal pigment epithelial cells

Tiivistelmä ReferatAbstract Metabolomics is a rapidly growing research field that studies the response of biological systems to environmental factors, disease states and genetic modifications. It aims at measuring the complete set of endogenous metabolites, i.e. the metabolome, in a biological sample such as plasma or cells. Because metabolites are the intermediates and end products of biochemical reactions, metabolite compositions and metabolite levels in biological samples can provide a wealth of information on on-going processes in a living system. Due to the complexity of the metabolome, metabolomic analysis poses a challenge to analytical chemistry. Adequate sample preparation is critical to accurate and reproducible analysis, and the analytical techniques must have high resolution and sensitivity to allow detection of as many metabolites as possible. Furthermore, as the information contained in the metabolome is immense, the data set collected from metabolomic studies is very large. In order to extract the relevant information from such large data sets, efficient data processing and multivariate data analysis methods are needed. In the research presented in this thesis, metabolomics was used to study mechanisms of polymeric gene delivery to retinal pigment epithelial (RPE) cells. The aim of the study was to detect differences in metabolomic fingerprints between transfected cells and non-transfected controls, and thereafter to identify metabolites responsible for the discrimination. The plasmid pCMV-β was introduced into RPE cells using the vector polyethyleneimine (PEI). The samples were analyzed using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and ultra performance liquid chromatography (UPLC) coupled to a triple quadrupole (QqQ) mass spectrometer (MS). The software MZmine was used for raw data processing and principal component analysis (PCA) was used in statistical data analysis. The results revealed differences in metabolomic fingerprints between transfected cells and non-transfected controls. However, reliable fingerprinting data could not be obtained because of low analysis repeatability. Therefore, no attempts were made to identify metabolites responsible for discrimination between sample groups. Repeatability and accuracy of analyses can be influenced by protocol optimization. However, in this study, optimization of analytical methods was hindered by the very small number of samples available for analysis. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that obtaining reliable fingerprinting data is technically demanding, and the protocols need to be thoroughly optimized in order to approach the goals of gaining information on mechanisms of gene delivery.

A participatory approach to tactical forest planning.

The paper examines the needs, premises and criteria for effective public participation in tactical forest planning. A method for participatory forest planning utilizing the techniques of preference analysis, professional expertise and heuristic optimization is introduced. The techniques do not cover the whole process of participatory planning, but are applied as a tool constituting the numerical core for decision support. The complexity of multi-resource management is addressed by hierarchical decision analysis which assesses the public values, preferences and decision criteria toward the planning situation. An optimal management plan is sought using heuristic optimization. The plan can further be improved through mutual negotiations, if necessary. The use of the approach is demonstrated with an illustrative example, it's merits and challenges for participatory forest planning and decision making are discussed and a model for applying it in general forest planning context is depicted. By using the approach, valuable information can be obtained about public preferences and the effects of taking them into consideration on the choice of the combination of standwise treatment proposals for a forest area. Participatory forest planning calculations, carried out by the approach presented in the paper, can be utilized in conflict management and in developing compromises between competing interests.

Kohdennetut nanopartikkelit ja isotooppikuvantaminen syövän hoidossa

Syövän diagnostiikassa ja hoidossa nanopartikkelit voivat toimia kuljetinaineina lääke- ja diagnostisille aineille tai nukleiinihappojaksoille. Kantaja-aineeseen voidaan liittää kohdennusmolekyylejä partikkelien passiivista tai aktiivista kohdennusta varten tai radioleima kuvantamista tai radioterapiaa varten. Kantaja-aineiden avulla voidaan parantaa lääkeaineen fysikaalis-kemiallisia ominaisuuksia ja biologista hyötyosuutta, vähentää systeemisiä sivuvaikutuksia, pidentää lääkeaineen puoliintumisaikaa ja siten harventaa annosteluväliä, sekä parantaa lääkeaineen pääsyä kohdekudokseen. Näin voidaan parantaa kemo- ja radioterapian tehoa ja hoidon onnistumisen todennäköisyyttä. Kirjallisuuskatsauksessa perehdytään nanokantajien rooliin syövän hoidossa. Vuosikymmeniä jatkuneesta tutkimuksesta huolimatta vain kaksi (Eurooppa) tai kolme (Yhdysvallat) nanopartikkeliformulaatiota on hyväksytty markkinoille syövän hoidossa. Ongelmina ovat riittämätön hakeutuminen kohdekudokseen, immunogeenisyys ja nanopartikkelien labiilius. Kokeellisessa osassa tutkitaan in vitro ja hiirillä in vivo 99mTc-leimattujen, PEG-verhoiltujen biotiiniliposomien kaksivaiheista kohdennusta ihmisen munasarjan adenokarsinoomasoluihin. Kohdentamiseen käytetään biotinyloitua setuksimabi-(Erbitux®) vasta-ainetta, joka sitoutuu solujen yli-ilmentämiin EGF-reseptoreihin. Kaksivaiheista kohdennusta verrataan suoraan ja/tai passiiviseen kohdennukseen. Tehokkaampien kuvantamismenetelmien kehitys on vauhdittanut kohdennettujen nanopartikkelien tutkimusta. Isotooppikuvantamista käyttäen pystytään seuraamaan radioleiman jakautumista elimistössä ja kuvantamaan solutasolla tapahtuvia ilmiöitä. Kirjallisuuskatsauksessa perehdytään SPECT- ja PET-kuvantamiseen syövän hoidossa, sekä niiden hyödyntämiseen lääkekehityksessä nanopartikkelien kuvantamisessa. Kyseiset kuvantamismenetelmät erottuvat muista menetelmistä korkean erotuskyvyn, herkkyyden ja helppokäyttöisyyden suhteen. Kokeellisessa osassa 99mTc-leimattujen liposomien distribuutiota hiirissä tutkittiin SPECT-CT-laitteen avulla. Aktiivisuus kasvaimessa, pernassa ja maksassa kvantifioitiin InVivoScope-ohjelman ja gammalaskijan avulla. Tuloksia verrattiin keskenään. In vitro-kokeessa saavutettiin kaksivaiheisella kohdennuksella 2,7- 3,5-kertainen (solulinjasta riippuen) hakeutuminen soluihin kontrolliliposomeihin verrattuna. Kuitenkin suora kohdennus toimi kaksivaiheista kohdennusta paremmin in vitro. In vivo –kokeissa liposomit jakautuivat kasvaimeen tehokkaammin i.p.-annosteltuna kuin i.v.-annosteltuna. Kaksivaiheisella kohdennuksella saavutettiin 1,24-kertainen jakautuminen kasvaimeen (% ID/g kudosta) passiivisesti kohdennettuihin liposomeihin verrattuna. %ID/elin oli kohdennetuilla liposomeilla 5,9 % ja passiivisesti kohdennetuilla 5,4%. Todellinen ero oli siis pieni. InVivoScope:n ja gammalaskijan tulokset eivät korreloineet keskenään. Lisätutkimuksia ja menetelmän optimointia vaaditaan liposomien kohdennuksessa kasvaimeen.