Language learning in infancy

Although immensely complex, speech is also a very efficient means of communication between humans. Understanding how we acquire the skills necessary for perceiving and producing speech remains an intriguing goal for research. However, while learning is likely to begin as soon as we start hearing speech, the tools for studying the language acquisition strategies in the earliest stages of development remain scarce. One prospective strategy is statistical learning. In order to investigate its role in language development, we designed a new research method. The method was tested in adults using magnetoencephalography (MEG) as a measure of cortical activity. Neonatal brain activity was measured with electroencephalography (EEG). Additionally, we developed a method for assessing the integration of seen and heard syllables in the developing brain as well as a method for assessing the role of visual speech when learning phoneme categories. The MEG study showed that adults learn statistical properties of speech during passive listening of syllables. The amplitude of the N400m component of the event-related magnetic fields (ERFs) reflected the location of syllables within pseudowords. The amplitude was also enhanced for syllables in a statistically unexpected position. The results suggest a role for the N400m component in statistical learning studies in adults. Using the same research design with sleeping newborn infants, the auditory event-related potentials (ERPs) measured with EEG reflected the location of syllables within pseudowords. The results were successfully replicated in another group of infants. The results show that even newborn infants have a powerful mechanism for automatic extraction of statistical characteristics from speech. We also found that 5-month-old infants integrate some auditory and visual syllables into a fused percept, whereas other syllable combinations are not fully integrated. Auditory syllables were paired with visual syllables possessing a different phonetic identity, and the ERPs for these artificial syllable combinations were compared with the ERPs for normal syllables. For congruent auditory-visual syllable combinations, the ERPs did not differ from those for normal syllables. However, for incongruent auditory-visual syllable combinations, we observed a mismatch response in the ERPs. The results show an early ability to perceive speech cross-modally. Finally, we exposed two groups of 6-month-old infants to artificially created auditory syllables located between two stereotypical English syllables in the formant space. The auditory syllables followed, equally for both groups, a unimodal statistical distribution, suggestive of a single phoneme category. The visual syllables combined with the auditory syllables, however, were different for the two groups, one group receiving visual stimuli suggestive of two separate phoneme categories, the other receiving visual stimuli suggestive of only one phoneme category. After a short exposure, we observed different learning outcomes for the two groups of infants. The results thus show that visual speech can influence learning of phoneme categories. Altogether, the results demonstrate that complex language learning skills exist from birth. They also suggest a role for the visual component of speech in the learning of phoneme categories.

Towards the Use of Radar Winds in Numerical Weather Prediction

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models provide the basis for weather forecasting by simulating the evolution of the atmospheric state. A good forecast requires that the initial state of the atmosphere is known accurately, and that the NWP model is a realistic representation of the atmosphere. Data assimilation methods are used to produce initial conditions for NWP models. The NWP model background field, typically a short-range forecast, is updated with observations in a statistically optimal way. The objective in this thesis has been to develope methods in order to allow data assimilation of Doppler radar radial wind observations. The work has been carried out in the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) 3-dimensional variational data assimilation framework. Observation modelling is a key element in exploiting indirect observations of the model variables. In the radar radial wind observation modelling, the vertical model wind profile is interpolated to the observation location, and the projection of the model wind vector on the radar pulse path is calculated. The vertical broadening of the radar pulse volume, and the bending of the radar pulse path due to atmospheric conditions are taken into account. Radar radial wind observations are modelled within observation errors which consist of instrumental, modelling, and representativeness errors. Systematic and random modelling errors can be minimized by accurate observation modelling. The impact of the random part of the instrumental and representativeness errors can be decreased by calculating spatial averages from the raw observations. Model experiments indicate that the spatial averaging clearly improves the fit of the radial wind observations to the model in terms of observation minus model background (OmB) standard deviation. Monitoring the quality of the observations is an important aspect, especially when a new observation type is introduced into a data assimilation system. Calculating the bias for radial wind observations in a conventional way can result in zero even in case there are systematic differences in the wind speed and/or direction. A bias estimation method designed for this observation type is introduced in the thesis. Doppler radar radial wind observation modelling, together with the bias estimation method, enables the exploitation of the radial wind observations also for NWP model validation. The one-month model experiments performed with the HIRLAM model versions differing only in a surface stress parameterization detail indicate that the use of radar wind observations in NWP model validation is very beneficial.

Observations of the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling

In this thesis, the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling is studied observationally, with the main focus on the ionospheric currents in the auroral region. The thesis consists of five research articles and an introductory part that summarises the most important results reached in the articles and places them in a wider context within the field of space physics. Ionospheric measurements are provided by the International Monitor for Auroral Geomagnetic Effects (IMAGE) magnetometer network, by the low-orbit CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) satellite, by the European Incoherent SCATter (EISCAT) radar, and by the Imager for Magnetopause-to-Aurora Global Exploration (IMAGE) satellite. Magnetospheric observations, on the other hand, are acquired from the four spacecraft of the Cluster mission, and solar wind observations from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) and Wind spacecraft. Within the framework of this study, a new method for determining the ionospheric currents from low-orbit satellite-based magnetic field data is developed. In contrast to previous techniques, all three current density components can be determined on a matching spatial scale, and the validity of the necessary one-dimensionality approximation, and thus, the quality of the results, can be estimated directly from the data. The new method is applied to derive an empirical model for estimating the Hall-to-Pedersen conductance ratio from ground-based magnetic field data, and to investigate the statistical dependence of the large-scale ionospheric currents on solar wind and geomagnetic parameters. Equations describing the amount of field-aligned current in the auroral region, as well as the location of the auroral electrojets, as a function of these parameters are derived. Moreover, the mesoscale (10-1000 km) ionospheric equivalent currents related to two magnetotail plasma sheet phenomena, bursty bulk flows and flux ropes, are studied. Based on the analysis of 22 events, the typical equivalent current pattern related to bursty bulk flows is established. For the flux ropes, on the other hand, only two conjugate events are found. As the equivalent current patterns during these two events are not similar, it is suggested that the ionospheric signatures of a flux rope depend on the orientation and the length of the structure, but analysis of additional events is required to determine the possible ionospheric connection of flux ropes.

Accuracy of absorbed dose in external photon beam radiotherapy : what level is sufficient and how to approach it?

Radiation therapy (RT) plays currently significant role in curative treatments of several cancers. External beam RT is carried out mostly by using megavoltage beams of linear accelerators. Tumor eradication and normal tissue complications correlate to dose absorbed in tissues. Normally this dependence is steep and it is crucial that actual dose within patient accurately correspond to the planned dose. All factors in a RT procedure contain uncertainties requiring strict quality assurance. From hospital physicist´s point of a view, technical quality control (QC), dose calculations and methods for verification of correct treatment location are the most important subjects. Most important factor in technical QC is the verification that radiation production of an accelerator, called output, is within narrow acceptable limits. The output measurements are carried out according to a locally chosen dosimetric QC program defining measurement time interval and action levels. Dose calculation algorithms need to be configured for the accelerators by using measured beam data. The uncertainty of such data sets limits for best achievable calculation accuracy. All these dosimetric measurements require good experience, are workful, take up resources needed for treatments and are prone to several random and systematic sources of errors. Appropriate verification of treatment location is more important in intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) than in conventional RT. This is due to steep dose gradients produced within or close to healthy tissues locating only a few millimetres from the targeted volume. The thesis was concentrated in investigation of the quality of dosimetric measurements, the efficacy of dosimetric QC programs, the verification of measured beam data and the effect of positional errors on the dose received by the major salivary glands in head and neck IMRT. A method was developed for the estimation of the effect of the use of different dosimetric QC programs on the overall uncertainty of dose. Data were provided to facilitate the choice of a sufficient QC program. The method takes into account local output stability and reproducibility of the dosimetric QC measurements. A method based on the model fitting of the results of the QC measurements was proposed for the estimation of both of these factors. The reduction of random measurement errors and optimization of QC procedure were also investigated. A method and suggestions were presented for these purposes. The accuracy of beam data was evaluated in Finnish RT centres. Sufficient accuracy level was estimated for the beam data. A method based on the use of reference beam data was developed for the QC of beam data. Dosimetric and geometric accuracy requirements were evaluated for head and neck IMRT when function of the major salivary glands is intended to be spared. These criteria are based on the dose response obtained for the glands. Random measurement errors could be reduced enabling lowering of action levels and prolongation of measurement time interval from 1 month to even 6 months simultaneously maintaining dose accuracy. The combined effect of the proposed methods, suggestions and criteria was found to facilitate the avoidance of maximal dose errors of up to even about 8 %. In addition, their use may make the strictest recommended overall dose accuracy level of 3 % (1SD) achievable.

Suomalaisten yritysten vapaaehtoinen sosiaalinen vastuu : Sidosryhmäviitekehys yritysten ja ulkoisten sidosryhmien edustajien näkemyksissä

Corporate social responsibility (CSR) is no longer only an issue of companies but a concern shared by e.g. the European Union, the International Labour Organization, labour market organizations and many others. This thesis examines what kind of voluntary corporate social responsibility exceeding the minimum level set in the legislation can be expected from the Finnish companies. The research was based on the interviews of some representatives of Finnish companies and of external stakeholders. Earlier Finnish empirical research on the topic has solely analysed the stakeholder thinking and the ethics of the views of the company representatives. The views of the external stakeholders brought ht up a much more versatile perspective on the voluntary corporate social responsibility of the companies. That is the particular surplus value of this research. This research, founded on stakeholder thinking, evaluated what kind of starting points and ideas on responsibility the views of the representatives of the companies and the external stakeholders were based on the voluntary social responsibility. Furthermore, the research also investigated how their views about the corporate social responsibility indicated the benefits achieved on the cooperative actions with different partners - for example companies, communities and public administration. To fulfil the aims of the research, the following questions were used as part tasks in mapping the basic foundations and starting points expressed by the representatives of the companies and the external stakeholders: 1) How do laws, directions concerning social responsibility of companies, and opinions and demands of the stakeholders guide and affect the voluntary corporate social responsibility? 2) How can companies assume voluntary corporate social responsibility in addition to their core functions and without compromising their profitability, and how does, for example, the tightening competition affect the possibility of taking responsibility? 3) What kind of ethic and moral foundations is the corporate social responsibility based on? 4) What kind of roles can companies have in securing and promoting the well-being of citizens in Finland and on the global market as one subsystem of the society? The views on the voluntary corporate social responsibility of nine big companies, one medium-sized company and one small company, all considered responsible pioneer companies, were studied with surveys and half-structured theme interviews between 2003 and 2004. The research proceeded as a theory-bounded study. The empirical material and the previous stakeholder thinking theories (Takala 2000b, Vehkaperä 2003) guided the thesis and worked abductively in interplay with each other during the research process. (Tuomi, Sarajärvi 2002.) The aims and the methods of the research and the themes of the interviews were defined on the basis of that information. The aims of the research were surveyed qualitatively with the strategy of a multiple case study. Representatives from nine big peer companies and nine external stakeholders were interviewed with half-structured themes between 2004 and 2005. The external stakeholders and the peer companies were chosen with the "thinking" of theoretical replication by Yin, according to which the views of the representatives of those groups would differ from those of the pioneer companies and also from those of each others. The multiple case study supports analysing the internal cohesion of the views of different groups and comparing their differences, and it supports theoretical evaluation and theory-building as well. (Yin 2003.) Another reason for choosing the external stakeholders was their known cooperation with companies. The spoken argumentations of the company and stakeholder representatives on the voluntary social responsibility of the companies were analysed and interpreted in the first place with an analytic discourse analysis, and the argumentations were classified allusively into the stakeholder discourses in three of the part tasks. In the discourse analysis, argumentations of the speech is seen to be intervowen with cultural meanings. (Jokinen, Juhila 1999.) The views of the representatives of the pioneer companies and the external stakeholders were more stakeholder-orientated than the views of the representatives of the peer companies. For the most part, the voluntary corporate social responsibility was seemingly targeted on single, small cooperation projects of the companies and external stakeholders. The pioneer companies had more of those projects, and they were participating in the projects more actively than the peer companies were. The significant result in this research was the notion that, in particular, the representatives of the pioneer companies and external stakeholders did not consider employing and paying taxes to be enough of reciprocal corporate social responsibility. However, they still wanted to preserve the Finnish welfare model, and the interviewees did not wish major changes in the present legislation or the social agreements. According to this study, the voluntary corporate social responsibility is motivated by ethical utilitarianism which varied from very narrow to very wide in relation to benefits achieved by companies and stakeholders (Velasquez 2002, Lagerspetz 2004). Compared with the peer companies, more of the representatives of the pioneer companies and of external stakeholders estimated that companies in their decision-making and operations considered not only the advantages and the benefits of the owners and other internal stakeholders, but also those of the external stakeholders and of the whole society. However, all interviewees expressed more or less strongly that the economic responsibility guides the voluntary responsible actions of the companies in the first place. This kind of utilitarian foundation of behaviour appeared from this research was named as business-orientated company moral. This thesis also presents a new voluntary corporate social responsibility model with four variables on the stakeholder discourses and their distinctive characteristics. The utilitarian motivation of a company s behaviour on their operations has been criticized on the grounds that the end justifies the means. It has also been stated that it is impossible to evaluate the benefits of the utilitarian type of actions to the individuals and the society. It is expected however that companies for their part promote the material and immaterial well-being of the individuals on the global, national and local markets. The expectations are so strong that if companies do not take into account the ethical and moral values, they can possibly suffer significant financial losses. All stakeholders, especially consumers, can with their own choices promote the responsible behaviour of the companies. Key words: voluntary corporate social responsibility, external stakeholders, corporate citizenship, ethics and morality, utilitarianism, stakeholder discourses, welfare society, globalisation

Morphogenesis of Mammalian Endoplasmic Reticulum and Golgi Apparatus throughout the Cell Cycle

The endoplasmic reticulum (ER) and the Golgi apparatus are organelles that produce, modify and transport proteins and lipids and regulate Ca2+ environment within cells. Structurally they are composed of sheets and tubules. Sheets may take various forms: intact, fenestrated, single or stacked. The ER, including the nuclear envelope, is a single continuous network, while the Golgi shows only some level of connectivity. It is often unclear, how different morphologies correspond to particular functions. Previous studies indicate that the structures of the ER and Golgi are dynamic and regulated by fusion and fission events, cytoskeleton, rate of protein synthesis and secretion, and specific structural proteins. For example, many structural proteins shaping tubular ER have been identified, but sheet formation is much more unclear. In this study, we used light and electron microscopy to study morphological changes of the ER and Golgi in mammalian cells. The proportion, type, location and dynamics of ER sheets and tubules were found to vary in a cell type or cell cycle stage dependent manner. During interphase, ER and Golgi structures were demonstrated to be regulated by p37, a cofactor of the fusion factor p97, and microtubules, which also affected the localization of the organelles. Like previously shown for the Golgi, the ER displayed a tendency for fenestration and tubulation during mitosis. However, this shape change did not result in ER fragmentation as happens to Golgi, but a continuous network was retained. The activity of p97/p37 was found to be important for the reassembly of both organelles after mitosis. In EM images, ER sheet membranes appear rough, since they contain attached ribosomes, whereas tubular membranes appear smooth. Our studies revealed that structural changes of the ER towards fenestrated and tubular direction correlate with loss of ER-bound ribosomes and vice versa. High and low curvature ER membranes have a low and high density of ribosomes, respectively. To conclude, both ER and Golgi architecture depend on fusion activity of p97/p37. ER morphogenesis, particularly of the sheet shape, is intimately linked to the density of membrane bound ribosomes.

Measurement of the Single Top Quark Production Cross Section at CDF

We report a measurement of the single top quark production cross section in 2.2 ~fb-1 of p-pbar collision data collected by the Collider Detector at Fermilab at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV. Candidate events are classified as signal-like by three parallel analyses which use likelihood, matrix element, and neural network discriminants. These results are combined in order to improve the sensitivity. We observe a signal consistent with the standard model prediction, but inconsistent with the background-only model by 3.7 standard deviations with a median expected sensitivity of 4.9 standard deviations. We measure a cross section of 2.2 +0.7 -0.6(stat+sys) pb, extract the CKM matrix element value |V_{tb}|=0.88 +0.13 -0.12 (stat+sys) +- 0.07(theory), and set the limit |V_{tb}|>0.66 at the 95% C.L.

Measurement of the Single-Top-Quark Production Cross Section at CDF

We report a measurement of the single top quark production cross section in 2.2 ~fb-1 of p-pbar collision data collected by the Collider Detector at Fermilab at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV. Candidate events are classified as signal-like by three parallel analyses which use likelihood, matrix element, and neural network discriminants. These results are combined in order to improve the sensitivity. We observe a signal consistent with the standard model prediction, but inconsistent with the background-only model by 3.7 standard deviations with a median expected sensitivity of 4.9 standard deviations. We measure a cross section of 2.2 +0.7 -0.6(stat+sys) pb, extract the CKM matrix element value |V_{tb}|=0.88 +0.13 -0.12 (stat+sys) +- 0.07(theory), and set the limit |V_{tb}|>0.66 at the 95% C.L.

Essays on Earnings Management (summary section only)

There is much literature developing theories when and where earnings management occurs. Among the several possible motives driving earnings management behaviour in firms, this thesis focuses on motives that aim to influence the valuation of the firm. Earnings management that makes the firm look better than it really is may result in disappointment for the single investor and potentially leads to a welfare loss in society when the resource allocation is distorted. A more specific knowledge of the occurrence of earnings management supposedly increases the awareness of the investor and thus leads to better investments and increased welfare. This thesis contributes to the literature by increasing the knowledge as to where and when earnings management is likely to occur. More specifically, essay 1 adds to existing research connecting earnings management to IPOs and increases the knowledge in arguing that the tendency to manage earnings differs between the IPOs. Evidence is found that entrepreneur owned IPOs are more likely to be earnings managers than the institutionally owned ones. Essay 2 considers the reliability of quarterly earnings reports that precedes insider selling binges. The essay contributes by suggesting that earnings management is likely to occur before high insider selling. Essay 3 examines the widely studied phenomenon of income smoothing and investigates if income smoothing can be explained with proxies for information asymmetry. The essay argues that smoothing is more pervasive in private and smaller firms.

A Cointegration Approach to Topics in Empirical Macroeconomics (summary section only)

Mikael Juselius’ doctoral dissertation covers a range of significant issues in modern macroeconomics by empirically testing a number of important theoretical hypotheses. The first essay presents indirect evidence within the framework of the cointegrated VAR model on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor by using Finnish manufacturing data. Instead of estimating the elasticity of substitution by using the first order conditions, he develops a new approach that utilizes a CES production function in a model with a 3-stage decision process: investment in the long run, wage bargaining in the medium run and price and employment decisions in the short run. He estimates the elasticity of substitution to be below one. The second essay tests the restrictions implied by the core equations of the New Keynesian Model (NKM) in a vector autoregressive model (VAR) by using both Euro area and U.S. data. Both the new Keynesian Phillips curve and the aggregate demand curve are estimated and tested. The restrictions implied by the core equations of the NKM are rejected on both U.S. and Euro area data. These results are important for further research. The third essay is methodologically similar to essay 2, but it concentrates on Finnish macro data by adopting a theoretical framework of an open economy. Juselius’ results suggests that the open economy NKM framework is too stylized to provide an adequate explanation for Finnish inflation. The final essay provides a macroeconometric model of Finnish inflation and associated explanatory variables and it estimates the relative importance of different inflation theories. His main finding is that Finnish inflation is primarily determined by excess demand in the product market and by changes in the long-term interest rate. This study is part of the research agenda carried out by the Research Unit of Economic Structure and Growth (RUESG). The aim of RUESG it to conduct theoretical and empirical research with respect to important issues in industrial economics, real option theory, game theory, organization theory, theory of financial systems as well as to study problems in labor markets, macroeconomics, natural resources, taxation and time series econometrics. RUESG was established at the beginning of 1995 and is one of the National Centers of Excellence in research selected by the Academy of Finland. It is financed jointly by the Academy of Finland, the University of Helsinki, the Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation, Bank of Finland and the Nokia Group. This support is gratefully acknowledged.

Empirical Studies on Labor Market Matching (summary section only)

This thesis analyzes how matching takes place at the Finnish labor market from three different angles. The Finnish labor market has undergone severe structural changes following the economic crisis in the early 1990s. The labor market has had problems adjusting from these changes and hence a high and persistent unemployment has followed. In this thesis I analyze if matching problems, and in particular if changes in matching, can explain some of this persistence. The thesis consists of three essays. In the first essay Finnish Evidence of Changes in the Labor Market Matching Process the matching process at the Finnish labor market is analyzed. The key finding is that the matching process has changed thoroughly between the booming 1980s and the post-crisis period. The importance of the number of unemployed, and in particular long-term unemployed, for the matching process has vanished. More unemployed do not increase matching as theory predicts but rather the opposite. In the second essay, The Aggregate Matching Function and Directed Search -Finnish Evidence, stock-flow matching as a potential micro foundation of the aggregate matching function is studied. In the essay I show that newly unemployed match mainly with the stock of vacancies while longer term unemployed match with the inflow of vacancies. When aggregating I still find evidence of the traditional aggregate matching function. This could explain the huge support the aggregate matching function has received despite its odd randomness assumption. The third essay, How do Registered Job Seekers really match? -Finnish occupational level Evidence, studies matching for nine occupational groups and finds that very different matching problems exist for different occupations. In this essay also misspecification stemming from non-corresponding variables is dealt with through the introduction of a completely new set of variables. The new outflow measure used is vacancies filled with registered job seekers and it is matched by the supply side measure registered job seekers.

Essays on the Modeling and Prediction of Volatility and Higher Moments of Stock Returns (summary section only)

One of the most fundamental and widely accepted ideas in finance is that investors are compensated through higher returns for taking on non-diversifiable risk. Hence the quantification, modeling and prediction of risk have been, and still are one of the most prolific research areas in financial economics. It was recognized early on that there are predictable patterns in the variance of speculative prices. Later research has shown that there may also be systematic variation in the skewness and kurtosis of financial returns. Lacking in the literature so far, is an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the potential benefits of these new more complicated models with time-varying higher moments. Such an evaluation is the topic of this dissertation. Essay 1 investigates the forecast performance of the GARCH (1,1) model when estimated with 9 different error distributions on Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Future returns. By utilizing the theory of realized variance to construct an appropriate ex post measure of variance from intra-day data it is shown that allowing for a leptokurtic error distribution leads to significant improvements in variance forecasts compared to using the normal distribution. This result holds for daily, weekly as well as monthly forecast horizons. It is also found that allowing for skewness and time variation in the higher moments of the distribution does not further improve forecasts. In Essay 2, by using 20 years of daily Standard and Poor 500 index returns, it is found that density forecasts are much improved by allowing for constant excess kurtosis but not improved by allowing for skewness. By allowing the kurtosis and skewness to be time varying the density forecasts are not further improved but on the contrary made slightly worse. In Essay 3 a new model incorporating conditional variance, skewness and kurtosis based on the Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution is proposed. The new model and two previously used NIG models are evaluated by their Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts on a long series of daily Standard and Poor’s 500 returns. The results show that only the new model produces satisfactory VaR forecasts for both 1% and 5% VaR Taken together the results of the thesis show that kurtosis appears not to exhibit predictable time variation, whereas there is found some predictability in the skewness. However, the dynamic properties of the skewness are not completely captured by any of the models.

Modelling and Forecasting Property Rents and Returns (summary section only)

Recently, focus of real estate investment has expanded from the building-specific level to the aggregate portfolio level. The portfolio perspective requires investment analysis for real estate which is comparable with that of other asset classes, such as stocks and bonds. Thus, despite its distinctive features, such as heterogeneity, high unit value, illiquidity and the use of valuations to measure performance, real estate should not be considered in isolation. This means that techniques which are widely used for other assets classes can also be applied to real estate. An important part of investment strategies which support decisions on multi-asset portfolios is identifying the fundamentals of movements in property rents and returns, and predicting them on the basis of these fundamentals. The main objective of this thesis is to find the key drivers and the best methods for modelling and forecasting property rents and returns in markets which have experienced structural changes. The Finnish property market, which is a small European market with structural changes and limited property data, is used as a case study. The findings in the thesis show that is it possible to use modern econometric tools for modelling and forecasting property markets. The thesis consists of an introduction part and four essays. Essays 1 and 3 model Helsinki office rents and returns, and assess the suitability of alternative techniques for forecasting these series. Simple time series techniques are able to account for structural changes in the way markets operate, and thus provide the best forecasting tool. Theory-based econometric models, in particular error correction models, which are constrained by long-run information, are better for explaining past movements in rents and returns than for predicting their future movements. Essay 2 proceeds by examining the key drivers of rent movements for several property types in a number of Finnish property markets. The essay shows that commercial rents in local markets can be modelled using national macroeconomic variables and a panel approach. Finally, Essay 4 investigates whether forecasting models can be improved by accounting for asymmetric responses of office returns to the business cycle. The essay finds that the forecast performance of time series models can be improved by introducing asymmetries, and the improvement is sufficient to justify the extra computational time and effort associated with the application of these techniques.

Essays on the Role of Time in Price Discovery (summary section only)

The purpose of this thesis is to examine the role of trade durations in price discovery. The motivation to use trade durations in the study of price discovery is that durations are robust to many microstructure effects that introduce a bias in the measurement of returns volatility. Another motivation to use trade durations in the study of price discovery is that it is difficult to think of economic variables, which really are useful in the determination of the source of volatility at arbitrarily high frequencies. The dissertation contains three essays. In the first essay, the role of trade durations in price discovery is examined with respect to the volatility pattern of stock returns. The theory on volatility is associated with the theory on the information content of trade, dear to the market microstructure theory. The first essay documents that the volatility per transaction is related to the intensity of trade, and a strong relationship between the stochastic process of trade durations and trading variables. In the second essay, the role of trade durations in price discovery is examined with respect to the quantification of risk due to a trading volume of a certain size. The theory on volume is intrinsically associated with the stock volatility pattern. The essay documents that volatility increases, in general, when traders choose to trade with large transactions. In the third essay, the role of trade durations in price discovery is examined with respect to the information content of a trade. The theory on the information content of a trade is associated with the theory on the rate of price revisions in the market. The essay documents that short durations are associated with information. Thus, traders are compensated for responding quickly to information

Essays on the Costs and Benefits of Large Shareholders in Corporate Governance (summary section only)

“Corporate governance deals with the ways in which suppliers of finance to firms assure themselves of getting a return on their investment” (Shleifer and Vishny (1997, p. 737). According to La Porta et al. (1999), research in corporate finance relevant for most countries should focus on the incentives and capabilities of controlling shareholders to treat themselves preferentially at the expense of minority shareholders. Accordingly, this thesis sets out to answer a number of research questions regarding the role of large shareholders in public firms that have received little attention in the literature so far. A common theme in the essays stems from the costs and benefits of individual large-block owners and the role of control contestability from the perspective of outside minority shareholders. The first essay empirically examines whether there are systematic performance differences between family controlled and nonfamily controlled firms in Western Europe. In contrast to the widely held view that family control penalizes firm value, the essay shows that publicly traded family firms have higher performance than comparable firms. In the second essay, we present both theoretical and empirical analysis on the effects of control contestability on firm valuation. Consistent with the theoretical model, the empirical results show that minority shareholders benefit from a more contestable control structure. The third essay explores the effects of individual large-block owners on top management turnover and board appointments in Finnish listed firms. The results indicate that firm performance is an important determinant for management and board restructurings. For certain types of turnover decisions the corporate governance structure influences the performance / turnover sensitivity. In the fourth essay, we investigate the relation between the governance structure and dividend policy in Finnish listed firms. We find evidence in support of the outcome agency model of dividends stating that lower agency conflicts should be associated with higher dividend payouts.