Monetary policy rules and estimated reaction functions for the European Central Bank

This thesis studies the interest-rate policy of the ECB by estimating monetary policy rules using real-time data and central bank forecasts. The aim of the estimations is to try to characterize a decade of common monetary policy and to look at how different models perform at this task.The estimated rules include: contemporary Taylor rules, forward-looking Taylor rules, nonlinearrules and forecast-based rules. The nonlinear models allow for the possibility of zone-like preferences and an asymmetric response to key variables. The models therefore encompass the most popular sub-group of simple models used for policy analysis as well as the more unusual non-linear approach. In addition to the empirical work, this thesis also contains a more general discussion of monetary policy rules mostly from a New Keynesian perspective. This discussion includes an overview of some notable related studies, optimal policy, policy gradualism and several other related subjects. The regression estimations are performed with either least squares or the generalized method of moments depending on the requirements of the estimations. The estimations use data from both the Euro Area Real-Time Database and the central bank forecasts published in ECB Monthly Bulletins. These data sources represent some of the best data that is available for this kind of analysis. The main results of this thesis are that forward-looking behavior appears highly prevalent, but that standard forward-looking Taylor rules offer only ambivalent results with regard to inflation. Nonlinear models are shown to work, but on the other hand do not have a strong rationale over a simpler linear formulation. However, the forecasts appear to be highly useful in characterizing policy and may offer the most accurate depiction of a predominantly forward-looking central bank. In particular the inflation response appears much stronger while the output response becomes highly forward-looking as well.

Computer simulation of multi-elemental fusion reactor materials

Thermonuclear fusion is a sustainable energy solution, in which energy is produced using similar processes as in the sun. In this technology hydrogen isotopes are fused to gain energy and consequently to produce electricity. In a fusion reactor hydrogen isotopes are confined by magnetic fields as ionized gas, the plasma. Since the core plasma is millions of degrees hot, there are special needs for the plasma-facing materials. Moreover, in the plasma the fusion of hydrogen isotopes leads to the production of high energetic neutrons which sets demanding abilities for the structural materials of the reactor. This thesis investigates the irradiation response of materials to be used in future fusion reactors. Interactions of the plasma with the reactor wall leads to the removal of surface atoms, migration of them, and formation of co-deposited layers such as tungsten carbide. Sputtering of tungsten carbide and deuterium trapping in tungsten carbide was investigated in this thesis. As the second topic the primary interaction of the neutrons in the structural material steel was examined. As model materials for steel iron chromium and iron nickel were used. This study was performed theoretically by the means of computer simulations on the atomic level. In contrast to previous studies in the field, in which simulations were limited to pure elements, in this work more complex materials were used, i.e. they were multi-elemental including two or more atom species. The results of this thesis are in the microscale. One of the results is a catalogue of atom species, which were removed from tungsten carbide by the plasma. Another result is e.g. the atomic distributions of defects in iron chromium caused by the energetic neutrons. These microscopic results are used in data bases for multiscale modelling of fusion reactor materials, which has the aim to explain the macroscopic degradation in the materials. This thesis is therefore a relevant contribution to investigate the connection of microscopic and macroscopic radiation effects, which is one objective in fusion reactor materials research.