Forest inventory-based large-scale forest biomass and carbon budget assessment: new enhanced methods and use of remote sensing for verification

In recent years, concern has arisen over the effects of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) in the earth's atmosphere due to the burning of fossil fuels. One way to mitigate increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change is carbon sequestration to forest vegeta-tion through photosynthesis. Comparable regional scale estimates for the carbon balance of forests are therefore needed for scientific and political purposes. The aim of the present dissertation was to improve methods for quantifying and verifying inventory-based carbon pool estimates of the boreal forests in the mineral soils. Ongoing forest inventories provide a data based on statistically sounded sampling for estimating the level of carbon stocks and stock changes, but improved modelling tools and comparison of methods are still needed. In this dissertation, the entire inventory-based large-scale forest carbon stock assessment method was presented together with some separate methods for enhancing and comparing it. The enhancement methods presented here include ways to quantify the biomass of understorey vegetation as well as to estimate the litter production of needles and branches. In addition, the optical remote sensing method illustrated in this dis-sertation can be used to compare with independent data. The forest inventory-based large-scale carbon stock assessment method demonstrated here provided reliable carbon estimates when compared with independent data. Future ac-tivity to improve the accuracy of this method could consist of reducing the uncertainties regarding belowground biomass and litter production as well as the soil compartment. The methods developed will serve the needs for UNFCCC reporting and the reporting under the Kyoto Protocol. This method is principally intended for analysts or planners interested in quantifying carbon over extensive forest areas.

Bayesian fisheries stock assessment: integrating and updating knowledge

In this thesis the use of the Bayesian approach to statistical inference in fisheries stock assessment is studied. The work was conducted in collaboration of the Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute by using the problem of monitoring and prediction of the juvenile salmon population in the River Tornionjoki as an example application. The River Tornionjoki is the largest salmon river flowing into the Baltic Sea. This thesis tackles the issues of model formulation and model checking as well as computational problems related to Bayesian modelling in the context of fisheries stock assessment. Each article of the thesis provides a novel method either for extracting information from data obtained via a particular type of sampling system or for integrating the information about the fish stock from multiple sources in terms of a population dynamics model. Mark-recapture and removal sampling schemes and a random catch sampling method are covered for the estimation of the population size. In addition, a method for estimating the stock composition of a salmon catch based on DNA samples is also presented. For most of the articles, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation has been used as a tool to approximate the posterior distribution. Problems arising from the sampling method are also briefly discussed and potential solutions for these problems are proposed. Special emphasis in the discussion is given to the philosophical foundation of the Bayesian approach in the context of fisheries stock assessment. It is argued that the role of subjective prior knowledge needed in practically all parts of a Bayesian model should be recognized and consequently fully utilised in the process of model formulation.

Gene flow from transgenic plant populations: models and applications for risk assessment

The future use of genetically modified (GM) plants in food, feed and biomass production requires a careful consideration of possible risks related to the unintended spread of trangenes into new habitats. This may occur via introgression of the transgene to conventional genotypes, due to cross-pollination, and via the invasion of GM plants to new habitats. Assessment of possible environmental impacts of GM plants requires estimation of the level of gene flow from a GM population. Furthermore, management measures for reducing gene flow from GM populations are needed in order to prevent possible unwanted effects of transgenes on ecosystems. This work develops modeling tools for estimating gene flow from GM plant populations in boreal environments and for investigating the mechanisms of the gene flow process. To describe spatial dimensions of the gene flow, dispersal models are developed for the local and regional scale spread of pollen grains and seeds, with special emphasis on wind dispersal. This study provides tools for describing cross-pollination between GM and conventional populations and for estimating the levels of transgenic contamination of the conventional crops. For perennial populations, a modeling framework describing the dynamics of plants and genotypes is developed, in order to estimate the gene flow process over a sequence of years. The dispersal of airborne pollen and seeds cannot be easily controlled, and small amounts of these particles are likely to disperse over long distances. Wind dispersal processes are highly stochastic due to variation in atmospheric conditions, so that there may be considerable variation between individual dispersal patterns. This, in turn, is reflected to the large amount of variation in annual levels of cross-pollination between GM and conventional populations. Even though land-use practices have effects on the average levels of cross-pollination between GM and conventional fields, the level of transgenic contamination of a conventional crop remains highly stochastic. The demographic effects of a transgene have impacts on the establishment of trangenic plants amongst conventional genotypes of the same species. If the transgene gives a plant a considerable fitness advantage in comparison to conventional genotypes, the spread of transgenes to conventional population can be strongly increased. In such cases, dominance of the transgene considerably increases gene flow from GM to conventional populations, due to the enhanced fitness of heterozygous hybrids. The fitness of GM plants in conventional populations can be reduced by linking the selectively favoured primary transgene to a disfavoured mitigation transgene. Recombination between these transgenes is a major risk related to this technique, especially because it tends to take place amongst the conventional genotypes and thus promotes the establishment of invasive transgenic plants in conventional populations.

Modeling Efficient Classification as a Process of Confidence Assessment and Delegation

In visual object detection and recognition, classifiers have two interesting characteristics: accuracy and speed. Accuracy depends on the complexity of the image features and classifier decision surfaces. Speed depends on the hardware and the computational effort required to use the features and decision surfaces. When attempts to increase accuracy lead to increases in complexity and effort, it is necessary to ask how much are we willing to pay for increased accuracy. For example, if increased computational effort implies quickly diminishing returns in accuracy, then those designing inexpensive surveillance applications cannot aim for maximum accuracy at any cost. It becomes necessary to find trade-offs between accuracy and effort. We study efficient classification of images depicting real-world objects and scenes. Classification is efficient when a classifier can be controlled so that the desired trade-off between accuracy and effort (speed) is achieved and unnecessary computations are avoided on a per input basis. A framework is proposed for understanding and modeling efficient classification of images. Classification is modeled as a tree-like process. In designing the framework, it is important to recognize what is essential and to avoid structures that are narrow in applicability. Earlier frameworks are lacking in this regard. The overall contribution is two-fold. First, the framework is presented, subjected to experiments, and shown to be satisfactory. Second, certain unconventional approaches are experimented with. This allows the separation of the essential from the conventional. To determine if the framework is satisfactory, three categories of questions are identified: trade-off optimization, classifier tree organization, and rules for delegation and confidence modeling. Questions and problems related to each category are addressed and empirical results are presented. For example, related to trade-off optimization, we address the problem of computational bottlenecks that limit the range of trade-offs. We also ask if accuracy versus effort trade-offs can be controlled after training. For another example, regarding classifier tree organization, we first consider the task of organizing a tree in a problem-specific manner. We then ask if problem-specific organization is necessary.

Evaluation of regional and distant metastases in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma patients with special reference to the assessment of regional lymph nodes in oral cancer

For optimal treatment planning, a thorough assessment of the metastatic status of mucosal squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (HNSCC) is required. Current imaging methods do not allow the recognition of all patients with metastatic disease. Therefore, elective treatment of the cervical lymph nodes is usually given to patients in whom the risk of subclinical metastasis is estimated to exceed 15-20%. The objective of this study was to improve the pre-treatment evaluation of patients diagnosed with HNSCC. Particularly, we aimed at improving the identification of patients who will benefit from elective neck treatment. Computed tomography (CT) of the chest and abdomen was performed prospectively for 100 patients diagnosed with HNSCC. The findings were analysed to clarify the indications for this examination in this patient group. CT of the chest influenced the treatment approach in 3% of patients, while CT of the abdomen did not reveal any significant findings. Our results suggest that CT of the chest and abdomen is not indicated routinely for patients with newly diagnosed HNSCC but can be considered in selected cases. Retrospective analysis of 80 patients treated for early stage squamous cell carcinoma of the oral tongue was performed to investigate the potential benefits of elective neck treatment and to examine whether histopathological features of the primary tumour could be used in the prediction of occult metastases, local recurrence, or/and poor survival. Patients who had received elective neck treatment had significantly fewer cervical recurrences during the follow-up when compared to those who only had close observation of the cervical lymph nodes. Elective neck treatment did not result in survival benefit, however. Of the histopathological parameters examined, depth of infiltration and pT-category (representing tumour diameter) predicted occult cervical metastasis, but only the pT-category predicted local recurrence. Depth of infiltration can be used in the identification of at risk patients but no clear cut-off value separating high-risk and low-risk patients was found. None of the histopathological parameters examined predicted survival. Sentinel lymph node (SLN) biopsy was studied as a means of diagnosing patients with subclinical cervical metastases. SLN biopsy was applied to 46 patients who underwent elective neck dissection for oral squamous cell carcinoma. In addition, SLN biopsy was applied to 13 patients with small oral cavity tumours who were not intended to undergo elective neck dissection because of low risk of occult metastasis. The sensitivity of SLN biopsy for finding subclinical cervical metastases was found to be 67%, when SLN status was compared to the metastatic status of the rest of the neck dissection specimen. Of the patients not planned to have elective neck dissection, SLN biopsy revealed cervical metastasis in 15% of the patients. Our results suggest that SLN biopsy can not yet entirely replace elective neck dissection in the treatment of oral cancer, but it seems beneficial for patients with low risk of metastasis who are not intended for elective neck treatment according to current treatment protocols.

Assessment of neuroleptic-induced movement disorders in a naturalistic schizophrenia population

The prevalence and assessment of neuroleptic-induced movement disorders (NIMDs) in a naturalistic schizophrenia population that uses conventional neuroleptics were studied. We recruited 99 chronic schizophrenic institutionalized adult patients from a state nursing home in central Estonia. The total prevalence of NIMDs according to the diagnostic criteria of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition (DSM-IV) was 61.6%, and 22.2% had more than one NIMD. We explored the reliability and validity of different instruments for measuring these disorders. First, we compared DSM-IV with the established observer rating scales of Barnes Akathisia Rating Scale (BARS), Simpson-Angus Scale (SAS) (for neuroleptic-induced parkinsonism, NIP) and Abnormal Involuntary Movement Scale (AIMS) (for tardive dyskinesia), all three of which have been used for diagnosing NIMD. We found a good overlap of cases for neuroleptic-induced akathisia (NIA) and tardive dyskinesia (TD) but somewhat poorer overlap for NIP, for which we suggest raising the commonly used threshold value of 0.3 to 0.65. Second, we compared the established observer rating scales with an objective motor measurement, namely controlled rest lower limb activity measured by actometry. Actometry supported the validity of BARS and SAS, but it could not be used alone in this naturalistic population with several co-existing NIMDs. It could not differentiate the disorders from each other. Quantitative actometry may be useful in measuring changes in NIA and NIP severity, in situations where the diagnosis has been made using another method. Third, after the relative failure of quantitative actometry to show diagnostic power in a naturalistic population, we explored descriptive ways of analysing actometric data, and demonstrated diagnostic power pooled NIA and pseudoakathisia (PsA) in our population. A subjective question concerning movement problems was able to discriminate NIA patients from all other subjects. Answers to this question were not selective for other NIMDs. Chronic schizophrenia populations are common worldwide, NIMD affected two-thirds of our study population. Prevention, diagnosis and treatment of NIMDs warrant more attention, especially in countries where typical antipsychotics are frequently used. Our study supported the validity and reliability of DSM-IV diagnostic criteria for NIMD in comparison with established rating scales and actometry. SAS can be used with minor modifications for screening purposes. Controlled rest lower limb actometry was not diagnostically specific in our naturalistic population with several co-morbid NIMDs, but it may be sensitive in measuring changes in NIMDs.