Observations on the first steps of atmospheric particle formation and growth

Atmospheric aerosol particles have a significant impact on air quality, human health and global climate. The climatic effects of secondary aerosol are currently among the largest uncertainties limiting the scientific understanding of future and past climate changes. To better estimate the climatic importance of secondary aerosol particles, detailed information on atmospheric particle formation mechanisms and the vapours forming the aerosol is required. In this thesis we studied these issues by applying novel instrumentation in a boreal forest to obtain direct information on the very first steps of atmospheric nucleation and particle growth. Additionally, we used detailed laboratory experiments and process modelling to determine condensational growth properties, such as saturation vapour pressures, of dicarboxylic acids, which are organic acids often found in atmospheric samples. Based on our studies, we came to four main conclusions: 1) In the boreal forest region, both sulphurous compounds and organics are needed for secondary particle formation, the previous contributing mainly to particle formation and latter to growth; 2) A persistent pool of molecular clusters, both neutral and charged, is present and participates in atmospheric nucleation processes in boreal forests; 3) Neutral particle formation seems to dominate over ion-mediated mechanisms, at least in the boreal forest boundary layer; 4) The subcooled liquid phase saturation vapour pressures of C3-C9 dicarboxylic acids are of the order of 1e-5 1e-3 Pa at atmospheric temperatures, indicating that a mixed pre-existing particulate phase is required for their condensation in atmospheric conditions. The work presented in this thesis gives tools to better quantify the aerosol source provided by secondary aerosol formation. The results are particularly useful when estimating, for instance, anthropogenic versus biogenic influences and the fractions of secondary aerosol formation explained by neutral or ion-mediated nucleation mechanisms, at least in environments where the average particle formation rates are of the order of some tens of particles per cubic centimeter or lower. However, as the factors driving secondary particle formation are likely to vary depending on the environment, measurements on atmospheric nucleation and particle growth are needed from around the world to be able to better describe the secondary particle formation, and assess its climatic effects on a global scale.

Observations of production and transport of NOx formed by energetic particle precipitation in the polar night atmosphere

This work is focused on the effects of energetic particle precipitation of solar or magnetospheric origin on the polar middle atmosphere. The energetic charged particles have access to the atmosphere in the polar areas, where they are guided by the Earth's magnetic field. The particles penetrate down to 20-100 km altitudes (stratosphere and mesosphere) ionising the ambient air. This ionisation leads to production of odd nitrogen (NOx) and odd hydrogen species, which take part in catalytic ozone destruction. NOx has a very long chemical lifetime during polar night conditions. Therefore NOx produced at high altitudes during polar night can be transported to lower stratospheric altitudes. Particular emphasis in this work is in the use of both space and ground based observations: ozone and NO2 measurements from the GOMOS instrument on board the European Space Agency's Envisat-satellite are used together with subionospheric VLF radio wave observations from ground stations. Combining the two observation techniques enabled detection of NOx enhancements throughout the middle atmosphere, including tracking the descent of NOx enhancements of high altitude origin down to the stratosphere. GOMOS observations of the large Solar Proton Events of October-November 2003 showed the progression of the SPE initiated NOx enhancements through the polar winter. In the upper stratosphere, nighttime NO2 increased by an order of magnitude, and the effect was observed to last for several weeks after the SPEs. Ozone decreases up to 60 % from the pre-SPE values were observed in the upper stratosphere nearly a month after the events. Over several weeks the GOMOS observations showed the gradual descent of the NOx enhancements to lower altitudes. Measurements from years 2002-2006 were used to study polar winter NOx increases and their connection to energetic particle precipitation. NOx enhancements were found to occur in a good correlation with both increased high-energy particle precipitation and increased geomagnetic activity. The average wintertime polar NOx was found to have a nearly linear relationship with the average wintertime geomagnetic activity. The results from this thesis work show how important energetic particle precipitation from outside the atmosphere is as a source of NOx in the middle atmosphere, and thus its importance to the chemical balance of the atmosphere.

Impact of cosmic inhomogeneities on SNe observations

We study the impact of cosmic inhomogeneities on the interpretation of SNe observations. We build an inhomogeneous universe model that can confront supernova data and yet is reasonably well compatible with the Copernican Principle. Our model combines a relatively small local void, that gives apparent acceleration at low redshifts, with a meatball model that gives sizeable lensing (dimming) at high redshifts. Together these two elements, which focus on different effects of voids on the data, allow the model to mimic the concordance model.

Simulating and Forecasting the Demand for New Consumer Durables

A diffusion/replacement model for new consumer durables designed to be used as a long-term forecasting tool is developed. The model simulates new demand as well as replacement demand over time. The model is called DEMSIM and is built upon a counteractive adoption model specifying the basic forces affecting the adoption behaviour of individual consumers. These forces are the promoting forces and the resisting forces. The promoting forces are further divided into internal and external influences. These influences are operationalized within a multi-segmental diffusion model generating the adoption behaviour of the consumers in each segment as an expected value. This diffusion model is combined with a replacement model built upon the same segmental structure as the diffusion model. This model generates, in turn, the expected replacement behaviour in each segment. To be able to use DEMSIM as a forecasting tool in early stages of a diffusion process estimates of the model parameters are needed as soon as possible after product launch. However, traditional statistical techniques are not very helpful in estimating such parameters in early stages of a diffusion process. To enable early parameter calibration an optimization algorithm is developed by which the main parameters of the diffusion model can be estimated on the basis of very few sales observations. The optimization is carried out in iterative simulation runs. Empirical validations using the optimization algorithm reveal that the diffusion model performs well in early long-term sales forecasts, especially as it comes to the timing of future sales peaks.

Genetic and epigenetic mechanisms of tumor predisposition in hereditary non-polyposis colorectal carcinoma and sporadic cancers

Individuals with inherited deficiency in DNA mismatch repair(MMR) (Lynch syndrome) LS are predisposed to different cancers in a non-random fashion. Endometrial cancer (EC) is the most common extracolonic malignancy in LS. LS represents the best characterized form of hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal carcinoma (HNPCC). Other forms of familial non-polyposis colon cancer exist, including familial colorectal cancer type X (FCCX). This syndrome resembles LS, but MMR gene defects are excluded and the predisposition genes are unknown so far. To address why different organs are differently susceptible to cancer development, we examined molecular similarities and differences in selected cancers whose frequency varies in LS individuals. Tumors that are common (colorectal, endometrial, gastric) and less common (brain, urological) in LS were characterized for MMR protein expression, microsatellite instability (MSI), and by altered DNA methylation. We also studied samples of histologically normal endometrium, endometrial hyperplasia,and cancer for molecular alterations to identify potential markers that could predict malignant transformation in LS and sporadic cases. Our results suggest that brain and kidney tumors follow a different pathway for cancer development than the most common LS related cancers.Our results suggest also that MMR defects are detectable in endometrial tissues from a proportion of LS mutation carriers prior to endometrial cancer development. Traditionally (complex) atypical hyperplasia has been considered critical for progression to malignancy. Our results suggest that complex hyperplasia without atypia is equally important as a precursor lesion of malignancy. Tumor profiles from Egypt were compared with colorectal tumors from Finland to evaluate if there are differences specific to the ethnic origin (East vs.West). Results showed for the first time a distinct genetic and epigenetic signature in the Egyptian CRC marked by high methylation of microsatellite stable tumors associated with advanced stage, and low frequency of Wnt signaling activation, suggesting a novel pathway. DNA samples from FCCX families were studied with genome wide linkage analysis using microsatellite markers. Selected genes from the linked areas were tested for possible mutations that could explain predisposition to a large number of colon adenomas and carcinomas seen in these families. Based on the results from the linkage analysis, a number of areas with tentative linkage were identified in family 20. We narrowed down these areas by additional microsatellite markers to found a mutation in the BMPR1A gene. Sequencing of an additional 17 FCCX families resulted in a BMPR1A mutation frequency of 2/18 families (11%). Clarification of the mechanisms of the differential tumor susceptibility in LS increases the understanding of gene and organ specific targets of MMR deficiency. While it is generally accepted that widespread MMR deficiency and consequent microsatellite instability (MSI) drives tumorigenesis in LS, the timing of molecular alterations is controversial. In particular, it is important to know that alterations may occur several years before cancer formation, at stages that are still histologically regarded as normal. Identification of molecular markers that could predict the risk of malignant transformation may be used to improve surveillance and cancer prevention in genetically predisposed individuals. Significant fractions of families with colorectal and/or endometrial cancer presently lack molecular definition altogether. Our findings expand the phenotypic spectrum of BMPR1A mutations and, for the first time, link FCCX families to the germline mutation of a specific gene. In particular, our observations encourage screening of additional families with FCCX for BMPR1A mutation, which is necessary in obtaining a reliable estimate of the share of BMPR1A-associated cases among all FCCX families worldwide. Clinically, the identification of predisposing mutations enables targeted cancer prevention in proven mutation carriers and thereby reduces cancer morbidity and mortality in the respective families.

Sensitivity of wetland methane emissions to model assumptions: application and model testing against site observations

Abstract. Methane emissions from natural wetlands and rice paddies constitute a large proportion of atmospheric methane, but the magnitude and year-to-year variation of these methane sources is still unpredictable. Here we describe and evaluate the integration of a methane biogeochemical model (CLM4Me; Riley et al., 2011) into the Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4CN) in order to better explain spatial and temporal variations in methane emissions. We test new functions for soil pH and redox potential that impact microbial methane production in soils. We also constrain aerenchyma in plants in always-inundated areas in order to better represent wetland vegetation. Satellite inundated fraction is explicitly prescribed in the model because there are large differences between simulated fractional inundation and satellite observations. A rice paddy module is also incorporated into the model, where the fraction of land used for rice production is explicitly prescribed. The model is evaluated at the site level with vegetation cover and water table prescribed from measurements. Explicit site level evaluations of simulated methane emissions are quite different than evaluating the grid cell averaged emissions against available measurements. Using a baseline set of parameter values, our model-estimated average global wetland emissions for the period 1993–2004 were 256 Tg CH4 yr−1, and rice paddy emissions in the year 2000 were 42 Tg CH4 yr−1. Tropical wetlands contributed 201 Tg CH4 yr−1, or 78 % of the global wetland flux. Northern latitude (>50 N) systems contributed 12 Tg CH4 yr−1. We expect this latter number may be an underestimate due to the low high-latitude inundated area captured by satellites and unrealistically low high-latitude productivity and soil carbon predicted by CLM4. Sensitivity analysis showed a large range (150–346 Tg CH4 yr−1) in predicted global methane emissions. The large range was sensitive to: (1) the amount of methane transported through aerenchyma, (2) soil pH (± 100 Tg CH4 yr−1), and (3) redox inhibition (± 45 Tg CH4 yr−1).