Diagnostic Tests Based on Quantile Residuals for Nonlinear Time Series Models

This thesis studies quantile residuals and uses different methodologies to develop test statistics that are applicable in evaluating linear and nonlinear time series models based on continuous distributions. Models based on mixtures of distributions are of special interest because it turns out that for those models traditional residuals, often referred to as Pearson's residuals, are not appropriate. As such models have become more and more popular in practice, especially with financial time series data there is a need for reliable diagnostic tools that can be used to evaluate them. The aim of the thesis is to show how such diagnostic tools can be obtained and used in model evaluation. The quantile residuals considered here are defined in such a way that, when the model is correctly specified and its parameters are consistently estimated, they are approximately independent with standard normal distribution. All the tests derived in the thesis are pure significance type tests and are theoretically sound in that they properly take the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation into account. -- In Chapter 2 a general framework based on the likelihood function and smooth functions of univariate quantile residuals is derived that can be used to obtain misspecification tests for various purposes. Three easy-to-use tests aimed at detecting non-normality, autocorrelation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in quantile residuals are formulated. It also turns out that these tests can be interpreted as Lagrange Multiplier or score tests so that they are asymptotically optimal against local alternatives. Chapter 3 extends the concept of quantile residuals to multivariate models. The framework of Chapter 2 is generalized and tests aimed at detecting non-normality, serial correlation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in multivariate quantile residuals are derived based on it. Score test interpretations are obtained for the serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity tests and in a rather restricted special case for the normality test. In Chapter 4 the tests are constructed using the empirical distribution function of quantile residuals. So-called Khmaladze s martingale transformation is applied in order to eliminate the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation. Various test statistics are considered so that critical bounds for histogram type plots as well as Quantile-Quantile and Probability-Probability type plots of quantile residuals are obtained. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 contain simulations and empirical examples which illustrate the finite sample size and power properties of the derived tests and also how the tests and related graphical tools based on residuals are applied in practice.

The effects of the 2004 reduction in the price of alcohol on alcohol-related harm in Finland : A natural experiment based on register data

Changes in alcohol pricing have been documented as inversely associated with changes in consumption and alcohol-related problems. Evidence of the association between price changes and health problems is nevertheless patchy and is based to a large extent on cross-sectional state-level data, or time series of such cross-sectional analyses. Natural experimental studies have been called for. There was a substantial reduction in the price of alcohol in Finland in 2004 due to a reduction in alcohol taxes of one third, on average, and the abolition of duty-free allowances for travellers from the EU. These changes in the Finnish alcohol policy could be considered a natural experiment, which offered a good opportunity to study what happens with regard to alcohol-related problems when prices go down. The present study investigated the effects of this reduction in alcohol prices on (1) alcohol-related and all-cause mortality, and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, (2) alcohol-related morbidity in terms of hospitalisation, (3) socioeconomic differentials in alcohol-related mortality, and (4) small-area differences in interpersonal violence in the Helsinki Metropolitan area. Differential trends in alcohol-related mortality prior to the price reduction were also analysed. A variety of population-based register data was used in the study. Time-series intervention analysis modelling was applied to monthly aggregations of deaths and hospitalisation for the period 1996-2006. These and other mortality analyses were carried out for men and women aged 15 years and over. Socioeconomic differentials in alcohol-related mortality were assessed on a before/after basis, mortality being followed up in 2001-2003 (before the price reduction) and 2004-2005 (after). Alcohol-related mortality was defined in all the studies on mortality on the basis of information on both underlying and contributory causes of death. Hospitalisation related to alcohol meant that there was a reference to alcohol in the primary diagnosis. Data on interpersonal violence was gathered from 86 administrative small-areas in the Helsinki Metropolitan area and was also assessed on a before/after basis followed up in 2002-2003 and 2004-2005. The statistical methods employed to analyse these data sets included time-series analysis, and Poisson and linear regression. The results of the study indicate that alcohol-related deaths increased substantially among men aged 40-69 years and among women aged 50-69 after the price reduction when trends and seasonal variation were taken into account. The increase was mainly attributable to chronic causes, particularly liver diseases. Mortality due to cardiovascular diseases and all-cause mortality, on the other hand, decreased considerably among the-over-69-year-olds. The increase in alcohol-related mortality in absolute terms among the 30-59-year-olds was largest among the unemployed and early-age pensioners, and those with a low level of education, social class or income. The relative differences in change between the education and social class subgroups were small. The employed and those under the age of 35 did not suffer from increased alcohol-related mortality in the two years following the price reduction. The gap between the age and education groups, which was substantial in the 1980s, thus further broadened. With regard to alcohol-related hospitalisation, there was an increase in both chronic and acute causes among men under the age of 70, and among women in the 50-69-year age group when trends and seasonal variation were taken into account. Alcohol dependence and other alcohol-related mental and behavioural disorders were the largest category in both the total number of chronic hospitalisation and in the increase. There was no increase in the rate of interpersonal violence in the Helsinki Metropolitan area, and even a decrease in domestic violence. There was a significant relationship between the measures of social disadvantage on the area level and interpersonal violence, although the differences in the effects of the price reduction between the different areas were small. The findings of the present study suggest that that a reduction in alcohol prices may lead to a substantial increase in alcohol-related mortality and morbidity. However, large population group differences were observed regarding responsiveness to the price changes. In particular, the less privileged, such as the unemployed, were most sensitive. In contrast, at least in the Finnish context, the younger generations and the employed do not appear to be adversely affected, and those in the older age groups may even benefit from cheaper alcohol in terms of decreased rates of CVD mortality. The results also suggest that reductions in alcohol prices do not necessarily affect interpersonal violence. The population group differences in the effects of the price changes on alcohol-related harm should be acknowledged, and therefore the policy actions should focus on the population subgroups that are primarily responsive to the price reduction.

Angel Investing in Finland: An Analysis Based on Agency Theory and the Incomplete Contracting Theory

Wealthy individuals - business angels who invest a share of their net worth in entrepreneurial ventures - form an essential part of an informal venture capital market that can secure funding for entrepreneurial ventures. In Finland, business angels represent an untapped pool of capital that can contribute to fostering entrepreneurial development. In addition, business angels can bridge knowledge gaps in new business ventures by means of making their human capital available. This study has two objectives. The first is to gain an understanding of the characteristics and investment behaviour of Finnish business angels. The strongest focus here is on the due diligence procedures and their involvement post investment. The second objective is to assess whether agency theory and the incomplete contacting theory are useful theoretical lenses in the arena of business angels. To achieve the second objective, this study investigates i) how risk is mitigated in the investment process, ii) how uncertainty influences the comprehensiveness of due diligence as well as iii) how control is allocated post investment. Research hypotheses are derived from assumptions underlying agency theory and the incomplete contacting theory. The data for this study comprise interviews with 53 business angels. In terms of sample size this is the largest on Finnish business angels. The research hypotheses in this study are tested using regression analysis. This study suggests that the Finnish informal venture capital market appears to be comprised of a limited number of business angels whose style of investing much resembles their formal counterparts’. Much focus is placed on managing risks prior to making the investment by strong selectiveness and by a relatively comprehensive due diligence. The involvement is rarely on a day-to-day basis and many business angels seem to see board membership as a more suitable alternative than involvement in the operations of an entrepreneurial venture. The uncertainty involved does not seem to drive an increase in due diligence. On the contrary, it would appear that due diligence is more rigorous in safer later stage investments and when the business angels have considerable previous experience as investors. Finnish business angels’ involvement post investment is best explained by their degree of ownership in the entrepreneurial venture. It seems that when investors feel they are sufficiently rewarded, in terms of an adequate equity stake, they are willing to involve themselves actively in their investments. The lack of support for a relationship between increased uncertainty and the comprehensiveness of due diligence may partly be explained by an increasing trend towards portfolio diversification. This is triggered by a taxation system that favours investments through investment companies rather than direct investments. Many business angels appear to have substituted a specialization strategy that builds on reducing uncertainty for a diversification strategy that builds on reducing firm specific (idiosyncratic) risk by holding shares in ventures whose returns are not expected to exhibit a strong positive correlation.

Assessment of In-House Natural Product and Synthetic Compound Libraries Based on In vitro Inhibition of Cholinesterases

The first line medication for mild to moderate Alzheimer s disease (AD) is based on cholinesterase inhibitors which prolong the effect of the neurotransmitter acetylcholine in cholinergic nerve synapses which relieves the symptoms of the disease. Implications of cholinesterases involvement in disease modifying processes has increased interest in this research area. The drug discovery and development process is a long and expensive process that takes on average 13.5 years and costs approximately 0.9 billion US dollars. Drug attritions in the clinical phases are common due to several reasons, e.g., poor bioavailability of compounds leading to low efficacy or toxic effects. Thus, improvements in the early drug discovery process are needed to create highly potent non-toxic compounds with predicted drug-like properties. Nature has been a good source for the discovery of new medicines accounting for around half of the new drugs approved to market during the last three decades. These compounds are direct isolates from the nature, their synthetic derivatives or natural mimics. Synthetic chemistry is an alternative way to produce compounds for drug discovery purposes. Both sources have pros and cons. The screening of new bioactive compounds in vitro is based on assaying compound libraries against targets. Assay set-up has to be adapted and validated for each screen to produce high quality data. Depending on the size of the library, miniaturization and automation are often requirements to reduce solvent and compound amounts and fasten the process. In this contribution, natural extract, natural pure compound and synthetic compound libraries were assessed as sources for new bioactive compounds. The libraries were screened primarily for acetylcholinesterase inhibitory effect and secondarily for butyrylcholinesterase inhibitory effect. To be able to screen the libraries, two assays were evaluated as screening tools and adapted to be compatible with special features of each library. The assays were validated to create high quality data. Cholinesterase inhibitors with various potencies and selectivity were found in natural product and synthetic compound libraries which indicates that the two sources complement each other. It is acknowledged that natural compounds differ structurally from compounds in synthetic compound libraries which further support the view of complementation especially if a high diversity of structures is the criterion for selection of compounds in a library.

Climatic adaptation of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karsten) in Finland based on male flowering phenology.

Anthesis was studied at the canopy level in 10 Norway spruce stands from 9 localities in Finland from 1963 to 1974. Distributions of pollen catches were compared to the normal Gaussian distribution. The basis for the timing studies was the 50 per cent point of the anthesis-fitted normal distribution. Development up to this point was given in calendar days, in degree days (>5 °C) and in period units. The count of each parameter began on March 19 (included). Male flowering in Norway spruce stands was found to have more annual variation in quantity than in Scots pine stands studied earlier. Anthesis in spruce in northern Finland occurred at a later date than in the south. The heat sums needed for anthesis varied latitudinally less in spruce than in pine. The variation of pollen catches in spruce increased towards north-west as in the case of Scots pine. In the unprocessed data, calendar days were found to be the most accurate forecast of anthesis in Norway spruce both for a single year and for the majority of cases of stand averages over several years. Locally, the period unit could be a more accurate parameter for the stand average. However, on a calendar day basis, when annual deviations between expected and measured heat sums were converted to days, period units were narrowly superior to days. The geographical correlations respect to timing of flowering, calculated against distances measured along simulated post-glacial migration routes, were stronger than purely latitudinal correlations. Effects of the reinvasion of Norway spruce into Finland are thus still visible in spruce populations just as they were in Scots pine populations. The proportion of the average annual heat sum needed for spruce anthesis grew rapidly north of a latitude of ca. 63° and the heat sum needed for anthesis decreased only slighty towards the timberline. In light of flowering phenology, it seems probable that the northwesterly third of Finnish Norway spruce populations are incompletely adapted to the prevailing cold climate. A moderate warming of the climate would therefore be beneficial for Norway spruce. This accords roughly with the adaptive situation in Scots pine.

Assessment of insect occurrence in boreal forests based on satellite imagery and field measurements.

The presence/absence data of twenty-seven forest insect taxa (e.g. Retinia resinella, Formica spp., Pissodes spp., several scolytids) and recorded environmental variation were used to investigate the applicability of modelling insect occurrence based on satellite imagery. The sampling was based on 1800 sample plots (25 m by 25 m) placed along the sides of 30 equilateral triangles (side 1 km) in a fragmented forest area (approximately 100 km2) in Evo, S Finland. The triangles were overlaid on land use maps interpreted from satellite images (Landsat TM 30 m multispectral scanner imagery 1991) and digitized geological maps. Insect occurrence was explained using either environmental variables measured in the field or those interpreted from the land use and geological maps. The fit of logistic regression models varied between species, possibly because some species may be associated with the characteristics of single trees while other species with stand characteristics. The occurrence of certain insect species at least, especially those associated with Scots pine, could be relatively accurately assessed indirectly on the basis of satellite imagery and geological maps. Models based on both remotely sensed and geological data better predicted the distribution of forest insects except in the case of Xylechinus pilosus, Dryocoetes sp. and Trypodendron lineatum, where the differences were relatively small in favour of the models based on field measurements. The number of species was related to habitat compartment size and distance from the habitat edge calculated from the land use maps, but logistic regressions suggested that other environmental variables in general masked the effect of these variables in species occurrence at the present scale.

Differences in the climatic adaptation of silver birch (Betula pendula) and downy birch (B. pubescens) in Finland based on male flowering phenology.

Male flowering was studied at the canopy level in 10 silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) stands from 8 localities and in 14 downy birch (B. pubescens Ehrh.) stands from 10 localities in Finland from 1963 to 1973. Distributions of cumulative pollen catches were compared to the normal Gaussian distribution. The basis for the timing of flowering was the 50 per cent point of the anthesis-fitted normal distribution. To eliminate effects of background pollen, only the central, normally distributed part of the cumulative distribution was used. Development up to the median point of the distribution was measured and tested in calendar days, in degree days (> 5 °C) and in period units. The count of each parameter began on and included March 19. Male flowering in silver birch occurred from late April to late June depending on latitude, and flowering in downy birch took place from early May to early July. The heat sums needed for male flowering varied in downy birch stands latitudinally but there was practically no latitudinal variation in heat sums needed for silver birch flowering. The amount of male flowering in stands of both birch species were found to have a large annual variation but without any clear periodicity. The between years pollen catch variation in stands of either birch species did not show any significant latitudinal correlation in contrast to Norway spruce stands. The period unit heat sum gave the most accurate forecast of the timing of flowering for 60 per cent of the silver birch stands and for 78.6 per cent of the for downy birch stands. Calendar days, however, gave the best forecast for silver birch in 25 per cent of the cases, while degree days gave the best forecast for downy birch in 21.4 per cent of the cases. Silver birch seems to have a local inclination for a more fixed flowering date compared to downy birch, which could mean a considerable photoperiodic influence on flowering time of silver birch. Silver birch and downy birch had different geographical correlations. Frequent hybridization of birch species occurs more often in northern Finland in than in more southern latitudes. The different timing in flowering caused increasing scatter in flowering times in the north, especially in the case of downy birch. The chance of simultaneous flowering of silver birch and downy birch so increased northwards due to a more variable climate and also higher altitudinal variations. Compared with conifers, the reproduction cycles of both birch species were found to be well protected from damage by frost.

Reacting to Complex Threats – the Securitization in the Speeches of Anders Fogh Rasmussen based on NATO´s New Strategic Concept

The purpose of this master´s thesis is to analyze how NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen is trying to justify the existence of the military alliance through the use of security arguments. I am puzzled by the question: why does NATO still exist – what is NATO’s raison d'être. The New Strategic Concept (2010) forms the base for his argumentation. This thesis focuses on the security argumentation of NATO which is examined by analyzing the speeches the Secretary General. The theoretical framework of this study is based on constructivist approach to international security examining the linguistic process of securitization. Issues become securitized after Anders Fogh Rasmussen names them as threats. This thesis focuses on the securitization process relating to NATO and analyses what issues Rasmussen raises to the security agenda. Research data consists of the speeches by Anders Fogh Rasmussen. They are analyzed through J.L. Austin’s speech act taxonomy and Chaïm Perelman’s argumentation theories. The thesis will concentrate on the formulation and articulation of these threats which are considered and coined as “new threats” in contemporary international relations. I am conducting this research through the use of securitization theory. This study illustrates that the threats are constructed by NATO’s member-states in unison, but the resolutions are sounded through Rasmussen’s official speeches and transcripts. . Based on the analysis it can be concluded that Rasmussen is giving reasons for the existence of NATO. This takes place by making use of speech acts and different rhetorical techniques. The results of the analysis indicate that NATO remains an essential organization for the West and the rest of the world according to the Secretary General.

An Efficient Constraint Grammar Parser based on Inward Deterministic Automata

Pappret conceptualizes parsning med Constraint Grammar på ett nytt sätt som en process med två viktiga representationer. En representation innehåller lokala tvetydighet och den andra sammanfattar egenskaperna hos den lokala tvetydighet klasser. Båda representationer manipuleras med ren finite-state metoder, men deras samtrafik är en ad hoc -tillämpning av rationella potensserier. Den nya tolkningen av parsning systemet har flera praktiska fördelar, bland annat det inåt deterministiska sättet att beräkna, representera och räkna om alla potentiella tillämpningar av reglerna i meningen.