Monetary policy rules and estimated reaction functions for the European Central Bank

This thesis studies the interest-rate policy of the ECB by estimating monetary policy rules using real-time data and central bank forecasts. The aim of the estimations is to try to characterize a decade of common monetary policy and to look at how different models perform at this task.The estimated rules include: contemporary Taylor rules, forward-looking Taylor rules, nonlinearrules and forecast-based rules. The nonlinear models allow for the possibility of zone-like preferences and an asymmetric response to key variables. The models therefore encompass the most popular sub-group of simple models used for policy analysis as well as the more unusual non-linear approach. In addition to the empirical work, this thesis also contains a more general discussion of monetary policy rules mostly from a New Keynesian perspective. This discussion includes an overview of some notable related studies, optimal policy, policy gradualism and several other related subjects. The regression estimations are performed with either least squares or the generalized method of moments depending on the requirements of the estimations. The estimations use data from both the Euro Area Real-Time Database and the central bank forecasts published in ECB Monthly Bulletins. These data sources represent some of the best data that is available for this kind of analysis. The main results of this thesis are that forward-looking behavior appears highly prevalent, but that standard forward-looking Taylor rules offer only ambivalent results with regard to inflation. Nonlinear models are shown to work, but on the other hand do not have a strong rationale over a simpler linear formulation. However, the forecasts appear to be highly useful in characterizing policy and may offer the most accurate depiction of a predominantly forward-looking central bank. In particular the inflation response appears much stronger while the output response becomes highly forward-looking as well.

Looking-Glass Reflections : Norms in translating Lewis Carroll

This thesis in the field of translation studies focusses on the role of norms in the work of a literary translator. Norms are seen as guidelines for the translator; they also reflect the way the target audience either accepts or rejects the translation. Thus they are of an intersubjective nature. The theoretical background of the study is based on the views on norms of Andrew Chesterman and Gideon Toury. The writer makes use of her own editing and publishing experience, as well as her experience in translating Lewis Carroll, considering these in respect to theoretical views of norms and vice versa. The aim is also to bring to light some of the tacit knowledge related to translating, editing and publishing in Finland. The study has three angles. First, the writer introduces the norms of Finnish literary translation as gathered from her own working experience. The sources from which these norms arise and which affect them are briefly described. Six central translation norms emerge; they are described and exemplified through cases of Carroll translation. Secondly, a small-scale questionnaire study is presented. This was carried out in order to sound the normative views of other translators and to limit the role of subjectivity. The views of the informants largely support the set of norms presented by the writer, although the norms of quotability and harmony between translation and illustration do not arise. Instead, the answers give rise to a seventh, ethical norm, which is labelled the norm of integrity. Thirdly, there is a brief presentation of Lewis Carroll, his Alice books and their translation history in Finland. The retranslation hypothesis and the motives of retranslation are considered in the light of the work of Outi Paloposki and Kaisa Koskinen. The final part of the thesis plunges into actual translation work. It includes one and a half chapters of Through the Looking-Glass (Alicen seikkailut peilintakamaassa) as translated into Finnish by the writer. The translation commentary first discusses a number of recurring and general translation points; the running commentary then analyses 77 individual translation solutions and their justifications. The writer uses introspection as a way of reflecting on her own translation process, its decisive points and the role of norms therein. Keywords: Translation studies, Carroll, norms