Towards the Use of Radar Winds in Numerical Weather Prediction

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models provide the basis for weather forecasting by simulating the evolution of the atmospheric state. A good forecast requires that the initial state of the atmosphere is known accurately, and that the NWP model is a realistic representation of the atmosphere. Data assimilation methods are used to produce initial conditions for NWP models. The NWP model background field, typically a short-range forecast, is updated with observations in a statistically optimal way. The objective in this thesis has been to develope methods in order to allow data assimilation of Doppler radar radial wind observations. The work has been carried out in the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) 3-dimensional variational data assimilation framework. Observation modelling is a key element in exploiting indirect observations of the model variables. In the radar radial wind observation modelling, the vertical model wind profile is interpolated to the observation location, and the projection of the model wind vector on the radar pulse path is calculated. The vertical broadening of the radar pulse volume, and the bending of the radar pulse path due to atmospheric conditions are taken into account. Radar radial wind observations are modelled within observation errors which consist of instrumental, modelling, and representativeness errors. Systematic and random modelling errors can be minimized by accurate observation modelling. The impact of the random part of the instrumental and representativeness errors can be decreased by calculating spatial averages from the raw observations. Model experiments indicate that the spatial averaging clearly improves the fit of the radial wind observations to the model in terms of observation minus model background (OmB) standard deviation. Monitoring the quality of the observations is an important aspect, especially when a new observation type is introduced into a data assimilation system. Calculating the bias for radial wind observations in a conventional way can result in zero even in case there are systematic differences in the wind speed and/or direction. A bias estimation method designed for this observation type is introduced in the thesis. Doppler radar radial wind observation modelling, together with the bias estimation method, enables the exploitation of the radial wind observations also for NWP model validation. The one-month model experiments performed with the HIRLAM model versions differing only in a surface stress parameterization detail indicate that the use of radar wind observations in NWP model validation is very beneficial.

Exploiting ground-based measurements of the Global Positioning System for numerical weather prediction

Data assimilation provides an initial atmospheric state, called the analysis, for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). This analysis consists of pressure, temperature, wind, and humidity on a three-dimensional NWP model grid. Data assimilation blends meteorological observations with the NWP model in a statistically optimal way. The objective of this thesis is to describe methodological development carried out in order to allow data assimilation of ground-based measurements of the Global Positioning System (GPS) into the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) NWP system. Geodetic processing produces observations of tropospheric delay. These observations can be processed either for vertical columns at each GPS receiver station, or for the individual propagation paths of the microwave signals. These alternative processing methods result in Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) and Slant Delay (SD) observations, respectively. ZTD and SD observations are of use in the analysis of atmospheric humidity. A method is introduced for estimation of the horizontal error covariance of ZTD observations. The method makes use of observation minus model background (OmB) sequences of ZTD and conventional observations. It is demonstrated that the ZTD observation error covariance is relatively large in station separations shorter than 200 km, but non-zero covariances also appear at considerably larger station separations. The relatively low density of radiosonde observing stations limits the ability of the proposed estimation method to resolve the shortest length-scales of error covariance. SD observations are shown to contain a statistically significant signal on the asymmetry of the atmospheric humidity field. However, the asymmetric component of SD is found to be nearly always smaller than the standard deviation of the SD observation error. SD observation modelling is described in detail, and other issues relating to SD data assimilation are also discussed. These include the determination of error statistics, the tuning of observation quality control and allowing the taking into account of local observation error correlation. The experiments made show that the data assimilation system is able to retrieve the asymmetric information content of hypothetical SD observations at a single receiver station. Moreover, the impact of real SD observations on humidity analysis is comparable to that of other observing systems.

On the mechanical behavior of compacted pack ice : A theoretical and numerical investigation

Pack ice is an aggregate of ice floes drifting on the sea surface. The forces controlling the motion and deformation of pack ice are air and water drag forces, sea surface tilt, Coriolis force and the internal force due to the interaction between ice floes. In this thesis, the mechanical behavior of compacted pack ice is investigated using theoretical and numerical methods, focusing on the three basic material properties: compressive strength, yield curve and flow rule. A high-resolution three-category sea ice model is applied to investigate the sea ice dynamics in two small basins, the whole Gulf Riga and the inside Pärnu Bay, focusing on the calibration of the compressive strength for thin ice. These two basins are on the scales of 100 km and 20 km, respectively, with typical ice thickness of 10-30 cm. The model is found capable of capturing the main characteristics of the ice dynamics. The compressive strength is calibrated to be about 30 kPa, consistent with the values from most large-scale sea ice dynamic studies. In addition, the numerical study in Pärnu Bay suggests that the shear strength drops significantly when the ice-floe size markedly decreases. A characteristic inversion method is developed to probe the yield curve of compacted pack ice. The basis of this method is the relationship between the intersection angle of linear kinematic features (LKFs) in sea ice and the slope of the yield curve. A summary of the observed LKFs shows that they can be basically divided into three groups: intersecting leads, uniaxial opening leads and uniaxial pressure ridges. Based on the available observed angles, the yield curve is determined to be a curved diamond. Comparisons of this yield curve with those from other methods show that it possesses almost all the advantages identified by the other methods. A new constitutive law is proposed, where the yield curve is a diamond and the flow rule is a combination of the normal and co-axial flow rule. The non-normal co-axial flow rule is necessary for the Coulombic yield constraint. This constitutive law not only captures the main features of forming LKFs but also takes the advantage of avoiding overestimating divergence during shear deformation. Moreover, this study provides a method for observing the flow rule for pack ice during deformation.

On the behaviour of some physical parameterization methods in high-resolution numerical weather prediction models

Modern-day weather forecasting is highly dependent on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models as the main data source. The evolving state of the atmosphere with time can be numerically predicted by solving a set of hydrodynamic equations, if the initial state is known. However, such a modelling approach always contains approximations that by and large depend on the purpose of use and resolution of the models. Present-day NWP systems operate with horizontal model resolutions in the range from about 40 km to 10 km. Recently, the aim has been to reach operationally to scales of 1 4 km. This requires less approximations in the model equations, more complex treatment of physical processes and, furthermore, more computing power. This thesis concentrates on the physical parameterization methods used in high-resolution NWP models. The main emphasis is on the validation of the grid-size-dependent convection parameterization in the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) and on a comprehensive intercomparison of radiative-flux parameterizations. In addition, the problems related to wind prediction near the coastline are addressed with high-resolution meso-scale models. The grid-size-dependent convection parameterization is clearly beneficial for NWP models operating with a dense grid. Results show that the current convection scheme in HIRLAM is still applicable down to a 5.6 km grid size. However, with further improved model resolution, the tendency of the model to overestimate strong precipitation intensities increases in all the experiment runs. For the clear-sky longwave radiation parameterization, schemes used in NWP-models provide much better results in comparison with simple empirical schemes. On the other hand, for the shortwave part of the spectrum, the empirical schemes are more competitive for producing fairly accurate surface fluxes. Overall, even the complex radiation parameterization schemes used in NWP-models seem to be slightly too transparent for both long- and shortwave radiation in clear-sky conditions. For cloudy conditions, simple cloud correction functions are tested. In case of longwave radiation, the empirical cloud correction methods provide rather accurate results, whereas for shortwave radiation the benefit is only marginal. Idealised high-resolution two-dimensional meso-scale model experiments suggest that the reason for the observed formation of the afternoon low level jet (LLJ) over the Gulf of Finland is an inertial oscillation mechanism, when the large-scale flow is from the south-east or west directions. The LLJ is further enhanced by the sea-breeze circulation. A three-dimensional HIRLAM experiment, with a 7.7 km grid size, is able to generate a similar LLJ flow structure as suggested by the 2D-experiments and observations. It is also pointed out that improved model resolution does not necessary lead to better wind forecasts in the statistical sense. In nested systems, the quality of the large-scale host model is really important, especially if the inner meso-scale model domain is small.

Numerical approaches to new particle formation and growth in the atmosphere

Aerosols impact the planet and our daily lives through various effects, perhaps most notably those related to their climatic and health-related consequences. While there are several primary particle sources, secondary new particle formation from precursor vapors is also known to be a frequent, global phenomenon. Nevertheless, the formation mechanism of new particles, as well as the vapors participating in the process, remain a mystery. This thesis consists of studies on new particle formation specifically from the point of view of numerical modeling. A dependence of formation rate of 3 nm particles on the sulphuric acid concentration to the power of 1-2 has been observed. This suggests nucleation mechanism to be of first or second order with respect to the sulphuric acid concentration, in other words the mechanisms based on activation or kinetic collision of clusters. However, model studies have had difficulties in replicating the small exponents observed in nature. The work done in this thesis indicates that the exponents may be lowered by the participation of a co-condensing (and potentially nucleating) low-volatility organic vapor, or by increasing the assumed size of the critical clusters. On the other hand, the presented new and more accurate method for determining the exponent indicates high diurnal variability. Additionally, these studies included several semi-empirical nucleation rate parameterizations as well as a detailed investigation of the analysis used to determine the apparent particle formation rate. Due to their high proportion of the earth's surface area, oceans could potentially prove to be climatically significant sources of secondary particles. In the lack of marine observation data, new particle formation events in a coastal region were parameterized and studied. Since the formation mechanism is believed to be similar, the new parameterization was applied in a marine scenario. The work showed that marine CCN production is feasible in the presence of additional vapors contributing to particle growth. Finally, a new method to estimate concentrations of condensing organics was developed. The algorithm utilizes a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to determine the required combination of vapor concentrations by comparing a measured particle size distribution with one from an aerosol dynamics process model. The evaluation indicated excellent agreement against model data, and initial results with field data appear sound as well.

Local numerical modelling of magnetoconvection and turbulence - implications for mean-field theories

During the last decades mean-field models, in which large-scale magnetic fields and differential rotation arise due to the interaction of rotation and small-scale turbulence, have been enormously successful in reproducing many of the observed features of the Sun. In the meantime, new observational techniques, most prominently helioseismology, have yielded invaluable information about the interior of the Sun. This new information, however, imposes strict conditions on mean-field models. Moreover, most of the present mean-field models depend on knowledge of the small-scale turbulent effects that give rise to the large-scale phenomena. In many mean-field models these effects are prescribed in ad hoc fashion due to the lack of this knowledge. With large enough computers it would be possible to solve the MHD equations numerically under stellar conditions. However, the problem is too large by several orders of magnitude for the present day and any foreseeable computers. In our view, a combination of mean-field modelling and local 3D calculations is a more fruitful approach. The large-scale structures are well described by global mean-field models, provided that the small-scale turbulent effects are adequately parameterized. The latter can be achieved by performing local calculations which allow a much higher spatial resolution than what can be achieved in direct global calculations. In the present dissertation three aspects of mean-field theories and models of stars are studied. Firstly, the basic assumptions of different mean-field theories are tested with calculations of isotropic turbulence and hydrodynamic, as well as magnetohydrodynamic, convection. Secondly, even if the mean-field theory is unable to give the required transport coefficients from first principles, it is in some cases possible to compute these coefficients from 3D numerical models in a parameter range that can be considered to describe the main physical effects in an adequately realistic manner. In the present study, the Reynolds stresses and turbulent heat transport, responsible for the generation of differential rotation, were determined along the mixing length relations describing convection in stellar structure models. Furthermore, the alpha-effect and magnetic pumping due to turbulent convection in the rapid rotation regime were studied. The third area of the present study is to apply the local results in mean-field models, which task we start to undertake by applying the results concerning the alpha-effect and turbulent pumping in mean-field models describing the solar dynamo.

A Success Story or a Failure? : Representing the European Integration in the Curricula and Textbooks of Five Countries

The economic, political and social face of Europe has been changing rapidly in the past decades. These changes are unique in the history of Europe, but not without challenges for the nation states. The support for the European integration varies among the countries. In order to understand why certain developments or changes are perceived as threatening or as desired by different member countries, we must consider the social representations of the European integration on the national level: how the EU is represented to its citizens in media and in educational systems, particularly in the curricula and textbooks. The current study is concerned with the social representations of the European integration in the curricula and school textbooks in five European countries: France, Britain, Germany, Finland and Sweden. Besides that, the first volume of the common Franco-German history textbook was analyzed, since it has been seen as a model for a common European history textbook. As the collective representations, values and identities are dominantly mediated and imposed through media and educational systems, the national curricula and textbooks make an interesting starting point for the study of the European integration and of national and European identities. The social representations theory provides a comprehensive framework for the study of the European integration. By analyzing the curricula and history and civics textbooks of major educational publishers, the study aimed to demonstrate what is written on the European integration and how it is portrayed how the European integration is understood, made familiar and concretized in the educational context in the five European countries. To grasp the phenomenon of the European integration in the textbooks in its entirety, it was investigated from various perspectives. The two analysis methods of content analysis, the automatic analysis with ALCESTE and a more qualitative theory-driven content analysis, were carried out to give a more vivid and multifaceted picture of the object of the research. The analysis of the text was complemented with the analysis of visual material. Drawing on quantitative and qualitative methods, the contents, processes, visual images, transformations and structures of the social representations of European integration, as well as the communicative styles of the textbooks were examined. This study showed the divergent social representations of the European integration, anchored in the nation states, in the five member countries of the European Union. The social representations were constructed around different central core elements: French Europe in the French textbooks, Ambivalent Europe in the British textbooks, Influential and Unifying EU in the German textbooks, Enabling and Threatening EU in the Finnish textbooks, Sceptical EU in the Swedish textbooks and EU as a World Model in the Franco-German textbook. Some elements of the representations were shared by all countries such as peace and economic aspects of the European cooperation, whereas other elements of representations were found more frequently in some countries than in others, such as ideological, threatening or social components of the phenomenon European integration. The study also demonstrated the linkage between social representations of the EU and national and European identities. The findings of this study are applicable to the study of the European integration, to the study of education, as well as to the social representation theory.

Data integration from two microarray platforms identifies bi-allelic genetic inactivation of RIC8A in a breast cancer cell line

Background: Using array comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH), a large number of deleted genomic regions have been identified in human cancers. However, subsequent efforts to identify target genes selected for inactivation in these regions have often been challenging. Methods: We integrated here genome-wide copy number data with gene expression data and non-sense mediated mRNA decay rates in breast cancer cell lines to prioritize gene candidates that are likely to be tumour suppressor genes inactivated by bi-allelic genetic events. The candidates were sequenced to identify potential mutations. Results: This integrated genomic approach led to the identification of RIC8A at 11p15 as a putative candidate target gene for the genomic deletion in the ZR-75-1 breast cancer cell line. We identified a truncating mutation in this cell line, leading to loss of expression and rapid decay of the transcript. We screened 127 breast cancers for RIC8A mutations, but did not find any pathogenic mutations. No promoter hypermethylation in these tumours was detected either. However, analysis of gene expression data from breast tumours identified a small group of aggressive tumours that displayed low levels of RIC8A transcripts. qRT-PCR analysis of 38 breast tumours showed a strong association between low RIC8A expression and the presence of TP53 mutations (P = 0.006). Conclusion: We demonstrate a data integration strategy leading to the identification of RIC8A as a gene undergoing a classical double-hit genetic inactivation in a breast cancer cell line, as well as in vivo evidence of loss of RIC8A expression in a subgroup of aggressive TP53 mutant breast cancers.

On the discursive construction of success/failure in narratives of post-merger integration

This article concentrates on the discursive constmction of success and failure in narratives of post-merger integration. Drawing on extensive interview material from eight Finnish-Swedish mergers and acquisitions, the empirical analysis leads to distinguishing four types of discourse — 'rationalistic', 'cultural', 'role-bound' and 'individualistic' — that narrators employ in recounting their experiences. In particular, the empirical material illustrates how the discursive frameworks enable specific (di.scursive) strategies and moves for (re)framing the success/failure, justification/legitimization of one's own actions, and (re)constniction of responsibility when dealing with socio-psychological pressures associated with success/failtire. The analysis also suggests that, as a result of making use of these discursive strategies and moves, success stories are likely to lead to overly optimistic or, in the case of failure stories, overly pessimistic views on the management's ability to control these change processes. Tliese findings imply that we should take the discursive elements that both constrain our descriptions and explanations seriously, and provide opportunities for more or less intentional (re)interpretations of postmerger integration or other organizational change processes.

Cultural differences and capability transfer in cross-border acquisitions: the mediating roles of capability complementarity, absorptive capacity, and social integration

This paper presents an integrative model of the impact of cultural differences on capability transfer in cross-border acquisitions. We propose that cultural differences affect the post-acquisition capability transfer through their impact on social integration, potential absorptive capacity, and capability complementarity. Two dynamic variables – the use of social integration mechanisms, and the degree of operational integration of the acquired unit – are proposed to moderate the effects of cultural differences on social integration and potential absorptive capacity. The implications for acquisition research and practice are discussed.

Integration or disintegration? Human resource implications of a common corporate language decision in a crossborder merger

The primary purpose of introducing a common corporate language in crossborder mergers is to integrate two previously separate organizations and facilitate communication. However, the present case study of a cross-border merger between two Nordic banks shows that the common corporate language decision may have disintegrating effects, particularly at organizational levels below top management. We identify such effects on performance appraisal, language training and management development, career paths, promotion and key personnel. Our findings show that top management needs to work through the consequences of the language decision upon those who are expected to make such a decision work.

The Impact of Cultural Factors on Post-Acquisition Integration: Domestic and Foreign Acquisitions of Finnish Companies in 1993-2004

Acquisitions are a central component of corporate strategy. They contribute to competitive advantage by offering possibilities for both cost reductions and for revenue enhancements. However, many acquisition benefits cannot be realized without a successful integration of the acquiring and the acquired firms. Previous research shows that national and organizational culture can play a major role in determining the integration outcomes. Therefore, the overall aim of the thesis is to map out and illustrate the impact mechanisms of cultural factors in post-acquisition integration in order to explain the cultural aspects of acquisitions. This study has three main contributions. First, the study shows that international and domestic acquisitions differ concerning both strategic and cultural fit. Second, the findings highlight the importance of acculturation and cultural integration in determining post-acquisition outcomes. Finally, the study uncovers several impact mechanisms that shed light to the contradictory results related to cultural differences in previous research.

The Impact of Readily Detected- and Underlying Attributes on Social Integration in Cross-Cultural Settings

The benefits and drawbacks of homogeneity and heterogeneity have been debated at length. Whereas some researchers assert that heterogeneity is beneficial for groups that are engaged in complex problem solving, the other researchers emphasize the potential costs associated with diversity. The inconsistency is a result of the incomplete measurement of diversity and focus one or two types of diversity. Most research concentrates on the readily detected/visible characteristics, making the assumption that such characteristics are related to underlying attributes (e.g., attitudes and values). In many cases, the demographic characteristics do not covary perfectly with the psychological attributes. Thus both types of attributes need to be utilized to fully understand the impact of diversity. The present research with four essays takes into account both types of attributes and tests their impact on social integration in cross-cultural settings. The results indicate that: (1) readily detectable- and underlying attributes are not related; (2) diversity has overall a negative impact on social integration; (3) socio-cultural context potentially influences the salience of diversity; and (4) diversity and social integration influences the formation of social cognition in form of transactive memory directories. The limits of research and managerial implications are discussed.