A Cointegration Approach to Topics in Empirical Macroeconomics (summary section only)

Mikael Juselius’ doctoral dissertation covers a range of significant issues in modern macroeconomics by empirically testing a number of important theoretical hypotheses. The first essay presents indirect evidence within the framework of the cointegrated VAR model on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor by using Finnish manufacturing data. Instead of estimating the elasticity of substitution by using the first order conditions, he develops a new approach that utilizes a CES production function in a model with a 3-stage decision process: investment in the long run, wage bargaining in the medium run and price and employment decisions in the short run. He estimates the elasticity of substitution to be below one. The second essay tests the restrictions implied by the core equations of the New Keynesian Model (NKM) in a vector autoregressive model (VAR) by using both Euro area and U.S. data. Both the new Keynesian Phillips curve and the aggregate demand curve are estimated and tested. The restrictions implied by the core equations of the NKM are rejected on both U.S. and Euro area data. These results are important for further research. The third essay is methodologically similar to essay 2, but it concentrates on Finnish macro data by adopting a theoretical framework of an open economy. Juselius’ results suggests that the open economy NKM framework is too stylized to provide an adequate explanation for Finnish inflation. The final essay provides a macroeconometric model of Finnish inflation and associated explanatory variables and it estimates the relative importance of different inflation theories. His main finding is that Finnish inflation is primarily determined by excess demand in the product market and by changes in the long-term interest rate. This study is part of the research agenda carried out by the Research Unit of Economic Structure and Growth (RUESG). The aim of RUESG it to conduct theoretical and empirical research with respect to important issues in industrial economics, real option theory, game theory, organization theory, theory of financial systems as well as to study problems in labor markets, macroeconomics, natural resources, taxation and time series econometrics. RUESG was established at the beginning of 1995 and is one of the National Centers of Excellence in research selected by the Academy of Finland. It is financed jointly by the Academy of Finland, the University of Helsinki, the Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation, Bank of Finland and the Nokia Group. This support is gratefully acknowledged.

Perinatal mortality and maternal health in rural China

Background and context Since the economic reforms of 1978, China has been acclaimed as a remarkable economy, achieving 9% annual growth per head for more than 25 years. However, China's health sector has not fared well. The population health gains slowed down and health disparities increased. In the field of health and health care, significant progress in maternal care has been achieved. However, there still remain important disparities between the urban and rural areas and among the rural areas in terms of economic development. The excess female infant deaths and the rapidly increasing sex ratio at birth in the last decade aroused serious concerns among policy makers and scholars. Decentralization of the government administration and health sector reform impacts maternal care. Many studies using census data have been conducted to explore the determinants of a high sex ratio at birth, but no agreement has been so far reached on the possible contributing factors. No study using family planning system data has been conducted to explore perinatal mortality and sex ratio at birth and only few studies have examined the impact of the decentralization of government and health sector reforms on the provision and organization of maternal care in rural China. Objectives The general objective of this study was to investigate the state of perinatal health and maternal care and their determinants in rural China under the historic context of major socioeconomic reforms and the one child family planning policy. The specific objectives of the study included: 1) to study pregnancy outcomes and perinatal health and their correlates in a rural Chinese county; 2) to examine the issue of sex ratio at birth and its determinants in a rural Chinese county; 3) to explore the patterns of provision, utilization, and content of maternal care in a rural Chinese county; 4) to investigate the changes in the use of maternal care in China from 1991 to 2003. Materials and Methods This study is based on a project for evaluating the prenatal care programme in Dingyuan county in 1999-2003, Anhui province, China and a nationwide household health survey to describe the changes in maternal care utilization. The approaches used included a retrospective cohort study, cross sectional interview surveys, informant interviews, observations and the use of statistical data. The data sources included the following: 1) A cohort of pregnant women followed from pregnancy up to 7 days after birth in 20 townships in the study county, collecting information on pregnancy outcomes using family planning records; 2) A questionnaire interview survey given to women who gave birth between 2001 and 2003; 3) Various statistical and informant surveys data collected from the study county; 4) Three national household health interview survey data sets (1993-2003) were utilized, and reanalyzed to described the changes in maternity care utilization. Relative risks (RR) and their confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for comparison between parity, approval status, infant sex and township groups. The chi-square test was used to analyse the disparity of use of maternal care between and within urban and rural areas and its trend across the years in China. Logistic regression was used to analyse the factors associated with hospital delivery in rural areas. Results There were 3697 pregnancies in the study cohort, resulting in 3092 live births in a total population of 299463 in the 20 study townships during 1999-2000. The average age at pregnancy in the cohort was 25.9 years. Of the women, 61% were childless, 38% already had one child and 0.3% had two children before the current pregnancy. About 90% of approved pregnancies ended in a live birth while 73% of the unapproved ones were aborted. The perinatal mortality rate was 69 per thousand births. If the 30 induced abortions in which the gestational age was more than 28 weeks had been counted as perinatal deaths, the perinatal mortality rate would have been as high as 78 per thousand. The perinatal mortality rate was negatively associated with the wealth of the township. Approximately two thirds of the perinatal deaths occurred in the early neonatal period. Both the still birth rate and the early neonatal death rate increased with parity. The risk of a stillbirth in a second pregnancy was almost four times that for a first pregnancy, while the risk of early neonatal deaths doubled. The early neonatal mortality rate was twice as high for female as for male infants. The sex difference in the early neonatal mortality rate was mainly attributable to mortality in second births. The male early neonatal mortality rate was not affected by parity, while the female early neonatal mortality rate increased dramatically with parity: it was about six times higher for second births than for first births. About 82% early neonatal deaths happened within 24 hours after birth, and during that time, girls were almost three times more likely to die than boys. The death rate of females on the day of birth increased much more sharply with parity than that of males. The total sex ratio at birth of 3697 registered pregnancies was 152 males to 100 females, with 118 and 287 in first and second pregnancies, respectively. Among unapproved pregnancies, there were almost 5 live-born boys for each girl. Most prenatal and delivery care was to be taken care of in township hospitals. At the village level, there were small private clinics. There was no limitation period for the provision of prenatal and postnatal care by private practitioners. They were not permitted to provide delivery care by the county health bureau, but as some 12% of all births occurred either at home or at private clinics; some village health workers might have been involved. The county level hospitals served as the referral centers for the township hospitals in the county. However, there was no formal regulation or guideline on how the referral system should work. Whether or not a woman was referred to a higher level hospital depended on the individual midwife's professional judgment and on the clients' compliance. The county health bureau had little power over township hospitals, because township hospitals had in the decentralization process become directly accountable to the township government. In the township and county hospitals only 10-20% of the recurrent costs were funded by local government (the township hospital was funded by the township government and the county hospital was funded by the county government) and the hospitals collected user fees to balance their budgets. Also the staff salaries depended on fee incomes by the hospital. The hospitals could define the user charges themselves. Prenatal care consultations were however free in most township hospitals. None of the midwives made postnatal home visits, because of low profit of these services. The three national household health survey data showed that the proportion of women receiving their first prenatal visit within 12 weeks increased greatly from the early to middle 1990s in all areas except for large cities. The increase was much larger in the rural areas, reducing the urban-rural difference from more than 4 times to about 1.4 times. The proportion of women that received antenatal care visits meeting the Ministry of Health s standard (at least 5 times) in the rural areas increased sharply from 12% in 1991-1993 to 36% in 2001-2003. In rural areas, the proportion increase was much faster in less developed areas than in developed areas. The hospital delivery rate increased slightly from 90% to 94% in urban areas while the proportion increased from 27% to 69% in rural areas. The fastest change was found to be in type 4 rural areas, where the utilization even quadrupled. The overall difference between rural and urban areas was substantially narrowed over the period. Multiple logistic regression analysis shows that time periods, residency in rural or urban areas, income levels, age group, education levels, delivery history, occupation, health insurance and distance from the nearest health care facilities were significantly associated with hospital delivery rates. Conclusions 1. Perinatal mortality in this study was much higher than that for urban areas as well as any reported rate from specific studies in rural areas of China. Previous studies in which calculations of infant mortality were not based on epidemiological surveys have been shown to underestimate the rates by more than 50%. 2. Routine statistics collected by the Chinese family planning system proved to be a reliable data source for studying perinatal health, including still births, neonatal deaths, sex ratio at birth and among newborns. National Household Health Survey data proved to be a useful and reliable data source for studying population health and health services. Prior to this research there were few studies in these areas available to international audiences. 3.Though perinatal mortality rate was negatively associated with the level of township economic development, the excess female early neonatal mortality rate contributed much more to high perinatal mortality rate than economic factors. This was likely a result of the role of the family planning policy and the traditional preferences for sons, which leads to lethal neglect of female newborns and high perinatal mortality. 4. The selective abortions of female foetuses were likely to contribute most to the high sex ratio at birth. The underreporting of female births seemed to have played a secondary role. The higher early neonatal mortality rate in second-born as compared to first-born children, particularly in females, may indicate that neglect or poorer care of female newborn infants also contributes to the high sex ratio at birth or among newborns. Existing family planning policy proved not to effectively control the steadily increased birth sex ratio. 5. The rural-urban gap in service utilization was on average significantly narrowed in terms of maternal healthcare in China from 1991 to 2003. This demonstrates that significant achievements in reducing inequities can be made through a combination of socio-economic development and targeted investments in improving health services, including infrastructure, staff capacities, and subsidies to reduce the costs of service utilization for the poorest. However, the huge gap which persisted among cities of different size and within different types of rural areas indicated the need for further efforts to support the poorest areas. 6. Hospital delivery care in the study county was better accepted by women because most of women think delivery care was very important while prenatal and postnatal care were not. Hospital delivery care was more systematically provided and promoted than prenatal and postnatal care by township hospital in the study area. The reliance of hospital staff income on user fees gave the hospitals an incentive to put more emphasis on revenue generating activities such as delivery care instead of prenatal and postnatal care, since delivery care generated much profits than prenatal and postnatal care . Recommendations 1. It is essential for the central government to re-assess and modify existing family planning policies. In order to keep national sex balance, the existing practice of one couple one child in urban areas and at-least-one-son a couple in rural areas should be gradually changed to a two-children-a-couple policy throughout the country. The government should establish a favourable social security policy for couples, especially for rural couples who have only daughters, with particular emphasis on their pension and medical care insurance, combined with an educational campaign for equal rights for boys and girls in society. 2. There is currently no routine vital-statistics registration system in rural China. Using the findings of this study, the central government could set up a routine vital-statistics registration system using family planning routine work records, which could be used by policy makers and researchers. 3. It is possible for the central and provincial government to invest more in the less developed and poor rural areas to increase the access of pregnant women in these areas to maternal care services. Central government together with local government should gradually provide free maternal care including prenatal and postnatal as well as delivery care to the women in poor and less developed rural areas. 4. Future research could be done to explore if county and the township level health care sector and the family planning system could be merged to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of maternal and child care. 5. Future research could be done to explore the relative contribution of maternal care, economic development and family planning policy on perinatal and child health using prospective cohort studies and community based randomized trials. Key words: perinatal health, perinatal mortality, stillbirth, neonatal death, sex selective abortion, sex ratio at birth, family planning, son preference, maternal care, prenatal care, postnatal care, equity, China

Ratkaiseeko raha? : Tulospalkkiojärjestelmään ja työympäristöön liittyvien kokemusten yhteys esimiesten työtyytyväisyyteen ja työmotivaatioon

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between merit pay system and work environment and foremen´s work satisfaction and work motivation. There has been a lot of investigation on rewarding. Less research has been done on previous surveys among the merit pay systems and motivation investigations. According to former surveys, rewarding systems cannot be released from its context. Therefore this survey expanded to deal with work environment. It was also essential to investigate different dimensions of extrinsic and intrinsic motivation and equity of rewarding. Investigation or work motivation and work satisfaction was challenging because both of these concepts have been investigated under quite traditional frame of reference of work motivation theories. In some surveys, the concepts have not been even separated or they have been used even as synonyms. The data were collected with the 193 foremen working in the profit centers of the different chains of the company in the field of retail trade. The questions were: Are the experiences of merit pay system and work environment related to foremen´s work satisfaction and work motivation? Are the backround variables related to foremen´s work satisfaction and work motivation? The data collection was carried out by an electronic inquiry during May 2010. 137 replied from foremen working under merit pay system. The research material was analyzed with PASW-software. Various analyzing methods were used: factor analyses, regression analyses and group of different parametric and non-parametric analyses. In contrast to theoretical framework in the factor analyses work satisfaction and work motivation clustered into the same dimension. As a main result the atmosphere, possibilities to influence and the atmosphere of leading were strongly positively related to foremen´s work satisfaction and work motivation. According to regression analyses these factors were able to explain 55 % of the foremen´s work satisfaction and work motivation. The best explanatory variable was atmosphere. Instead, the backround variables (age, sex, working years, group of profession, education) were not associated with work satisfaction and work motivation.

Lapsen vastuullistaminen päiväkodin perushoitotilanteissa

The aim of this study was to investigate the kindergarten s basic care situations and to find the harmony conditions. Target of the study was to update the pedagogy of the basic care situation and to increase the common welfare. This study was based on the theory of Children´s Agentive Perception (2007) by Jyrki Reunamo and his workgroup. The research material was collected from the Keski-Uusimaa and Hämeenlinna in year 2010. The material of the study has been used in many ways by using both quantitative and qualitative methods.The research material includes: learning environment evaluations made by kindergarten s teachers, children s observations and their interviews. This study suits well with the recent studies of children´s participation (for example VKKmetro 2010). It encourage the professional workers in the kindergarten to participate children more than before in basic care situations define the new way for the children s accountability. Based on the study results the children´s accountability will calm the basic care situations. This study will give more information about different children´s agentive perception. It will reflect on children s individual accountability in kindergarden s basic care situations.

Oral health, smoking and adolescence

The present cross-sectional study examined the effect of smoking on oral health in a birth cohort of 15 to 16-year-old Finnish adolescents. The hypothesis was that oral health parameters were poorer among smoking than non-smoking subjects and that a tobacco intervention program could be effective among the adolescents. The study was conducted in the Kotka Health Center, Kotka, Finland. Altogether 501 out of 545 subjects (15- to 16-year-old boys [n = 258] and girls [n = 243]) were clinically examined in 2004 and 2005. The sample frame was a birth cohort of all subjects in 1989 and 1990, living in Kotka. A structured questionnaire was also filled in by the participants to record their general health and health habits, such as smoking, tooth brushing, and medication used. The participants were classified into nonsmokers, current smokers, and former smokers. Subgingival pooled plaque samples were taken and stimulated salivary samples were also collected. The subjects were asked from which of seven professional groups (doctors, school nurses, dental nurses, general nurses, dentists, teachers and media professionals) they would prefer to receive information about tobacco. The two most popular groups they picked up were dentists and school nurses. Current smokers (n=127) were then randomly assigned into three groups: the dentist group (n =44), the school-nurse group (n =42), and the control group (n =39). The intervention was based on a national recommendation of evidence based guidelines by The Finnish Medical Society Duodecim ( 5A counseling system). Two months after the intervention, a second questionnaire was sent to the smokers in the intervention groups. Smoking cessation, smoking quantity per week, and self-rated addiction for smoking (SRA) were recorded. The results were analyzed using the R-statistical program. The results showed that 15% of the subjects had periodontitis. Smokers (25%) had more periodontitis than non-smokers (66%) (p < 0.001). Smoking boys (24%) also had more caries lesions than non-smokers (69%) (p < 0.001), and they brushed their teeth less frequently than non-smokers. Smoking significantly impaired periodontal health of the subjects, even when the confounding effects of plaque and tooth brushing were adjusted. Smoking pack-years, intensified the effects of smoking. Periodontal bacteria Prevotella nigrescens, Prevotella intermedia, Tannerella forsythia and Treponema denticola were more frequently detected among the smokers than non-smokers, especially among smoking girls. Smoking significantly decreased the values of both the salivary periodontal biomarkers MMP-8 (p=0.04) and PMN elastase (p=0.02) in boys. The effect was strengthened by pack years of smoking (MMP-8 p=0.04; elastase p0.01). Of those who participated in the intervention, 19 % quit smoking. The key factors associated with smoking cessation were best friend`s influence, nicotine dependence and diurnal type. When the best friend was not a smoker, the risk ratio (RR) of quit smoking after the intervention was 7.0 (Cl 95% 4.6 10.7). Of the diurnal types, the morning people seemed to be more likely to quit (RR 2.2 [Cl 95% 1.4 3.6]). Nicotine dependence also elicited an opposite effect: those who scored between 3 and 5 dependence scores were less likely to quit. In conclusion, smoking appears to be a major etiological risk factor for oral health. However, the early signs of periodontal disease were mild in the subjects studied. Based on the opinions of the adolescent s, dental professionals may have a key position in their smoking cessation. The harmful effects of smoking on oral health could be used in counselling. Best friend`s influence, nicotine dependence and diurnal type, all factors associated with smoking cessation, should be taken more carefully into account in the prevention programs for adolescents.

Operationalizing Supply Chain vs. Supply Chain Competion

Competition is an immensely important area of study in economic theory, business and strategy. It is known to be vital in meeting consumers’ growing expectations, stimulating increase in the size of the market, pushing innovation, reducing cost and consequently generating better value for end users, among other things. Having said that, it is important to recognize that supply chains, as we know it, has changed the way companies deal with each other both in confrontational or conciliatory terms. As such, with the rise of global markets and outsourcing destinations, increased technological development in transportation, communication and telecommunications has meant that geographical barriers of distance with regards to competition are a thing of the past in an increasingly flat world. Even though the dominant articulation of competition within management and business literature rests mostly within economic competition theory, this thesis draws attention to the implicit shift in the recognition of other forms of competition in today’s business environment, especially those involving supply chain structures. Thus, there is popular agreement within a broad business arena that competition between companies is set to take place along their supply chains. Hence, management’s attention has been focused on how supply chains could become more aggressive making each firm in its supply chain more efficient. However, there is much disagreement on the mechanism through which such competition pitching supply chain against supply chain will take place. The purpose of this thesis therefore, is to develop and conceptualize the notion of supply chain vs. supply chain competition, within the discipline of supply chain management. The thesis proposes that competition between supply chains may be carried forward via the use of competition theories that emphasize interaction and dimensionality, hence, encountering friction from a number of sources in their search for critical resources and services. The thesis demonstrates how supply chain vs. supply chain competition may be carried out theoretically, using generated data for illustration, and practically using logistics centers as a way to provide a link between theory and corresponding practice of this evolving competition mode. The thesis concludes that supply chain vs. supply chain competition, no matter the conceptualization taken, is complex, novel and can be very easily distorted and abused. It therefore calls for the joint development of regulatory measures by practitioners and policymakers alike, to guide this developing mode of competition.

Helsingin kävelykeskustan suunnittelu ydinkeskustan kadunvarsiliikeyrittäjien näkökulmasta

Aiempien tutkimusten mukaan keskustayrittäjien kielteinen asenne on olennaisesti vaikeuttanut kävelykatujen toteuttamista kaupunkikeskustoissa. Yrittäjät pelkäävät ostokykyisten asiakkaiden kaikkoavan ja liikevaihtonsa pienenevän kävelykeskustauudistusten myötä. Yrittäjien kielteiset asenteet ovat usein myös painottuneet suuriin kaupunkeihin. Etenkin ydinkeskustassa sijaitsevat kadunvarsiliikeyrittäjät ovat kokeneet kävelykadut ongelmiksi. Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena on selvittää, mikä on ydinkeskustan kadunvarsiliikeyrittäjien näkemys Helsingin kävelykeskustan suunnittelusta, millaisena ydinkeskustan kadunvarsiliikeyrittäjät näkevät sijaintikatunsa kävelykeskustan suunnittelupäämäärien kautta tarkasteltuna, ja onko kävelykatuyrittäjien ja kävelykatujen ulkopuolella sijaitsevien yrittäjien näkemysten välillä eroja. Taustana tälle tarkastellaan Helsingin kävelykeskustaa pohjoismaisessa kontekstissa, ja käydään läpi Helsingin kävelykeskustan suunnittelun ja rakentumisen historiaa ja päämääriä. Tutkimuksen aineisto koostuu Helsingin ydinkeskustan kadunvarsiliikeyrittäjille tehdystä kyselystä, kävelykeskustoihin liittyvistä tutkimuksista ja selvityksistä, kaupunkisuunnitteluun ja -tutkimukseen liittyvästä tutkimuskirjallisuudesta, sanomalehtiartikkeleista, ydinkeskustassa tehdystä empiirisestä havainnoinnista ja kahdesta asiantuntijahaastattelusta. Kyselyaineistoa analysoidaan tutkimuksessa tilastollisten menetelmien avulla. Helsingin kävelykeskustan suunnittelu ja rakentuminen on ollut pitkällinen prosessi. Vuoden 1 989 kävelykeskustan periaatesuunnitelmasta on konkretisoitunut Kluuvikatu ja Mikonkatu. Keskustatunnelihanke on vaakalaudalla, minkä vuoksi kävelykeskustan uuden periaatesuunnitelman toteutuminen on epävarmaa. Kävelykeskustan rakentuminen kuitenkin etenee. Keskuskatu ja Kalevankadun itäpää muutetaan kävelykaduiksi ja ydinkeskustan jalankulkuympäristöä parannetaan ja kehitetään jatkuvasti. Tällä hetkellä kävelykeskustan suunnittelun painopiste on Aleksanterinkadun kortteleiden ympäristössä, ja suunnittelun tärkeimpiä päämääriä ovat viihtyisyyden, turvallisuuden, kaupallisen vetovoimaisuuden ja saavutettavuuden parantaminen. Kyselyyn vastanneiden yrittäjien mielestä kävelykeskustaa tulisi laajentaa, sillä laajemman kävelykeskustan nähdään kasvattavan liikevaihtoa ja lisäävän yleisesti ydinkeskustan vetovoimaa. Kävelykatuyrittäjien näkemykset kävelykeskustan suunnittelusta ja kehittämisestä olivat kävelykatujen ulkopuolisia yrittäjiä kielteisempiä. Em. yrittäjien asenteisiin vaikuttavat oletettavasti tutkituilla kävelykaduilla ilmenneet ongelmat. Kyse voi myös olla siitä, että uusien kävelykatujen rakentaminen haittaa kävelykatujen saavutettavuutta. Kadunvarsiliikeyrittäjien yleinen suhtautuminen kävelykeskustan kehittämiseen ja suunnittelupäämääriin on kuitenkin pääosin positiivista. Jatkotutkimuksen kannalta olisi kiinnostavaa selvittää, onko muiden ydinkeskustassa toimivien yritysten, kuten esimerkiksi tavaratalojen ja kauppakeskusten johdon ja kiinteistösijoittajien ja -omistajien suhtautuminen kävelykeskustan kehittämiseen myös positiivista. Tämän lisäksi olisi mielenkiintoista selvittää keskustan käyttäjien ja keskustassa asuvien asenteita kävelykeskustan suunnitteluun, ja verrata tuloksia tässä tutkimuksessa selvitettyihin kadunvarsiliikeyrittäjien näkemyksiin.

Päiväkodin varhaiskasvatussuunnitelma ja johtajuus : Kolmen kunnan päiväkodinjohtajien käsityksiä päiväkodin varhaiskasvatussuunnitelmasta

The research goal is to describe curriculas and leadership in day-care centers. The day-care centers needed to write their own curriculas, when Centre for Research and Development of Welfare and Health published The National Curriculum Guidelines on Early Childhood Education and Care in Finland (ECEC) in 2003. The study tries to review day-care center managers views of day-care centers plans for early childhood education and care in three municipals. The research data was collected in the begining of 2008. In previous researches it was found out that co-operation and employees knowledge of education in day-care centers will define the reality (Nivala). Furthermore sosial reality will be based on discussions (Berger JA Luckmann). The subject was approached by one-way analysis of variance. Views of the day-care center managers was compared to the written plans for early childhood education, it s effect on day-care center s early childhood education and evaluation. Besides day-care center managers views were compared to early childhood education. Day care center manager s (N=40) answers were collected to a questionnaire, where there were mainly structured and some open end questions. Data was analysed with PASW Statistics 17 program. The research results showed that the day-care center managers views of the prosess of writing the plans for early childhood education in the day-care centers varied from each other. In addition there were differences in views how the plan of day-care center s early childhood education effected daily in their early childhood education. Furthermore the results showed that there were differenties in evaluating day-care center s education. Whereas the views of early childhood education were not different between the day-care managers in the three municipals.