Adjuvant Arteriovenous Fistula for Infrapopliteal Bypass Patency

A lack of suitable venous graft material or poor outflow is an increasingly encountered situation in peripheral vascular surgery. Prosthetic grafts have clearly worse patency than vein grafts in femorodistal bypass surgery. The use of an adjuvant arteriovenous fistula (av-fistula) at the distal anastomosis has been postulated to improve the flow and thus increase prosthetic graft patency. In theory the adjuvant fistula might have the same effect in a compromised outflow venous bypass. A free flap transfer also augments graft flow and may have a positive effect on an ischaemic limb. The aim of this study was to evaluate the possible benefit of an adjuvant av-fistula and an internal av-fistula within a free flap transfer on the patency and outcome of an infrapopliteal bypass. The effect of the av-fistula on bypass haemodynamics was also assessed along with possible adverse effects. Patients and methods: 1. A prospective randomised multicentre trial comprised 59 patients with critical leg ischaemia and no suitable veins for grafting. Femorocrural polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) bypasses with a distal vein cuff, with or without an adjuvant av-fistula, were performed. The outcome was assessed according to graft patency and leg salvage. 2. Haemodynamic measurements were performed to a total of 50 patients from Study I with a prolonged follow-up. 3. Nine critically ischaemic limbs were treated with a modified radial forearm flap transfer in combination with a femorodistal bypass operation. An internal av-fistula was created within the free flap transfer to increase flap artery and bypass graft flow. 4. The effect of a previous free flap transfer on bypass haemodynamics was studied in a case report. 5. In a retrospective multicentre case-control study, 77 infrapopliteal vein bypasses with an adjuvant av-fistula were compared with matched controls without a fistula. The outcome and haemodynamics of the bypasses were recorded. Main results: 1. The groups with and without the av-fistula did not differ as regards prosthetic graft patency or leg salvage. 2. The intra- and postoperative prosthetic graft flow was significantly increased in the patients with the av-fistula. However, this increase did not improve patency. There was no difference in patency between the groups, even in the extended follow-up. 3. The vein graft flow increased significantly after the anastomosis of the radial forearm flap with an internal av-fistula. 4. A previously performed free flap transfer significantly augmented the flow of a poor outflow femoropedal bypass graft. 5. The adjuvant av-fistula increased the venous infrapopliteal bypass flow significantly. The increased flow did not, however, lead to improved graft patency or leg salvage. Conclusion: An adjuvant av-fistula does not improve the patency of a femorocrural PTFE bypass with a distal vein cuff despite the fact that the flow values increased both in the intraoperative measurements and during the immediate postoperative surveillance. The adjuvant av-fistula increased graft flow significantly also in a poor outflow venous bypass, but regardless of this the outcome was no improved. The adjuvant av-fistula rarely caused adverse effects. In a group of diabetic patients, the flow in a vascular bypass graft was augmented by an internal av-fistula within a radial forearm flap and similarly in a patient with a previous free flap transfer, a high intraoperative graft flow was achieved due to the free flap shunt effect.

Electrocardiographic repolarization variables in detecting myocardial infarction and ischemic injury : From body surface potential mapping to a single lead

The aim of the studies was to improve the diagnostic capability of electrocardiography (ECG) in detecting myocardial ischemic injury with a future goal of an automatic screening and monitoring method for ischemic heart disease. The method of choice was body surface potential mapping (BSPM), containing numerous leads, with intention to find the optimal recording sites and optimal ECG variables for ischemia and myocardial infarction (MI) diagnostics. The studies included 144 patients with prior MI, 79 patients with evolving ischemia, 42 patients with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), and 84 healthy controls. Study I examined the depolarization wave in prior MI with respect to MI location. Studies II-V examined the depolarization and repolarization waves in prior MI detection with respect to the Minnesota code, Q-wave status, and study V also with respect to MI location. In study VI the depolarization and repolarization variables were examined in 79 patients in the face of evolving myocardial ischemia and ischemic injury. When analyzed from a single lead at any recording site the results revealed superiority of the repolarization variables over the depolarization variables and over the conventional 12-lead ECG methods, both in the detection of prior MI and evolving ischemic injury. The QT integral, covering both depolarization and repolarization, appeared indifferent to the Q-wave status, the time elapsed from MI, or the MI or ischemia location. In the face of evolving ischemic injury the performance of the QT integral was not hampered even by underlying LVH. The examined depolarization and repolarization variables were effective when recorded in a single site, in contrast to the conventional 12-lead ECG criteria. The inverse spatial correlation of the depolarization and depolarization waves in myocardial ischemia and injury could be reduced into the QT integral variable recorded in a single site on the left flank. In conclusion, the QT integral variable, detectable in a single lead, with optimal recording site on the left flank, was able to detect prior MI and evolving ischemic injury more effectively than the conventional ECG markers. The QT integral, in a single-lead or a small number of leads, offers potential for automated screening of ischemic heart disease, acute ischemia monitoring and therapeutic decision-guiding as well as risk stratification.

Dynamics of free-running, pump-modulated and coupled semiconductor and solid-state lasers

The output of a laser is a high frequency propagating electromagnetic field with superior coherence and brightness compared to that emitted by thermal sources. A multitude of different types of lasers exist, which also translates into large differences in the properties of their output. Moreover, the characteristics of the electromagnetic field emitted by a laser can be influenced from the outside, e.g., by injecting an external optical field or by optical feedback. In the case of free-running solitary class-B lasers, such as semiconductor and Nd:YVO4 solid-state lasers, the phase space is two-dimensional, the dynamical variables being the population inversion and the amplitude of the electromagnetic field. The two-dimensional structure of the phase space means that no complex dynamics can be found. If a class-B laser is perturbed from its steady state, then the steady state is restored after a short transient. However, as discussed in part (i) of this Thesis, the static properties of class-B lasers, as well as their artificially or noise induced dynamics around the steady state, can be experimentally studied in order to gain insight on laser behaviour, and to determine model parameters that are not known ab initio. In this Thesis particular attention is given to the linewidth enhancement factor, which describes the coupling between the gain and the refractive index in the active material. A highly desirable attribute of an oscillator is stability, both in frequency and amplitude. Nowadays, however, instabilities in coupled lasers have become an active area of research motivated not only by the interesting complex nonlinear dynamics but also by potential applications. In part (ii) of this Thesis the complex dynamics of unidirectionally coupled, i.e., optically injected, class-B lasers is investigated. An injected optical field increases the dimensionality of the phase space to three by turning the phase of the electromagnetic field into an important variable. This has a radical effect on laser behaviour, since very complex dynamics, including chaos, can be found in a nonlinear system with three degrees of freedom. The output of the injected laser can be controlled in experiments by varying the injection rate and the frequency of the injected light. In this Thesis the dynamics of unidirectionally coupled semiconductor and Nd:YVO4 solid-state lasers is studied numerically and experimentally.

The effects of the 2004 reduction in the price of alcohol on alcohol-related harm in Finland : A natural experiment based on register data

Changes in alcohol pricing have been documented as inversely associated with changes in consumption and alcohol-related problems. Evidence of the association between price changes and health problems is nevertheless patchy and is based to a large extent on cross-sectional state-level data, or time series of such cross-sectional analyses. Natural experimental studies have been called for. There was a substantial reduction in the price of alcohol in Finland in 2004 due to a reduction in alcohol taxes of one third, on average, and the abolition of duty-free allowances for travellers from the EU. These changes in the Finnish alcohol policy could be considered a natural experiment, which offered a good opportunity to study what happens with regard to alcohol-related problems when prices go down. The present study investigated the effects of this reduction in alcohol prices on (1) alcohol-related and all-cause mortality, and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, (2) alcohol-related morbidity in terms of hospitalisation, (3) socioeconomic differentials in alcohol-related mortality, and (4) small-area differences in interpersonal violence in the Helsinki Metropolitan area. Differential trends in alcohol-related mortality prior to the price reduction were also analysed. A variety of population-based register data was used in the study. Time-series intervention analysis modelling was applied to monthly aggregations of deaths and hospitalisation for the period 1996-2006. These and other mortality analyses were carried out for men and women aged 15 years and over. Socioeconomic differentials in alcohol-related mortality were assessed on a before/after basis, mortality being followed up in 2001-2003 (before the price reduction) and 2004-2005 (after). Alcohol-related mortality was defined in all the studies on mortality on the basis of information on both underlying and contributory causes of death. Hospitalisation related to alcohol meant that there was a reference to alcohol in the primary diagnosis. Data on interpersonal violence was gathered from 86 administrative small-areas in the Helsinki Metropolitan area and was also assessed on a before/after basis followed up in 2002-2003 and 2004-2005. The statistical methods employed to analyse these data sets included time-series analysis, and Poisson and linear regression. The results of the study indicate that alcohol-related deaths increased substantially among men aged 40-69 years and among women aged 50-69 after the price reduction when trends and seasonal variation were taken into account. The increase was mainly attributable to chronic causes, particularly liver diseases. Mortality due to cardiovascular diseases and all-cause mortality, on the other hand, decreased considerably among the-over-69-year-olds. The increase in alcohol-related mortality in absolute terms among the 30-59-year-olds was largest among the unemployed and early-age pensioners, and those with a low level of education, social class or income. The relative differences in change between the education and social class subgroups were small. The employed and those under the age of 35 did not suffer from increased alcohol-related mortality in the two years following the price reduction. The gap between the age and education groups, which was substantial in the 1980s, thus further broadened. With regard to alcohol-related hospitalisation, there was an increase in both chronic and acute causes among men under the age of 70, and among women in the 50-69-year age group when trends and seasonal variation were taken into account. Alcohol dependence and other alcohol-related mental and behavioural disorders were the largest category in both the total number of chronic hospitalisation and in the increase. There was no increase in the rate of interpersonal violence in the Helsinki Metropolitan area, and even a decrease in domestic violence. There was a significant relationship between the measures of social disadvantage on the area level and interpersonal violence, although the differences in the effects of the price reduction between the different areas were small. The findings of the present study suggest that that a reduction in alcohol prices may lead to a substantial increase in alcohol-related mortality and morbidity. However, large population group differences were observed regarding responsiveness to the price changes. In particular, the less privileged, such as the unemployed, were most sensitive. In contrast, at least in the Finnish context, the younger generations and the employed do not appear to be adversely affected, and those in the older age groups may even benefit from cheaper alcohol in terms of decreased rates of CVD mortality. The results also suggest that reductions in alcohol prices do not necessarily affect interpersonal violence. The population group differences in the effects of the price changes on alcohol-related harm should be acknowledged, and therefore the policy actions should focus on the population subgroups that are primarily responsive to the price reduction.

Very Low Birth Weight Infants as Young Adults : Focus on aspects of cognition, behavior and sleep

Major advances in the treatment of preterm infants have occurred during the last three decades. Survival rates have increased, and the first generations of preterm infants born at very low birth weight (VLBW; less than 1500 g) who profited from modern neonatal intensive care are now in young adulthood. The literature shows that VLBW children achieve on average lower scores on cognitive tests, even after exclusion of individuals with obvious neurosensory deficits. Evidence also exists for an increased risk in VLBW children for various neuropsychiatric disorders such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and related behavioral symptoms. Up till now, studies extending into adulthood are sparse, and it remains to be seen whether these problems persist into adulthood. The aim of this thesis was to study ADHD-related symptoms and cognitive and executive functioning in young adults born at VLBW. In addition, we aimed to study sleep disturbances, known to adversely affect both cognition and attention. We hypothesized that preterm birth at VLBW interferes with early brain development in a way that alters the neuropsychological phenotype; this may manifest itself as ADHD symptoms and impaired cognitive abilities in young adulthood. In this cohort study from a geographically defined region, we studied 166 VLBW adults and 172 term-born controls born from 1978 through 1985. At ages 18 to 27 years, the study participants took part in a clinic study during which their physical and psychological health was assessed in detail. Three years later, 213 of these individuals participated in a follow-up. The current study is part of a larger research project (The Helsinki Study of Very Low Birth Weight Adults), and the measurements of interest for this particular study include the following: 1) The Adult Problem Questionnaire (APQ), a self-rating scale of ADHD-related symptoms in adults; 2) A computerized cognitive test battery designed for population studies (CogState®) which measures core cognitive abilities such as reaction time, working memory, and visual learning; 3) Sleep assessment by actigraphy, the Basic Nordic Sleep Questionnaire, and the Morningness-Eveningness Questionnaire. Actigraphs are wrist-worn accelerometers that separate sleep from wakefulness by registering body movements. Contrary to expectations, VLBW adults as a group reported no more ADHD-related behavioral symptoms than did controls. Further subdivision of the VLBW group into SGA (small for gestational age) and AGA (appropriate for gestational age) subgroups, however, revealed more symptoms on ADHD subscales pertaining to executive dysfunction and emotional instability among those born SGA. Thus, it seems that intrauterine growth retardation (for which SGA served as a proxy) is a more essential predictor for self-perceived ADHD symptoms in adulthood than is VLBW birth as such. In line with observations from other cohorts, the VLBW adults reported less risk-taking behavior in terms of substance use (alcohol, smoking, and recreational drugs), a finding reassuring for the VLBW individuals and their families. On the cognitive test, VLBW adults free from neurosensory deficits had longer reaction times than did term-born peers on all tasks included in the test battery, and lower accuracy on the learning task, with no discernible effect of SGA status over and above the effect of VLBW. Altogether, on a group level, even high-functioning VLBW adults show subtle deficits in psychomotor processing speed, visual working memory, and learning abilities. The sleep studies provided no evidence for differences in sleep quality or duration between the two groups. The VLBW adults were, however, at more than two-fold higher risk for sleep-disordered breathing (in terms of chronic snoring). Given the link between sleep-disordered breathing and health sequelae, these results suggest that VLBW individuals may benefit from an increased awareness among clinicians of this potential problem area. An unexpected finding from the sleep studies was the suggestion of an advanced sleep phase: The VLBW adults went to bed earlier according to the actigraphy registrations and also reported earlier wake-up times on the questionnaire. In further study of this issue in conjunction with the follow-up three years later, the VLBW group reported higher levels of morningness propensity, further corroborating the preliminary findings of an advanced sleep phase. Although the clinical implications are not entirely clear, the issue may be worth further study, since circadian rhythms are closely related to health and well-being. In sum, we believe that increased understanding of long-term outcomes after VLBW, and identification of areas and subgroups that are particularly vulnerable, will allow earlier recognition of potential problems and ultimately lead to improved prevention strategies.

Describing syntax with star-free regular expressions

Koskenniemen Äärellistilaisen leikkauskieliopin (FSIG) lauseopilliset rajoitteet ovat loogisesti vähemmän kompleksisia kuin mihin niissä käytetty formalismi vittaisi. Osoittautuukin että vaikka Voutilaisen (1994) englannin kielelle laatima FSIG-kuvaus käyttää useita säännöllisten lausekkeiden laajennuksia, kieliopin kuvaus kokonaisuutenaan palautuu äärelliseen yhdistelmään unionia, komplementtia ja peräkkäinasettelua. Tämä on oleellinen parannus ENGFSIG:n descriptiiviseen kompleksisuuteen. Tulos avaa ovia FSIG-kuvauksen loogisten ominaisuuksien syvemmälle analyysille ja FSIG kuvausten mahdolliselle optimoinnillle. Todistus sisältää uuden kaavan, joka kääntää Koskenniemien rajoiteoperaation ilman markkerimerkkejä.

Lewis Acid-Lewis Base Mediated Metal-Free Hydrogen Activation and Catalytic Hydrogenation

Organocatalysis, the use of organic molecules as catalysts, is attracting increasing attention as one of the most modern and rapidly growing areas of organic chemistry, with countless research groups in both academia and the pharmaceutical industry around the world working on this subject. The literature review of this thesis mainly focuses on metal-free systems for hydrogen activation and organocatalytic reduction. Since these research topics are relatively new, the literature review also highlights the basic principles of the use of Lewis acid-Lewis base pairs, which do not react irreversibly with each other, as a trap for small molecules. The experimental section progresses from the first observation of the facile heterolytical cleavage of hydrogen gas by amines and B(C6F5)3 to highly active non-metal catalysts for both enantioselective and racemic hydrogenation of unsaturated nitrogen-containing compounds. Moreover, detailed studies of structure-reactivity relationships of these systems by X-ray, neutron diffraction, NMR methods and quantum chemical calculations were performed to gain further insight into the mechanism of hydrogen activation and hydrogenation by boron-nitrogen compounds.

Immunochemical analysis of prolamins in gluten-free foods

People with coeliac disease have to maintain a gluten-free diet, which means excluding wheat, barley and rye prolamin proteins from their diet. Immunochemical methods are used to analyse the harmful proteins and to control the purity of gluten-free foods. In this thesis, the behaviour of prolamins in immunological gluten assays and with different prolamin-specific antibodies was examined. The immunoassays were also used to detect residual rye prolamins in sourdough systems after enzymatic hydrolysis and wheat prolamins after deamidation. The aim was to characterize the ability of the gluten analysis assays to quantify different prolamins in varying matrices in order to improve the accuracy of the assays. Prolamin groups of cereals consist of a complex mixture of proteins that vary in their size and amino acid sequences. Two common characteristics distinguish prolamins from other cereal proteins. Firstly, they are soluble in aqueous alcohols, and secondly, most of the prolamins are mainly formed from repetitive amino acid sequences containing high amounts of proline and glutamine. The diversity among prolamin proteins sets high requirements for their quantification. In the present study, prolamin contents were evaluated using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays based on ω- and R5 antibodies. In addition, assays based on A1 and G12 antibodies were used to examine the effect of deamidation on prolamin proteins. The prolamin compositions and the cross-reactivity of antibodies with prolamin groups were evaluated with electrophoretic separation and Western blotting. The results of this thesis research demonstrate that the currently used gluten analysis methods are not able to accurately quantify barley prolamins, especially when hydrolysed or mixed in oats. However, more precise results can be obtained when the standard more closely matches the sample proteins, as demonstrated with barley prolamin standards. The study also revealed that all of the harmful prolamins, i.e. wheat, barley and rye prolamins, are most efficiently extracted with 40% 1-propanol containing 1% dithiothreitol at 50 °C. The extractability of barley and rye prolamins was considerably higher with 40% 1-propanol than with 60% ethanol, which is typically used for prolamin extraction. The prolamin levels of rye were lowered by 99.5% from the original levels when an enzyme-active rye-malt sourdough system was used for prolamin degradation. Such extensive degradation of rye prolamins suggest the use of sourdough as a part of gluten-free baking. Deamidation increases the diversity of prolamins and improves their solubility and ability to form structures such as emulsions and foams. Deamidation changes the protein structure, which has consequences for antibody recognition in gluten analysis. According to the resuts of the present work, the analysis methods were not able to quantify wheat gluten after deamidation except at very high concentrations. Consequently, deamidated gluten peptides can exist in food products and remain undetected, and thus cause a risk for people with gluten intolerance. The results of this thesis demonstrate that current gluten analysis methods cannot accurately quantify prolamins in all food matrices. New information on the prolamins of rye and barley in addition to wheat prolamins is also provided in this thesis, which is essential for improving gluten analysis methods so that they can more accurately quantify prolamins from harmful cereals.

The German Military Entrepreneur Ernst von Mansfeld and His Conduct of Asymmetrical Warfare in the Thirty Years War

The dissertation examines aspects of asymmetrical warfare in the war-making of the German military entrepreneur Ernst von Mansfeld during his involvement in the Thirty Years War. Due to the nature of the inquiry, which combines history with military-political theory, the methodological approach of the dissertation is interdisciplinary. The theoretical framework used is that of asymmetrical warfare. The primary sources used in the dissertation are mostly political pamphlets and newsletters. Other sources include letters, documents, and contemporaneous chronicles. The secondary sources are divided into two categories, literature on the history of the Thirty Years War and textbooks covering the theory of asymmetrical warfare. The first category includes biographical works on Ernst von Mansfeld, as well as general histories of the Thirty Years War and seventeenth-century warfare. The second category combines military theory and political science. The structure of the dissertation consists of eight lead chapters, including an introduction and conclusion. The introduction covers the theoretical approach and aims of the dissertation, and provides a brief overlook of the sources and previous research on Ernst von Mansfeld and asymmetrical warfare in the Thirty Years War. The second chapter covers aspects of Mansfeld s asymmetrical warfare from the perspective of operational art. The third chapter investigates the illegal and immoral aspects of Mansfeld s war-making. The fourth chapter compares the differing methods by which Mansfeld and his enemies raised and financed their armies. The fifth chapter investigates Mansfeld s involvement in indirect warfare. The sixth chapter presents Mansfeld as an object and an agent of image and information war. The seventh chapter looks into the counter-reactions, which Mansfeld s asymmetrical warfare provoked from his enemies. The eighth chapter offers a conclusion of the findings. The dissertation argues that asymmetrical warfare presented itself in all the aforementioned areas of Mansfeld s conduct during the Thirty Years War. The operational asymmetry arose from the freedom of movement that Mansfeld enjoyed, while his enemies were constrained by the limits of positional warfare. As a non-state operator Mansfeld was also free to flout the rules of seventeenth-century warfare, which his enemies could not do with equal ease. The raising and financing of military forces was another source of asymmetry, because the nature of early seventeenth-century warfare favoured private military entrepreneurs rather than embryonic fiscal-military states. The dissertation also argues that other powers fought their own asymmetrical and indirect wars against the Habsburgs through Mansfeld s agency. Image and information were asymmetrical weapons, which were both aimed against Mansfeld and utilized by him. Finally, Mansfeld s asymmetrical threat forced the Habsburgs to adapt to his methods, which ultimately lead to the formation of a subcontracted Imperial Army under the management and leadership of Albrecht von Wallenstein. Therefore Mansfeld s asymmetrical warfare ultimately paved way for the kind of state-monopolized, organised, and symmetrical warfare that has prevailed from 1648 onwards. The conclusion is that Mansfeld s conduct in the Thirty Years War matched the criteria for asymmetrical warfare. While traditional historiography treated Mansfeld as an anomaly in the age of European state formation, his asymmetrical warfare has begun to bear resemblance to the contemporary conflicts, where nation states no longer hold the monopoly of violence.

Lumettoman maan routaolojen mallintaminen ja ennustettavuus muuttuvassa ilmastossa

Raportissa on arvioitu ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutusta Suomen maaperän talviaikaiseen jäätymiseen lämpösummien perusteella. Laskelmat kuvaavat roudan paksuutta nimenomaisesti lumettomilla alueilla, esimerkiksi teillä, joilta satanut lumi aurataan pois. Luonnossa lämpöä eristävän lumipeitteen alla routaa on ohuemmin kuin tällaisilla lumettomilla alueilla. Toisaalta luonnollisessa ympäristössä paikalliset erot korostuvat johtuen mm. maalajeista ja kasvillisuudesta. Roudan paksuudet laskettiin ensin perusjakson 1971–2000 ilmasto-oloissa talviaikaisten säähavaintotietoihin pohjautuvien lämpötilojen perusteella. Sen jälkeen laskelmat toistettiin kolmelle tulevalle ajanjaksolle (2010–2039, 2040–2069 ja 2070–2099) kohottamalla lämpötiloja ilmastonmuutosmallien ennustamalla tavalla. Laskelman pohjana käytettiin 19 ilmastomallin A1B-skenaarioajojen keskimäärin simuloimaa lämpötilan muutosta. Tulosten herkkyyden arvioimiseksi joitakin laskelmia tehtiin myös tätä selvästi heikompaa ja voimakkaampaa lämpenemisarviota käyttäen. A1B-skenaarion mukaisen lämpötilan nousun toteutuessa nykyisiä mallituloksia vastaavasti routakerros ohenee sadan vuoden aikana Pohjois-Suomessa 30–40 %, suuressa osassa maan keski- ja eteläosissa 50–70 %. Jo lähivuosikymmeninä roudan ennustetaan ohentuvan 10–30 %, saaristossa enemmän. Mikäli lämpeneminen toteutuisi voimakkaimman tarkastellun vaihtoehdon mukaisesti, roudan syvyys pienenisi tätäkin enemmän. Roudan paksuuden vuosienvälistä vaihtelua ja sen muuttumista tulevaisuudessa pyrittiin myös arvioimaan. Leutoina talvina routa ohenee enemmän kuin normaaleina tai ankarina pakkastalvina. Päivittäistä sään vaihtelua simuloineen säägeneraattorin tuottamassa aineistoissa esiintyi kuitenkin liian vähän hyvin alhaisia ja hyvin korkeita lämpötiloja. Siksi näitten lämpötilatietojen pohjalta laskettu roudan paksuuskin ilmeisesti vaihtelee liian vähän vuodesta toiseen. Kelirikkotilanteita voi esiintyä myös kesken routakauden, jos useamman päivän suojasää ja samanaikainen runsas vesisade pääsevät sulattamaan maata. Tällaiset routakauden aikana sattuvat säätilat näyttävätkin yleistyvän lähivuosikymmeninä. Vuosisadan loppua kohti ne sen sijaan maan eteläosissa jälleen vähenevät, koska routakausi lyhenee oleellisesti. Tulevia vuosikymmeniä koskevien ilmastonmuutosennusteiden ohella routaa ja kelirikon esiintymistä on periaatteessa mahdollista ennustaa myös lähiaikojen sääennusteita hyödyntäen. Pitkät, viikkojen tai kuukausien mittaiset sääennusteet eivät tosin ole ainakaan vielä erityisen luotettavia, mutta myös lyhyemmistä ennusteista voisi olla hyötyä mm. tienpitoa suunniteltaessa.