Essays on Risk Modeling. Applications to Portfolio and Risk Management (summary section only)

In this thesis we deal with the concept of risk. The objective is to bring together and conclude on some normative information regarding quantitative portfolio management and risk assessment. The first essay concentrates on return dependency. We propose an algorithm for classifying markets into rising and falling. Given the algorithm, we derive a statistic: the Trend Switch Probability, for detection of long-term return dependency in the first moment. The empirical results suggest that the Trend Switch Probability is robust over various volatility specifications. The serial dependency in bear and bull markets behaves however differently. It is strongly positive in rising market whereas in bear markets it is closer to a random walk. Realized volatility, a technique for estimating volatility from high frequency data, is investigated in essays two and three. In the second essay we find, when measuring realized variance on a set of German stocks, that the second moment dependency structure is highly unstable and changes randomly. Results also suggest that volatility is non-stationary from time to time. In the third essay we examine the impact from market microstructure on the error between estimated realized volatility and the volatility of the underlying process. With simulation-based techniques we show that autocorrelation in returns leads to biased variance estimates and that lower sampling frequency and non-constant volatility increases the error variation between the estimated variance and the variance of the underlying process. From these essays we can conclude that volatility is not easily estimated, even from high frequency data. It is neither very well behaved in terms of stability nor dependency over time. Based on these observations, we would recommend the use of simple, transparent methods that are likely to be more robust over differing volatility regimes than models with a complex parameter universe. In analyzing long-term return dependency in the first moment we find that the Trend Switch Probability is a robust estimator. This is an interesting area for further research, with important implications for active asset allocation.

Modeling Nonlinearities and Asymmetries in Asset Pricing

Financial time series tend to behave in a manner that is not directly drawn from a normal distribution. Asymmetries and nonlinearities are usually seen and these characteristics need to be taken into account. To make forecasts and predictions of future return and risk is rather complicated. The existing models for predicting risk are of help to a certain degree, but the complexity in financial time series data makes it difficult. The introduction of nonlinearities and asymmetries for the purpose of better models and forecasts regarding both mean and variance is supported by the essays in this dissertation. Linear and nonlinear models are consequently introduced in this dissertation. The advantages of nonlinear models are that they can take into account asymmetries. Asymmetric patterns usually mean that large negative returns appear more often than positive returns of the same magnitude. This goes hand in hand with the fact that negative returns are associated with higher risk than in the case where positive returns of the same magnitude are observed. The reason why these models are of high importance lies in the ability to make the best possible estimations and predictions of future returns and for predicting risk.

The Evolving Roles of the Human Resource Function: Understanding Role Changes in the Context of Large-Scale Mergers

The human resource (HR) function is under pressure both to change roles and to play a large variety of roles. Questions of change and development in the HR function become particularly interesting in the context of mergers and acquisitions when two corporations are integrated. The purpose of the thesis is to examine the roles played by the HR function in the context of large-scale mergers and thus to understand what happens to the HR function in such change environments, and to shed light on the underlying factors that influence changes in the HR function. To achieve this goal, the study seeks first to identify the roles played by the HR function before and after the merger, and second, to identify the factors that affect the roles played by the HR function. It adopts a qualitative case study approach including ten focal case organisations (mergers) and four matching cases (non-mergers). The sample consists of large corporations originating from either Finland or Sweden. HR directors and members of the top management teams within the case organisations were interviewed. The study suggests that changes occur within the HR function, and that the trend is for the HR function to become increasingly strategic. However, the HR function was found to play strategic roles only when the HR administration ran smoothly. The study also suggests that the HR function has become more versatile. An HR function that was perceived to be mainly administrative before the merger is likely after the merger to perform some strategically important activities in addition to the administrative ones. Significant changes in the roles played by the HR function were observed in some of the case corporations. This finding suggests that the merger integration process is a window of opportunity for the HR function. HR functions that take a proactive and leading role during the integration process might expand the number of roles played and move from being an administrator before the merger to also being a business partner after integration. The majority of the HR functions studied remained mainly reactive during the organisational change process and although the evidence showed that they moved towards strategic tasks, the intra-functional changes remained comparatively small in these organisations. The study presents a new model that illustrates the impact of the relationship between the top management team and the HR function on the role of the HR function. The expectations held by the top management team for the HR function and the performance of the HR function were found to interact. On a dimension reaching from tactical to strategic, HR performance is likely to correspond to the expectations held by top management.

Examining and Modeling the Dynamics of the Volatility Surface

The objective of this paper is to investigate and model the characteristics of the prevailing volatility smiles and surfaces on the DAX- and ESX-index options markets. Continuing on the trend of Implied Volatility Functions, the Standardized Log-Moneyness model is introduced and fitted to historical data. The model replaces the constant volatility parameter of the Black & Scholes pricing model with a matrix of volatilities with respect to moneyness and maturity and is tested out-of-sample. Considering the dynamics, the results show support for the hypotheses put forward in this study, implying that the smile increases in magnitude when maturity and ATM volatility decreases and that there is a negative/positive correlation between a change in the underlying asset/time to maturity and implied ATM volatility. Further, the Standardized Log-Moneyness model indicates an improvement to pricing accuracy compared to previous Implied Volatility Function models, however indicating that the parameters of the models are to be re-estimated continuously for the models to fully capture the changing dynamics of the volatility smiles.

Chemicals risk modeling : toxic effect risks imposed on aquatic organisms by industrial activity

Yhteenveto: Kemikaalien teollisesta käsittelystä vesieliöille aiheutuvien riskien arviointi mallin avulla.