Bayesian analysis of community dynamics

Elucidating the mechanisms responsible for the patterns of species abundance, diversity, and distribution within and across ecological systems is a fundamental research focus in ecology. Species abundance patterns are shaped in a convoluted way by interplays between inter-/intra-specific interactions, environmental forcing, demographic stochasticity, and dispersal. Comprehensive models and suitable inferential and computational tools for teasing out these different factors are quite limited, even though such tools are critically needed to guide the implementation of management and conservation strategies, the efficacy of which rests on a realistic evaluation of the underlying mechanisms. This is even more so in the prevailing context of concerns over climate change progress and its potential impacts on ecosystems. This thesis utilized the flexible hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework in combination with the computer intensive methods known as Markov chain Monte Carlo, to develop methodologies for identifying and evaluating the factors that control the structure and dynamics of ecological communities. These methodologies were used to analyze data from a range of taxa: macro-moths (Lepidoptera), fish, crustaceans, birds, and rodents. Environmental stochasticity emerged as the most important driver of community dynamics, followed by density dependent regulation; the influence of inter-specific interactions on community-level variances was broadly minor. This thesis contributes to the understanding of the mechanisms underlying the structure and dynamics of ecological communities, by showing directly that environmental fluctuations rather than inter-specific competition dominate the dynamics of several systems. This finding emphasizes the need to better understand how species are affected by the environment and acknowledge species differences in their responses to environmental heterogeneity, if we are to effectively model and predict their dynamics (e.g. for management and conservation purposes). The thesis also proposes a model-based approach to integrating the niche and neutral perspectives on community structure and dynamics, making it possible for the relative importance of each category of factors to be evaluated in light of field data.

The Most Probable Bayesian Network and Beyond

This doctoral dissertation introduces an algorithm for constructing the most probable Bayesian network from data for small domains. The algorithm is used to show that a popular goodness criterion for the Bayesian networks has a severe sensitivity problem. The dissertation then proposes an information theoretic criterion that avoids the problem.

Clinical Studies on Epidural and Spinal Postoperative Analgesia : With Special Reference to Continuous Techniques of Administration and Adjuvant Drugs

Continuous epidural analgesia (CEA) and continuous spinal postoperative analgesia (CSPA) provided by a mixture of local anaesthetic and opioid are widely used for postoperative pain relief. E.g., with the introduction of so-called microcatheters, CSPA found its way particularly in orthopaedic surgery. These techniques, however, may be associated with dose-dependent side-effects as hypotension, weakness in the legs, and nausea and vomiting. At times, they may fail to offer sufficient analgesia, e.g., because of a misplaced catheter. The correct position of an epidural catheter might be confirmed by the supposedly easy and reliable epidural stimulation test (EST). The aims of this thesis were to determine a) whether the efficacy, tolerability, and reliability of CEA might be improved by adding the α2-adrenergic agonists adrenaline and clonidine to CEA, and by the repeated use of EST during CEA; and, b) the feasibility of CSPA given through a microcatheter after vascular surgery. Studies I IV were double-blinded, randomized, and controlled trials; Study V was of a diagnostic, prospective nature. Patients underwent arterial bypass surgery of the legs (I, n=50; IV, n=46), total knee arthroplasty (II, n=70; III, n=72), and abdominal surgery or thoracotomy (V, n=30). Postoperative lumbar CEA consisted of regular mixtures of ropivacaine and fentanyl either without or with adrenaline (2 µg/ml (I) and 4 µg/ml (II)) and clonidine (2 µg/ml (III)). CSPA (IV) was given through a microcatheter (28G) and contained either ropivacaine (max. 2 mg/h) or a mixture of ropivacaine (max. 1 mg/h) and morphine (max. 8 µg/h). Epidural catheter tip position (V) was evaluated both by EST at the moment of catheter placement and several times during CEA, and by epidurography as reference diagnostic test. CEA and CSPA were administered for 24 or 48 h. Study parameters included pain scores assessed with a visual analogue scale, requirements of rescue pain medication, vital signs, and side-effects. Adrenaline (I and II) had no beneficial influence as regards the efficacy or tolerability of CEA. The total amounts of epidurally-infused drugs were even increased in the adrenaline group in Study II (p=0.02, RM ANOVA). Clonidine (III) augmented pain relief with lowered amounts of epidurally infused drugs (p=0.01, RM ANOVA) and reduced need for rescue oxycodone given i.m. (p=0.027, MW-U; median difference 3 mg (95% CI 0 7 mg)). Clonidine did not contribute to sedation and its influence on haemodynamics was minimal. CSPA (IV) provided satisfactory pain relief with only limited blockade of the legs (no inter-group differences). EST (V) was often related to technical problems and difficulties of interpretation, e.g., it failed to identify the four patients whose catheters were outside the spinal canal already at the time of catheter placement. As adjuvants to lumbar CEA, clonidine only slightly improved pain relief, while adrenaline did not provide any benefit. The role of EST applied at the time of epidural catheter placement or repeatedly during CEA remains open. The microcatheter CSPA technique appeared effective and reliable, but needs to be compared to routine CEA after peripheral arterial bypass surgery.

Modern computed tomography techniques in stroke management

Technological development of fast multi-sectional, helical computed tomography (CT) scanners has allowed computed tomography perfusion (CTp) and angiography (CTA) in evaluating acute ischemic stroke. This study focuses on new multidetector computed tomography techniques, namely whole-brain and first-pass CT perfusion plus CTA of carotid arteries. Whole-brain CTp data is acquired during slow infusion of contrast material to achieve constant contrast concentration in the cerebral vasculature. From these data quantitative maps are constructed of perfused cerebral blood volume (pCBV). The probability curve of cerebral infarction as a function of normalized pCBV was determined in patients with acute ischemic stroke. Normalized pCBV, expressed as a percentage of contralateral normal brain pCBV, was determined in the infarction core and in regions just inside and outside the boundary between infarcted and noninfarcted brain. Corresponding probabilities of infarction were 0.99, 0.96, and 0.11, R² was 0.73, and differences in perfusion between core and inner and outer bands were highly significant. Thus a probability of infarction curve can help predict the likelihood of infarction as a function of percentage normalized pCBV. First-pass CT perfusion is based on continuous cine imaging over a selected brain area during a bolus injection of contrast. During its first passage, contrast material compartmentalizes in the intravascular space, resulting in transient tissue enhancement. Functional maps such as cerebral blood flow (CBF), and volume (CBV), and mean transit time (MTT) are then constructed. We compared the effects of three different iodine concentrations (300, 350, or 400 mg/mL) on peak enhancement of normal brain tissue and artery and vein, stratified by region-of-interest (ROI) location, in 102 patients within 3 hours of stroke onset. A monotonic increasing peak opacification was evident at all ROI locations, suggesting that CTp evaluation of patients with acute stroke is best performed with the highest available concentration of contrast agent. In another study we investigated whether lesion volumes on CBV, CBF, and MTT maps within 3 hours of stroke onset predict final infarct volume, and whether all these parameters are needed for triage to intravenous recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (IV-rtPA). The effect of IV-rtPA on the affected brain by measuring salvaged tissue volume in patients receiving IV-rtPA and in controls was investigated also. CBV lesion volume did not necessarily represent dead tissue. MTT lesion volume alone can serve to identify the upper size limit of the abnormally perfused brain, and those with IV-rtPA salvaged more brain than did controls. Carotid CTA was compared with carotid DSA in grading of stenosis in patients with stroke symptoms. In CTA, the grade of stenosis was determined by means of axial source and maximum intensity projection (MIP) images as well as a semiautomatic vessel analysis. CTA provides an adequate, less invasive alternative to conventional DSA, although tending to underestimate clinically relevant grades of stenosis.

Noninvasive techniques in assessing coronary artery disease

Conventional invasive coronary angiography is the clinical gold standard for detecting of coronary artery stenoses. Noninvasive multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) in combination with retrospective ECG gating has recently been shown to permit visualization of the coronary artery lumen and detection of coronary artery stenoses. Single photon emission tomography (SPECT) perfusion imaging has been considered the reference method for evaluation of nonviable myocardium, but magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) can accurately depict structure, function, effusion, and myocardial viability, with an overall capacity unmatched by any other single imaging modality. Magnetocardiography (MCG) provides noninvasively information about myocardial excitation propagation and repolarization without the use of electrodes. This evolving technique may be considered the magnetic equivalent to electrocardiography. The aim of the present series of studies was to evaluate changes in the myocardium assessed with SPECT and MRI caused by coronary artery disease, examine the capability of multidetector computed tomography coronary angiography (MDCT-CA) to detect significant stenoses in the coronary arteries, and MCG to assess remote myocardial infarctions. Our study showed that in severe, progressing coronary artery disease laser treatment does not improve global left ventricular function or myocardial perfusion, but it does preserve systolic wall thickening in fixed defects (scar). It also prevents changes from ischemic myocardial regions to scar. The MCG repolarization variables are informative in remote myocardial infarction, and may perform as well as the conventional QRS criteria in detection of healed myocardial infarction. These STT abnormalities are more pronounced in patients with Q-wave infarction than in patients with non-Q-wave infarctions. MDCT-CA had a sensitivity of 82%, a specificity of 94%, a positive predictive value of 79%, and a negative predictive value of 95% for stenoses over 50% in the main coronary arteries as compared with conventional coronary angiography in patients with known coronary artery disease. Left ventricular wall dysfunction, perfusion defects, and infarctions were detected in 50-78% of sectors assigned to calcifications or stenoses, but also in sectors supplied by normally perfused coronary arteries. Our study showed a low sensitivity (sensitivity 63%) in detecting obstructive coronary artery disease assessed by MDCT in patients with severe aortic stenosis. Massive calcifications complicated correct assessment of the lumen of coronary arteries.