Conditional Moments in Asset Pricing

A better understanding of stock price changes is important in guiding many economic activities. Since prices often do not change without good reasons, searching for related explanatory variables has involved many enthusiasts. This book seeks answers from prices per se by relating price changes to their conditional moments. This is based on the belief that prices are the products of a complex psychological and economic process and their conditional moments derive ultimately from these psychological and economic shocks. Utilizing information about conditional moments hence makes it an attractive alternative to using other selective financial variables in explaining price changes. The first paper examines the relation between the conditional mean and the conditional variance using information about moments in three types of conditional distributions; it finds that the significance of the estimated mean and variance ratio can be affected by the assumed distributions and the time variations in skewness. The second paper decomposes the conditional industry volatility into a concurrent market component and an industry specific component; it finds that market volatility is on average responsible for a rather small share of total industry volatility — 6 to 9 percent in UK and 2 to 3 percent in Germany. The third paper looks at the heteroskedasticity in stock returns through an ARCH process supplemented with a set of conditioning information variables; it finds that the heteroskedasticity in stock returns allows for several forms of heteroskedasticity that include deterministic changes in variances due to seasonal factors, random adjustments in variances due to market and macro factors, and ARCH processes with past information. The fourth paper examines the role of higher moments — especially skewness and kurtosis — in determining the expected returns; it finds that total skewness and total kurtosis are more relevant non-beta risk measures and that they are costly to be diversified due either to the possible eliminations of their desirable parts or to the unsustainability of diversification strategies based on them.

Essays on Financial Analyst Forecasts and Recommendations

The trade of the financial analyst is currently a much-debated issue in today’s media. As a large part of the investment analysis is conducted under the broker firms’ regime, the incentives of the financial analyst and the investor do not always align. The broker firm’s commercial incentives may be to maximise its commission from securities trading and underwriting fees. The purpose of this thesis is to extend our understanding of the work of a financial analyst, the incentives he faces and how these affect his actions. The first essay investigates how the economic significance of the coverage of a particular firm impacts the analysts’ accuracy of estimation. The hypothesis is that analysts put more effort in analysing firms with a relatively higher trading volume, as these firms usually yield higher commissions. The second essay investigates how analysts interpret new financial statement information. The essay shows that analysts underreact or overreact to prior reported earnings, depending on the short-term pattern in reported earnings. The third essay investigates the possible investment value in Finnish stock recommendations, issued by sell side analysts. It is established that consensus recommendations issued on Finnish stocks contain investment value. Further, the investment value in consensus recommendations improves significantly through the exclusion of recommendations issued by banks. The fourth essay investigates investors’ behaviour prior to financial analysts’ earnings forecast revisions. Lately, the financial press have reported cases were financial analysts warn their preferred clients of possible earnings forecast revisions. However, in the light of the empirical results, it appears that the problem of analysts leaking information to some selected customers does not appear systematically on the Finnish stock market.

Three Essays on the Volatility of Finnish Stock Returns (summary section only)

First, in Essay 1, we test whether it is possible to forecast Finnish Options Index return volatility by examining the out-of-sample predictive ability of several common volatility models with alternative well-known methods; and find additional evidence for the predictability of volatility and for the superiority of the more complicated models over the simpler ones. Secondly, in Essay 2, the aggregated volatility of stocks listed on the Helsinki Stock Exchange is decomposed into a market, industry-and firm-level component, and it is found that firm-level (i.e., idiosyncratic) volatility has increased in time, is more substantial than the two former, predicts GDP growth, moves countercyclically and as well as the other components is persistent. Thirdly, in Essay 3, we are among the first in the literature to seek for firm-specific determinants of idiosyncratic volatility in a multivariate setting, and find for the cross-section of stocks listed on the Helsinki Stock Exchange that industrial focus, trading volume, and block ownership, are positively associated with idiosyncratic volatility estimates––obtained from both the CAPM and the Fama and French three-factor model with local and international benchmark portfolios––whereas a negative relation holds between firm age as well as size and idiosyncratic volatility.

The Relationship Between Liquidity, Trading Activity and Return - Studies of the Finnish and Swedish Stock Markets

Liquidity, or how easy an investment is to buy or sell, is becoming increasingly important for financial market participants. The objective of this dissertation is to contribute to the understanding of how liquidity affects financial markets. The first essays analyze the actions taken by underwriters immediately after listing to improve liquidity of IPO stock. To estimate the impact of underwriter activity on the pricing of the IPOs, the order book during the first weeks of trading in the IPO stock is studied. Evidence of stabilization and liquidity enhancing activities by underwriters is found. The second half of the dissertation is concerned with the daily trading of stocks where liquidity may be impacted by policy issues such as changes in taxes or exchange fees and by opening the access to the markets for foreign investors. The desirability of a transaction tax on securities trading is addressed. An increase in transaction tax is found to cause lower prices and higher volatility. In the last essay the objective is to determine if the liquidity of a security has an impact on the return investors require. The results support the notion that returns are negatively correlated to liquidity.

Short-term Price Behavior and the Effect of Foreign Investors in Finnish Equity Markets (summary section only)

As globalization and capital free movement has increased, so has interest in the effects of that global money flow, especially during financial crises. The concern has been that large global money flows will affect the pricing of small local markets by causing, in particular, overreaction. The purpose of this thesis is to contribute to the body of work concerning short-term under- and overreaction and the short-term effects of foreign investment flow in the small Finnish equity markets. This thesis also compares foreign execution return to domestic execution return. This study’s results indicate that short-term under- and overreaction occurs in domestic-buy portfolios (domestic net buying) rather than in foreign-buy portfolios. This under- and overreaction, however, is not economically meaningful after controlling for the bid-ask bounce effect. Based on this finding, one can conclude that foreign investors do not have a destabilizing effect in the short-term in the Finnish markets. Foreign activity affects short-term returns. When foreign investors are net buyers (sellers) there are positive (negative) market adjusted returns. Literature related to nationality and institutional effect leads us to expect these kind of results. These foreign flows are persistent at a 5 % to 21 % level and the persistence of foreign buy flow is higher than the foreign sell flow. Foreign daily trading execution is worse than domestic execution. Literature which quantifies foreign investors as liquidity demanders and literature related to front-running leads us to expect poorer foreign execution than domestic execution.

Inference on Cointegration in Vector Autoregressive Models (summary section only)

In the thesis we consider inference for cointegration in vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The thesis consists of an introduction and four papers. The first paper proposes a new test for cointegration in VAR models that is directly based on the eigenvalues of the least squares (LS) estimate of the autoregressive matrix. In the second paper we compare a small sample correction for the likelihood ratio (LR) test of cointegrating rank and the bootstrap. The simulation experiments show that the bootstrap works very well in practice and dominates the correction factor. The tests are applied to international stock prices data, and the .nite sample performance of the tests are investigated by simulating the data. The third paper studies the demand for money in Sweden 1970—2000 using the I(2) model. In the fourth paper we re-examine the evidence of cointegration between international stock prices. The paper shows that some of the previous empirical results can be explained by the small-sample bias and size distortion of Johansen’s LR tests for cointegration. In all papers we work with two data sets. The first data set is a Swedish money demand data set with observations on the money stock, the consumer price index, gross domestic product (GDP), the short-term interest rate and the long-term interest rate. The data are quarterly and the sample period is 1970(1)—2000(1). The second data set consists of month-end stock market index observations for Finland, France, Germany, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States from 1980(1) to 1997(2). Both data sets are typical of the sample sizes encountered in economic data, and the applications illustrate the usefulness of the models and tests discussed in the thesis.

On the Benefits and Problems of the Object-Oriented Paradigm including a Finnish Study

Several researchers are of the opinion that there are many benefits in using the object-oriented paradigm in information systems development. If the object-oriented paradigm is used, the development of information systems may, for example, be faster and more efficient. On the other hand, there are also several problems with the paradigm. For example, it is often considered complex, it is often difficult to make use of the reuse concept and it is still immature in some areas. Although there are several interesting features in the object-oriented paradigm, there is still little comprehensive knowledge of the benefits and problems associated with it. The objective of the following study was to investigate and to gain more understanding of the benefits and problems of the object-oriented paradigm. A review of previous studies was made and twelve benefits and twelve problems were established. These benefits and problems were then analysed, studied and discussed. Further a survey and some case studies were made in order to get some knowledge on what benefits and problems with the object-oriented paradigm Finnish software companies had experienced. One hundred and four companies answered the survey that was sent to all Finnish software companies with five or more employees. The case studies were made with six large Finnish software companies. The major finding was that Finnish software companies were exceptionally positive towards the object-oriented information systems development and had experienced very few of the proposed problems. Finally two models for further research were developed. The first model presents connections between benefits and the second between problems.

Essays on Managing Knowledge and Work Related Wellbeing

This study explores the relationship between Intellectual Capital and Maintenance of Work Ability. Intellectual Capital is the central framework for analysing the increasing knowledge-intensiveness of business life. It is characteristic of Intellectual Capital that the intersection of human capital, internal structures and external structures is essential. Maintenance of Work Ability, on the other hand, has been the leading paradigm for Finnish occupational health and safety activities since the late 1980s. It is also a holistic approach that emphasises the interdependence of competence, work community, work environment and health as the key to work-related wellbeing. This thesis consists of five essays that scrutinise the focal phenomena both theoretically and empirically. The conceptual model that results from the first research essay provides a general framework for the whole thesis. The case study in the second essay supports a division of intangible assets into generative and commercially exploitable intangibles introduced in the first essay and further into the primary and secondary dimension of generative intangibles. Further scrutiny of the interaction of generative intangible assets in essay three reveals that employees’ wellbeing enhances the readiness to contribute to the knowledge creation process. The fourth essay shows that the MWA framework could benefit knowledge-intensive work but this would require a different approach than has been commonly adopted in Finland. In essay five, deeper analysis of the MWA framework shows that its potential results from comprehensive support of the functioning of an organisation. The general conclusion of this thesis is that organisations must take care of their employees’ wellbeing in order to secure innovativeness that is the key to surviving in today’s competitive business environment.

Leader - Follower Relations In An Intercultural Chinese Context - Personal, Interpersonal and Behavioural Influences and Impact on Work Contribution

The successful interaction between leaders and their followers is central to the overall functioning of a company. The increasingly multinational nature of modern business and the resulting multicultural and increasingly heterogeneous workforce imposes specific challenges to the development of high-quality work relationships. The Western multinational companies that have started operations in China are facing these challenges. This study examines the quality of leader-follower relationships between Western expatriate leaders and their Chinese followers as well as between Chinese leaders and their Chinese followers in Western-owned subsidiaries in China. The focus is on the influence of personal, interpersonal and behavioural factors (personality, values, cultural knowledge, perceived and actual similarity, interactional justice, and follower performance) and the work-related implications of these relationships (job attitudes and organisational citizenship behaviour). One interesting finding of this study is that Chinese followers have higher perceptions of their Western than their Chinese leaders. The results also indicate that Chinese and Western leaders’ perceptions of their followers are not influenced favourably by the same follower characteristics. In a similar vein, Chinese followers value different traits in Western versus Chinese leaders. These results, as well as the numerous more specific findings of the study, have practical implications for international human resource management and areas such as selection, placement and training. Due to the different effect of personal and interpersonal factors across groups, it is difficult to achieve the “perfect match” between leader and follower characteristics that simultaneously contribute to high-quality relationships for Chinese and Western leaders as well as for followers. However, the results indicate that the ability of organisations to enhance the quality of leader-follower relations by selecting and matching people with suitable characteristics may provide an effective means for organisations to increase positive job attitudes and hence influence work-related outcomes.

A Model for Creating Strategic Alliances. A Study of Inter-firm Cooperation in the North European ICT Sector

In this study, it is argued that the view on alliance creation presented in the current academic literature is limited, and that using a learning approach helps to explain the dynamic nature of alliance creation. The cases in this study suggest that a wealth of inefficiency elements can be found in alliance creation. These elements can further be divided into categories, which help explain the dynamics of alliance creation. The categories –combined with two models brought forward by the study– suggest that inefficiency can be avoided through learning during the creation process. Some elements are especially central to this argumentation. First, the elements related to the clarity and acceptance of the strategy of the company, the potential lack of an alliance strategy and the elements related to changes in the strategic context. Second, the elements related to the length of the alliance creation processes and the problems a long process entails. It is further suggested that the different inefficiency elements may create a situation, where the alliance creation process is –sequentially and successfully– followed to the end, but where the different inefficiencies create a situation where the results are not aligned with the strategic intent. The proposed solution is to monitor and assess the risk for inefficiency elements during the alliance creation process. The learning, which occurs during the alliance creation process as a result of the monitoring, can then lead to realignments in the process. This study proposes a model to mitigate the risk related to the inefficiencies. The model emphasizes creating an understanding of the other alliance partner’s business, creating a shared vision, using pilot cooperation and building trust within the process. An analytical approach to assessing the benefits of trust is also central in this view. The alliance creation approach suggested by this study, which emphasizes trust and pilot cooperation, is further critically reviewed against contracting as a way to create alliances.

Personnel Managers and Crisis Situations. Emotion-handling Strategies

This study focuses on personnel managers in crisis situations. The interviewed personnel managers referred to emotions as a central element to be dealt with in a crisis. However, until recently, the exploration of emotions in organisational life has been de-emphasised or ignored. This study aims to bring to the surface aspects of personnel work that have so far been neglected or remained invisible. It specifically examines how personnel managers handle employees’ and their own emotions in a crisis. Based on the interviews, a number of emotional episodes were constructed. They describe the type and context of the crisis and the person(s) whose emotions are handled. The main findings of the study are the five emotion-handling strategies that could be constructed from the data. The negotiation-like manner in which personnel managers handled emotions in crisis situations proved especially interesting. They were actually negotiating emotional value for their organisations. Further, they handled their own emotions within the frame of two logics of appropriateness labelled mothering and guide-following. The episodes described also enabled identification of the values enacted by the personnel managers in handling emotions. The study provides descriptive information on emotion handling, a current and relevant feature in the practice of personnel management. It seeks to offer a frame for developing practical principles that can be helpful in a crisis. It also offers the opportunity to consider a variety of difficult situations that personnel managers may confront in their work.

Knowledge Sharing in Multinational Corporations - A Social Captal Perspective (summary section only)

Multinational corporations (MNCs) are commonly perceived as networks of differentiated units, dependent for their competitive edge on the sharing of different kinds of internal resources. This ‘differentiated network’ view of the MNC strongly emphasizes the crucial role of interunit knowledge sharing, the topic of this thesis. The five essays presented here contribute to the research on interunit knowledge sharing in MNCs by focusing on the roles played by language, identity, and feedback seeking in the knowledge sharing process. While these factors have occasionally been brought up in previous research as potentially relevant for interunit knowledge sharing, they have so far been subject to limited empirical examination – an important omission which this thesis is an effort to redress. Furthermore, the treatment of the topic is anchored in a theoretical framework based on social capital. This perspective contributes to MNC research by providing a comprehensive framework for examining the significance of social relationships in interunit interaction. The findings can be summarized in two main points. Firstly, language skills and shared identity appear to promote the accumulation of interunit social capital. Secondly, high levels of interunit social capital seem to promote interunit knowledge sharing and feedback seeking. These observations raise a number of both theoretical and practical issues of considerable relevance for MNC management.

Knowledge Transfer within Western Multinationals' Subsidiary Units in China and Finland - The Impact of Headquarter Control Mechanisms, Subsidiary Location and Social Capital (summary section only)

It is suggested that the ability and practices of how the multinational corporation (MNC) manages knowledge transfer among its geographically dispersed subsidiary units are crucial for the building and development of firm competitive advantage. However, cross-border transfer of valuable organizational knowledge is likely to be problematic and laborious, especially within diversified and differentiated MNCs. Using data collected from 164 western multinational companies’ subsidiary units located in China and Finland, this study aims to investigate cross-border knowledge transfer within the MNC. It explores a number of factors that influence the transfer of knowledge among units in the differentiated MNC. The study consists of five individual papers. Paper 1 investigates a range of organizational mechanisms that may positively influence a subsidiary’s propensity to undertake knowledge transfers to other parts of the corporation. Paper 2 explores the impact of subsidiary location on the motivational dispositions of knowledge receiving units to value and accept knowledge from subsidiaries located in economically less advanced countries. Paper 3 examines the influence of social capital variables on knowledge transfer in dyadic relationships between foreign-owned subsidiaries and their sister and patent units. Paper 4 provides some initial insights into potentially different effects of trust and shared vision in intra-organizational vs. inter-organizational relationships. Using a case study setting, Paper 5 explores means and mechanisms used in transferring human resource management practices to Western MNCs’ business units in China from a cultural perspective. The results of the study show that MNC management through choices regarding organizational controls can encourage and enhance corporate-internal knowledge transfer. It also finds evidence that more knowledge is transferred from subsidiaries located in an industrialized country (e.g., Finland) than subsidiaries located in a developing country (e.g., China). While the study has highlighted the importance of social capital in promoting knowledge transfer, it has also uncovered some new findings that the effect of trust and shared vision may be contingent upon different contexts. Finally, in Paper 5, a number of mechanisms used in transferring selected HRM practices and competences to the Chinese business units have been identified. The findings suggest that cultural differences should be taken into consideration in the choice and use of different transfer mechanisms.

Hur höra tyst kunskap? Utveckling av en metod för studier av tyst kunnande

Det tysta kunnandet utgör en stor del av kunskapsresursen både hos oss som individer och i arbetsorganisationerna. Trots att vi omger oss med böcker, manualer och databaser, som alla är exempel på explicit kunskap, så är det ”den rätta känslan”, erfarenheten och våra färdigheter som avgör om och hur vi klarar av våra uppgifter. Dessa begrepp är alla relaterade till den tysta dimensionen av kunskap. En dimension som traditionellt karaktäriserats som abstrakt, individuell, omedveten, praktisk, erfarenhetsbaserad och framför allt svår att uttrycka. Alla dessa är karaktärsdrag som ställt speciella krav inom kunskapsforskning och -ledning. Resultatet av detta är att både forskning och ledning av det tysta kunnandet har åsidosatts till förmån för forskning och ledning av explicit kunskap. Ett bidragande problem har varit bristen på lämpliga metoder för att ur ett företagsekonomiskt perspektiv studera och leda tyst kunnande. Ett annat problem har varit oklarhet i begreppet tyst kunskap. Detta har lett till brist på förståelse och/eller missförstånd. För att råda bot på svårigheten att uttrycka vårt tysta kunnande har människan utvecklat olika begrepp som i vår vardagskommunikation symboliserar tyst kunnande. Begrepp som intuition, människokännedom, förhandlingsförmåga och kultur används vanligt och med dem uttrycker vi den tysta dimensionen av kunnande. Dessa begrepp utgör även grunden för den intervjumetod som utvecklats för att empiriskt studera eller i ledningssyfte kartlägga tyst kunnande. Metoden använder dessa ”Epitet för Tyst Kunskap” (ETK) som bas för stimuluskort-intervjuer. Intervjuer som visat sig öka möjligheten att utforska och kartlägga tyst kunnande i organisationer oberoende av om man är forskare eller företagsledare.